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F&O Talk: Nifty has slipped below its crucial support, says Sudeep Shah; picks 5 stocks for next week

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F&O Talk: Nifty has slipped below its crucial support, says Sudeep Shah; picks 5 stocks for next week
The Indian benchmark indices sharply recovered most of their losses to close with slight cuts in as oil prices and bond yields cooled off following a report on efforts to reach a temporary Iran-US deal.

Sensex, which had dropped around 740 points in the morning, recovered 622 points to close at 74,782. Nifty 50, which had fallen below 23,250, rebounded 167 points to end the session near 23,400. Despite the sharp recovery, the Indian stock market overall closed in the red, with Sensex down 121 points and Nifty down 80 points.

Analyst Sudeep Shah, Vice President and Head of Technical & Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, interacted with ETMarkets regarding the outlook for the Nifty, options data as well as an index strategy for the upcoming week. The following are the edited excerpts from his chat:

1.) Nifty down 2% this week, how are charts looking and what strategy should traders adopt?

For the fifth consecutive week, the benchmark index Nifty ended in negative territory, reflecting the persistent weakness in market sentiment. The index declined nearly 2% during the week and formed a sizeable bearish candle with a lower shadow, indicating that despite some buying interest at lower levels, selling pressure continues to dominate the broader trend. However, domestic equities did not weaken in isolation, with overseas developments further exacerbating market pressure.
Those global developments were dominated by the escalation in geopolitical tensions between US and Iran. Brent crude oil prices witnessed a sharp surge, while the US 10-year bond yield climbed to 4.97%, its highest level since October 2023. The combination of rising crude prices, elevated bond yields and geopolitical uncertainty significantly dented investor sentiment. And as these concerns intensified, the selling pressure on Nifty gradually transformed from a controlled decline into a much sharper correction.

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That sharper correction becomes evident when we look at the index’s journey since its recent peak. After marking a high of 24,774 in the first week of August, Nifty gradually moved lower, with the pace of the decline accelerating significantly during the previous week. From its recent high, the index has tumbled more than 1,500 points, or over 6%, in just 29 trading sessions. The magnitude and speed of this fall have now started leaving a much clearer imprint on the index’s technical structure.
That deterioration is visible across multiple technical parameters. Nifty has slipped below its crucial short and long-term moving averages, reinforcing the bearish undertone. Momentum indicators and oscillators are also portraying a weak picture. The daily RSI is currently at 27.66 and remains in a falling mode, while the weekly RSI is approaching the crucial 40 mark and continues to trend lower. With momentum weakening across timeframes, the market is now approaching a zone where the next move could become particularly important.That makes the 23,100–23,000 zone a crucial area to watch in the coming sessions. This zone represents a strong confluence of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the previous rally from 22,182 to 24,774 and a prior swing low. A decisive break below the 23000 mark could open the door for further downside towards 22,800, followed by 22,500.

On the upside, the 23,600–23,650 zone will act as a crucial hurdle for the index. A sustained move above this zone could provide the first indication that the selling pressure is beginning to ease. Until then, the battle between the crucial support near 23,000 and resistance around 23,650 is likely to decide whether Nifty is preparing for a rebound or another leg of the correction.

2.) Given the uncertainty around Iran war and rising yields, what should traders watch out for?

Given the uncertainty surrounding the Iran conflict and the recent rise in bond yields, traders should remain cautious and avoid taking overleveraged positions in the current volatile environment. Risk management and disciplined position sizing will be key until market conditions stabilize.

From a technical perspective, traders should closely monitor the 23,100-23,000 support zone on the Nifty, which remains a critical near-term level. A sustained breach below this range could lead to further downside pressure, while holding above it may help the index stabilize and attempt a recovery.

3.) India VIX has climbed 13% in the last 5 days. What is it indicating?

India VIX has given a breakout from a downward-sloping trendline on the daily chart. The volatility index had found strong support in the 9.7–9.5 zone and subsequently consolidated within a narrow range before starting to move higher. The recent rise in volatility comes amid heightened tensions in the Middle East, rising crude oil prices and higher bond yields in the US and Japan.

