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80% of Indian stocks are in bear market. Is it time to be greedy or fearful?

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80% of Indian stocks are in bear market. Is it time to be greedy or fearful?
While the Sensex and Nifty have corrected only about 6-7% from their all-time highs, a brutal bear market has been quietly gutting the broader listed universe for eighteen months. Among all listed companies with a market capitalisation above Rs 1,000 crore, more than 64% have fallen 30% or more from their all-time highs. Nearly 78% have fallen 20% or more. In other words, approximately 80% of India’s listed universe above Rs 1,000 crore is already deep in bear market territory and the picture turns bleaker still if smaller companies are included.

This is the finding of a new report from Monarch AIF, which describes the past year-and-a-half as a “peculiar phenomenon” in Indian markets: a phase of simultaneous time and value correction where indices stay elevated on the back of a narrow band of large-cap stocks, while hundreds of small and midcap companies have been silently decimated. That divergence, the firm says, is “very rare.”

And now, with the US-Israel strikes on Iran having pushed geopolitics back to the forefront, the Sensex fell over 1,000 points Monday, Nifty closed below 24,900. Investors now face a compounding of forces: a market already bruised by 18 months of stealth selling, now confronting a crude oil shock and the spectre of a widening Middle East conflict.

The question is whether this is the moment to run, or the moment to act.

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Bear market hidden in plain sight

“This feels less like a visible crash and more like a stealth sell-off, especially in the broader small and mid-cap space,” said ArunaGiri N, Founder, CEO and Fund Manager at TrustLine Holdings. “And historically, such phases are painful, but they are also when long-term opportunity quietly begins to build.”


He offered three recent examples of what he called “disproportionate price action on the downside.” UPL shares fell 18% or more following a group restructuring announcement, despite high debt not being new information as the market is in a mood now to magnify potential risks, he said. IDFC Bank lost over Rs 14,000 crore in market capitalisation over a potential fraud loss valued at Rs 590 crore. Dishman Carbogen Amcis fell more than 10% following a mild rating agency downgrade. “One can go on,” ArunaGiri said. “Markets are in a less forgiving mood.”
Yet within the wreckage, something has changed. Monarch AIF’s analysis shows that currently around 36% of all stocks above Rs 1,000 crore market cap are trading at trailing twelve-month P/E multiples below 25x, up from just 25% in September 2024. Several small but fast-growing companies are now available at one-year forward P/E multiples of less than 20x.The firm also points to the fundamental strength of smaller companies that the sell-off has obscured. Profit before tax for the bottom-half of the listed universe by market cap grew at a CAGR of approximately 20% between 2019 and 2025, with PAT growth running at 25%. Net debt-to-equity for these companies has collapsed to just 0.13x. Revenue CAGR for the bottom half over the past three years stood at 14%, versus 11% for the top half.

Also read: Market crash wipes out Rs 8 lakh cr within minutes; 4 reasons behind today’s rout

Rate cuts add further fuel. Monarch AIF notes that after every rate-cut cycle involving more than 100 basis points, midcap and small-cap indices have staged sharp recoveries, with smaller companies tending to benefit more from operating leverage, leading to better margins and earnings growth.
The firm expects further earnings improvement in Q4, with PAT growth in Q3 having been partly suppressed by labour code provisioning. Trade deal announcements with the US and EU are also expected to support export-oriented small caps, with earnings upgrades potentially following through into FY27.

Iran war adding to the pain

Into this already complex picture, the Iran escalation has now landed. History, however, offers some perspective. Elara Securities notes that over the past 25 years of Middle East crises, the median Nifty return is flat at one week and one month, and up 17% at one year. The sell-off deepens meaningfully only when geopolitics morphs into a sustained energy shock, as in the 2011 Arab Spring, when Brent rose 20–25% in the first month and equity drawdowns widened sharply. The Russia-Ukraine episode remains the closest stress template on record.

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Emkay Global’s base case is that the current hostilities end in one to two weeks, with markets recovering sharply as they did after the October 2023 and June 2025 episodes. Jefferies, while flagging India’s deep economic linkages with the Middle East — 17% of exports, 55% of crude supply, 38% of remittances — notes that recent regional conflicts have been temporary, and that “a dip could be a buying opportunity.”

