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A $100 Billion Liquidity Drain May Hit Markets This Week

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A $100 Billion Liquidity Drain May Hit Markets This Week

This article was written by

Michael Kramer is the founder of Mott Capital, and is a long-only investor who focuses on macro themes and studies trends and options activities to identify and assess entry and exit points for investments in his long-term focused thematic growth strategy. He is a former buy-side trader, analyst, and portfolio manager with 30 years of experience tracking market technicals, fundamentals, and options.Michael Kramer leads the investing group Reading the Markets, where he helps a devoted following of members to better understand what is driving trading and where the market is likely heading, both the short and long-term. Features of the investing group include: daily written commentary and videos analyzing the driving factors behind price action; general macro trend education to help members make well-informed decisions based on market conditions, interest rates, currency movements and how they all interact; chat for questions and community dialogue; and regular Zoom videos sessions to discuss current ideas and answer questions. The level of access RTM subscribers and the expertise of the source are unprecedented given that the subscription price is a fraction of similar technical coaching and mentoring services. Learn more.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment advisor to determine the suitability of any investment.

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Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Why Great Leaders Treat People Like Projects

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Why Great Leaders Treat People Like Projects

No project is ever simple. They start with neat timelines and confident nods, then slowly unravel somewhere between the kickoff meeting and delivery. Deadlines slip, priorities blur, and suddenly everyone’s busy, but no one is quite sure what they’re building anymore. Sound familiar?

The problem usually isn’t the tools, though. Typically, projects don’t fail because Gantt charts weren’t colourful enough. No. They generally fail because people weren’t led through uncertainty, change, and pressure effectively. That’s where a new way of thinking about project leadership comes into play.

The Human Factor of Projects

Modern projects live in a messy middle ground. Teams are hybrid, stakeholders are scattered, and priorities change faster than anyone would like. But in this ever-adapting environment, technical competence is only half the equation; the other half is undoubtedly having a good grasp on how people behave when plans change.

Strong project leaders know how to lead a room (even when that room is a video call full of muted microphones). This means they can spot disengagement early, manage conflict before it becomes personal, and keep momentum alive even when enthusiasm dips. Nowadays, these aren’t soft skills, either. They’re survival skills.

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Leaders realise that when they treat their teammates as projects, they commit to ensuring each member is more likely to succeed in their role. Theoretically, a team can only be as strong as its weakest link.

Approaching a team with the same mindset they would to a project, leaders can, to some degree, apply the same techniques they would to any other project, analysing the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats, to provide a well-rounded and decisive approach to helping their team members move forward. However, the human aspect should always remain in the balance. Everyone has a hard day now and again, and leaders need to identify when encouragement is as necessary as correction in the success of their projects.

When Process Isn’t Enough

Plenty of professionals reach a point where process alone stops delivering results. It’s inevitable. You can know the frameworks, you’ve run the workshops, and you can recite the methodology. Yet, some projects still stall. This is often the moment when the lightbulb switches on, and people realise they need to lead differently (not just manage harder).

Essentially, leadership in projects means making decisions without perfect information. It also means guiding teams through ambiguity and taking responsibility when outcomes aren’t guaranteed. It’s influence over authority, especially when you’re working across departments or with external partners who don’t report directly to you.

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Learning to Lead Under Pressure

Some people pick these skills up the hard way. Trial, error, and a few bruising project post-mortems. Other project leaders choose a more deliberate path and choose to build leadership capability alongside strategic thinking and real-world application.

That’s where advanced study comes into the picture. A postgraduate master’s in project leadership appeals to professionals who want to go beyond delivery and into decision-making at a higher level.

It’s not about ticking a qualification box, though. It’s learning how to steer complex initiatives, motivate teams, and align projects with long-term organisational goals. A master’s degree won’t do the work for you, but it sure will help give you the tools you need to be a great leader.

Why Experience Has Limits

Experience is invaluable. But let’s face it, it can also lock people into the same old patterns again and again. When you’ve “always done it this way”, it’s easy to miss better opportunities. Structured learning challenges those old habits by introducing new perspectives. It’ll expose you to different industries and force you to step back from day-to-day firefighting so you can thrive.

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Importantly, it also gives language to instincts many leaders already have. Things like emotional intelligence, ethical decision-making, and adaptive leadership often come naturally, but formal study helps refine and apply them with confidence.

Projects as a “Leadership Laboratory”

What is one of the most underrated benefits of project-focused leadership development? It’s how immediately practical it is! Think about it…

Projects are perfect for testing grounds, and you can apply ideas in real time. See what works, and adjust quickly when needed. Nothing personal.

