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$100 crude & 95 rupee: Why Arvind Kothari is still buying these 5 emerging themes despite the war

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$100 crude & 95 rupee: Why Arvind Kothari is still buying these 5 emerging themes despite the war
Despite a grueling macro environment of $100 crude and rupee near the 95 mark against the US dollar, the market’s sharp recovery in the last few weeks has signaled a shift in sentiment. Smallcase manager Arvind Kothari, Founder of Niveshaay, explains why he’s looking past short-term volatility to double down on high-conviction themes. From electrification to defence, discover the structural moats protecting these “war-proof” investment ideas.

Edited excerpts from a chat:

How have you been tweaking your portfolio during the war? Did you load up on existing portfolio stocks during the fall or picked fresh ideas that looked even more promising?

At Niveshaay, we believe periods of geopolitical stress naturally necessitate revisiting our core ideas. The recent market correction, driven majorly by escalating tensions and the Iran conflict, caused a lot of fundamentally strong companies to become highly attractive in terms of valuation. We used this volatility to our advantage. Based on long-term growth prospects and analyzing which sectors stand to benefit the most in the new macroeconomic environment, we made strategic changes. We consolidated further on our high-conviction existing positions and simultaneously initiated new positions in emerging themes such as electrification, energy security, and data centers.

Given that the war is now more than 2 month-old, what is your estimate as to how much of the earnings hit are we about to take in FY27 as a result of soaring crude oil, rupee depreciation and geopolitical uncertainty impacting orders? Which sectors do you think will feel most of the pinch?

Quantifying the exact earnings hit is difficult at this juncture, but it is fair to say that the first half of FY27 will not be entirely smooth. Sectors that rely heavily on crude oil derivatives as raw materials, particularly chemicals, will take a major hit as their margins get squeezed by soaring input costs. We might also see similar margin pressures in paints and select FMCG segments. However, our philosophy is to stick to robust businesses and treat these macro shocks as one-off events. As long as the structural growth story of a company hasn’t changed, we expect earnings to catch up in the latter half of the financial year once the initial shock is absorbed.

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If crude sustains closer to $100, what are the most material second-order effects investors should brace for across rupee, margins and demand?

Investors need to brace for widespread ripple effects. Sustained crude above $100 directly fuels overall inflation and exacerbates currency risks- it hits rural two-wheeler demand, tightens government fiscal math, and slows private capex ordering at the margin. A depreciating rupee severely impacts our import bills and eventually compresses corporate margins across multiple industries. However, every challenge creates a parallel opportunity. Sustained $100 crude fundamentally alters the cost-benefit analysis of traditional energy, making alternative technologies highly attractive. Sectors that had previously cooled down have suddenly hit the roof in terms of demand and relevance. The transition to alternative energy is accelerating, which is why we are seeing massive traction in renewables, electric vehicles (EVs), and crucial ancillary segments like power infrastructure. Additionally, as energy costs rise, businesses are prioritizing extreme energy efficiency, driving massive investments into upgraded infrastructure like advanced data center cooling systems. The key is to pivot toward these sectors where structural growth is being accelerated, rather than hindered, by high energy prices.

After the crash in March, the market recovered sharply in April. Is the rally surprising given that crude oil is still around the $90-100 mark and rupee around 94-95 against the dollar?

The sheer speed of the rally is somewhat surprising given the stark macroeconomic realities of $90-100 crude and the rupee hovering around 94-95. However, after enduring a painful 1.5-year bear market, we will happily take this recovery, regardless of how it has materialized. Obviously, the situation on the ground isn’t as rosy as the recent market action suggests. But markets are forward-looking, and domestic liquidity remains resilient. We will navigate this volatility by figuring our way out through a strict adherence to our investment framework.

How attractive do you think valuations are looking at at this stage across Nifty and the broader market?

