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Bitcoin price eyes reversal as IFP indicator flips bullish

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Bitcoin price eyes trend reversal as key indicator confirms bullish golden cross setup - 1

Bitcoin price is showing early signs of a possible trend shift after a key on-chain indicator flashed a rare bullish signal, even as the market continues to consolidate.

Summary

  • Bitcoin’s Inter-exchange Flow Pulse crossed above its 90-day moving average for the first time since early 2025.
  • BTC is consolidating between $67K and $72K after a sharp drop from the $95K region.
  • A breakout above $72K could open the path toward the $75K–$78K resistance zone.

Bitcoin (BTC) was changing hands at around $70,080 at the time of writing. That represents a 3.7% decline over the past 24 hours. Even so, the price remains close to the top of its weekly trading band, which currently spans from $63,176 to $73,669.

Short-term weakness hasn’t erased the gains seen over the past week. BTC is still up about 5.8% during that period. Over the last month, however, the trend is slightly negative, with the asset down around 8%. Compared with its October 2025 peak of $126,080, Bitcoin is still trading roughly 44% below its all-time high.

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Market participation has also slowed. During the last 24 hours, trading volume dropped to $47.99 billion, a decline of more than 32%. Such pullbacks in activity are common during consolidation phases, when traders step back and wait for clearer direction.

The derivatives market tells a similar story. Data from CoinGlass shows trading volume in derivatives contracts falling by 23% to $72 billion. Open interest also slipped, declining 8% to $45 billion as some leveraged positions were closed.

IFP indicator signals renewed risk appetite

Amid this quieter market environment, fresh on-chain data is drawing attention. Analysts at CryptoQuant report that Bitcoin’s Inter-exchange Flow Pulse has moved above its 90-day moving average.

The shift marks the first time the metric has crossed that level in roughly a year, according to a March 6 report by CryptoQuant contributor RugaResearch.

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To understand why this matters, it helps to look at what the indicator measures. The IFP tracks Bitcoin transfers between spot exchanges and derivatives platforms.

A rise in flows toward derivatives venues often signals that traders are preparing leveraged positions in anticipation of potential upside. When the movement heads toward spot exchanges instead, speculation in the market usually declines.

Looking back at historical data adds more context. Since 2016, similar IFP crossovers have frequently appeared near the early stages of bullish cycles. That said, the signal does not always translate into immediate price rallies. In some cases, the market took time to react.

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The indicator had spent nearly a full year below its long-term average before this latest development. It turned bearish in early 2025 and remained there throughout much of the year, making it one of the longest negative stretches recorded for the metric.

Bitcoin price technical analysis

On the price chart, Bitcoin appears to be stabilizing after a steep fall earlier in the year. The drop began in the $95,000–$100,000 range and eventually pushed the price down to around $63,000, where buyers finally stepped in.

Since reaching that level, price movement has been largely sideways. This type of behavior often signals that selling pressure is easing while demand slowly returns.

Bitcoin price eyes trend reversal as key indicator confirms bullish golden cross setup - 1
Bitcoin daily chart. Credit: crypto.news

For several weeks now, BTC has traded within a relatively tight corridor between $67,000 and $72,000. Markets often behave this way during accumulation phases, when participants quietly re-position before the next significant move.

The immediate hurdle sits at $72,000. If buyers manage to push the price above that level and secure a strong daily close, a breakout from the range could follow. In that case, attention would likely shift toward the $75,000–$78,000 region, where another supply zone is expected.

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Below the current price, support continues to hold around $67,000. A deeper demand area can be found near $63,000, the same region that previously stopped the earlier sell-off.

That dip toward $63,000 may not have been accidental. In many markets, prices briefly fall below a key support level to trigger stop-loss orders before reversing direction.

This type of move is often referred to as a liquidity sweep. Bitcoin quickly rebounded after touching that area, reclaiming $67,000 soon afterward as buying pressure absorbed the sell-off.

Volatility has also been shrinking as the range tightens. Historically, quieter phases like this tend to precede stronger directional moves.

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A breakout above $72,000 would likely strengthen bullish momentum and open the path toward higher resistance levels. On the other hand, losing support at $67,000 could weaken the recovery structure and bring the $63,000 demand zone back into focus.