Unlike abstract leadership theory, project leadership lives in the real world. And in the real world, budgets matter, deadlines are real, and stakeholders have opinions you need to take into careful consideration. At the end of the day, learning how to navigate these pressures while keeping teams engaged is what separates capable managers from trusted leaders.

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Rethinking What Success Looks Like

The most successful projects don’t just hit their targets. They leave teams stronger, processes clearer, and organisations feeling better prepared for what comes next. That kind of success doesn’t happen by accident.

It comes from leaders who understand that projects are temporary, but the people doing the work are not. When leaders invest in developing themselves, the ripple effects extend far beyond a single delivery date.

Project Leaders in the Australian Context

In Australia, project leaders are increasingly expected to juggle complexity. Infrastructure, technology, health, education, and environmental projects all come with high visibility and high stakes. There’s little tolerance for failure, but plenty of uncertainty baked into the work.

That reality has changed expectations exponentially. Employers aren’t just looking for people who can deliver outcomes; they want leaders who can build resilience, communicate clearly under pressure, and make decisions that stand up to scrutiny.

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Advanced leadership education reflects that, focusing on ethics, sustainability, and long-term impact over short-term wins.

Leading What Comes Next

As work becomes more complex and expectations continue to rise, project leadership will only grow in importance. The leaders who thrive will be those who can balance structure with empathy, strategy with adaptability, and ambition with responsibility.

Whether you’re already leading major projects or preparing for the next step, rethinking how you approach leadership can change the trajectory of everything, including your career. After all, projects may end, but the way you lead them tends to stick with you and your team.

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Apple Price Rises Confirmed as Memory Chip Crunch Bites, Says Tim Cook

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Apple Price Rises Confirmed as Memory Chip Crunch Bites, Says Tim Cook

Apple is preparing to raise the price of its products to absorb the soaring cost of memory and storage chips, chief executive Tim Cook has confirmed in an interview with The Wall Street Journal, in the clearest signal yet that the artificial-intelligence boom is now landing squarely in the consumer’s pocket.

“Unfortunately, price increases are unavoidable,” Cook told the newspaper. “We’re doing our best to mitigate the huge increases that are being passed to us, and we’ve been trying to shield our customers from the increases, but the situation has become unsustainable.”

Cook declined to specify when the rises would take effect, how large they might be, or which products would carry them. Apple’s next significant launch is expected in September, when the iPhone 18 range, tipped to include the company’s first foldable handset, is due to arrive. Price changes on Macs and iPads could come sooner. The group quietly lifted the starting price of the Mac Mini last month, between launch events.

The trigger is an extraordinary surge in demand for memory and storage chips from AI companies, which has pushed component costs up so sharply that Apple would have to raise device prices substantially simply to hold its margins steady. The research firm TechInsights estimates that passing the higher costs straight through to buyers, while protecting profitability, would add roughly $270 to the price of the next iPhone Pro.

Memory and storage chips sit inside almost every computing device, from smartphones and laptops to games consoles, medical equipment and cars. The problem is that AI servers are now consuming these chips in rapidly rising volumes, leaving even a company as cash-rich as Apple struggling to secure supply. As the company found with Trump-era tariffs that threatened to push iPhone prices sharply higher, external cost shocks have a habit of finding their way onto the shelf price.

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Since last year, when Google, Microsoft, Meta and Amazon began announcing big increases in their capital-spending budgets, the prices of memory and storage chips have both quadrupled. TechInsights expects both to keep climbing into 2027.

The two components do different jobs. Memory, known as DRAM, behaves like the desk in a mid-20th-century office, holding the papers a worker needs for the task in hand. Storage, known as NAND, is the filing cabinet that holds everything else. A smartphone uses DRAM to run the apps currently open, and NAND to file away photos and videos.

Cook said both markets were a concern, but singled out DRAM, pointing to the growing share being diverted to so-called high-bandwidth memory used in AI servers. “There’s less supply at a time when consumers want devices and the memory guys are passing along huge price increases,” he said. “We definitely need memory pricing and supply to return to reasonable levels for consumer products. That’s the bottom line.”

Three companies dominate DRAM: Samsung and SK Hynix in South Korea, and Micron in the United States. NAND is made by those three plus Kioxia and Sandisk. Their share prices and profits have exploded over the past twelve months, with Micron and SK Hynix up more than 800 per cent, and Kioxia and Sandisk up some 4,600 per cent.

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Capacity is being added, but not fast enough for consumer buyers. Morgan Stanley forecasts that production capacity for DRAM wafers, the silicon discs on which chips are patterned, will grow 30 per cent by 2027. Yet as suppliers prioritise specialised AI memory, wafers for consumer technology are expected to fall up to 15 per cent short of demand. The squeeze is not Apple’s alone: industry analysts at IEEE Spectrum have charted how the AI build-out is draining DRAM supply away from the mainstream electronics that households actually buy.