Also read: Petronet LNG shares crash 8% after issuing force majeure notices amid Middle East hostilities

Axis Mutual Fund was equally measured. “Markets price duration and economic impact, not emotion,” the fund house said. “Once it becomes clear that supply disruptions are manageable, policy frameworks remain intact and growth is not structurally impaired, risk premiums compress. For India — where growth is driven by domestic consumption, capex recovery, digitisation and manufacturing realignment — geopolitical shocks are typically interruptions, not inflection points.”

The fund house pointed to a consistent pattern across fifteen years of conflict-driven sell-offs: “Investors who exited equities during earlier conflict-driven sell-offs frequently missed the recoveries that followed — sometimes within a relatively short span.”

What should investors do?

Back to the underlying bear market question. ArunaGiri’s prescription is blunt: “It is time to put capital to work, not to time the bottom.” He acknowledges the challenge — “that approach will call for a stubborn stomach to digest temporary and notional losses” — but argues that the number of opportunities offering attractive free cash flow and payout yields alongside high growth potential “have witnessed a sharp surge. Exciting times for bottom-up stock pickers.”

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Monarch AIF agrees, saying the risk-reward for bottom-up stock picking has turned “favourable” in a way that typically only happens after a bear market has run its course.

The indices may not be telling you that the bear market is here. But for 80% of Indian stocks, it very much is and some of the most experienced voices on Dalal Street are quietly starting to shop.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)

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Form 4 NorthWestern Corp For: 4 March

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Stevanato Group surges nearly 17% on fourth quarter earnings beat

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Brewdog founder admits 'many mistakes' as hundreds lose jobs in sale

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Brewdog founder admits 'many mistakes' as hundreds lose jobs in sale

James Watt apologises to staff and investors after hundreds of jobs were lost with the sale of the brewer and pub chain.

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FCA signals potential changes to motor finance compensation scheme after industry backlash

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UK financial watchdog considering over 1,000 responses to proposals

FCA logo in reception

The FCA has updated markets on its motor finance compensation scheme

The UK’s financial regulator is aiming to “streamline” its long-awaited motor finance compensation scheme following extensive industry backlash.

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The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) issued a fresh update to markets on Wednesday, stating it was reviewing over 1,000 responses to its proposals for the sector-wide redress scheme.

It added that “if” it were to proceed with a scheme, the regulator was “likely to make several changes”.

In its Wednesday update, the FCA stated it would streamline the process for consumers and firms by eliminating the opt-out options and replacing them with a three-month deadline for lenders to inform consumers what they are owed and how much.

Consumers receiving an offer would also be able to accept it immediately, rather than waiting for the final determination, as reported by City AM.

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Firms would also no longer be required to write to customers via recorded delivery, which the regulator said would open new communication channels to best meet consumers’ needs.

The FCA stated: “If we do go ahead [with the scheme], we expect to publish final rules in late March.”

Earlier this year, Britain’s leading banks were believed to have been given some relief after the Supreme Court upheld two out of three appeals from lenders in the landmark car finance scandal.

But the latter half of the year delivered a succession of dramatic developments in the saga, with the FCA revealing proposals for a controversial redress scheme that prompted banks to substantially increase their provisions for compensation.

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One of the principal areas of criticism regarding the FCA’s scheme centres on the determination of “unfair” – the benchmark the Supreme Court upheld in the single successful claimant’s case.

The highest Court ruled in favour of one of three claimants after determining their excessive commission of 55 per cent was “unfair”. However, the FCA has stated the threshold for its redress – where 14.2m agreements are estimated to be eligible – will be 35 per cent.

The scheme in its current form presents lenders with a bill of approximately £11bn – still a substantial sum but significantly below previous projections of £44bn once feared by the City. Roughly 14.2m agreements will qualify for the scheme, extending back to 2007 – a timeframe which has encountered fierce resistance from the industry.

The regulator was compelled to extend the deadline for submitting feedback for the motor finance redress scheme last year as opposition from both consumer and lending camps intensified.

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Lloyds Banking Group – which owns Britain’s largest car finance provider Black Horse – was obliged to raise provisions to £2bn from £1.2bn after particulars of the scheme emerged in October. FTSE 250 lender Close Brothers nearly doubled its reserves to £300m and Barclays almost quadrupled its provisions to £325m.

