$100 crude & 95 rupee: Why Arvind Kothari is still buying these 5 emerging themes despite the war

Edited excerpts from a chat:

How have you been tweaking your portfolio during the war? Did you load up on existing portfolio stocks during the fall or picked fresh ideas that looked even more promising?

At Niveshaay, we believe periods of geopolitical stress naturally necessitate revisiting our core ideas. The recent market correction, driven majorly by escalating tensions and the Iran conflict, caused a lot of fundamentally strong companies to become highly attractive in terms of valuation. We used this volatility to our advantage. Based on long-term growth prospects and analyzing which sectors stand to benefit the most in the new macroeconomic environment, we made strategic changes. We consolidated further on our high-conviction existing positions and simultaneously initiated new positions in emerging themes such as electrification, energy security, and data centers.

Given that the war is now more than 2 month-old, what is your estimate as to how much of the earnings hit are we about to take in FY27 as a result of soaring crude oil, rupee depreciation and geopolitical uncertainty impacting orders? Which sectors do you think will feel most of the pinch?

Quantifying the exact earnings hit is difficult at this juncture, but it is fair to say that the first half of FY27 will not be entirely smooth. Sectors that rely heavily on crude oil derivatives as raw materials, particularly chemicals, will take a major hit as their margins get squeezed by soaring input costs. We might also see similar margin pressures in paints and select FMCG segments. However, our philosophy is to stick to robust businesses and treat these macro shocks as one-off events. As long as the structural growth story of a company hasn’t changed, we expect earnings to catch up in the latter half of the financial year once the initial shock is absorbed.

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If crude sustains closer to $100, what are the most material second-order effects investors should brace for across rupee, margins and demand?

Investors need to brace for widespread ripple effects. Sustained crude above $100 directly fuels overall inflation and exacerbates currency risks- it hits rural two-wheeler demand, tightens government fiscal math, and slows private capex ordering at the margin. A depreciating rupee severely impacts our import bills and eventually compresses corporate margins across multiple industries. However, every challenge creates a parallel opportunity. Sustained $100 crude fundamentally alters the cost-benefit analysis of traditional energy, making alternative technologies highly attractive. Sectors that had previously cooled down have suddenly hit the roof in terms of demand and relevance. The transition to alternative energy is accelerating, which is why we are seeing massive traction in renewables, electric vehicles (EVs), and crucial ancillary segments like power infrastructure. Additionally, as energy costs rise, businesses are prioritizing extreme energy efficiency, driving massive investments into upgraded infrastructure like advanced data center cooling systems. The key is to pivot toward these sectors where structural growth is being accelerated, rather than hindered, by high energy prices.

After the crash in March, the market recovered sharply in April. Is the rally surprising given that crude oil is still around the $90-100 mark and rupee around 94-95 against the dollar?

The sheer speed of the rally is somewhat surprising given the stark macroeconomic realities of $90-100 crude and the rupee hovering around 94-95. However, after enduring a painful 1.5-year bear market, we will happily take this recovery, regardless of how it has materialized. Obviously, the situation on the ground isn’t as rosy as the recent market action suggests. But markets are forward-looking, and domestic liquidity remains resilient. We will navigate this volatility by figuring our way out through a strict adherence to our investment framework.

How attractive do you think valuations are looking at at this stage across Nifty and the broader market?

Valuation attractiveness right now is highly sector-specific. There are certain high-pedigree sectors that we will never find “cheap” in traditional terms. Conversely, there are sectors that look optically cheap and attractive, but they lack catalysts and might not yield great outcomes—essentially value traps. Ultimately, it all comes down to earnings growth. Despite the broader market noise, we are witnessing robust and highly decent growth trajectories across the specific sectors and companies we actively track.

Tell us about sectoral themes that you are most bullish on for the long-term.

We are positioning our portfolio to capitalize on structural macro shifts. Our most bullish long term themes include:

• Electrification: With crude above $100 and energy supply chain dependencies exposed, there is a massive push for electrification, driving long-term demand across power and infrastructure companies.

• Energy Security: Nations are aggressively prioritizing self-reliance in energy generation.

• Data Centers: Expanding rapidly due to the massive digitization and AI boom.

• Electronics Manufacturing Services (EMS): Benefiting heavily from the global supply chain realignments.

• Aerospace & Defence: Driven by government spending and indigenization.

Aerospace and defence stocks have given handsome returns in April. Are valuations looking stretched in the near term? Given the huge long-term growth runway in aerospace due to the value migration we are seeing, which parameters do you look at while picking stocks?

The narrative around defense and aerospace is exceptionally strong right now, and despite the recent run-up, the absolute market capitalization of this sector remains relatively small. Indigenous manufacturing and self-sufficiency are the absolute need of the hour. Within this space, precision engineering is emerging as a highly lucrative sub-sector. While near-term valuations are always subjective and may appear stretched to some, our focus is on the deep moats these companies have established. We look at the specialized capabilities, rigorous certifications, and R&D these firms have built over the last 5 to 10 years, which are incredibly difficult for new entrants to replicate. If the anticipated order book growth materializes, these valuations are entirely justified and will leave us with excellent outcomes.