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Crypto News Today: $2.6 Billion Options Expiry With Volatility Expected

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In crypto news today, the markets are bracing for a spike in Bitcoin volatility as approximately $2.6Bn in options contracts are set to expire across major exchanges. Bitcoin USD is currently holding firmly above the $70,000 threshold, but derivatives data indicate a potential gravitational pull downward toward the ‘max pain’ price of $69,000.

With 31,700 Bitcoin contracts and 184,000 Ethereum contracts rolling off the board, traders are watching closely to see if the 08:00 UTC settlement triggers a relief rally or a short-term correction.

The expiry comes as spot markets attempt to consolidate after adding +$150Bn to the total market cap earlier this week, as it reached $2.5 trillion once more.

Prices have been cooling off since Friday morning, and the divergence between the current spot price and the max pain levels suggests the next few hours could be choppy.

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Bitcoin Options: $69,000 Max Pain Level — What It Means for BTC Price

The lion’s share of today’s expiry lies in Bitcoin, with a notional value of roughly $2.2Bn. Data from CoinGlass highlights a max pain point of $69,000, slightly below the current trading range. If prices gravitate toward this level before settlement, Bitcoin could see a sharp flush to punish over-leveraged longs.

The put/call ratio for this batch of contracts sits at 1.7, indicating a heavy dominance of bearish bets. A ratio significantly above 1.0 typically signals that traders are hedging against downside risk, with more expiring shorts (puts) than longs (calls) in the mix.

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In crypto news today, billions of dollars in options are expiring across Bitcoin and Ethereum USD, and traders are braced for volatility
SOURCE: CoinGlass

Open interest (OI) on Deribit remains highest at the $60,000 strike price, suggesting that while the immediate max pain is near $69,000, the broader market structure still has significant defensive positioning lower down.

If Bitcoin holds above $70,000 through the settlement window, the failure of these bearish puts to profit could force a rapid unwinding, potentially fueling a move toward $75,000.

Discover: The best crypto to diversify your portfolio with

Ethereum Options: $1,950 Max Pain: Volatility Risk for ETH USD

Ethereum faces its own settlement pressure today, with approximately 184,000 contracts expiring carrying a notional value of around $380M. Unlike Bitcoin’s bearish skew, Ethereum’s put/call ratio stands at 0.85, signaling a more balanced but slightly bullish sentiment among traders.

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However, the max pain price for ETH is significantly lower at $1,950. With Ethereum trading well above this level, the risk of a “pinning” event, in which price is pulled down to maximize option writer profits, is less severe but not impossible.

Recent discussions around Ethereum’s roadmap have added fundamental noise to the price action, but today’s moves will likely be driven by these derivatives flows.

If ETH can maintain its distance from the $1,950 max pain point, it confirms strong spot demand, potentially setting the stage for a run at $2,200.

In crypto news today, billions of dollars in options are expiring across Bitcoin and Ethereum USD, and traders are braced for volatility
SOURCE: TradingView

Analyst Views: Is a Relief Rally Coming, or is a Deeper Correction Next?

Market watchers are divided on whether this option’s expiry will mark a local top or a refueling station for the next leg up. Data from GreeksLive shows that selling call options has dominated trading over the last 48 hours.

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“Despite ongoing price gains, momentum has slowed,” the firm noted, pointing out that Bitcoin is poised to challenge $75,000 only if it can shake off the expiry-induced drag.

A contrarian view suggests that the high put/call ratio on Bitcoin acts as a signal for a squeeze. When the crowd is heavy on puts, the market often moves the opposite way to punish the majority.

Market sentiment has suddenly flipped in recent days, and if spot buyers absorb the selling pressure at $69,000, the path of least resistance remains up.

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Discover: The hottest meme coins in crypto

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Binance Fires Back at Senate Inquiry, Calls Media Allegations False and Defamatory

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Nexo Partners with Bakkt for US Crypto Exchange and Yield Programs

TLDR:

  • Binance processed over 71,000 law enforcement requests in 2025, helping seize $752 million in illicit assets worldwide.
  • Exposure to illicit wallets on Binance dropped nearly 97% between January 2024 and July 2025, per blockchain analytics data.
  • Hexa Whale and Blessed Trust were offboarded following proactive internal investigations, not media pressure or regulatory orders.
  • Binance denied WSJ claims of 2,000 Iranian-linked accounts, linking the allegation to its ongoing VPN circumvention detection efforts.

Binance has formally responded to a February 24, 2026 letter from U.S. Senator Richard Blumenthal of the Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations.

The exchange giant directly challenged allegations drawn from recent media reports by the New York Times, Fortune, and the Wall Street Journal.

In its response, the company defended its compliance program, disputed claims about Iranian user accounts, and addressed the treatment of former employees. The letter was published publicly on March 6, 2026.

Compliance Record and Enforcement Cooperation

The company stated that it has invested hundreds of millions of dollars building its compliance infrastructure. Over 1,500 specialists currently work across sanctions, counter-terrorism financing, and financial crime investigations.

Binance also deploys more than 25 advanced monitoring tools for transaction screening and behavioral analytics.

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In 2025, the exchange processed more than 71,000 law enforcement requests globally. Over the past three years, it also assisted in seizing more than $752 million in illicit assets, with nearly $579 million recovered for U.S. agencies. These figures reflect a broad commitment to supporting law enforcement operations worldwide.