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Trump’s National Cyber Strategy Backs Crypto and Blockchain

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Crypto Breaking News

The US administration released its National Cyber Strategy on Friday, signaling that crypto and blockchain technologies are now explicitly targeted for protection and secure integration within the nation’s digital infrastructure. Industry executives say the emphasis could shape policy levers ranging from funding for security research to potential enforcement actions. The six-page document frames the crypto ecosystem not only as a financial frontier but as a critical layer in national security, calling for secure supply chains and privacy protections from design to deployment. As crypto firms digest the implications, questions linger about how the administration will balance innovation with controls on privacy tools, mixers, and unregulated off-ramps.

Among the bold lines, the strategy states a commitment to “build secure technologies and supply chains that protect user privacy from design to deployment, including supporting the security of cryptocurrencies and blockchain technologies.” That clause, highlighted by industry observers as a first for a US cybersecurity framework, signals a potential opening for closer public-private collaboration on security standards. Yet, the policy also contains tougher language about criminal infrastructure and the denial of financial exits for illicit actors, a section that some analysts say could justify crackdowns on privacy-focused tools and crypto mixers in the longer run.

“We will build secure technologies and supply chains that protect user privacy from design to deployment, including supporting the security of cryptocurrencies and blockchain technologies.”

For Galaxy Digital’s head of firmwide research, the wording is a telling shift. Alex Thorn argued that explicitly naming crypto and blockchain as technologies to be protected marks a milestone in how Washington views the sector’s role in national security. The broader document, the industry veteran noted in a post, maps a future where cybersecurity risk management dovetails with crypto governance, potentially guiding federal engagement with crypto firms and infrastructure projects.

Another thread running through the document concerns resilience against emerging threats, notably quantum computing. Castle Island Ventures founder Nic Carter has been vocal about quantum risk to Bitcoin and the broader crypto ecosystem. In a take that aligns with the strategy’s emphasis on modernizing federal information systems, Carter pointed to the section calling for “post-quantum cryptography, zero-trust architecture, and cloud transition” as proof that policymakers are taking quantum threats seriously. “Sure seems like they’re taking quantum seriously. Nothing to worry about, I’m sure,” he said on X.

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Bitcoin’s quantum risk lens tightens policy dialogue

The strategy’s posture toward quantum resilience comes at a time when the industry has debated how close practical quantum computing is to undermining current cryptographic underpinnings. Carter’s views reflect a broader tension inside the crypto community: balancing the need for robust, future-proof security with the practicalities of ongoing network upgrades and governance. The document’s emphasis on post-quantum cryptography is not merely an academic exercise; it foreshadows potential standards for federal and industry-grade security that could ripple through crypto custody, exchanges, and other critical components of the ecosystem.

In the same breath, the strategy reframes AI as a frontier technology that warrants careful risk management and innovation safeguards. The document states, “We will secure the AI technology stack—including our data centers—and promote innovation in AI security.” For crypto developers and asset managers, that phrasing suggests a growing overlap between AI-enabled security tooling, data integrity, and the safeguarding of sensitive financial information within crypto networks.

Beyond technology, the strategy highlights the importance of recruiting the next generation of cyber professionals to design and deploy advanced cyber technologies. This workforce emphasis mirrors a broader policy objective of aligning national security priorities with a vibrant tech economy, including the crypto sector, which relies on sophisticated cryptography, secure software supply chains, and resilient cloud infrastructure.

Market context

Market participants are watching how this policy direction translates into practical steps. The strategy’s emphasis on secure technologies and anti-criminal enforcement may influence risk sentiment, regulator expectations, and capital flows within crypto markets. While the document stops short of prescribing specific new rules, its signaling—particularly around post-quantum security, zero-trust architectures, and secure supply chains—could shape future standards, audits, and compliance requirements for crypto firms and their service providers.

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Why it matters

For crypto users and investors, the strategy’s framework could translate into clearer security expectations and potentially more formal coordination between government agencies and the private sector on safeguarding digital assets. Acknowledging crypto and blockchain as technologies warranting protection might open avenues for collaboration on security research, testing, and standard-setting, helping to reduce systemic risk in the space.

For builders and operators, the document signals that security-by-design will be a central theme in any future regulatory guidance. Post-quantum readiness, zero-trust adoption, and robust cloud migration plans could become de facto prerequisites for governmental contracts, subsidies, or public-private partnerships, shaping how wallets, exchanges, and custody solutions structure their software, audits, and incident-response playbooks.

