SRK Fund I, LP increased 26.80% during the first half of the year. In contrast, the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 returned 10.18% and 22.57%, respectively. Since inception, the Fund has appreciated 1551.26% compared to 222.91% for the S&P 500 and 118.90% for the Russell 2000.
SRK Fund I, LP Returns (%) as of June 30, 2026
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2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
SRK Fund I
26.80%
47.12%
-8.74%
17.15%
35.31%
46.71%
127.72%
77.99%
S&P 500 TR
10.18%
17.88%
25.02%
26.29%
-18.11%
28.71%
18.40%
31.48%
Russell 2000
22.57%
12.81%
11.54%
16.93%
-20.47%
14.78%
20.00%
25.52%
*Inception date of 05/01/18
In many respects, the first half of 2026 mirrored the environment of 2025, persistent macroeconomic noise, narrow market leadership, and heightened volatility. Geopolitical tensions, off and on Iran peace deals, and a partial unwinding of the AI momentum trade caused investor sentiment to fluctuate throughout the first half of the year. After an extended period in which market participants chased AI hardware bottlenecks and infrastructure buildouts, shifting sentiment triggered sharp pullbacks across many crowded positions.
Our performance during the period was achieved with zero exposure to companies tied to the AI buildout. That decision was not a refusal to evaluate the future; underwriting future earnings power is central to our investment process. The distinction is predictability, as I tend to only commit capital when a business model is proven, the economics are visible, and I believe I have a high probability of being right about what the business can generate over time. AI remains a nascent and rapidly evolving sector. At this stage, much of the easy money in the trade appears to have been made, with valuations already discounting explosive growth and earnings several years into the future. Predicting long-term customer adoption, competitive durability, and sustainable returns on invested capital now requires assumptions across a wide range of possible outcomes for which I do not believe I have an edge.
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Instead, I prefer to focus on opportunities with asymmetric return potential and cash-flow outcomes that management can materially influence. I am allocating capital to opportunities where market neglect, cyclical weakness, or operational transitions have temporarily obscured the normalized earnings power of high-quality core assets.
Today’s portfolio consists of businesses trading at meaningful discounts to my estimate of normalized cash flows. They are led by aligned operators focused on controllable improvements, including operational efficiency, stronger cash conversion, and disciplined per-share capital allocation. By emphasizing durable cash flows and execution within management’s control, I believe the portfolio can continue compounding without depending on macro tailwinds, multiple expansion, or favorable market sentiment.
ImmuCell delivered a strong first quarter in 2026, underscoring the earnings power and cash-flow potential of its core First Defense franchise after the company’s strategic exit from Re-Tain. Product sales increased 28.4% year-over-year to $10.4 million, driven by higher volumes, price realization, and an estimated three-point gain in U.S. scours biologicals market share. Gross margin expanded to 45.0% as increased production created operating leverage, while net income rose 34% to $1.9 million. Even after the stock’s recent appreciation, ImmuCell remains a compelling opportunity. Management is refitting the former Re-Tain facility to expand First Defense capacity beyond the current 450,000 units per month, supporting a path toward $35 million to $40 million of sales over the next 12 to 24 months. With gross margins near 45%, the Re-Tain development burden permanently removed, annual EBITDA can grow towards $12 million to $14 million and convert into free cash flow with limited corporate tax leakage for several years due to substantial net operating loss carryforwards.
Outdoor Holding Company’s fourth quarter and full-year fiscal 2026 results reinforced the core turnaround thesis. Since divesting its capital-intensive ammunition manufacturing business in April 2025, the company has operated as a pure-play, asset-light marketplace through GunBroker.com. Revenue increased 3.5% year-over-year to $51.1 million, while adjusted EBITDA rose 46% to $22.3 million from $15.3 million, reflecting disciplined cost control and improved platform monetization.
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Momentum accelerated in their fourth quarter. Net revenue grew 10.1% year-over-year to $13.9 million, supported by an 11.8% increase in gross merchandise value to approximately $229 million. Gross margin remained exceptionally high at 87.6%, and lower operating expenses helped drive adjusted EBITDA to $7.7 million, up 163% from $2.9 million in the prior-year period.