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Despite the prolonged uncertain environment, Indian VIX has so far remained relatively subdued and has not reacted as sharply as one might have expected. From a technical perspective, it is still too early to conclude that we are witnessing the beginning of a significant spike in volatility. However, a sustained move above the 13–13.5 zone could signal a meaningful rise in volatility and potentially have a stronger impact on broader market movements.

4.) Metal stocks witnessed downturn on Friday after bond yields rose. How can one trade Vedanta, Hindustan Copper, NALCO, and Vedanta Aluminum?

Vedanta slipped below its 200-day EMA during the session, but strong buying at lower levels helped the stock reclaim and close above this key long-term moving average. The stock has largely been consolidating in the Rs 250–290 range for nearly two months. A decisive breakout on either side of this range will provide further directional cues.

Hindustan Copper has been forming a symmetrical triangle pattern on the weekly chart. The Rs 620–630 zone is likely to act as immediate resistance, while Rs 460–470 is likely to provide immediate support. The falling ADX indicates a lack of strong directional volatility. A decisive breakout from the triangle will provide further directional cues.

NALCO has been witnessing a phase of distribution following a strong run. The stock has been consolidating within a broad Rs 329–445 range since the beginning of the year, largely oscillating within this band. A decisive breakout on either side of the range will provide further directional cues.

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Vedanta Aluminium continues to have a relatively weak technical setup. Since its demerger, the stock has largely remained sideways to bearish. The Rs 428–430 zone is likely to act as immediate resistance. As long as the stock trades below this zone, the overall bias is likely to remain weak.

5.) Can you pick 5 stocks that look good on the charts for the coming week?

Based on the current technical setup, LIC Housing Finance, Emcure Pharmaceuticals, Five-Star Business Finance, VA Tech Wabag and PNB Housing Finance are among the stocks that appear well-positioned for the coming week.

(This article has been written by Veer Sharma, who is not a SEBI-registered Research Analyst or an Investment Adviser. Veer Sharma and his/her ‘relative(s)’ (as defined under Section 2(77) of the Companies Act, 2013) do not hold any financial interest in the companies mentioned in this article as of the date of publication. The views/recommendations mentioned in this article, wherever applicable, are those of the respective SEBI-registered Research Analyst/brokerage and have been reproduced/reported with due attribution. They should not be construed as the views or recommendations of The Economic Times Digital or the journalist. Readers are advised to consider the original research report and make their investment decisions based on their own assessment. Brokerage disclaimers here

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Business & Hussles

Develop sets $458 million growth capital budget

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Develop sets $458 million growth capital budget

Growth will continue at Bill Beament-led Develop Global in FY27, following the release of its guidance metrics for the upcoming year.

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Dave & Buster’s interim CFO Cory Hatton buys $25,999 in stock

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Dave & Buster’s interim CFO Cory Hatton buys $25,999 in stock

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Market veterans favour value plays over crowded, expensive themes

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Market veterans favour value plays over crowded, expensive themes
After two difficult years for Indian equities, there is scope for reasonable returns as valuations turn less demanding, according to senior market participants who spoke to ET. Large caps look better placed, while the outlook is more cautious on mid- and small-caps. Financials, manufacturing and consumption are among the preferred themes, while views on technology are sharply divided

NEELESH SURANA, CIO, Mirae Asset Mutual Fund

MARKET OUTLOOK: India looks better positioned than sentiment suggests and is a natural hedge against crowded AI trade. Valuations are no longer a headwind, while domestic fundamentals are sound. Any global trade rotation could be meaningful. Key risks are elevated crude, rising developed market bond yields, El Niño and heavy equity issuance. Overall, we expect low-teens returns.
PREFERRED INVESTMENT STRATEGY: Our strategy is a barbell, combining quality stocks with strong earnings upgrades at sensible valuations with holding sector leaders that have corrected over the past two years and are now in value zone.

THEMES LOOKING ATTRACTIVE: Banking, consumer discretionary, healthcare and manufacturing. Sector leaders, impacted by FPI selling over the last two years, are now attractive.

THEMES TO STAY AWAY FROM: Slow-growth or disruption prone sectors like consumer staples and IT. Cautious on narrative-driven, richly-valued sectors like capital goods.