Valuation attractiveness right now is highly sector-specific. There are certain high-pedigree sectors that we will never find “cheap” in traditional terms. Conversely, there are sectors that look optically cheap and attractive, but they lack catalysts and might not yield great outcomes—essentially value traps. Ultimately, it all comes down to earnings growth. Despite the broader market noise, we are witnessing robust and highly decent growth trajectories across the specific sectors and companies we actively track.

Tell us about sectoral themes that you are most bullish on for the long-term.

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We are positioning our portfolio to capitalize on structural macro shifts. Our most bullish long term themes include:

• Electrification: With crude above $100 and energy supply chain dependencies exposed, there is a massive push for electrification, driving long-term demand across power and infrastructure companies.

• Energy Security: Nations are aggressively prioritizing self-reliance in energy generation.

• Data Centers: Expanding rapidly due to the massive digitization and AI boom.

Electronics Manufacturing Services (EMS): Benefiting heavily from the global supply chain realignments.

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• Aerospace & Defence: Driven by government spending and indigenization.

Aerospace and defence stocks have given handsome returns in April. Are valuations looking stretched in the near term? Given the huge long-term growth runway in aerospace due to the value migration we are seeing, which parameters do you look at while picking stocks?

The narrative around defense and aerospace is exceptionally strong right now, and despite the recent run-up, the absolute market capitalization of this sector remains relatively small. Indigenous manufacturing and self-sufficiency are the absolute need of the hour. Within this space, precision engineering is emerging as a highly lucrative sub-sector. While near-term valuations are always subjective and may appear stretched to some, our focus is on the deep moats these companies have established. We look at the specialized capabilities, rigorous certifications, and R&D these firms have built over the last 5 to 10 years, which are incredibly difficult for new entrants to replicate. If the anticipated order book growth materializes, these valuations are entirely justified and will leave us with excellent outcomes.

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BDC Weekly Review: Private BDC Redemptions Supporting Public Funds

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Whale's Insight: A Macro-Driven Market With No Safe Haven, And No End To Volatility

This article was written by

ADS Analytics is a team of analysts with experience in research and trading departments at several industry-leading global investment banks. They focus on generating income ideas from a range of security types including: CEFs, ETFs and mutual funds, BDCs as well as individual preferred stocks and baby bonds.ADS Analytics runs the investing group Systematic Income which features 3 different portfolios for a range of yield targets as well interactive tools for investors, daily updates and a vibrant community.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Sandisk: A Better Business, But A Harder Stock To Chase (Rating Downgrade) (NASDAQ:SNDK)

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MSCI Stock: AI Is Changing The Model, Not Breaking The Business (NYSE:MSCI)

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I’m an ACC-qualified finance professional with a Master’s in Audit & Accounting from Istanbul University and certificates in Data Analytics from Coursera. For over two years, I’ve worked as a Data Scientist and Financial Analyst at a leading property management firm in Istanbul, where I developed budgets, set targets, and applied data-driven insights to maximize profitability. My expertise spans financial modeling, market analysis, and investment research, including hands-on experience in stocks and cryptocurrency. Through concise, conversational writing, I now share these insights to help readers make smarter financial and investment decisions.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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LPKF Laser & Electronics: A Cautious Buy On The Glass Substrate Opportunity

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LPKF Laser & Electronics: A Cautious Buy On The Glass Substrate Opportunity

LPKF Laser & Electronics: A Cautious Buy On The Glass Substrate Opportunity

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Sprout Social, Inc. (SPT) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

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OneWater Marine Inc. (ONEW) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Operator

Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to Sprout Social First Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions]

I will now hand the conference over to Lexi Johnson, Investor Relations. Lexi, please go ahead.

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Alexis Johnson

Thank you, and welcome to Sprout Social’s First Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. We will be discussing the results announced in our press release issued after market close today and have also released an updated investor presentation, which can be found on our website. With me are Sprout Social’s CEO, Ryan Barretto; and Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Development, Alex Kurtz.

Today’s call will contain forward-looking statements, which are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. All statements other than statements of historical facts are forward-looking. These include, among others, statements concerning our expected future financial performance, including our Q2 and 2026 outlook and business plans and objectives and can be identified by words such as expect, anticipate, intend, plan, believe, seek, opportunity, target or will.