The results also highlighted GunBroker’s resilience in a subdued firearms market. Firearm unit sales on the platform grew 8.7% year-over-year during the quarter, far outpacing the 1.6% increase in adjusted NICS background checks. Adjusted EBITDA run rates over the past three quarters have also exceeded management’s $25 million target, reaching that milestone well ahead of the timetable set in August 2025. The balance sheet remains strong, with $68.1 million of cash and equivalents at fiscal year-end. They also began returning capital through a $15 million share repurchase program, buying back 513,925 shares for approximately $1.0 million at an average price of $1.95 per share.
Management is now focused on platform enhancements that can drive GMV growth and expand the take rate. During their fiscal year, the company completed its MasterFFL integration to streamline dealer verification across more than 32,000 licensed dealers and launched an AI-powered listing tool to improve product descriptions and conversion. In fiscal 2027, universal payment processing should allow individual sellers to accept credit cards through native checkout, addressing the roughly 30% of platform volume still handled through manual payment methods and creating a new high-margin revenue stream. With modest take-rate expansion, a potential cyclical recovery in firearms demand ahead of the 2028 election cycle, 85%+ gross margins, a net cash balance sheet, and aggressive buybacks, POWW has a credible path to $35 million to $40 million of EBITDA over the next 18 to 24 months and remains an attractive opportunity.
Industrial & Manufacturing Basket
Our industrial and manufacturing basket performed exceptionally well in the first half of the year, with the average holding up more than 50% year-to-date on a consolidated basis. While the market often views micro-cap industrial companies as commoditized or highly cyclical, our thesis centered on a clear inflection point. These businesses had spent two years working through severe post-pandemic inventory destocking, elevated input costs, and depressed utilization, while still retaining durable niche positions, strong balance sheets, and meaningful operating leverage.
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The group’s fundamental results have validated that setup. As customer inventories normalized and supply chain friction eased, even modest volume recovery began flowing through to earnings. Many management teams have already used the downturn to resize cost structures, consolidate facilities, and remove legacy overhead, allowing baseline volume recovery to drive sharp improvements in gross margins and operating cash flow.
One example is a specialized synthetic fiber and materials manufacturer we accumulated at a deep discount to tangible book value. The company had been pressured by an extended destocking cycle across the global textile and apparel supply chain, which caused revenue declines and severe margin compression. Rather than waiting for demand to recover, management executed a broad operational turnaround by closing redundant plants, shifting production to lower-cost regions, and emphasizing proprietary higher-margin products. As order volumes stabilized, the company’s operating leverage became evident. The business moved from operating losses to cash generation, gross margins recovered by several hundred basis points, and the stock re-rated accordingly.
Capital allocation across the basket has also remained disciplined. Supported by net-cash or low-leverage balance sheets, several management teams have used excess cash flow to repurchase deeply discounted shares, increasing per-share value. Despite the basket’s strong year-to-date advance, these businesses still trade at modest multiples of normalized earnings and free cash flow. As core-end market demand continues to recover, I believe the group remains early in a multi-year earnings recovery.
During the first half of the year, we fully exited our position in Sanuwave Health (SNWV). Sanuwave entered 2026 as a relatively small holding. We had originally purchased shares when the business was deeply discounted trading on the OTC market and realized most of our gains at substantially higher prices, selling the bulk of the position in the $20s and $30s. After reviewing the company’s first-quarter results, I decided to sell the remaining shares and move on.
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The exit was driven by reduced visibility into Sanuwave’s future growth. Much of the company’s recent revenue growth has come from mobile wound-care clinics using the UltraMist platform. However, the economics for those operators changed materially. Mobile clinics had previously generated very high margins from tissue-based skin grafts, while UltraMist, despite its clinical benefits, does not carry the same reimbursement profile.
As reimbursement pressure reduced margins, it became increasingly clear that many mobile wound-care operators were under significant financial strain. In my view, a meaningful portion of that customer base was and is likely to fail. Because Sanuwave’s forward growth depended heavily on a structurally challenged channel, the risk/reward profile had deteriorated. Sanuwave was ultimately a successful investment for the fund despite the recent stock price deterioration, but exiting the remaining position allows us to redeploy capital into opportunities where I have greater confidence in the predictability and durability of future cash flows.
Pro-Dex is a new holding added during the fourth quarter of last year. I have followed the company for many years and have long sought an opportunity to own shares at an attractive price. That opportunity emerged when the stock sold off on concerns that Pro-Dex’s largest customer contract would not be renewed at year-end 2025. The risk was resolved when the company secured a three-year extension through 2028, including minimum purchase commitments for 2026 and 2027. The renewal reinforces the durability of a relationship that has lasted more than fifteen years and provides a predictable, cash-generative base from which Pro-Dex can fund growth.
