Key Highlights

• Fourth quarter 2025 revenue dropped 17.6% annually to $1.87 million, falling short of the $2.33 million analyst consensus
• Mizuho’s Vijay Rakesh lowered his price target to $43 from $50 while keeping a Buy rating, seeing 142% potential upside
• The company reached 99.9% two-qubit gate fidelity at 28 nanoseconds, potentially outpacing rivals by 3–5x
• Cash reserves stand at approximately $590 million, with an $8.4 million contract from India’s Centre for Development of Advanced Computing
• The roadmap includes exceeding 150 physical qubits by December 2026 and surpassing 1,000 by late 2027

Rigetti Computing’s fourth quarter financial performance disappointed investors, yet the company’s technological achievements paint a more optimistic picture. Let’s break down the situation.

Rigetti Computing, Inc., RGTI

The company reported Q4 2025 revenue of $1.87 million, representing a 17.6% decline compared to the prior year period and missing analyst expectations of $2.33 million. The previous quarter saw revenue of $2.3 million, highlighting a notable sequential decline.

Gross profit margins also contracted, sliding to 35% from the 44% recorded in Q4 2024. Management pointed to contract mix as the primary factor behind this margin compression.

Operating losses expanded to $22.6 million during the quarter versus $18.5 million in the year-ago period. Operating expenses climbed to $23.2 million from $19.5 million, primarily reflecting increased investment in research and development.

The company recorded a per-share loss of $0.03, matching Wall Street’s consensus forecast.

In response, Mizuho’s Vijay Rakesh reduced his price objective from $50 to $43 — representing a 14% reduction. However, he maintained his Buy recommendation.

The $43 target price suggests approximately 142% potential upside from present trading levels. Rakesh’s valuation methodology applies roughly 9x to his projected revenue 30 months forward, based on Rigetti capturing a 10% share of the quantum computing sector.

First Quarter Guidance and Contract Pipeline

Rakesh projects Q1 2026 revenue reaching $3 million — representing a 62% sequential increase and 106% growth year-over-year. This anticipated expansion is primarily driven by Rigetti’s $5.7 million Novera quantum processor agreement.

Additionally, the company plans to ship its inaugural Cepheus-1 108-qubit system to India’s Centre for Development of Advanced Computing during the latter half of 2026, representing an $8.4 million engagement.

Rigetti’s balance sheet shows approximately $590 million in cash, providing sufficient capital to pursue its development timeline without near-term funding concerns.

Quantum Hardware Advancements

On the technology front, Rigetti demonstrated 99.9% two-qubit gate fidelity utilizing an innovative adiabatic CZ technique at 28 nanoseconds. According to the company, this performance potentially exceeds competing methodologies by a factor of 3 to 5.

The company has successfully deployed both an 84-qubit monolithic chip architecture and a 36-qubit chiplet-based configuration to cloud platforms.

Rigetti manages Fab One, characterized as the quantum computing industry’s first purpose-built integrated device fabrication center.

Strategic collaborations include working with Riverlane on error correction technologies and Nvidia to connect quantum processors with GPUs and CPUs through NVLink, leveraging CUDA-Q software for hybrid computing environments.

The company’s technical roadmap calls for exceeding 150 physical qubits by December 2026 and surpassing 1,000 qubits by year-end 2027. Management estimates quantum advantage is approximately three years from realization.

According to TipRanks, RGTI stock carries a Moderate Buy consensus rating derived from five Buy recommendations and two Hold recommendations. The analyst average price target stands at $37.60, suggesting approximately 111.7% upside potential from current trading prices.

Over the trailing twelve months, RGTI stock has appreciated more than 117%.

TLDR

• Baird maintained its Outperform rating on Nvidia while increasing the price target from $275 to $300
• Wedbush similarly elevated its target to $300 from $230, keeping its Outperform stance
• Analysts highlight Q1 guidance as exceeding buy-side expectations by a significant margin
• The chipmaker has ceased production of China-specific processors, redirecting TSMC capacity toward upcoming Vera Rubin architecture
• Shares of NVDA are currently trading around $183, reflecting gains exceeding 1,100% over three years

The semiconductor powerhouse reported an impressive quarterly revenue of $68 billion, marking a 73% year-over-year surge, prompting analysts to adjust their outlooks upward.

NVIDIA Corporation, NVDA

On February 26, Baird confirmed its Outperform stance on Nvidia while bumping its price objective from $275 to $300. The investment firm highlighted data center revenue acceleration reaching nearly double its prior growth pace, while noting that virtual reality metrics are outperforming competitor benchmarks.

Wedbush echoed this sentiment on the same date, upgrading its price objective from $230 to $300 and maintaining its Outperform designation.

Both analyst firms see potential gains exceeding 69% from the stock’s current trading range.

Wedbush emphasized that the Q1 guidance represented the most impressive aspect of Nvidia’s quarterly disclosure. According to the firm, the forward-looking projections substantially exceeded previous buy-side estimates.

Baird revised its financial models to incorporate the robust performance across business segments, with particular strength in data center operations and virtual reality divisions.