These statements reflect our views as of

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Earnings call transcript: Cera Sanitaryware’s Q4 2026 shows recovery

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Improving Operations with Video Tech

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Improving Operations with Video Tech

Businesses often see cameras as simple tools for catching bad actors. Modern tech turns lenses into powerful eyes for your daily business flow. It is a shift from simple security to deep operational insight.

The change transforms a reactive cost into a proactive investment. Better data helps teams make smarter choices every single day. Clearer pictures of what happens on site lead to better results for everyone.

Shifting Perspectives On Modern Security

Old security setups mostly sat idle until something went wrong. Managers spent hours scrolling through grainy footage after a theft had happened. The manual work costs companies time and money that they could never get back.

Today, smart systems work constantly to provide real-time updates. Modern tools like video management software help leaders keep a pulse on their entire site. High-resolution feeds make it easy to see small details from anywhere.

The move toward active monitoring changes how companies think about their hardware. Cameras are no longer just static guards on the wall. They are now data collection points that feed into a larger business strategy.

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Lowering Long-Term Maintenance Costs

Managing hardware across a large campus is often a logistical nightmare. Technicians spend too much time traveling between sites for simple repairs. Travel costs add up quickly over a few months.

A report on campus safety found that moving to cloud platforms cut maintenance costs by 20%. Systems allow for remote updates and health checks without sending a truck. Most glitches get fixed with a few clicks from a central office.

Reducing the need for physical visits keeps the system running longer. It frees up staff to focus on more complex technical needs. It is a more efficient way to handle a large network of devices.

Boosting Retail Sales Through Layout Data

Floor space is expensive for any store owner. Knowing how customers move through aisles is the key to better profits. Small changes in shelf placement can have a huge impact on the bottom line.

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A popular retail news outlet shared that using video data to fix floor layouts leads to a 10% to 12% jump in sales per square foot. It happens when hot spots are identified and filled with high-value items, and it helps owners put the right products on the right path.

Managers can spot where people linger or where they get stuck. Fixing small friction points makes shopping much smoother for everyone. It turns a frustrating visit into a quick and easy trip.

Speeding Up Loss Prevention Efforts

Theft remains a major drain on revenue in the retail world. Catching issues early saves thousands of dollars over a year. Standard security often misses the subtle signs of internal problems.

One loss prevention publication noted that linking cameras with sales data helps find theft patterns 3 times faster than manual checks. Automated alerts flag suspicious register activity the moment it happens. It allows for a fast response before the damage grows.

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Speed lets teams stop losses before they snowball into bigger problems. It takes the guesswork out of auditing hundreds of transactions. Staff can focus on real issues instead of chasing ghosts.

Streamlining Warehouse Workflow Efficiency

Logistics hubs rely on speed and accuracy to stay competitive. Even small delays in packing can ruin a delivery schedule. Video tech helps managers see where the bottlenecks are hiding.

Placing cameras at key hand-off points reveals where boxes pile up. Supervisors use this info to move staff to busier areas immediately. This keeps the flow of goods moving without interruption.

  • Monitor loading dock wait times.
  • Track forklift paths to avoid traffic.
  • Verify package counts at sorting stations.

Data from these views helps plan the day better. It removes the need for managers to walk the floor constantly. They can see everything from a single tablet or phone.

Enhancing Employee Safety And Training

Workplace accidents lead to high insurance costs and lost time. Seeing how teams interact with machinery helps prevent future injuries. It provides a clear record of what went right and what went wrong.

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Video clips serve as perfect teaching tools for new hires. Showing a real example of a safety violation is more effective than a handbook. It makes the risks feel real to everyone in the room.

Teams feel more supported when they see management cares about their physical well-being. Safe environments lead to higher morale across the board. Productivity rises when people feel secure in their roles.

