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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Recovers to $68K as Institutional Money Floods In

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Bitcoin (BTC) Price

Key Takeaways

  • BTC recovered to approximately $68,000 following a weekend decline to $63,000
  • Bitcoin ETFs attracted $1.45 billion in aggregate net inflows across five consecutive sessions
  • Short liquidations primarily fueled the rebound rather than new long positioning
  • Technical indicators improved: RSI increased from 36 to 41, while volume surged from $6.6B to $9.6B
  • Betting platforms indicate reduced probability of BTC reaching $65K or $60K in March

Bitcoin staged a notable recovery on March 4, pushing back toward the $70,000 level and settling near $68,000 during Hong Kong trading hours.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price
Bitcoin (BTC) Price

This upward movement came after a volatile weekend that saw BTC plunge to approximately $63,000, with Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions cited as the primary catalyst.

According to market maker Enflux, the price rebound stemmed largely from forced short liquidations. Bearish traders who anticipated further downside were compelled to close their positions when escalating conflict failed to materialize.

“The market is not pricing catastrophe, but it is not pricing resolution either,” Enflux communicated in correspondence with CoinDesk.

Cryptocurrency markets typically react more swiftly to geopolitical developments than conventional financial markets. Enflux characterized Bitcoin as functioning like a “pressure valve” for capital flows during periods of heightened uncertainty.

Institutional Capital Supports Price Floor

Institutional accumulation has emerged as a critical stabilizing force. Bitcoin spot ETFs collectively accumulated approximately $1.45 billion in net inflows throughout the previous five trading sessions.

In a March 2 conversation, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan revealed that numerous institutional allocators view recent price weakness as an attractive entry point. He referenced one prospective investor who committed $11 million following a two-year evaluation period with Bitwise.

“They’re not surprised that crypto is volatile,” Hougan explained. “They’ve been waiting for an entry point.”

Hougan highlighted that Bitwise’s typical institutional client requires an average of eight meetings before finalizing an allocation, with many conducting reviews only on a quarterly basis. He emphasized that what appears as reluctance often reflects standard institutional due diligence procedures.

As of the fourth quarter, three out of four leading wirehouses now have authorization to proactively present Bitcoin investment opportunities to their client base.

Blockchain Metrics Reveal Measured Optimism

Glassnode analytics indicate gradual improvement, though decisive bullish momentum remains absent.

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The Relative Strength Index for Bitcoin climbed to 41 from the previous week’s reading of 36. However, it continues trading beneath the critical 50 threshold that would confirm buyer dominance.

Daily trading volume expanded to $9.6 billion from $6.6 billion, while spot market order flow has achieved greater equilibrium between buyers and sellers.

Futures markets continue displaying seller predominance over buyers, and funding rates for leveraged long positions have declined.

Prediction market data reinforces the cautious sentiment. The likelihood of Bitcoin declining to $65,000 during March decreased by 11 percentage points to 73%. Similarly, the probability of reaching $60,000 dropped 10 points to 41%.

A corresponding Polymarket contract measuring whether Bitcoin touches $60,000 before reaching $80,000 declined 12 points to 61%.

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At the time of publication, BTC was changing hands at $66,360.

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Crypto World

Ansem Says Ethereum Is in a Worse Spot Than 2023 as Thesis Weakens

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Ethereum Price Prediction

Crypto analyst Ansem argues that Ethereum (ETH) is in a “worse spot” in 2026 than it was in 2023, pointing to a thesis he says has been eroding for years.

His bearish take drew rebuttals from some members of the community. Meanwhile, on-chain activity and technical indicators elsewhere on the network flash bullish signals.

Ansem Lists Cracks in the ETH Thesis

Ansem argues that Solana (SOL) has dominated retail activity this cycle. Hyperliquid has taken the lead in perpetual futures trading, while rollups have failed to gain traction.

He also noted that Vitalik Buterin “publicly abandoned” the general-use rollup thesis. The ongoing Aave (AAVE) situation around the KelpDAO rsETH exploit, Ansem said, is a mark on  Ethereum’s core value proposition of “safety + security of defi & insto interest.

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“ETH thesis has been weakening consistently for years,” the analyst wrote. ETH in 2026 is in a worse spot than it was in 2023, amplified by AI doing extremely well & tech stocks being much more favorable investments with real revenues / emerging narratives / increasing momentum, ETH is a $300B asset with a ton of overhang from Tom Lee topblasting + complacent ETH holders sitting idle in defi protocols.”