From a policy perspective, the juxtaposition of safeguarding innovation with criminal offense enforcement creates a dynamic tension. The “uproar against criminal infrastructure” language may push policymakers to balance privacy rights with anti-money-laundering goals, a debate that will likely surface in regulatory conversations and legislative proposals in the months ahead. Market participants will need to watch not only for new rules but for how agencies interpret and implement the strategy’s guardrails across different fiscal cycles and political winds.

What to watch next

  • Implementation details on the post-quantum cryptography rollout and zero-trust adoption across federal information systems.
  • Guidance or proposed regulations related to privacy-focused tools, mixers, and off-ramps for digital assets.
  • Standards development and collaboration efforts between government agencies and crypto industry participants on secure supply chains.
  • Budget allocations or policy actions that fund cybersecurity research relevant to crypto infrastructure.

Sources & verification

  • President Trump’s Cyber Strategy for America (White House PDF): https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/President-Trumps-Cyber-Strategy-for-America.pdf
  • Galaxy Digital’s Alex Thorn on crypto security in the strategy: https://x.com/intangiblecoins/status/2030078133303455922?s=20
  • Nic Carter on quantum readiness and policy emphasis: https://x.com/nic_carter/status/2030091238742053115?s=20
  • Bitcoin quantum risk discussion and institutional concerns: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-quantum-computing-risk-institutions-developers
  • Bitcoin price context referenced in coverage: https://cointelegraph.com/bitcoin-price

National Cyber Strategy reframes crypto under security and quantum guardrails

The six-page document makes it clear that the administration views cryptography, digital assets, and blockchain as components of critical national infrastructure rather than peripheral technologies. While the exact regulatory path remains to be seen, the emphasis on post-quantum readiness and secure, privacy-conscious design sets a baseline for how federal agencies intend to engage with the crypto ecosystem. Industry voices have already started parsing the strategy’s language for practical implications—ranging from research funding opportunities to potential investigations into privacy-preserving architectures and on-ramps.

The strategy’s commitment to privacy-by-design, coupled with its tough stance on combatting illicit financial activity, positions the policy as a pivot point for the sector. Whether this translates into collaboration on cryptographic standards or a tightening of enforcement around privacy tools remains to be seen. What is clear is that the policy framework now recognizes crypto and blockchain as central to national security considerations, not just speculative technologies with speculative risk profiles.

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Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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$35M Corporate Crypto Bet Crashes, CFO Gets Prison Sentence

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Nexo Partners with Bakkt for US Crypto Exchange and Yield Programs

TLDR:

  • Former CFO diverted $35M into DeFi lending platforms despite company policy requiring conservative investments.
  • Crypto investments promising 20% yields collapsed within weeks, wiping out nearly all of the company funds.
  • The software firm laid off 60 employees after the financial losses triggered a major restructuring.
  • A federal court sentenced the executive to two years and ordered repayment of the full $35,000,100.

A former chief financial officer has received a two-year prison sentence after diverting $35 million in company funds into risky cryptocurrency investments. 

U.S. federal prosecutors said the executive secretly transferred the money to a DeFi platform he controlled. The funds quickly collapsed in value after being placed in high-yield crypto lending protocols. 

The case exposes how unauthorized crypto bets can devastate corporate finances.

CFO Moves $35M Into DeFi Lending Platforms

Nevin Shetty served as chief financial officer at a private software company beginning in March 2021. The firm raised capital to support growth and product development.

Company leadership adopted an investment policy designed to protect those funds. The policy restricted investments to conservative instruments such as money market accounts.

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According to the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Western District of Washington, Shetty helped draft that policy. However, he later transferred company funds into a cryptocurrency venture he secretly controlled.

Court records show Shetty launched a side company called HighTower Treasury in early 2022. The business had no outside customers.

Between April 1 and April 12, 2022, Shetty ordered wire transfers totaling $35,000,100 from a Chase branch near his home. The funds moved into HighTower Treasury accounts.

Prosecutors said Shetty then deployed the money across decentralized finance lending protocols. These platforms advertised yields exceeding 20 percent.

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HighTower planned to return a smaller fixed payment to the software company. Shetty and his partner would keep the remaining profits.

Federal prosecutors stated the arrangement allowed Shetty to personally benefit from returns generated with company funds.

Crypto Investments Collapse Within Weeks

Initial results appeared profitable. According to court filings, the strategy generated roughly $133,000 in profits during the first month.