Richard Teng, Binance’s CEO, addressed the matter publicly on social media. He wrote, “We’ve voluntarily responded to Senator Blumenthal’s inquiry which raises false and defamatory allegations reported by the WSJ.” He further noted that the company’s response was meant to protect its more than 300 million users.

Additionally, blockchain analytics data showed that Binance’s exposure to illicit wallets dropped from 0.284% to just 0.009% of total exchange volume between January 2024 and July 2025.

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That represents a decrease of nearly 97% over the period. Exposure to major Iranian crypto exchanges also fell by 97.3% in two years, from $4.19 million to $110,000.

The response also referenced the T3 Financial Crime Unit, which froze over $300 million in its first year of operation alone. This network operates in real time and acts before tainted funds can move further in the system.

Hexa Whale, Blessed Trust, and Employee Matters

Regarding the two entities named in the Senator’s letter, Binance clarified that both investigations began following law enforcement inquiries.

In April 2025, law enforcement flagged wallet addresses with potential terrorist financing ties. Binance then launched a comprehensive internal review that went beyond the original request. Hexa Whale was subsequently offboarded on August 13, 2025.

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Similarly, the Blessed Trust investigation began in summer 2025 after a separate law enforcement request. After a thorough source of funds analysis, Binance offboarded the entity in January 2026. The company stated that no Binance account had transacted directly with an Iran-based entity in either case.

On the Iranian account allegation, the company was direct. The WSJ claim that Binance identified 2,000 Iranian-linked accounts was described as false.

The company suspects the claim relates to its ongoing efforts to detect VPN circumvention rather than any confirmed Iranian user base. All users must complete mandatory identity verification to use the platform.

On employee matters, the company confirmed that some compliance staff had recently left. Most departures were voluntary resignations.

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One employee was terminated for leaking internal user data, not for raising compliance concerns. The company stated clearly that no workers were dismissed for escalating issues internally.

Binance closed its response by affirming its continued commitment to compliance improvements, law enforcement cooperation, and user protection across the global crypto ecosystem.

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Bitcoin Data Shows Why 3-Year Holders Avoid Losses

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Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Adoption, Markets, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Cryptocurrency Investment

Bitcoin (BTC) gets a bad name among some investors due to its steep double-digit drawdowns that punish late buyers, but data suggests the outcome can change with time.

Since 2017, investors who bought BTC near the market highs faced losses of about 40%–50% in the next two years, but data shows many of those positions turned profitable when held for longer than three years.

By contrast, entries near bear-market lows have historically produced triple-digit percentage returns over similar two to three-year periods. Onchain valuation metrics further help explain where these stronger accumulation zones tend to appear.

Bitcoin cycle data reveals how entry timing affects gains

Bitcoin’s (BTC) long-term performance appears volatile across the shorter two-year holding period. The cycle comparisons show a massive change when the positions extend to three years.

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Investors who bought near the 2017 market peak faced a 48.6% loss after two years during the 2018 bear market. Extending the holding period to three years turned that position into a 108.7% gain.

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Adoption, Markets, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Cryptocurrency Investment
Bitcoin two-year and three-year drawdowns and returns. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

A similar trajectory appeared in the next market cycle. Buyers entering near the 2021 high recorded losses of 43.5% after two years. By the third year, the same entry produced a 14.5% profit.

The entries near bear-market lows generated far larger gains. Buying close to the 2019 bottom produced returns of 871% after two years and 1,028% after three years.

The 2022 cycle low followed a comparable path. Buy positions initiated near that period generated roughly 465% returns after two years and about 429% after three years.

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Adoption, Markets, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Cryptocurrency Investment
Bitcoin entry and net returns over two to three years. Source: Cointelegraph

Together, the data highlighted a consistent pattern. Two-year windows expose investors to large drawdowns when entries occur near cycle highs. Three-year holding periods historically move most entries into positive territory, while bottom entries capture the strongest price expansion in both holding periods.

Related: These 4 Bitcoin charts say BTC price is forming a bottom

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BTC realized price zones guide bottom entries

BTC’s onchain valuation metrics help identify where these bottom entries have historically occurred.

Bitcoin’s realized price measures the average acquisition price of coins based on their last onchain movement. Deeper drawdowns frequently extend toward the shifted realized price, which smooths the metric forward and highlights the stronger value zones.

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Adoption, Markets, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Cryptocurrency Investment
Bitcoin realized price bands. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

These bands have identified long-term accumulation ranges since 2015. Bitcoin’s realized price currently sits near $55,000, while the shifted realized price is around $42,000.

Since 2015, Bitcoin’s realized price bands have repeatedly coincided with the cycle lows, with the price recoveries from these zones initiating multi-year rallies.

The behavior connects closely with the earlier return data. Investors who accumulated near bear-market lows typically entered while the price traded around or below these valuation bands.

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Institutional research also highlighted the role of longer holding periods. Bitwise chief information officer Matt Hougan cited a study showing that adding Bitcoin to a traditional 60/40 portfolio increased cumulative and risk-adjusted returns in every three-year period studied. The win rate is 93% across two-year periods, with a roughly 5% allocation producing the strongest balance.

A separate Bitwise review of Bitcoin data from July 2010 through February 2026 showed the probability of loss falls to 0.7% when BTC is held for three years. The risk drops to 0.2% over five years and reaches zero across ten-year holding periods.

The shorter horizons carry more uncertainty. Day traders historically faced a 47.1% chance of losses, while the one-year holding periods still showed a 24.3% probability of being underwater.

Related: Bitcoin bears ‘annihilated’ as analysis sees $65K support test next

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