Pro-Dex is a specialized medical device manufacturer that designs, builds, and repairs powered surgical handpieces for large OEM customers under long-term, exclusive supply agreements. These relationships are difficult to displace because each product is tied to customer-specific regulatory clearances, designs, validated manufacturing processes, and intellectual property owned by Pro-Dex.
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The most attractive upside to the business comes from Pro-Dex’s role as the exclusive hardware and component partner for Zimmer Biomet’s mBôs robotic surgery platform. Pro-Dex manufactures the platform’s motorized end-effector components and receives a high margin sourced products fee on third-party disposable cutting tools used in each procedure, creating a recurring, procedure linked revenue stream. The company also owns 2.2 million contingent value rights tied to Zimmer Biomet’s acquisition of Monogram Technologies. These are carried at zero on the balance sheet but could pay more than $25 million, or roughly $6.80 per share, if future mBôs milestones are achieved. In addition, the February 2026 acquisition of Advanced Precision Machining brings a key supplier in-house, expands manufacturing capacity, and adds higher margin aerospace, defense, and government customers.
At today’s price, PDEX offers asymmetric upside. We are paying primarily for the stable core business while receiving the potential mBôs economics and off-balance-sheet CVR value for little to no credit. If commercialization scales over the next 24 to 36 months, Pro-Dex has a clear path to materially higher earnings power and a substantially higher share price.
Undisclosed Holding
During the second quarter we built a position in a specialized healthcare supply business that resonates with previous investments as an overlooked turnaround trading at a significant discount to underlying business value. The company produces essential recurring consumables used daily in life-sustaining medical treatments. Despite sticky demand, a net-cash balance sheet, and improving margins, the stock trades at a low single-digit multiple of normalized cash flow.
The stock continues to be weighed down by a legacy concern tied to the loss of its largest customer. That customer represented a substantial portion of volume, and its departure created a sharp revenue gap that caused a significant decline in the share price. Rather than permanently impairing the business, however, the setback forced a broad restructuring. Management cut legacy overhead, renegotiated contract economics, improved pricing, and rebuilt the commercial strategy.
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Today, the business is stronger and more resilient. The lost revenue has been absorbed, and the customer base is now diversified across dozens of regional providers and independent clinics, eliminating the prior customer concentration risk. Growth has also re-accelerated as the company entered a major new geographic territory, won several multi-year supply contracts, and gained share in markets where it previously had no presence. As these contracts ramp, the business will begin to benefit from operating leverage across its manufacturing and distribution footprint. Incremental volume will convert to profit at high operating margins and produce consistent positive cash flow. At a single-digit forward cash-flow multiple, the market is still valuing the company based on past challenges rather than current fundamentals. We are paying a distressed multiple for a stabilized, growing, and diversified business that should re-rate as it continues to deliver clean operational results along with the potential for one or several acquisitions to meaningfully accelerate operating leverage.
Closing Thoughts
Halfway through the year, the fund is off to a strong start, driven by solid operational execution across our core holdings. While these initial results are gratifying, I want to remind partners to temper their expectations and avoid extrapolating our first half performance forward on a permanent basis. Investment returns rarely compound in a straight line, and there will inevitably be quieter stretches or periods of noise along the way. That said, I remain deeply confident in how the portfolio is currently structured. I believe the fund is positioned to generate highly attractive returns on a go forward basis.
Right now, my pipeline of actionable ideas is abundant, I currently have more compelling opportunities than I have capital to allocate. If you know of accredited investors who share our disciplined, long-term approach to bottom-up investing, I would be deeply grateful for an introduction.
Thank you for your continued partnership, trust, and shared long-term perspective as I steward your capital alongside my own. I look forward to updating you on our progress again at year-end. Please do not hesitate to contact me with any questions regarding the matters discussed above.
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Sincerely,
Sean Kirkwood
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SRK Fund
S&P 500 TR
Russell 2000 TR
2018
2.90%
-4.03%
-11.72%
2019
77.99%
31.48%
25.52%
2020
127.72%
18.40%
20.00%
2021
46.71%
28.71%
14.78%
2022
35.31%
-18.11%
-20.47%
2023
17.15%
26.29%
16.93%
2024
-8.74%
25.02%
11.54%
2025
47.12%
17.88%
12.81%
YTD 2026
26.80%
10.18%
22.57%
Cumulative
1551.26%
222.91%
118.90%
Annualized
40.98%
15.44%
10.07%
The information contained herein is a reflection of the opinions of SRK Capital as of the date of publication and is subject to change without notice at any time subsequent to the date of issue. SRK Capital does not represent that any opinion or projection will be realized. All the information provided is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any specific security. While it is believed that the information presented herein is reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any data presented. This communication is confidential and may not be reproduced without SRK Capital’s prior written consent.