Read more: Goldman Sachs identifies 42 Indian stocks riding AI build-out

JANAKIRAMAN RENGARAJU, CIO – India Equities Templeton Global Investments

MARKET OUTLOOK: The 12-month base case for Indian equities may not be quite euphoric, but it is constructive. Largecap valuations are more reasonable, while higher mid- and small-cap multiples call for greater prudence. Globally, the picture has deteriorated. Unresolved conflicts have entrenched inflationary pressures, while rising interest rates and heavy fiscal debt reinforce each other. Tariff uncertainty continues to cloud trade growth, while questions are emerging over the viability of massive AI investments, even as enthusiasm and valuations remain elevated.PREFERRED INVESTMENT STRATEGY: Adopt a tone of ‘cautious optimism’ over the medium term.

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THEMES LOOKING ATTRACTIVE: Financials, industrials and capital goods, consumption and electronic manufacturing, which are linked to capex pick up, rising affluence and credit growth.

THEMES TO STAY AWAY FROM: Avoid expensive small and mid-caps with weak cash generation and businesses dependent on endless equity funding.

Read more: SIPs offer steady gains as most fund categories beat benchmark indices

ANISH TAWAKLEY, CIO, DSP Mutual Fund

MARKET OUTLOOK: Economy remains in good shape, while valuations are now neutral. This should translate into reasonable market returns broadly in line with earnings growth.

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PREFERRED INVESTMENT STRATEGY: Don’t chase narratives that have already played out, rather look at sectors that have been underperforming since the last 2-3 years.

THEMES LOOKING ATTRACTIVE: Private banks, insurance companies, automobiles and cement.

THEMES TO STAY AWAY FROM: Careful about companies where promoters are diluting (either through primary or secondary sales) or where private equity is selling, including IPOs. Promoter dilution and PE sales happen when performance and valuations are close to peaks. Cautious on metals, IT and FMCG. For IT, the problem is not AI but the fact that Indian listed companies are losing market share to GCCs set up in India.

R SIVAKUMAR CIO, Axis Mutual Fund

MARKET OUTLOOK: The outlook is constructive. Economic slowdown over the last few quarters appears to be more cyclical than structural. Valuations in parts of the market remain elevated, particularly within mid- and small-caps.

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PREFERRED INVESTMENT STRATEGY: Alpha generation is likely to come from selective stock picking rather than broad market direction. A balanced approach across largecaps, which offer valuation comfort and resilience, and select mid-cap opportunities, which continue to deliver superior earnings growth, remains appropriate.

THEMES LOOKING ATTRACTIVE: Constructive on manufacturing, power and electrification, energy transition, select financials, particularly banks and capital-market-linked businesses, as well as export-oriented companies.

THEMES TO STAY AWAY FROM: Investors should avoid chasing momentum in overcrowded themes. In technology, we remain watchful of disruptions and pricing pressures emerging from AI-led changes in the global IT services landscape

SHANKAR SHARMA, Founder, GQuant

MARKET OUTLOOK: Barring occasional rallies, I do not see the Indian markets outperforming the world or even the peer group. The Vaibhav Suryavanshi Syndrome afflicts Indian companies: domestic success is mistaken for globally transferable skill. Largecaps have thrived on India’s easy pitch, building market capitalisation rather than global scale and brands. When domestic growth fades, competing overseas will require an entirely different mindset. There will be pockets where money is going to be made; but in aggregate, Indian returns will disappoint for the coming year.

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PREFERRED INVESTMENT STRATEGY: The future of the Indian stock market lies in getting “techified”. Tech has been my theme in the last 2 years since the bear market started in India and I have actually made money even in this very-very tough market. This is not going to change anytime soon. Pharmaceuticals is also going to be a good place to be in.

THEMES LOOKING ATTRACTIVE: For me, tech is 80% of the allocation and pharma is 20% and there is nothing else that I am interested in India.

THEMES TO STAY AWAY FROM: Companies which service the domestic Indian consumer. That trade is on its way out and this is not where I would deploy a lot of capital.

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Accountancy firm Hazlewoods move to larger offices in Cardiff to support expansion

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The firm has relocated to the South Gate House office scheme

The Cardiff team of Hazlewoods

Accountancy and business advisory firm Hazlewoods has relocated to larger offices in Cardiff to support expansion plans.

Having set up its first office in Wales at the Capital Tower office building in 2024, it has now moved its team of 34 to South Gate House.