However, the DeFi investments soon deteriorated. Crypto market losses rapidly erased the value of the positions.

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By May 13, 2022, the investment portfolio had nearly reached zero value. Almost the entire $35 million disappeared.

After the collapse, Shetty informed two fellow executives about the transfers. The company dismissed him immediately.

The financial damage forced the firm to restructure operations. Court documents state the company laid off around 60 employees after the loss.

The U.S. Attorney’s Office described the scheme as a calculated fraud carried out over several months. Prosecutors argued Shetty misled colleagues and financial institutions during the transfers.

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Following a nine-day trial, a jury convicted Shetty in November 2025 on four counts of wire fraud. Federal investigators from the FBI’s Seattle field office supported the case.

A federal judge sentenced Shetty to two years in prison and ordered repayment of $35,000,100. He will serve three years of supervised release after prison.

The court also barred him from serving as a corporate officer without approval from a probation officer.

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BTC in deep bear market, could crash by another 30%, investment firm says

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BTC in deep bear market, could crash by another 30%, investment firm says

Bitcoin is firmly in the deepest phase of the bear market and the pain may worsen, according to CK Zheng, founder of crypto investment firm ZX Squared Capital.

“Bitcoin’s price is convincingly in deep bear market territory now. We expect a further 30% price drop during 2026 as the Iran war started,” Zheng told CoinDesk in an email, citing the “four-year cycle” as one of the key catalysts.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency has already nearly halved since hitting a record high of over $126,000 in October last year, according to CoinDesk data. As of writing, it changed hands at around $68,000.

The four-year bitcoin cycle

Crypto investors often talk about the “four-year cycle” – a pattern in which prices surge, crash, and then recover, centred on the quadrennial mining reward halving.

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The halving, most recently implemented in April 2024, is a programmed event that halves bitcoin’s supply expansion rate every 4 years. As of today, 3.125 BTC are emitted as rewards for each block mined on the Bitcoin network, down from the original 50 BTC at launch after four halving events to date.

Historically, bitcoin’s price has tended to peak about 16–18 months after a halving, followed by a bear market that typically lasts about a year.

BTC topping out in October last year, roughly 18 months after the April 2024 halving, means the cycle is playing out again. So, the bear market could deepen in the near term.

Zheng said that the cycle is proving very difficult to break. According to him, the reason is simple: human psychology.

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“The “Four-year crypto cycle” momentum is gaining strength and is extremely difficult to break due to individual investors’ psychological behaviors,” Zheng said.

Individual investors tend to behave in predictable ways — buying during hype and selling during panic. That behavior reinforces the boom-and-bust four-year pattern that has defined crypto markets for more than a decade.

Because of this, Zheng said bitcoin still trades more like a speculative asset than a safe haven like gold.

He added that the institutional adoption of bitcoin remains very slow and limited in scope at this stage and warned that some firms that have purchased bitcoin as a treasury asset may be forced to sell, leading to a deeper price sell-off.

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“The total size of crypto ETFs and Digital Asset Treasury companies is only around 10% of the whole crypto market. Some Digital Asset Treasury firms may be forced to sell cryptos to meet certain debt servicing requirements during this bear market, which may create a vicious cycle,” Zheng said.

For now, Zheng’s outlook is clear: crypto’s bear market may have further to run before the next cycle begins.

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Is XRP at Risk of Falling Below $1?

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XRP Exchange Netflow


“Our long-term target is $0.9000,” one analyst stated.

Ripple’s XRP has registered a minor uptick over the past week, coinciding with the broader cryptocurrency market’s revival.

However, some analysts believe its price may decline sharply in the near future and even fall below the psychological $1 level.

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New Pullback Ahead?

Earlier this week, XRP tried to reclaim the $1.50 mark but failed and now trades at around $1.39 (per CoinGecko’s data). The asset’s market capitalization stands at approximately $85 billion, making it the fourth-biggest cryptocurrency, trailing behind BTC, ETH, and USDT.

One person who has been closely monitoring its performance is the X user TradingShot. In their view, XRP has been moving within a downward channel throughout its entire bear cycle, which, according to the chart, began in July 2025 – shortly after the price reached its all-time high of over $3.65.

TradingShot noted that the severe decline in February this year hit the previous target on the 1W MA200, suggesting the asset’s next potential pullback may lead to a further drop to the 1M MA100 support, set at under $0.90.