Indices are provided as market indicators only. It should not be assumed that holdings, volatility, or management style of SRK Fund I, LP, or is intended to, resemble that of the mentioned indices. Index returns supplied by various sources are believed to be accurate and reliable.
Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Inherent in any investment is the possibility of loss.
This performance reporting is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy an interest in SRK Fund I, LP. Such an offer may only be made after you receive the Confidential Offering Memorandum and have had the opportunity to review its contents. This reporting does not include certain information that should be considered relevant to an investment in SRK Fund I, LP including, but not limited to, significant risk factors and complex tax considerations. For more information, please refer to the appropriate Memorandum and read it carefully before you invest.
OpenAI has chosen to rename new versions of artificial intelligence tools widely known as agents. They are now being called “dots.”
Company boss Sam Altman, speaking in San Francisco on Tuesday during OpenAI’s yearly event for technology developers, referred to “dots” as “remarkably capable, always-on agents that can handle really anything you can think of.”
OpenAI in recent months has come under intense scrutiny as internal tests of its AI agents have revealed often unexpected and occasionally harmful actions, leading to more public and government fears.
Dots, however, were pitched as brightly colored cute cartoons meant to function as digital assistants for people with busy lives.
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The dots, Altman said, “can handle really anything you can think of.”
A glossy video was shown during the event, with people speaking to and naming animated versions of their “dots,” then giving them various tasks, like building a website and booking afterschool activities for their children.
Speaking about “my dot,” Altman almost entirely eschewed referring to the tool as an agent, which has been in common use for years. AI agents are essentially AI chatbots that are programmed to operate somewhat autonomously.
“You just give your dot a responsibility… and your dots will just get to work and keep working,” Altman added.
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The day prior to OpenAI’s Tuesday event, the company said it was delaying the launch of its latest model due to certain safety issues that showed up during internal testing.
Since July, the company has been dealing with a series of issues with its AI agents acting improperly. It has faced unprompted hacking into the AI platform Hugging Face, posting to third-party websites images that AI agents took from ChatGPT user chats, and accessing non-public information maintained by the Australian government.
OpenAI, as well as rival AI firm Anthropic, previously delayed public release of certain AI models due to potential risks, mostly pertaining to cybersecurity or hacking concerns.
Both companies also expect to be listed on the public stock market in the coming months. Anthropic likely will do so this year, while OpenAI is poised for 2027.
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And both companies have lately been clear that they believe AI poses a genuine risk on a large scale, be it to public infrastructure or public safety.
Speaking last week to the UN, Altman pleaded for “national and international” AI standards on measuring the capabilities of an AI tool, assessing related risks, AI safeguards, and the degree to which human oversight over such tools is maintained.
Dario Amodei, the head of Anthropic, told the UN that if the speeding development of AI was not properly managed and overseen, future versions of the technology “could be a risk to humanity as a whole.”
UK Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey has compared Nigel Farage’s fiscal policies to a “BTC account” handled by one of the UK’s most financially irresponsible prime ministers.
UK Chancellor of the Exchequer! “Don’t make me laugh,” John Healey has compared Nigel Farage’s fiscal policies to a “BTC account” handled by one of the UK’s most financially irresponsible prime ministers.
This is from Healey the most useless piece of communist crap ever appointed to this position. This man is really as stupid as they come. Support the British people? NO, he supports the communist socialist failed agenda and the EU, like the rest of Labour’s traitor MPs. Certainly not you the British people, and you voted for the new Communist socialist Islamic republic of Britain.
Now he and Burnham are going to piss all over you while calling for another referendum on rejoining the dictatorship called the EU, OH, AND THEY WILL USE THE WORD DEMOCRACY, SOMETHING THEY DON’T SUPPORT AND NEVER HAVE.
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Healey’s jab at the Reform leader during Labour’s 2026 party conference referred to the perceived economic failure of the UK’s shortest-serving prime minister, Liz Truss.
Truss’s financial policies were widely criticised for their negative impact on financial markets. This led to a rebellion from several Tory MPs, and she was forced to resign within 44 days of her premiership.
