In its base case, the report expects India’s real GDP growth to moderate to 7.1 per cent in FY27, which is still healthy and slightly above potential.

The growth will be supported by robust private consumption and a mild pick-up in private investment.

Private investment sentiment is improving with a recovery in private capex underway, driven by emerging sectors, according to the report.

It also expects export growth to maintain momentum, supported by lower US tariffs relative to FY26, steady global growth and robust services exports even as frontloading benefits fade.

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The retail inflation is likely to rise to 4.3 per cent on average in FY27 from an estimated 2.5 per cent in FY26. As food prices are expected to remain benign, assuming a normal monsoon in 2026, inflation should normalise from its current lows.
“The reduced weight of food in the new CPI 2024 series should contain the upside to headline from normalising food inflation,” the report added.Headline retail inflation is likely to remain close to the central value of the RBI’s tolerance band. This would allow the central bank to hold the repo rate and focus on transmitting the 125 bps rate cut implemented in calendar year 2025, Crisil said.

The report expects that policy rates will remain steady in FY27; the cumulative rate cut of 125 bps undertaken in calendar year 2025 will continue to be transmitted to bank lending and deposit rates.

“We also expect the RBI to remain proactive on liquidity management. We expect financial conditions to remain resilient in fiscal 2027 amid a supportive monetary policy and strong macro fundamentals.”

Yamaha Motor Co. is relocating its U.S. headquarters from California to Georgia after nearly a half century of operations in the Golden State.

The company announced late last month that it will move the corporate headquarters of its U.S. entity from Cypress, California, to Kennesaw, Georgia. It added that the relocation will occur incrementally by business function, starting in late 2026, and is expected to conclude in late 2028.

Yamaha said in its announcement the move is “undertaking structural reforms aimed at improving the profitability of its U.S. operations in response to cost increases resulting from U.S. tariffs and changes in the market environment.”

CALIFORNIA TECH LEADERS CHALLENGE PROGRESSIVE POLICIES AS BILLIONAIRES, BUSINESSES FLEE

Yamaha Motor Co.’s U.S. headquarters has been located in Cypress, California, since 1979. (Alexander Tamargo/Getty Images for Yamaha Motor Co., LTD)

The company manufactures ATVs, boat engines, personal watercraft and other motorized products. It is also known for its motorcycles, though they are not produced in North America.

PUBLIC STORAGE RELOCATES HEADQUARTERS FROM CALIFORNIA TO TEXAS

Yamaha established its office in Cypress in 1979, a year after acquiring the land. It relocated its marine business to Kennesaw in 1999 and its motorsports business there in 2019. The California office houses mostly corporate functions and the financial services business, Yamaha said.

“After many years of great partnership, we are honored and proud to welcome Yamaha’s American headquarters to the No. 1 state for business,” said Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp. “This is another loud and clear testament to what we offer job creators from around the world. To any other California-based companies looking for a better home, we’ll give you plenty of reasons to keep Georgia on your mind.”

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp speaks during an election night rally in Atlanta on Nov. 8, 2022. (Elijah Nouvelage/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

RICH CALIFORNIANS FLOCK TO LAS VEGAS HOUSING MARKET AS LAWMAKERS CONSIDER WEALTH TAX

Yamaha employs more than 2,300 workers in Georgia, according to Kemp’s office.

The move adds to a broader trend of relocations out of California by both corporations and individuals, as the high cost of doing business and a proposed wealth tax on the state’s highest earners weighs.

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A new green hydrogen production facility is set to be built in Milford Haven, Wales, marking a significant development for the UK’s emerging low-carbon hydrogen sector.

Commodities trading giant Trafigura confirmed that its energy arm, MorGen Energy, has approved the West Wales Hydrogen project, which will be located on the site of a former oil refinery in the Pembrokeshire port. Construction is expected to begin later this year, with the facility designed to produce around 2,000 tonnes of hydrogen annually.

The project represents one of the first commercial-scale hydrogen schemes to move forward under the UK government’s hydrogen allocation programme, which provides financial support to accelerate the development of low-carbon hydrogen production.

The Milford Haven facility will produce hydrogen using electrolysis, a process that splits water into hydrogen and oxygen using electricity generated from renewable sources.

Trafigura said the plant will be powered primarily by wind energy, ensuring the hydrogen produced qualifies as green hydrogen, meaning it generates no carbon emissions during production.

The hydrogen produced will be used across a range of industrial applications, including industrial heating, manufacturing processes and potentially transport, supporting efforts to decarbonise sectors that are difficult to electrify.

Michael Shanks, the UK’s energy minister, described the development as a major milestone for Britain’s clean energy ambitions.

