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Boeing (BA) Stock: Named Top Aerospace Pick for 2026 by Major Analyst
TLDR
- Bernstein elevates Boeing to top Aerospace & Defense selection for 2026 with price target of $298
- Production ramping up with 737 at 42 units monthly and 787 at 8 units monthly
- Firm forecasts free cash flow exceeding $11 billion by 2028 as production scales
- Current backlog so large that only half will be fulfilled by 2030 before new orders
- Defense division projected to achieve positive cash generation in 2027
Bernstein elevated Boeing to its premier Aerospace & Defense selection for 2026. The investment firm increased its price target to $298 from $277 while maintaining an Outperform rating.
Analysts led by Douglas Harned expressed growing confidence in Boeing’s recovery trajectory. The firm believes demand will outpace supply through the end of the decade for both Boeing and Airbus.
The $298 target represents 23% upside from the current trading price of $242.61. Shares recently touched a 52-week high of $247.40.
Boeing historically accelerates once investors trust production ramps. The company’s execution on key programs will be critical for stock performance going forward.
Production Rates Drive Optimism
Current production stands at 42 aircraft monthly for the 737 program. The 787 program produces 8 units per month.
These rates are expected to climb over the next five years. Bernstein anticipates improving margins and cash generation as output increases.
The backlog situation is remarkable. By 2030, Boeing will have delivered only half of existing 737 and 787 orders. This doesn’t account for new orders expected in coming years.
Fourth quarter concerns arose around cash flow. Delays in 777X certification and higher capital spending for facility expansion triggered a stock pullback.
Bernstein characterizes the dip as a buying opportunity. The 777X issues relate to timing rather than fundamental problems. The increased capital expenditure is required to address historically large backlogs.
Cash Flow Trajectory Improves
Management projects low single-digit billions in free cash flow for 2026. This guidance includes a $700 million headwind from a Department of Justice settlement.
The outer years look much stronger. Bernstein forecasts free cash flow above $11 billion in 2028 as inventories unwind and production rates accelerate.
Defense operations appear to be stabilizing after years of charges. The F-47 program win should energize Boeing Defense going forward.
The defense segment is projected to return to positive cash generation in 2027. This marks a turnaround after recent struggles.
Boeing Global Services maintains strong performance. High margins continue thanks to aftermarket demand and an expanding commercial mix.
Recent Performance Metrics
Boeing delivered 600 aircraft in 2025, up 72% from the prior year. This marked the highest delivery total since 2018.
The company captured 1,075 net new orders last year. This beat Airbus for the first time in seven years, as the European manufacturer secured 889 orders.
Fourth quarter deliveries reached 160 commercial aircraft. The mix included 737, 767, 777, and 787 Dreamliner models.
Delta Air Lines recently placed an order for up to 60 Boeing 787 Dreamliners. The order includes 30 firm orders for the 787-10 variant plus 30 options.
These deliveries begin in 2031 to support Delta’s international expansion. Bernstein initially upgraded Boeing to Outperform in April 2025 with a $218 target before raising it to the current $298 level.