Healey appeared to suggest that a “BTC account” is an equally financially irresponsible form of finance, and that only by pairing it with Truss would you recreate the “fantasy funding” ideals of Nigel Farage.
Healey’s comments upset a lot of Bitcoiners, who claimed his “derogatory” description of a “BTC account” demonstrated “staggering ignorance.”
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Freddie New, CEO of the BTC Lightning transaction fee firm B HODL, said Healey is “gleefully ignorant that he thinks it is possible to have a ‘BTC account.’”
UK podcaster Peter McCormack said, “Healey making a dismissive joke about Bitcoin shows that he likely has a woeful understanding of economics, particularly scarcity.”
Most criticisms were technical and took offence at the use of the word “account,” which contrasts with the phrase “crypto wallet” used by crypto holders.
Healey wants a ‘new age of industrialisation’
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Healey was defence secretary under Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership before he resigned in June. He argued that the government wasn’t willing to spend enough on national defence.
During yesterday’s conference, Healey announced new measures to support a “new age of industrialisation,” which includes a £300 million investment from Rolls-Royce toward its factories, and £6 billion in government contracts to build new submarine docks.
A so-called “Union Learning Fund” was also announced, as were a National Wealth Fund to help create 130,000 jobs by 2030, and a £100 million-backed local apprenticeship scheme.
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El Pollo Loco will open its first New York City restaurant next year as the California chain looks to become a national player.
El Pollo Loco has closed three development agreements for a total of 15 restaurants in the New York area over the next five years, the company announced on Tuesday. The first location will open in Queens in mid-2027.
Founded in Mexico in 1975, El Pollo Loco opened its first U.S. restaurant in Los Angeles. The majority of its locations are still concentrated in California, but its footprint has grown to more than 500 restaurants across 10 states. It is best known for its bone-in grilled chicken, although its menu has grown.
CEO Liz Williams wants to make El Pollo Loco into a national chain. To expand outside its Southwestern stronghold, El Pollo Loco will open restaurants on the East Coast and then move its way back to the West, she said.
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To succeed in new markets, the chain will have to build its brand awareness in a crowded space where consumers are watching their budgets.
“Being a 50-year-old brand, people have seen it over the years and have always had that curiosity, but we have our work cut out,” Williams said.
Under Williams’ leadership, El Pollo Loco has embarked on a turnaround focused on modernizing its restaurants and expanding its menu into more convenient options, like wraps and chicken tenders. The efforts have started to pay off for the chain, which has reported three straight quarters of same-store sales growth.
“In the current quarter, we’ve expanded margins, and the business model is healthy overall,” Williams said. “The brand has gotten even stronger and healthier.”
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El Pollo Loco has also been expanding quickly during her tenure. When she began in March 2024, the chain was in just six states. Now, it is in 10. And while it opened nine restaurants last year, El Pollo Loco is projecting 10 to 18 new locations by the end of 2026.
Investors like the company’s trajectory. Shares of El Pollo Loco have climbed 44% over the last year. The S&P 500 rose more than 15% over the same period.
Its comeback coincides with a challenging time for the restaurant industry. Burger and taco chains have been facing soaring costs for beef. Consumers have been dining out less frequently to save money, which has intensified competition between eateries.
El Pollo Loco has also had to contend with more competition as restaurants aim to cash in on growth in the chicken category. McDonald’s and Taco Bell — Williams’ former employer — have expanded their chicken options in recent years, fueled by consumer market research. And chicken-focused chains have been expanding quickly, from newcomer Dave’s Hot Chicken to Southern names like Zaxby’s and Raising Cane’s.
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In 2024, El Pollo Loco was the eighth-largest chicken chain by U.S. sales, with 2.1% market share, according to Barclays.
But with its focus on grilled chicken and Mexican-inspired flavors, El Pollo Loco stands out from the crowd, Williams said.
“Everyone is talking about wanting to eat a little better and really thinking through their choices,” Williams said. “Everyone loves fried chicken … However, in terms of what you’re able to eat every single day, grilled chicken is just a better option.”
The expansion news comes as El Pollo Loco shakes up its leadership.
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The company on Friday said in a regulatory filing that Damon Thomas will join the company as chief operating officer. He joins the company from Shake Shack.
Tara Hinkle was also recently tapped as the chain’s new chief development officer. She previously held roles at The Coffee Bean & Tea Leaf, Taco Bell and Starbucks before joining the company in July.