“This level is critical as it formed the June 2022 bottom of the previous Bear Cycle. Our long-term Target is $0.9000,” the X user concluded.

X user WealthManager also presented a bearish forecast. They believe XRP looks “very dangerous” right now, warning that a “huge drop could be imminent.”

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Meanwhile, the prominent Bitcoin educator and advocate Adam Livingston spoke sharply against Ripple’s native cryptocurrency. He said he would rather have $100,000 in FTX customer refund claims than $100,000 in XRP.

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“At least SBF might send a heartfelt apology from prison before he dies of old age,” Livingston added.

The Bullish Scenario

Despite the pessimistic views some express toward XRP, many indicators suggest its price may head north soon. Numerous market observers pointed out that large investors have purchased almost 4.2 billion tokens (worth a whopping $5.7 billion at current rates) since the October 10 crash.

This development reduces the amount of XRP tokens available on the open market, and economic principles dictate that the valuation should rise if demand doesn’t diminish. Moreover, this shows that whales are confident in the asset and view lower prices as an opportunity, a signal that could encourage smaller players to follow suit.

XRP’s exchange netflow is next on the list. Over the past several weeks, outflows have consistently exceeded inflows, indicating that investors are moving their holdings off centralized platforms and into self-custody. This shift reduces the amount of coins immediately available for sale, easing short-term selling pressure.

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XRP Exchange NetflowXRP Exchange Netflow
XRP Exchange Netflow, Source: CoinGlass

The asset’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also worth mentioning. It has fallen to around 30 on a weekly scale, marking oversold territory that can sometimes be a precursor to a rally. On the other hand, ratios above 70 are considered bearish.

XRP RSIXRP RSI
XRP RSI, Source: CryptoWaves
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US National Cyber Strategy Pledges Support For Crypto And Blockchain

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Cryptocurrencies, United States, AI, Donald Trump, Quantum Computing

Crypto industry executives are combing through US President Donald Trump’s National Cyber Strategy after it was released on Friday, searching for hints about what it could signal for government support of the crypto industry.

“Crypto and blockchain are explicitly named as technologies to be ‘protected and secured.’ This is a first for any US cybersecurity strategy,” Galaxy Digital’s head of firmwide research Alex Thorn said in an X post on Friday.

Crypto and blockchain were mentioned once in the six-page report:

“We will build secure technologies and supply chains that protect user privacy from design to deployment, including supporting the security of cryptocurrencies and blockchain technologies.”

However, industry executives have also been interpreting other parts of the document to see how they relate to crypto.

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Cryptocurrencies, United States, AI, Donald Trump, Quantum Computing
Source: Mark Chadwick

Thorn pointed to a section pledging to “uproot criminal infrastructure and deny financial exit and safe haven.” “This language could easily justify crackdowns on mixers, privacy coins, and unregulated off-ramps,” he said.

Bitcoin VC points out that quantum has been taken “seriously”

Castle Island Ventures founder Nic Carter, who has been vocal about the threat of quantum computing to Bitcoin (BTC) in recent times, pointed to the section saying the government “will accelerate the modernization, defensibility, and resilience of federal information systems by implementing cybersecurity best practices, post-quantum cryptography, zero-trust architecture, and cloud transition.”

“Sure seems like they’re taking quantum seriously. Nothing to worry about, I’m sure,” Carter said in an X post.

It comes as the crypto industry continues to debate about how close quantum computing is to being a serious threat to Bitcoin. On Feb. 15, Carter said that major Bitcoin-holding institutions may eventually lose patience with Bitcoin developers for not addressing quantum computing concerns quickly enough.

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Trump points to the next generation as a priority

Trump said that the National Cyber Security outlines his priorities for “ensuring that America remains unrivaled in cyberspace.” Artificial intelligence was a key focus of the report.

“We will secure the AI technology stack—including our data centers—and promote innovation in AI security,” it said.

Related: Community banks and crypto industry ‘are allies’ in CLARITY Act debate: Exec

Trump also emphasized the importance of recruiting the next generation of workers in the cyber workforce to “design and deploy exquisite cyber technologies and solutions.”

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The US typically releases a national cybersecurity strategy every administration, outlining the government’s priorities for emerging technologies.

Magazine: The debate over Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is over: Benjamin Cowen