At the start of the season, Patrick Mahomes was practically unrecognizable.
The swagger, the backyard ball, the Kermit-The-Frog voice — they were all there. But the Kansas City Chiefs quarterback was offering up too many turnovers to opposing defenses, and he wasn’t offering many touchdown opportunities to his teammates. The turnover-to-touchdown ratio was just enough to keep the team undefeated. But the defense and special teams have driven — and continue to drive — this undefeated run.
Mahomes has been in the backseat, going along for the ride.
Over the past few weeks, he hasn’t been getting in the way as much. But there’s clear evidence that he’s still struggling.
On Sunday, his issues cropped up dramatically in the red zone. Now, that should come with the important context that the Denver Broncos are tied for the fourth-best red-zone defense in the league (when measured in touchdowns allowed). But I think the issues are emblematic of Mahomes’ acute flaws, regardless of the matchup.
The game came down to a blocked field-goal kick, but — if you rewind just a bit further — you’d see the Chiefs charging into the red area, only to settle for a field goal. Had K.C. scored, Denver would have needed a touchdown to win. But the Chiefs couldn’t get a TD. That’s because Mahomes missed a wide-open Travis Kelce in the back of the end zone. On third-and-2, Mahomes had a clean pocket. He had his favorite pass-catcher. And they just whiffed based only on failed execution by the guy we think of as the best QB in the game, particularly in clutch moments.
“It’s a little bit of missed throws, little bit of me not seeing the coverage exactly the way I should,” Mahomes said postgame. “I thought on the one to Trav … I threw it a little higher than I wanted to even though he didn’t get depth. If I can just fire it in there and get him a touchdown there.”
Rewind a little further into the third quarter and you’ll see Mahomes missing another touchdown to Xavier Worthy. In the low red zone, Mahomes scrambled to his right and eluded defenders closing in on him. And it created a tiny window for Mahomes to deliver a high-difficulty throw to Worthy. It’s the type of throw that we really only expect three QBs to make: Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. But Mahomes threw an uncatchable ball and the Chiefs settled for a field goal on the 10-yard line. Mahomes and Worthy simply lack rapport.
“I just left it high when I kind of was off balance — saw him open and threw it,” Mahomes said. “I’ve made those throws before. It’s just about going back, executing and making them next week.”
And finally, there was a play where Mahomes wholly missed his most open receiver of the day. On third down in the second quarter, DeAndre Hopkins went unguarded in the red zone, but the Chiefs QB didn’t even see him. Mahomes felt pressure off his blind side that wasn’t there. The left side of the line, which has been problematic all year, held up. But Mahomes clearly didn’t trust that happening, because he scrambled right. And by the time he looked back at D-Hop, the secondary realized its mistake. Mahomes targeted the receiver too late, resulting in a PBU.
I see it like this:
- To start the season, Mahomes wanted the Chiefs to get vertical and the team adjusted its personnel this offseason to help him do that.
- That personnel either hasn’t panned out or has dealt with injuries.
- The Chiefs aren’t (currently) good at going vertical.
- The Chiefs are good at running the football.
The Chiefs offense set out to do one thing — and now, for these reasons, it has to do something else.
Over the past couple weeks, Mahomes has been better at protecting the football and abandoning his highlight-reel approach, like last year. Running back Kareem Hunt is the centerpiece on offense. And the Chiefs are even getting him more involved in the passing game. But most of all, they’re asking Mahomes to chill out, to go back into game-manager mode — for now.
“The last several weeks, we’ve been running the ball a lot,” offensive coordinator Matt Nagy said on Nov. 7. “I feel like there’s a little bit of an identity that’s being created here as we get to the middle of the season. Sometimes that identity happens instantly. Sometimes it takes a little bit longer. I feel like that’s the case not just for the offense but for the team in general and how we feel like we can win this year. … I feel like we’re really getting that identity.”
It’s not all bad for Mahomes, of course. There’s evidence that he is starting to settle into that identity. This week, he finished 28-of-42 for 266 yards with a touchdown. Last week, he was 34-of-44 for 291 yards with three touchdowns. Those are sizable improvements from Weeks 1 through 8, when he had an interception in each game. But those red-zone gaffes are examples of where Mahomes is still failing to get the most out of his offense.
It seems like Mahomes is so concerned about making a mistake that he’s rarely aggressive. He doesn’t trust the left side of his offensive line, and he doesn’t trust the rookie Worthy.
Hopkins seems to be the only guy Mahomes currently trusts for a big play. Mahomes went three games (Weeks 5-8) without attempting a big-time throw, per PFF. But when Hopkins joined the team in a midseason trade, Mahomes got back to it, with three in the past two weeks.
Even Kelce isn’t getting downfield targets — he’s currently averaging 8.3 yards per reception, down from his career average of 12.2. Kelce has turned into Mahomes’ check-down option, not unlike a rookie QB and his security-blanket TE. With Isiah Pacheco out, the Chiefs are almost using Kelce as an extension of their run game in the quick passing game with timing-based 5-yard pickups.
But let’s talk first about Worthy. He has 405 offensive snaps, tied for most among WRs with Justin Watson. So far, Worthy has 20 catches for 246 yards and five total touchdowns. Kansas City clearly likes having him on the field because of the threat his speed poses. The defense has to cover him carefully. It’s just that the Chiefs have really only been able to get him involved in plays they design for him. Anytime he’s asked to get open within the structure of a play, he has issues. And when he does get open, he and Mahomes aren’t on the same page. Against the Broncos, Mahomes targeted a wide-open Worthy on the right sideline. It was a vertical shot — right there for the taking. Mahomes threw out of bounds.
This is roughly when we thought we’d start to see Mahomes clicking back into shape.
And — that’s more or less what he’s doing. If you squint, you can see it.
He’s finding rapport with Hopkins. He’s not giving up on Worthy. And Hunt and Kelce seem to be helping the Chiefs move the sticks. It’s unclear if the offense will ever be fearsome this season. But for now, that’s not what Kansas City needs.
As the Chiefs are currently constructed, Mahomes needs to abandon what makes him special physically and rely upon what makes him special mentally. Maybe Hopkins and Worthy can reliably reopen different areas in the passing game. But for now, Mahomes needs to be a boring quarterback. He seems to be settling back into that game-manager role that suited last year’s team.
And we know how that season ended.
Prior to joining FOX Sports as an NFL reporter and columnist, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.
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