Improving Customer Service Interactions

Long lines at the checkout are the fastest way to lose a sale. Sensors in cameras alert a manager when a 3rd person joins a queue. Tech helps the shop stay ahead of the rush, keeping wait times low for every visitor.

Managers use live feeds to open new registers before lines get long. Systems identify times when more floor staff are needed at certain spots. Reviewing past interactions helps improve staff training for future shifts without any guessing.

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  • Open new registers before lines get long.
  • Identify times when more floor staff are needed.
  • Review interactions to improve staff training.

Seeing these trends live helps a business stay agile and ready for anything. Customers appreciate the quick service and are more likely to return for more visits. It builds a reputation for being a fast and friendly place to shop.

Integrating Data For Better Decisions

Combining video with other business tools creates a full picture of health. It is about more than just looking at a screen and connecting the dots between different parts of the company.

Modern software blends heat maps and traffic counts into one dashboard. Decision makers use the reports to plan future staffing and inventory. It makes the planning process much more accurate for the long term.

Smart tech removes the bias of human observation. Data provides a clear look at what is actually happening on the ground, which leads to confident choices that drive the company forward.

Visibility is the secret to refining every part of a business. Investing in the right tech pays for itself through better habits. It is a way to see the path to success much more clearly.

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Companies that embrace smart tools stay ahead of the curve. Clear sight leads to a much stronger bottom line. Every lens is a chance to make the workday better for everyone.

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Array Technologies, Inc. (ARRY) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

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OneWater Marine Inc. (ONEW) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Q1: 2026-05-06 Earnings Summary

EPS of $0.06 beats by $0.11

 | Revenue of $223.41M (-26.11% Y/Y) beats by $21.75M

Array Technologies, Inc. (ARRY) Q1 2026 Earnings Call May 6, 2026 5:00 PM EDT

Company Participants

Sarah Sheppard – Head of Investor Relations
Kevin Hostetler – CEO & Director
Neil Manning – COO & President
Keith Jennings – Chief Financial Officer

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Conference Call Participants

Julien Dumoulin-Smith – Jefferies LLC, Research Division
Philip Shen – ROTH Capital Partners, LLC, Research Division
Joseph Osha – Guggenheim Securities, LLC, Research Division
Ben Kallo – Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated, Research Division
Tylor Bison
Corinne Blanchard – Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division
David Benjamin – Mizuho Securities USA LLC, Research Division
Colin Rusch – Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., Research Division
Christopher Dendrinos – RBC Capital Markets, Research Division

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Presentation

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to Array Technologies First Quarter and FY 2026 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions]. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

It is now my pleasure to introduce Sarah Sheppard, Array’s Head of Investor Relations. Thank you, and you may proceed, Sarah.

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Sarah Sheppard
Head of Investor Relations

Thank you. I would like to welcome everyone to Array Technologies First Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. I’m joined on this call by Kevin Hostetler, our CEO; Keith Jennings, our CFO; and Neil Manning, our President and COO.

Today’s call is being webcast via our Investor Relations site at ir.arraytechinc.com, where the related presentation and press release are also available. In addition, the press release and the presentation detailing our quarterly results have been posted on the website. Today’s discussion of financial results includes non-GAAP measures. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures can be found in the related presentation and on our website. We encourage you to visit our website at arraytechinc.com for the most current information on our company.

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As a reminder, the matters we are discussing today include forward-looking statements regarding market demand and supply, our expected results and other

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Frontier Airlines plane suffers engine fire, reportedly hits pedestrian in Denver

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Frontier Airlines plane suffers engine fire, reportedly hits pedestrian in Denver

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The UK is set for a staycation summer – and there are plenty of hidden gems

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The UK is set for a staycation summer - and there are plenty of hidden gems

Seasoned staycationers share their favourite spots as Airbnb and Booking.com say interest in UK stays are up on last year.

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DHC Q1 2026 slides: SHOP margins expand despite revenue miss

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DHC Q1 2026 slides: SHOP margins expand despite revenue miss


DHC Q1 2026 slides: SHOP margins expand despite revenue miss

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