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Tom Davies, director at Hazlewoods Cardiff, said: “This is an exciting step for Hazlewoods and reflects the progress we have made since launching in the city less than two years ago. We have built a very strong team here and have been really encouraged by the response from both new and existing clients, reflecting our commitment to developing deep relationships across the region.

“The new office gives us the space to continue growing while maintaining the collaborative approach that is such an important part of the way we work.”

Bruce Black, corporate tax director, said: “This move creates the environment we need to continue finding and developing local talent to build the team, while maintaining the high level of service our clients expect from Hazlewoods. It reflects just how positively the Cardiff office has developed in such a short space of time.

“The team in Cardiff has done a great job of growing the business and I look forward to seeing that continue. We have the expertise, ambition and people to build a really strong presence in Wales, and the new office gives the team a great base from which to do that.”

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Hazlewoods is one of the largest independent accountants and business advisers in the South West and Wales, with more than 600 employees and a growing presence in Cardiff, alongside its offices in Cheltenham and Bristol.

The firm provides audit, accounting, tax and advisory services to corporate and private clients and is particularly well known for its specialist sector expertise across the UK. Last year, the firm recorded a turnover of £54.3m.

Its managing partner, James Morter, said: “It has been very gratifying to see the way that Hazlewoods has been welcomed into Cardiff. Early on, we identified a gap in the Welsh market for a firm of our size and experience, and when you combine that with the talent pool in the city, it felt like a natural next step.”

Property advisory firm Knight Frank represented Hazlewoods on the deal, while its building consultancy team supported the fit-out of the new space.

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Mark Sutton, office agency partner at Knight Frank’s Cardiff office, said: “Hazlewoods was looking for a space that could support its continued growth in Wales, while offering excellent connectivity and the flexibility to create a workplace suited to its needs.

“South Gate House provided the right combination of quality space and a prime city-centre location, and it has been a pleasure to support the team through the move.”

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Perpetua Resources at Mining Forum Americas 2026: shift to construction

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Perpetua Resources at Mining Forum Americas 2026: shift to construction

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What Trump’s potential US diesel export ban could mean for you

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A driver returns a fuel nozzle after refueling a tractor trailer with diesel fuel at a Chevron truck stop in Tracy, California.

For the US economy, a ban could deliver short-term relief at the pump by flooding the domestic market with excess supply.

However, energy analysts warn it could backfire.

David Fyfe, chief economist at Argus Media, notes that cutting off American supply would likely cause international prices to skyrocket.

That would push up global freight, food, and industrial costs, ultimately “feeding inflation back into the global economy”.

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“At a stroke, the US’s reputation as a reliable supplier of energy to the world would be shot,” Fyfe added.

Removing more than a million barrels of daily American supply would trigger a fierce bidding war among importing nations in Latin America and Europe.

Sarah Raffoul, analytics manager at Argus Media, noted that while higher international prices would eventually curb demand, the immediate gap would severely strain trade relationships and accelerate global inflation.

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Greatland Resources at Mining Forum Americas 2026: cash-rich growth push

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Greatland Resources at Mining Forum Americas 2026: cash-rich growth push

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Canadian defence creating 250 jobs in Merthyr in new research alliance

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Its new research alliance is with two Welsh universities and one in Canada

Marshall Land Systems

Marshall Land Systems

A Canadian-owned defence firm which is relocating its UK production from Cambridge to South Wales has forged a new research alliance with universities on both sides of the Atlantic.

Marshall Land Systems, whose new factory site in Merthyr will reach production capacity at the end of the year with 160 staff, has set up the Marshall Land Research Alliance alongside the universities of Cardiff, South Wales, and New Brunswick in Canada.

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The firm’s deployable infrastructure ranges CT scanners and medical facilities to mechanical maintenance and command centres. Its new assembly plant was chosen after a UK-wide search, and will produce deployable infrastructure that will protect NATO personnel on operations, humanitarian missions, and on bases.

The alliance together leading academics and technology experts to explore new technologies in the field of deployable infrastructure for military and humanitarian use.

A signed memorandum of understanding will unable technology transfer, staff exchanges and joint research and development work.

