Biggest one-day gain in six years as the Middle East conflict disrupts key oil infrastructure and Strait of Hormuz traffic

The price of oil has surpassed the $100 threshold for the first time since the energy crisis in 2022, with analysts warning the economic ramifications could exceed those of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil, jumped more than 25 per cent to peaks of $118 per barrel as the week’s trading commenced in Asia – representing the commodity’s largest single-day rise in six years.

The latest spike occurred as the Middle East conflict continued to strike crucial oil infrastructure, prompting nations to reduce production whilst movement through the vital Strait of Hormuz – through which approximately a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes – has virtually ceased.

Kuwait’s state oil company announced over the weekend it was reducing output, whilst the United Arab Emirates’ state-run oil firm stated it was “managing” some output, indicating potential production reductions.

In 2022, Brent crude momentarily exceeded $120 a barrel and reached peaks of $145 a barrel in 2008, with both movements resulting in significant repercussions for the global economy, as reported by City AM.

Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, observed Iraq was now producing a quarter of the oil it generated before the US and Israel attacks on Iran, at 1.3m barrels per day down from 4.3m.

“This is roughly three per cent of global oil supply lost in a single event. Shockingly, this is worse than the oil supply situation after Russia attacked Ukraine.”

Wall Street giant Goldman Sachs has predicted the price of oil could surpass the $150 threshold by year-end if the Middle East conflict remains unresolved.

Analysts at the investment bank have cautioned the ramifications of the US and Israel’s confrontation with Iran could prove 17 times more severe than the April 2022 peak, when global economies grappled with an energy crisis following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Goldman Sachs had anticipated that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz would decline to 15 per cent of normal levels. However, the Iranian blockade has meant only ten per cent of oil shipments that typically transit the waterway have managed to pass through.

On Friday evening, analysts at the Wall Street powerhouse issued a note stating: “Based on these new data, developments and the size of the shock, we now think that oil prices would likely exceed $100 next week if no signs of solutions emerge by then”.

In a Truth Social post responding to the latest price spike, Donald Trump has described it as “a very small price to pay for USA, and world”.

The US president declared the oil price rises “will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over”. Elsewhere, the Financial Times has reported that G7 finance ministers are poised to discuss a potential co-ordinated release of petroleum from reserves, overseen by the International Energy Agency in an urgent meeting today, aiming to address soaring oil prices amidst conflict in the Middle East.

The ministers and Faith Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency, are anticipated to conduct a call at 8:30am New York time to explore strategies to alleviate the impact of the Iran war.