President Donald Trump‘s strategy for resolving the war in Ukraine has so far centered on heavy U.S. pressure applied to Ukraine and sympathetic rhetoric toward Russia. It is important that this change now, and with his recent decision to cut off all Russian oil sales to Europe, there are positive signs that the president understands this.
Trump has repeatedly suggested that Russian President Vladimir Putin “holds all the cards” in Ukraine. This is not true. Although Russia holds the battlefield advantage in troops and equipment, its military has shown a consistent inability to conduct big-scale operations involving a wide array of different ground and air units.
Even if U.S. support for Ukraine were withdrawn, Russia would unlikely cross the Dnieper River and threaten Western Ukraine or Kyiv. Undue deference to Putin and exaggeration of his strength are contradictory to the cause of a just peace. They encourage Putin to demand evermore rather than to make necessary concessions.
The time has arrived for Trump to show Russia that his diplomatic inventory carries a big stick, and the oil sale ban is a good step in that direction. But more is needed, or Putin will not make the concessions that are prerequisites of a permanent end to this conflict.
Following talks between the United States and Ukraine in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, Ukraine agreed to a U.S. plan for a 30-day ceasefire. Secretary of State Marco Rubio then observed that the “ball is now in Russia’s court.” Trump is pushing for a phone call with Putin this weekend. Trump’s conduct in that call will be crucial.
If Putin takes the call, the Russian leader is almost certain to make additional demands on Trump in return for accepting the ceasefire. These might include Trump’s assertion that Russian-occupied territories in Ukraine will remain under Russian control under any final status deal or that the U.S. will rule out the deployment of European peacekeepers to Ukraine. Russian state-aligned media are also suggesting that Putin may push for a total cessation of Western arms support to Ukraine in return for supporting a ceasefire. Trump should instead insist that Russia accept a ceasefire without strings attached. His failure to do so would only encourage Putin to play more games as any peace negotiations progress.
It is crucial that Trump tell Putin that no matter how good Putin thinks his hand is, it is the U.S. that holds the aces. Putin must be made to understand that if he decides to gamble against Trump’s resolve, he will find himself in a very poor position. As Tom Rogan has noted, “If Russia refuses these terms, Trump should take immediate action to compel a change in Putin’s strategic calculus. Trump could, for example, provide additional arms supplies to Ukraine, enforce sanctions against Russian oil smuggling, and prepare secondary sanctions on China and India for their purchases of Russian oil and gas. Those secondary sanctions would devastate the Russian economy, hammering its only export sector and source of foreign capital.”
This threat would carry weight because Russia’s inflation rate is above 10%, much of its best human capital has left the country or been diverted to the military-industrial complex, its private sector lacks high-value spare parts, and its economy faces grievous structural challenges such as endemic corruption, demographic implosion, and woeful infrastructure.
Willingness to punish Putin if he refuses to negotiate in good faith will also show America’s allies that the president is committed to a just peace rather than one dictated by the Russian dictator. General acceptance of American moral credibility is crucial if negotiations are to succeed. Ukraine cannot accept a peace deal that does not prevent future Russian invasion in two, five, or 10 years. Putin promised in 2014 not to invade Ukraine again but did so on Feb. 24, 2022. Negotiations and peace do not involve trusting Russia, but instead impelling it.
It is for this reason that Putin’s second central negotiating demand will be Trump’s acceptance that no European peacekeepers be deployed to Ukraine. This must be rejected. Peace will require the unpleasant reality of Trump and Ukraine accepting Russia’s first demand, the retention of most territories it has seized from Ukraine. But Trump must not — cannot — budge on the peacekeepers. That issue will be the focus of any talks that follow this ceasefire.
THE TARIFF CHAOS THREAT TO THE TRUMP AGENDA
If Trump threatens to destroy Russia’s economy, Putin will yield. He will yield both because keeping some Ukrainian territory will allow him to claim any peace agreement is a strategic success, and because his failure to do otherwise would weaken his hold on power. Russians do not tend to tolerate economic implosion when it is due to the obstinacy of a corrupt elite.
Trump can secure and deserve a Nobel Peace Prize, but only if he recognizes that ending this war will require toughness.