Santander UK abandoned its third-quarter results in October, referencing uncertainty within the motor finance sector, as bank chief Mike Regnier urged the government to consider intervening to help mediate. He warned if the government does not intervene “the unintended consequences for the car finance market, the supply of credit and the resulting negative impact on the automotive industry and its supply chain could significantly impact jobs, growth and the broader UK economy.”

There has also been equivalent opposition on the consumer side, with the All-Party Parliamentary Group (APPG) on Fair Banking condemning the City watchdog for a “£4.4bn gap” in the proposed scheme. The group accused the regulator of being “influenced by the profit margins of the lenders”.

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Bayer Aktiengesellschaft 2025 Q4 – Results – Earnings Call Presentation (OTCMKTS:BAYRY) 2026-03-04

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OneWater Marine Inc. (ONEW) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

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Seeking Alpha’s transcripts team is responsible for the development of all of our transcript-related projects. We currently publish thousands of quarterly earnings calls per quarter on our site and are continuing to grow and expand our coverage. The purpose of this profile is to allow us to share with our readers new transcript-related developments. Thanks, SA Transcripts Team

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Allspring Special Small Cap Value Fund Q4 2025 Portfolio Review

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Allspring Special Small Cap Value Fund Q4 2025 Portfolio Review

Allspring is a company committed to thoughtful investing, purposeful planning, and the desire to elevate investing to be worth more. Allspring is reimagining investment management to be worth more—creating an investment, distribution, and operational experience that changes the game for clients. Note: This account is not managed or monitored by Allspring, and any messages sent via Seeking Alpha will not receive a response. For inquiries or communication, please use Allspring’s official channels.

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Janus Henderson Flexible Bond Managed Account Q4 2025 Commentary (JFLEX)

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Janus Henderson Flexible Bond Managed Account Q4 2025 Commentary (JFLEX)

Janus Henderson Investors exists to help clients achieve their long-term financial goals. Formed in 2017 from the merger between Janus Capital Group and Henderson Global Investors, we are committed to adding value through active management. For us, active is more than our investment approach – it is the way we translate ideas into action, how we communicate our views and the partnerships we build in order to create the best outcomes for clients. While our investment managers have the flexibility to follow approaches best suited to their areas of expertise, overall our people come together as a team. This is reflected in our Knowledge. Shared ethos, which informs the dialogue across the business and drives our commitment to empowering clients to make better investment and business decisions.www.janushenderson.com

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(VIDEO) Israeli F-35 Downs Iranian Yak-130 in Historic First Dogfight Over Tehran Amid Escalating War

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James Talarico

An Israeli Air Force F-35I “Adir” stealth fighter jet shot down an Iranian Air Force Yakovlev Yak-130 combat trainer over the skies of Tehran on Wednesday, the Israel Defense Forces announced, marking the first confirmed air-to-air kill of a manned aircraft by an F-35 and the Israeli military’s first fighter-on-fighter engagement in nearly four decades.

Israeli Air Force F-35I
Israeli Air Force F-35I

The incident occurred shortly before 8:35 a.m. local time, the IDF said in a statement released around 10:30 a.m. Israel time. “An Israeli Air Force F-35I fighter jet (‘Adir’) shot down an Iranian Air Force YAK-130 fighter jet a short while ago over the skies of Tehran,” the military posted on social media platforms including Telegram and X. “This is the first shootdown in history of a manned fighter aircraft by an F-35 (‘Adir’) fighter jet.”

The downing came amid the fifth day of intense aerial operations in the ongoing war between Israel, supported by the United States, and Iran. Israel has conducted multiple waves of strikes on Iranian targets, including infrastructure tied to the regime’s security apparatus, missile systems, and leadership sites in and around Tehran. Explosions were reported in the Iranian capital at dawn Wednesday, with Iranian state television confirming blasts as Israeli jets maintained pressure.

The Yak-130, a Russian-designed advanced jet trainer and light combat aircraft produced since the 1990s, is used by the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force (IRIAF) for training and limited attack roles. It lacks advanced radar capabilities compared to frontline fighters and relies primarily on visual or helmet-mounted sighting systems for close-range engagements. Analysts noted the mismatch: the F-35I, Israel’s customized variant of the Lockheed Martin stealth fighter, features superior sensors, electronic warfare systems, and beyond-visual-range missiles, allowing it to detect and engage targets from significant distances.