China has national champions in memory and storage, but under national-security rules American companies would probably need licences to work with them. Asked whether those restrictions should be eased, Cook said: “I think everything needs to be on the table,” adding, “I think we should look at all supply.”

Apple is far from alone. Hewlett-Packard, Dell and Nintendo have all raised prices, and a consortium of industry associations recently wrote to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick complaining about the over-allocation of memory to AI buyers and asking for help to lift supply. The pressure on consumer pricing has been building for months, as Business Matters reported when memory costs threatened to add hundreds of pounds to the price of an ordinary laptop.

Morgan Stanley estimates a 15 per cent rise in smartphone and PC prices in the United States this year. The effect on the consumer price index should be modest, given the small weighting such devices carry, but any rise on the popular iPhone is likely to attract attention in Washington. Bloomberg has described the resulting crunch as a fully fledged chip crisis, with prices climbing across the board.

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Compounding matters, Apple needs additional DRAM to power more AI features, including the rebooted Siri unveiled last week. The company has also long relied on NAND storage upgrades to lift profits, charging $100 to $200 for extra increments that cost it a fraction of that, the very products now caught in the price spiral.

In the interview, Cook said Apple was ready to deploy its cash reserves to help boost memory supply. “We’re willing to use our balance sheet to help be a part of the solution,” he said. “Obviously, more capacity is needed.”

He offered no specifics, and the practical difficulty is plain. It is unclear how Apple could match, let alone beat, the terms AI hyperscalers are offering to lock up supply: three-to-five-year agreements with large cash prepayments that run against Apple’s long tradition of disciplined spending. Nor will the company build its own factories. “We can’t do everything,” Cook said. “We know what we’re good at.”

Apple spends in the low tens of billions of dollars a year on memory and storage, according to people familiar with its costs, making it one of the largest buyers in the world. Historically it has used that heft to wring the keenest prices from suppliers, playing them off against one another. Now, with AI companies storming the market, even Apple has to queue.

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For Cook, who has spent more than four decades in the electronics supply chain at IBM, Compaq and Apple, the swing is without precedent. “This is a hundred-year flood,” he said. “I’ve never seen anything like it in any area in over 40 years.”

For consumers and the small businesses that kit out their teams with iPhones, iPads and Macs, the message is blunt: the AI gold rush now has a price tag, and it is about to appear on the till receipt.


Jamie Young

Jamie Young

Jamie is Senior Reporter at Business Matters, bringing over a decade of experience in UK SME business reporting.
Jamie holds a degree in Business Administration and regularly participates in industry conferences and workshops.

When not reporting on the latest business developments, Jamie is passionate about mentoring up-and-coming journalists and entrepreneurs to inspire the next generation of business leaders.

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Heathrow's 'critical' expansion blueprint released

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Heathrow's 'critical' expansion blueprint released

A consultation is launched on the Heathrow expansion, outlining conditions for the project to go ahead.

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Brexit cost 6% of UK economy, Bank of England company data suggests

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Brexit cost 6% of UK economy, Bank of England company data suggests

Analysis showed how much the UK could have grown if it had not exited the EU.

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Five ways the Iran peace deal could affect you and your money

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Five ways the Iran peace deal could affect you and your money

With fuel and gas prices having fallen in recent days, we look at how the end of hostitlities might affect you – in five charts.

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US stocks: US market’s indexes advance with boost from chips, Iran optimism

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US stocks: US market's indexes advance with boost from chips, Iran optimism
U.S. stock indexes closed higher on Thursday, with a strong boost from semiconductor shares and easing inflation fears, although investors still priced in interest rate hikes this year from the Federal Reserve.

The Philadelphia semiconductor index sharply outperformed the rest of the market as ‌Intel’s shares jumped to ⁠a record ⁠high. U.S. President Donald Trump said iPhone maker Apple had agreed to work with Intel to design and manufacture its chips in the U.S.

Early in the session, oil prices slid to their lowest levels since early March after the U.S. and Iran signed an interim agreement that extends the April ceasefire by another 60 days to allow the sides time to reach a final deal.

Although Trump threatened to resume attacks if Iran failed to honor its commitments, the first ships started sailing through the Strait of Hormuz, where transportation of oil, gas, fertilizer and other cargoes had been disrupted since the start of the war.

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According to preliminary data, the S&P 500 gained ⁠78.31 points, ‌or 1.06%, to end at 7,498.41 points, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 496.28 points, or 1.87%, to 26,507.05. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 70.29 points, or 0.14%, to 51,562.84.