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Technically, the analyst noted that ETH remains in a sustained downtrend after failing to break multi-year resistance. He projected that the second-largest cryptocurrency could slip to 2025 lows near $1,300 and to the bear-market lows from 2022.

“Tight invalidation 2377 assuming problems worsen if you want to play it loose assuming other risk assets continues doing well & drags it up probably somewhere around 2700/2800 invalidation fundamentals wise would want to see breakout activity from some new vertical,” the post read.

Ethereum Price Prediction
Ethereum Price Prediction. Source: X/Ansem

Community Members Push Back

The take triggered notable pushback. Ryan Berckmans accused Ansem of not understanding fundamentals. Leo Lanza went further, sharply dismissing the analyst’s bearish case on X.

Another user pointed to a 56% drop in the SOL/ETH pair this cycle.

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“Soleth is down 56% after being up 12x+ *this cycle* because one guy decided to buy 5% of the eth supply after it had underperformed all cycle. idk why you guys act like i dont also bearpost solana i havent posted anything bullish about sol in over a year,” Ansem replied.

Not everyone shares the bearish view on Ethereum. BeInCrypto recently highlighted that network activity remains strong, while technical indicators like the Rainbow Chart and MACD are also flashing bullish signals.

With macro and geopolitical uncertainty still in play, the question is whether ETH slides further this year or stages a renewed rally.

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The post Ansem Says Ethereum Is in a Worse Spot Than 2023 as Thesis Weakens appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Aave’s TVL Falls $8B After $293M Kelp DAO Hack

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Aave’s TVL Falls $8B After $293M Kelp DAO Hack

Total value locked on decentralized lending protocol Aave dropped by nearly $8 billion over the weekend after hackers behind the $293 million Kelp DAO exploit borrowed funds on Aave, leaving roughly $195 million in “bad debt” on the protocol and triggering withdrawals.

Data from DeFiLlama shows that Aave’s TVL fell from about $26.4 billion to $18.6 billion by Sunday, losing the top spot as the largest DeFi protocol. 

Aave v3’s lending pools for USDt (USDT) and USDC (USDC) are now at 100% utilization, meaning that more than $5.1 billion worth of stablecoins cannot be withdrawn until new liquidity arrives or borrows are repaid. 

$2,540 is available to be withdrawn from the $2.87 billion USDT pool on Aave v3 at the time of writing. Source: Aave

Aave’s TVL fall shows how rapidly risk from a single security incident can spread throughout the broader, interconnected DeFi lending market, potentially leading to a severe liquidity crisis.

The incident began on Saturday when hackers stole 116,500 Kelp DAO Restaked ETH (rsETH) tokens worth about $293 million from Kelp DAO’s LayerZero-powered bridge and used them as collateral on Aave v3 to borrow wrapped Ether (wETH).

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Crypto analytics platform Lookonchain said the move created about $195 million in “bad debt” on Aave, which contributed to the Aave (AAVE) token tanking nearly 20% from $112 on Saturday at 6:00 pm UTC to $89.5 about 25 hours later. 

Lookonchain noted that some of the largest crypto whales to withdraw funds from Aave were the MEXC crypto exchange and Abraxas Capital at $431 million and $392 million, respectively.

Source: Grvt

Several crypto networks and protocols tied to rsETH or the LayerZero bridge have paused use of the bridge until the problem is resolved, including DeFi platform Curve Finance, stablecoin issuer Ethena and BitGo’s Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC).

Aave has frozen several rsETH, wETH markets

Shortly after the Kelp DAO exploit, Aave said it froze the rsETH markets on both Aave v3 and v4 to prevent any suspicious borrowing and later stated that rsETH on Ethereum mainnet remains fully backed by underlying assets.

WETH reserves also remain frozen on Ethereum, Arbitrum, Base, Mantle and Linea, Aave said.

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This incident marks the first significant stress test of Aave’s “Umbrella” security model, which was introduced in June 2025 to provide automated protection against protocol bad debt while enabling users to earn rewards.

Related: Aave DAO backs V4 mainnet plan in near-unanimous vote

Earlier this month, the Bank of Canada found that Aave avoided bad debt in its v3 market by using overcollateralization, automated liquidations and other strategies that shifted risk to borrowers.

In comments to Cointelegraph, Aave defended its liquidation-based model, framing it as a core safety mechanism that protects lenders while limiting downside for borrowers.

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It comes as Aave parted ways with its longest-standing DeFi risk service provider, Chaos Labs, on April 6, following disagreements over the direction of Aave v4 and budget constraints.

Magazine: Are DeFi devs liable for the illegal activity of others on their platforms?