The IDF described the engagement as a dogfight, though details on whether it involved close-range maneuvering or a beyond-visual-range missile shot remain classified. No injuries or losses were reported on the Israeli side, with the F-35 returning undamaged. The pilot’s identity and specifics of the interception were not disclosed for operational security reasons.

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This marks the first time since 1985 that the Israeli Air Force has downed an enemy manned aircraft in air-to-air combat. In that earlier incident, F-15s shot down two Syrian MiG-21s over Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley. The F-35’s combat debut against a manned target represents a milestone for the platform, which has seen extensive use in strike missions but had not previously recorded a confirmed air-to-air kill of a piloted plane.

The event unfolded against a backdrop of broader Israeli operations. On Wednesday, the IDF launched what it called a “broad wave of strikes” targeting Iranian internal security forces and regime infrastructure in Tehran. Defense Minister Israel Katz vowed continued action “to crush the regime’s capabilities and create the conditions for the Iranian people to overthrow it.” Israeli officials have framed the campaign as aimed at degrading Iran’s ability to threaten Israel, the United States, and regional allies.

Iran has responded with missile and drone barrages targeting Israel, with air defenses intercepting many incoming threats. Explosions were heard around Jerusalem as interceptors engaged projectiles Wednesday morning. The conflict, now in its fifth day, follows earlier joint U.S.-Israeli strikes that reportedly targeted missile launchers, nuclear-related sites, and high-value personnel.

The Yak-130’s presence over Tehran raised questions among military observers. Some speculated it was scrambled to intercept Israeli aircraft or patrol amid heightened alerts, though its limited combat capabilities made it vulnerable. Iranian media has not yet confirmed the loss or provided details on the pilot’s fate. State outlets focused instead on reporting explosions and defensive measures.

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The incident highlights Israel’s air superiority in the theater. With dozens of F-35Is in its inventory—bolstered by ongoing deliveries—the IAF has conducted extensive operations, including what officials described as the largest aerial campaign in its history earlier in the week. Around 200 Israeli fighters, many F-35s, participated in strikes dropping thousands of munitions on Iranian targets.

Experts caution that while the shootdown demonstrates technological dominance, the war’s outcome depends on broader strategic factors, including Iran’s missile arsenal, proxy forces, and potential escalation involving other regional players. The U.S. has provided support through naval assets, intelligence sharing, and defensive assistance, though direct U.S. combat involvement remains limited to allied operations.

No independent verification of wreckage or crash site footage has emerged as of Wednesday afternoon, with Tehran airspace heavily contested and information tightly controlled. Aviation safety databases logged the Yak-130 as destroyed over Tehran, citing Israeli military sources.

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The downing has drawn swift reactions online and in military circles. Some praised the F-35’s performance as validation of stealth technology in contested environments, while others noted the lopsided matchup against a trainer-derived aircraft. Social media posts from defense accounts highlighted the historic nature, with one analyst remarking, “Poor Iranian pilots—they send them against the most advanced fighter jet in the world in a 15-year-old training jet.”

As operations continue, the IDF emphasized its commitment to neutralizing threats. Air raid sirens sounded intermittently in Israel amid Iranian retaliatory fire, underscoring the fluid and dangerous nature of the conflict.

Military officials in Jerusalem said strikes would persist until objectives—degrading Iran’s offensive capabilities and regime infrastructure—are met. For now, the skies over Tehran remain a focal point of the war, with Israel’s F-35s asserting dominance in what may prove a pivotal chapter in modern aerial warfare.

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Sea Limited: Market Panic Created A Rare Strong Buy Opportunity (NYSE:SE)

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Sea Limited: Market Panic Created A Rare Strong Buy Opportunity (NYSE:SE)

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I’ve been researching companies in-depth for over a decade, from commodities like oil, natural gas, gold and copper to tech like Google or Nokia and many emerging market stocks, which I believe could help me provide useful content for readers. After writing my own blog for about 3 years, I decided to switch to a value investing-focused YouTube channel, where I researched hundreds of different companies so far. I would say my favorite type of company to cover are metals and mining stocks, but I am comfortable with several other industries, such as consumer discretionary/staples, REITs and utilities.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, but may initiate a beneficial Long position through a purchase of the stock, or the purchase of call options or similar derivatives in SE over the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Fold Holdings earnings beat by $0.02, revenue fell short of estimates

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