Correction: This story was updated to reflect that Williams said the company’s brand has gotten stronger and healthier. A previous version misquoted her.
Severe flooding in Bangkok and surrounding provinces is projected to reduce Thailand’s 2026 economic growth by 0.3 percentage points, lowering estimates to 2.1%. Immediate losses are estimated at 11 billion baht nationwide, with some assessments ranging up to 33.8 billion baht, and Bangkok bearing the largest share of damage.
The capital experienced significant rainfall that overwhelmed drainage systems, disrupting transport, commerce, and supply chains, particularly affecting small businesses. The government declared special holidays to ease pressure, while banks introduced relief measures. The final economic impact depends on how quickly flooding subsides and whether further disruptions occur.
Thailand’s latest flooding could reduce annual economic growth by 0.3 percentage points this year, as widespread disruption across Bangkok and surrounding provinces weighs on businesses, transport and household spending.
The flooding could lower Thailand’s 2026 growth rate to 2.1%, from an earlier estimate of 2.4%, according to economist Aat Pisanwanich, who was quoted by Reuters in a recent article. Third-quarter growth could decline by approximately 0.5 percentage points to 1.7%.
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The immediate economic losses have been estimated at 11 billion baht, or approximately $320 million, nationwide. A separate assessment by Rangsit University placed the potential losses between 16.9 billion and 33.8 billion baht, with a moderate-damage scenario reaching 25.345 billion baht.
Bangkok is expected to bear the largest share of the losses, at approximately 10.586 billion baht. The estimate covers the period from September 24 to 27 and includes disruptions to commerce, services and travel.
Bangkok bears the largest impact
The capital received around 320 millimetres of rain over two to three days, overwhelming drainage systems and flooding entire neighbourhoods. Water levels began to recede in several areas after the rain eased, but residents in some communities remained stranded or dependent on evacuation centres, as was reported by varoius medias like Internazionale.
The economic impact has extended beyond direct damage to buildings and vehicles. Businesses have faced difficulties moving workers, receiving supplies and delivering products, while shops in flooded areas have struggled to reopen.
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Transport interruptions have also reduced consumer activity. Residents unable to travel to work or commercial districts have postponed purchases, while companies have incurred additional costs for alternative routes, temporary closures and emergency repairs.
The government declared special holidays for civil servants in Bangkok and three surrounding provinces on September 28 and 29 in an attempt to reduce travel and ease pressure on the transport system. However, the measure also reflects the scale of the disruption facing the Bangkok metropolitan area.reuters
The Stock Exchange of Thailand will continue operating during the special holidays, maintaining trading on the SET, mai, TFEX, LiVEx and related platforms. The decision is intended to preserve financial-market continuity even as parts of the capital remain affected by flooding.nationthailand
Pressure on supply chains
In the other hand, the Federation of Thai Industries has warned companies to protect workers, review transport routes and prepare for further disruption. Water levels in reservoirs and canals remain a concern even after rainfall has eased in parts of the country.
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The risk is particularly significant for businesses that depend on just-in-time deliveries. Delays affecting warehouses, roads, ports or industrial facilities can spread quickly through supply chains, even when the original flooding is concentrated in a limited number of districts.
Banks have begun offering relief measures to affected households and companies. Krungthai Bank and Export-Import Bank of Thailand are providing repayment assistance, lower interest rates and additional liquidity to customers facing losses or cash-flow problems.
Those measures could prevent temporary disruption from becoming a wider credit problem. However, debt relief cannot replace lost inventory, damaged equipment or the income businesses lose during forced closures.
The flooding has also exposed differences in economic vulnerability. Large companies may have insurance, backup facilities and alternative suppliers. Small businesses and informal operators often have fewer reserves and are more likely to face a permanent loss of income after several days without sales.
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Growth outlook becomes more fragile
The estimated 0.3 percentage-point reduction in annual growth would not by itself push Thailand into recession. But it adds another obstacle to an economy already dealing with moderate expansion, high household debt, external uncertainty and persistent energy costs.
The final impact will depend on how quickly water levels fall and whether additional rainfall causes a second wave of disruption. A rapid recovery could limit the damage, while prolonged flooding could increase losses through reduced production, weaker consumption and delayed investment.
For now, Thailand’s economic response is focused on drainage, emergency assistance and financial relief. The next stage will be more difficult: restoring businesses, repairing infrastructure and determining whether the country’s cities and supply chains are prepared for increasingly frequent climate shocks.