Over the next five years, based on its current order book alone, Marshall is confident of growing its workforce in Merthyr to 250. However, with the UK Government and other countries committing more of their budgets to defence and security, Marshall is well positioned to win additional contracts that could see even more jobs created at its Merthyr site.

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The firm’s deployable infrastructure ranges CT scanners and medical facilities to mechanical maintenance and command centres.

Its new assembly plant was chosen after a UK-wide search, and will produce deployable infrastructure that will protect NATO personnel on operations, humanitarian missions, and on bases.

The average salary at the factory will be around £32,000, while Marshall is also looking to take on around 15 apprentices.

The firm has entered into a 15-year lease with the owner of the building, Figsand, with an option to acquire it. The Merthyr site extends to 191,600 sq ft and occupies 8.2 acres at Merthyr Industrial Park.

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Marshall Land Systems chief executive, Gareth Williams, said: “In an increasingly volatile world, the long-standing and fundamental alliance between Canada and the UK is becoming ever more important. As NATO allies invest to protect our way of life, this transatlantic research alliance will bring together the smartest brains in support of the effort to keep us safe and the world stable.

“We’re proud to be convening this vital joint work between Wales and New Brunswick under the Marshall Land Research Alliance.”

Professor Louise Bright, pro vice chancellor for enterprise, engagement, and partnerships at the University of South Wales, said:“We are proud to be a founding partner in the Marshall Land Research Alliance, a bold collaboration that will help shape the future of innovation, skills and advanced manufacturing in South Wales.

” USW’s strengths in research, advanced manufacturing and skills development position us to connect industry, talent and innovation in ways that deliver real impact.

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“This partnership will create valuable opportunities for our students and staff to work alongside leading industry partners on real-world challenges, while helping businesses develop the skills and expertise they need to grow.

“With Marshall Land Systems establishing a major new facility in South Wales, this Alliance comes at a pivotal moment for the region. Together, we can support innovation, expand opportunities for graduates and help drive long-term economic growth across Wales.”

Professor Roger Whitaker, Cardiff University’s pro vice-chancellor for research, innovation and enterprise, said: “Cardiff University is pleased to be a founding partner in the Marshall Land Research Alliance, bringing together academic and industry expertise to support research, innovation and skills development in areas including advanced manufacturing, engineering and defence.

The alliance provides opportunities for our staff to work with partners on research, innovation and workforce development. It also comes at an important time for South Wales, with the potential to support new collaborations between universities, industry and government.

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Through research, knowledge exchange and skills development, we hope to contribute to opportunities for students, graduate employment, businesses and communities, while supporting the long-term strength and resilience of the Welsh economy through research and innovation.”

Dr David MaGee, vice president research at the University of New Brunswick said: “We take great pride in fostering strong, mutually beneficial partnerships that help us make a meaningful impact in Canada and around the world. I look forward to working with Marshall Land Systems, Cardiff University, and the University of South Wales to advance innovative technologies and contribute to Canada’s NATO commitments.

“By leveraging our academic expertise and learning from our collaborators, we will address common challenges and create lasting benefits for our institutions, our industries, and our countries.”

As well as its Canadian and UK operations, Marshall Land Systems has a factory in the Netherlands. It currently has a global workforce of 600.

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Andreessen Horowitz backs AI-era college alternative with $42M

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Andreessen Horowitz backs AI-era college alternative with $42M

Andreessen Horowitz is putting $42 million behind a new education venture aimed at young tech builders who might otherwise head to college, betting that the artificial intelligence boom is creating demand for a different path into Silicon Valley.

The Horowitz Andreessen Academy, a for-profit company incubated by the venture capital firm known as a16z, plans to bring its first class of roughly 50 students to San Francisco in September 2027 for a tuition-free, one-year fellowship.

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Instead of relying heavily on traditional academic credentials, the academy says admissions will focus on what applicants have already built, shipped or earned. Students will spend much of the program working on projects and learning from technology executives and entrepreneurs rather than taking traditional tests and completing homework.

EMPLOYEES AT AI COMPANIES BACK BERNIE SANDERS BILL CRACKING DOWN ON DEVELOPMENT

Gagan Biyani speaks onstage at TechCrunch Disrupt SF 2015 in San Francisco in 2015

Gagan Biyani speaks at TechCrunch Disrupt SF 2015 in San Francisco on Sept. 23, 2015. (Steve Jennings/Getty Images for TechCrunch)

The approach represents a Silicon Valley experiment in how education could change as AI reshapes the skills companies seek from workers and founders.