Also Read | SpaceX bankers prepare for bond sale of at least $20 billion
All three of Wall Street’s major indexes tumbled in ⁠the previous session as investors priced in the likelihood of Fed rate hikes, after the central bank’s new Chair Kevin Warsh underscored the need to curb inflation and other policymakers signaled higher borrowing costs ahead.
“Markets got spooked by Warsh yesterday essentially promising to contain inflation,” said Tony Welch, chief investment officer at SignatureFD, but he pointed to easing oil prices and recent strength in earnings and economic data. “All together, the package of data is still supportive whether or not the Fed has become a little bit more hawkish.”
Traders were betting on a roughly 50% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike as soon as September and a roughly 20% probability for a 50-basis-point hike, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

Investors were still ‌assessing Warsh’s indication that the Fed would provide less guidance on future policy moves and his stated focus on price stability. Eric Johnston, chief equity and macro strategist at Cantor, said: “The conclusion today is that the Fed has more credibility around inflation.”

On the data front, Labor ⁠Department data showed the number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits fell last week as layoffs remained low.

In individual stocks, shares of Accenture tumbled after the company trimmed the top end of its annual revenue forecast. Peers including Cognizant Technology Solutions , Gartner and IBM fell in sympathy.

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Among other movers, Kroger shares fell after the grocer reported a lower-than-expected profit for the first quarter and kept its annual forecasts unchanged. Shares in Elon Musk’s SpaceX fell for a second straight day, after the space and AI company had rallied sharply for the first few days of trading after its market debut last Friday.

Thursday also marked the once-in-a-quarter simultaneous expiry of derivatives contracts tied to stocks, index options and futures, also known as “triple witching,” which can boost trading volume and aggravate volatility.

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Who should pay on the first date

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Who should pay on the first date

Ask a group of friends and you’ll likely get a dozen different answers. Some insist the bill should always be split equally, others believe the person who sets up the date should pay and despite changing attitudes towards gender roles, many still see a man picking up the bill as a romantic gesture rather than an outdated tradition.

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The artificial ice pyramids saving India's mountain villages

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The artificial ice pyramids saving India's mountain villages

Himalayan villages are creating artificial glaciers to guarantee water for their crops in the spring.

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Biggest ever US clean energy project is complete after nearly two decades

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Biggest ever US clean energy project is complete after nearly two decades


Biggest ever US clean energy project is complete after nearly two decades

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USD/THB Overbought Signals Mask Persistent Upside Risks, OCBC Warns

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Thailand tightens regulations on large cash withdrawals in a new crackdown on grey funds

OCBC analysis suggests that while the USD/THB exchange rate shows critical overbought signals, there are still significant upside risks that should be considered.


Key Points

  • OCBC’s analysis on the USD/THB exchange rate highlights critical overbought signals indicating a potential correction.
  • Despite these signals, the report emphasizes ongoing upside risks for the USD/THB rate, suggesting that the potential for further increases remains significant.
  • Investors are advised to stay cautious, as market conditions may still favor the US dollar against the Thai baht.

Current Market Conditions

The analysis from OCBC highlights the current state of the USD/THB exchange rate, signaling critical overbought conditions that may obscure underlying risks. The increasing value of the USD against the Thai Baht (THB) is underpinned by a combination of global economic factors and local monetary policies. These factors are pushing the exchange rate further, attracting both domestic and international interest. Despite these indicators pointing towards a potential market correction, the rising demand for the USD suggests that such a correction may not materialize in the immediate term, thus lifting the volatility in the currency pair.

Future Projections

Looking ahead, OCBC emphasizes that while overbought signals indicate a potential slowdown for the USD/THB, there remains persistent upside risk. Economic resilience in the U.S. continues to exert pressure on the Asian currencies, including the THB. Trade dynamics and capital flows, influenced by the economic strategies of the U.S. and Thailand, could impact the exchange rate significantly. Investors should be cautious; the interplay of these forces means that even amidst overbought conditions, the USD may still experience upward momentum.

Strategic Implications for Investors

Investors aiming to navigate the fluctuations in the USD/THB exchange rate should take into account the complex dynamics at play. The analysis suggests that careful monitoring is essential; overbought conditions may provide limited short-term opportunities for profit-taking, but downside risks remain pronounced. As both domestic economic data and global developments unfold, investors must remain adaptable, ready to respond to new information that could influence the long-term trajectory of the USD/THB. Strategizing with risk management in mind will be essential to capitalize on potential market shifts while safeguarding against unforeseen losses.

Source : Critical Overbought Signals Mask Persistent Upside Risks – OCBC Analysis

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