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Kalshi sued over $54M Iran leader bets after ‘death carveout’

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Kalshi sued over $54M Iran leader bets after ‘death carveout’

Kalshi is facing a $54 million class action lawsuit after traders accused the prediction market of invoking a “death carveout” clause to avoid paying bets tied to the killing of Iran’s supreme leader, according to reporting from Reuters.

Kalshi was sued in federal court Thursday over contracts that asked whether Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would leave office before March 1, 2026, according to a class action complaint.

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Khamenei, 85, was killed Saturday in U.S.-Israeli strikes that left hundreds dead, including top Iranian officials. The strikes occurred under Operation Epic Fury.

The lawsuit says customers were drawn to what it calls the “Khamenei Market” because of the shifting geopolitical situation with Iran’s leadership. It alleges that, after Khamenei was killed, Kalshi invoked a “death carveout” provision to avoid paying customers what they were owed.

JUDGE BLOCKS META FROM INTRODUCING ‘EXAGGERATED’ CLAIMS IN SOCIAL MEDIA TRIAL

iranian-supreme-leader-ali-khamenei

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei addresses the nation in a state television broadcast June 18, 2025, in Tehran, Iran.  (Office of the Supreme Leader of Iran via Getty Images / Getty Images)

“With an American naval armada amassed on Iran’s doorstep and military conflict not merely foreseeable but widely anticipated, consumers understood that the most likely — and in many cases the only realistic — mechanism by which an 85-year-old autocratic leader would ‘leave office’ was through his death,” the lawsuit states.

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“Defendants understood this as well.”

The complaint argues the contract language was “clear, unambiguous and binary” and accuses Kalshi of “deceptive” and “predatory” conduct.

APPLE IMPLEMENTING AGE VERIFICATION TOOL TO ENSURE USERS ARE 18 AND UP FOR SOME APPS

Election Day bets shown in Times Square

A billboard for Kalshi showing 2024 U.S. presidential election odds across from the Nasdaq MarketSite in New York Nov. 6, 2024. (Michael Nagle/Bloomberg via Getty Images / Getty Images)

The lawsuit was filed in the U.S. District Court for the Central District of California.

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The company’s CEO, Tarek Mansour, on Saturday defended the “death carveout,” saying it “keeps the rules simple.” He also said Kalshi would reimburse all fees from the Khamenei market.

Prediction markets have exploded in popularity since the 2024 U.S. election, when their real-time probabilities proved more accurate than polling in forecasting Donald Trump’s victory, according to Reuters.

Iranian Shahed Drones

Two Iranian-made unmanned aerial vehicles are displayed at Azadi Square during a rally to mark the 44th anniversary of the victory of Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution, in Tehran, Iran, Feb. 11, 2023.  (Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto via Getty Images / Getty Images)

Platforms like Kalshi offer tradable yes-or-no contracts tied to real-world events ranging from politics and sports to the economy. Contracts typically cost between zero and 100 cents and pay out if a specified outcome is confirmed.

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Kalshi did not immediately respond to FOX Business’ request for comment.

Reuters contributed to this reporting.

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I have a masters degree in Analytics from Northwestern University and a bachelors degree in Accounting. I have worked in the investment arena for over 10 years starting as an analyst and working my way up to a management role. Dividend investing is a personal hobby and I look forward to sharing my thoughts with the Seeking Alpha community.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of SBAC, PAYX, NKE, ACN, ADP, MKC, PEP either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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