The final economic cost remains uncertain. The Federation of Thai Industries has warned that disruption can spread through supply chains, affecting raw-material deliveries, worker mobility, warehouses and machinery. At the same time, economists have stressed that a rapid recovery in affected areas would limit the damage, meaning the duration of the flooding is now more important than the initial rainfall event.
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The floodwaters may recede within days. The economic consequences will last longer, particularly for smaller businesses that cannot afford another interruption before the recovery from this one is complete.
The episode also exposes a longer-term investment issue. Bangkok’s vulnerability to extreme rainfall creates recurring costs for retailers, manufacturers, logistics operators and property owners. Beyond emergency relief, businesses and policymakers face increasing pressure to invest in drainage capacity, flood barriers, water-management systems and continuity planning.
After two difficult years for Indian equities, there is scope for reasonable returns as valuations turn less demanding, according to senior market participants who spoke to ET. Large caps look better placed, while the outlook is more cautious on mid- and small-caps. Financials, manufacturing and consumption are among the preferred themes, while views on technology are sharply divided
NEELESH SURANA, CIO, Mirae Asset Mutual Fund
MARKET OUTLOOK: India looks better positioned than sentiment suggests and is a natural hedge against crowded AI trade. Valuations are no longer a headwind, while domestic fundamentals are sound. Any global trade rotation could be meaningful. Key risks are elevated crude, rising developed market bond yields, El Niño and heavy equity issuance. Overall, we expect low-teens returns. PREFERRED INVESTMENT STRATEGY: Our strategy is a barbell, combining quality stocks with strong earnings upgrades at sensible valuations with holding sector leaders that have corrected over the past two years and are now in value zone.
THEMES LOOKING ATTRACTIVE: Banking, consumer discretionary, healthcare and manufacturing. Sector leaders, impacted by FPI selling over the last two years, are now attractive.
THEMES TO STAY AWAY FROM: Slow-growth or disruption prone sectors like consumer staples and IT. Cautious on narrative-driven, richly-valued sectors like capital goods.
JANAKIRAMAN RENGARAJU, CIO – India Equities Templeton Global Investments
MARKET OUTLOOK: The 12-month base case for Indian equities may not be quite euphoric, but it is constructive. Largecap valuations are more reasonable, while higher mid- and small-cap multiples call for greater prudence. Globally, the picture has deteriorated. Unresolved conflicts have entrenched inflationary pressures, while rising interest rates and heavy fiscal debt reinforce each other. Tariff uncertainty continues to cloud trade growth, while questions are emerging over the viability of massive AI investments, even as enthusiasm and valuations remain elevated.PREFERRED INVESTMENT STRATEGY: Adopt a tone of ‘cautious optimism’ over the medium term.
THEMES LOOKING ATTRACTIVE: Financials, industrials and capital goods, consumption and electronic manufacturing, which are linked to capex pick up, rising affluence and credit growth.
THEMES TO STAY AWAY FROM: Avoid expensive small and mid-caps with weak cash generation and businesses dependent on endless equity funding.
MARKET OUTLOOK: Economy remains in good shape, while valuations are now neutral. This should translate into reasonable market returns broadly in line with earnings growth.
PREFERRED INVESTMENT STRATEGY: Don’t chase narratives that have already played out, rather look at sectors that have been underperforming since the last 2-3 years.
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THEMES LOOKING ATTRACTIVE: Private banks, insurance companies, automobiles and cement.
THEMES TO STAY AWAY FROM: Careful about companies where promoters are diluting (either through primary or secondary sales) or where private equity is selling, including IPOs. Promoter dilution and PE sales happen when performance and valuations are close to peaks. Cautious on metals, IT and FMCG. For IT, the problem is not AI but the fact that Indian listed companies are losing market share to GCCs set up in India.
R SIVAKUMAR CIO, Axis Mutual Fund
MARKET OUTLOOK: The outlook is constructive. Economic slowdown over the last few quarters appears to be more cyclical than structural. Valuations in parts of the market remain elevated, particularly within mid- and small-caps.
PREFERRED INVESTMENT STRATEGY: Alpha generation is likely to come from selective stock picking rather than broad market direction. A balanced approach across largecaps, which offer valuation comfort and resilience, and select mid-cap opportunities, which continue to deliver superior earnings growth, remains appropriate.