“In our estimation, the AI revolution is going to be as transformational to jobs as the Industrial Revolution was to the agricultural society that came before it,” said Ben Horowitz, co-founder and general partner at a16z. “The training that worked for the Industrial Revolution isn’t going to map perfectly onto the AI revolution, so somebody has to pioneer how you train a person for this new world. That’s what we built the Academy to do. This isn’t just an investment idea for us. It’s an investment in the future of the country.”

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A16z is joined in the $42 million investment by technology executives and investors including Shopify CEO Tobi Lütke, DoorDash CEO Tony Xu, Quora co-founder Adam D’Angelo, Y Combinator CEO Garry Tan and Palantir Chief Technology Officer Shyam Sankar.

NEW YORK OVERTAKES SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AS LARGEST US TECH TALENT MARKET BY WORKFORCE SIZE

Ben Horowitz walks outside in Sun Valley, Idaho.

Co-founder of Andreessen Horowitz, Ben Horowitz walks to a morning session at the Allen & Company Sun Valley Conference on July 9, 2021 in Sun Valley, Idaho. (Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)

The venture has also lined up Google, Meta, Nvidia, OpenAI, Anthropic, Coinbase, Palantir, Stripe, Anduril and Replit as founding partners. The companies will provide resources and expertise, including software, hardware and computing power, according to the academy.

Ticker Security Last Change Change %
GOOGL ALPHABET INC. 343.92 +1.56 +0.46%
META META PLATFORMS INC. 723.05 -28.61 -3.81%
NVDA NVIDIA CORP. 231.55 +6.48 +2.88%

Each student is expected to receive more than $50,000 in computing credits and other technology resources, along with a $5,000 travel and exploration budget. Courses will cover areas including AI systems, sales, fundraising, finance and startup formation.

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Gagan Biyani, who co-founded online learning company Udemy and later founded Maven, is leading the academy as founder and CEO. Marc Andreessen and a16z general partner Erik Torenberg will join him on its board.

College students sit in a lecture hall as a student takes notes during class.

College students attend a lecture in a classroom. (iStock)

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The fellowship is designed primarily for high school graduates and can serve as a gap year or college deferral. The academy plans to seek regulatory approval for a two-year program that could begin in fall 2028, with tuition expected to be comparable to elite private universities.

The company is separate from Andreessen Horowitz despite its close ties to the venture capital firm.

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Bob Chapek on Disney Bob Iger power battle: Raised concerns weekly

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Bob Chapek on Disney Bob Iger power battle: Raised concerns weekly

Former Disney CEO Bob Chapek said Monday he voiced concerns about then-Executive Chairman Bob Iger to the company’s board “weekly” during his brief tenure as head of the House of Mouse.

Chapek has remained tight-lipped about his firing from the media giant nearly four years ago, but opened up about his experience in a new tell-all memoir, “Behind the Castle Walls: My Thirty Years at the Happiest Place on Earth,” and in an interview with CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

Once head of Disney’s theme park and experiences division, Chapek was tapped to take the helm of the company just weeks before the Covid pandemic shuttered movie theaters and amusement parks around the globe in 2020. As Chapek worked to navigate these challenges, Iger remained with the company to handle Disney’s content initiatives like Disney+.

However, Iger slowly began to reassert control, Chapek says. The ensuing power struggle was detailed in a CNBC report in 2023.

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“When I started hearing about lunches that he had and dinners that he had where he was absolutely trashing me, and I’d hear it two, three times in the same week, the same bullet points, the same talking points, I was like, ‘I’ve got a problem,’” Chapek told CNBC.

He noted that when he brought concerns to the Disney board about Iger, he was told, “‘He’ll be gone in two years. It’s OK. That’s Bob being Bob.’”

But almost three years after being named CEO, Chapek was ousted and replaced by Iger, who returned to the post until March 2026.

“It would have been great if, like other CEOs, he acted as a steward of my new role,” Chapek said. “It would have been one thing if he was neutral, but to be actually working against me, actively, I thought was just unbelievable.”

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