NVDA shares currently hover near $183, positioning the company’s market capitalization at roughly $4.4 trillion. The 52-week trading band extends from $86.62 to $212.19.

The equity trades at approximately 22x forward earnings projections, which several market observers consider attractive relative to its expansion profile.

Manufacturing Pivot from China to Vera Rubin Platform

According to a Financial Times article from March 5, Nvidia has discontinued production of semiconductors designated for Chinese customers.

The company has reallocated its manufacturing resources at TSMC, shifting from H200 chip production to focus on its upcoming Vera Rubin generation.

Sources familiar with the situation informed the Financial Times that Nvidia anticipates persistent regulatory obstacles from both U.S. and Chinese authorities will constrain China sales for the foreseeable future.

The Vera Rubin architecture is slated for introduction in late 2026, aligning with Nvidia’s strategy of implementing yearly GPU architecture updates.

Understanding the Analyst Price Projections

Achieving the $300 target from the current $183 level would necessitate approximately 64% appreciation.

One market analyst following the semiconductor giant projects Nvidia could approach $250 within the calendar year, implying a 37% advance from its March 2 closing price.

The same analyst suggested that while $300 remains achievable under favorable market circumstances and reduced investor anxiety, the $250 scenario appears more probable in the immediate term.

Customer appetite for preceding GPU generations—including Blackwell and Blackwell Ultra architectures—remains robust, while cloud service providers continue substantial capital allocation toward AI infrastructure buildouts.

Nvidia’s commitment to annual GPU architecture refreshes maintains a consistent product roadmap for enterprises seeking cutting-edge AI computing capabilities.

As of March 5, NVDA closed at $183.08, posting a 1.68% intraday gain.

IREN (IREN), a data center operator focused on AI cloud infrastructure, said it agreed to buy more than 50,000 specialized processing chips from Nvidia (NVDA), expanding its capacity by about 50%.

The B300 GPUs, or graphic processing units, will take the Sydney-based company’s total AI compute fleet to about 150,000 GPUs. A GPU is a specialized chip for performing large numbers of parallel computations, enabling the training and operation of artificial intelligence models at high speed.

The company also filed for a potential at-the-market share sale of up to $6 billion as part of its broader capital management strategy. The shares dropped 5% in pre-market trading on Thursday due to potential dilution.

The additional hardware is expected to be deployed in phases through the second half of 2026 across the company’s air-cooled data centers in Mackenzie, British Columbia, and Childress, Texas. Once fully deployed, the expanded fleet is projected to support more than $3.7 billion in annualized AI cloud revenue, positioning IREN among the larger AI cloud infrastructure providers globally.

IREN said it has secured about $9.3 billion in funding over the past eight months through customer prepayments, convertible notes, GPU leasing and financing arrangements, with roughly $3.5 billion in additional capital expenditures expected for the new GPU deployments in the second half of 2026.

Weekly net stablecoin inflows rebounded last week as onchain activity picked up even while US lawmakers and banking groups sparred over whether stablecoin issuers should be allowed to pay yield, according to a new report from Messari.

Weekly net stablecoin inflows accelerated to $1.7 billion, a 414.5% increase week-on-week, according to the report published on Wednesday.

The recovery also flipped the 30-day average to a positive $162.5 million in daily inflows. Transaction volumes also rose 6.3%, while average transaction size continued to decline, reflecting renewed stablecoin issuance demand and “strengthened” onchain activity amid retail investors, the report said.

Stablecoin inflows track net new stablecoins entering circulation after accounting for redemptions.

The surge follows a weaker period earlier in the year. Messari data showed $249 million in weekly inflows two weeks earlier and $4.4 billion in net outflows over the 30 days leading up to Feb. 18.

Stablecoin yield debate stalls US market structure bill

The renewed demand comes as debate in Washington has sharpened over “yield-bearing” stablecoins. Banking groups have argued that allowing stablecoin issuers to pay yield would create a loophole that could pull deposits away from banks, and have urged lawmakers to restrict the practice as they negotiate a broader crypto market structure bill.

Related: Indiana lawmakers pass crypto rights bill banning discriminatory taxes

Initially scheduled for mid-January, the Senate Banking Committee’s markup of the bill was postponed indefinitely amid disputes over stablecoin yield.

On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump criticized banks for stalling the Senate’s bill.

“The Genius Act is being threatened and undermined by the Banks, and that is unacceptable — We are not going to allow it,” said Trump in a Tuesday post on the Truth Social platform.

Related: Tether invests in AI sleep tracking firm at a $1.5B valuation

The GENIUS Act, a federal framework for regulating stablecoin issuers, prohibits issuers from paying interest or yield solely for holding a payment stablecoin. Third-party platforms, however, can still offer rewards programs tied to stablecoin balances.

Separately, the Digital Asset Market Structure Clarity Act, known as the CLARITY Act, is designed to provide a broader regulatory framework for digital assets. The House passed the measure on July 17, 2025, and it has been under debate in the Senate.

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