THEMES LOOKING ATTRACTIVE: Constructive on manufacturing, power and electrification, energy transition, select financials, particularly banks and capital-market-linked businesses, as well as export-oriented companies.
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THEMES TO STAY AWAY FROM: Investors should avoid chasing momentum in overcrowded themes. In technology, we remain watchful of disruptions and pricing pressures emerging from AI-led changes in the global IT services landscape
SHANKAR SHARMA, Founder, GQuant
MARKET OUTLOOK: Barring occasional rallies, I do not see the Indian markets outperforming the world or even the peer group. The Vaibhav Suryavanshi Syndrome afflicts Indian companies: domestic success is mistaken for globally transferable skill. Largecaps have thrived on India’s easy pitch, building market capitalisation rather than global scale and brands. When domestic growth fades, competing overseas will require an entirely different mindset. There will be pockets where money is going to be made; but in aggregate, Indian returns will disappoint for the coming year.
PREFERRED INVESTMENT STRATEGY: The future of the Indian stock market lies in getting “techified”. Tech has been my theme in the last 2 years since the bear market started in India and I have actually made money even in this very-very tough market. This is not going to change anytime soon. Pharmaceuticals is also going to be a good place to be in.
THEMES LOOKING ATTRACTIVE: For me, tech is 80% of the allocation and pharma is 20% and there is nothing else that I am interested in India.
THEMES TO STAY AWAY FROM: Companies which service the domestic Indian consumer. That trade is on its way out and this is not where I would deploy a lot of capital.
The firm has relocated to the South Gate House office scheme
18:41, 28 Sep 2026Updated 18:48, 28 Sep 2026
The Cardiff team of Hazlewoods
Accountancy and business advisory firm Hazlewoods has relocated to larger offices in Cardiff to support expansion plans.
Having set up its first office in Wales at the Capital Tower office building in 2024, it has now moved its team of 34 to South Gate House.
Tom Davies, director at Hazlewoods Cardiff, said: “This is an exciting step for Hazlewoods and reflects the progress we have made since launching in the city less than two years ago. We have built a very strong team here and have been really encouraged by the response from both new and existing clients, reflecting our commitment to developing deep relationships across the region.
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“The new office gives us the space to continue growing while maintaining the collaborative approach that is such an important part of the way we work.”
Bruce Black, corporate tax director, said: “This move creates the environment we need to continue finding and developing local talent to build the team, while maintaining the high level of service our clients expect from Hazlewoods. It reflects just how positively the Cardiff office has developed in such a short space of time.
“The team in Cardiff has done a great job of growing the business and I look forward to seeing that continue. We have the expertise, ambition and people to build a really strong presence in Wales, and the new office gives the team a great base from which to do that.”
Hazlewoods is one of the largest independent accountants and business advisers in the South West and Wales, with more than 600 employees and a growing presence in Cardiff, alongside its offices in Cheltenham and Bristol.
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The firm provides audit, accounting, tax and advisory services to corporate and private clients and is particularly well known for its specialist sector expertise across the UK. Last year, the firm recorded a turnover of £54.3m.
Its managing partner, James Morter, said: “It has been very gratifying to see the way that Hazlewoods has been welcomed into Cardiff. Early on, we identified a gap in the Welsh market for a firm of our size and experience, and when you combine that with the talent pool in the city, it felt like a natural next step.”
Property advisory firm Knight Frank represented Hazlewoods on the deal, while its building consultancy team supported the fit-out of the new space.
Mark Sutton, office agency partner at Knight Frank’s Cardiff office, said: “Hazlewoods was looking for a space that could support its continued growth in Wales, while offering excellent connectivity and the flexibility to create a workplace suited to its needs.
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“South Gate House provided the right combination of quality space and a prime city-centre location, and it has been a pleasure to support the team through the move.”
For the US economy, a ban could deliver short-term relief at the pump by flooding the domestic market with excess supply.
However, energy analysts warn it could backfire.
David Fyfe, chief economist at Argus Media, notes that cutting off American supply would likely cause international prices to skyrocket.
That would push up global freight, food, and industrial costs, ultimately “feeding inflation back into the global economy”.
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“At a stroke, the US’s reputation as a reliable supplier of energy to the world would be shot,” Fyfe added.
Removing more than a million barrels of daily American supply would trigger a fierce bidding war among importing nations in Latin America and Europe.
Sarah Raffoul, analytics manager at Argus Media, noted that while higher international prices would eventually curb demand, the immediate gap would severely strain trade relationships and accelerate global inflation.
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