“This project represents one of the UK’s first commercial-scale low-carbon hydrogen production plants,” he said.

To make the project financially viable, the UK government has agreed to guarantee a level of income for the plant for 15 years.

This support is designed to bridge the so-called “operating cost gap” between hydrogen production and conventional fossil fuels, which remain significantly cheaper in many cases.

In addition to the long-term revenue support mechanism, the project will also receive grant funding as part of the government’s broader strategy to scale up hydrogen production across the country.

Trafigura chief executive Richard Holtum said government support had been crucial to securing the final investment decision.

“The government’s backing was key to this project reaching final investment decision — demonstrating how public policy and private capital can work together to deliver new clean energy infrastructure,” he said.

The UK government has previously identified hydrogen as a critical part of its long-term decarbonisation strategy, particularly for heavy industry and sectors where electrification alone may not be sufficient.

Former prime minister Boris Johnson set a target in 2022 for the UK to produce 10 gigawatts of clean hydrogen capacity by 2030.

However, progress has been slower than expected. Several high-profile projects have stalled or been cancelled, including BP’s planned large-scale hydrogen development, which was scrapped in December.

Industry leaders have warned that the UK’s hydrogen ambitions risk falling behind competing economies due to delays in infrastructure, investment uncertainty and insufficient demand for hydrogen fuel.

Clare Jackson, chief executive of industry group Hydrogen UK, previously said the government’s 2030 production target now appeared “undeliverable” without faster policy and investment action.

Hydrogen is widely seen as an important part of the global transition to low-carbon energy systems because it produces no harmful emissions when burned.

There are two main ways hydrogen can be produced with lower carbon impact.

Green hydrogen is created using renewable electricity to split water into hydrogen and oxygen through electrolysis. Blue hydrogen is produced using natural gas, with the resulting carbon emissions captured and stored using carbon capture technology.

Potential uses for hydrogen include powering industrial processes, fuelling heavy transport, providing energy storage and potentially replacing natural gas for heating.

The UK government has described hydrogen as “essential” to achieving its ambitions to become a clean energy superpower while also supporting economic growth and industrial decarbonisation.

The electrolysers used in the Milford Haven project will be supplied by ITM Power, the Sheffield-based hydrogen technology company.

Electrolysers are the core technology used to split water molecules into hydrogen and oxygen using electricity, and demand for the equipment is expected to increase significantly as hydrogen production expands globally.

The involvement of ITM Power also highlights the potential for hydrogen projects to support UK manufacturing and technology supply chains.

Despite growing interest in hydrogen, the industry still faces several structural challenges.

These include the need for new pipelines and storage infrastructure, greater industrial demand for hydrogen fuel, and viable commercial business models to support production costs.

In the case of blue hydrogen projects, the development of carbon capture and storage infrastructure is also essential to ensure emissions are safely contained.

While the Milford Haven project is relatively modest in scale compared with some international hydrogen developments, it represents an important step in building a commercial hydrogen market in the UK.

As the country continues its transition toward cleaner energy sources, projects such as the West Wales Hydrogen plant are expected to play a key role in testing how hydrogen can be produced, distributed and used at scale across the British economy.

Jamie Young

Jamie is Senior Reporter at Business Matters, bringing over a decade of experience in UK SME business reporting.
Jamie holds a degree in Business Administration and regularly participates in industry conferences and workshops.

When not reporting on the latest business developments, Jamie is passionate about mentoring up-and-coming journalists and entrepreneurs to inspire the next generation of business leaders.

Listen below or on the go on Apple Podcasts and Spotify

February CPI meets expectations, but oil shock threatens renewed inflation surge. (0:15) Campbell’s shares slide after it cuts full-year outlook. (1:27) JPMorgan tightens lending against private-credit loans tied to software. (2:32)

This is an abridged transcript of the podcast:

Our top story so far, inflation holds steady, for now.

The February CPI showed modest monthly increases in both the headline and the core, matching expectations.

Annual CPI held at 2.4%, and core CPI stayed at 2.5%.

But the numbers don’t yet reflect the shock from the U.S.–Israel–Iran war, which pushed crude oil above $100 a barrel from about $65 before the action. Oil is currently around $87.

Economist Joseph Brusuelas of RSM sees the CPI topline rising to 3% year over year in March — and 3.5% or more in April.

“That will not provide much comfort to an American central bank now focused like a laser beam on short- and medium-term inflation expectations — and on notice for any bleeding of topline inflation into the core,” he said.

Skyler Weinand, CIO of Regan Capital, says tariff refunds — if they appear — will also juice prices.

The Fed’s attention now turns to the February core PCE price index, out Friday.

Pantheon Macroeconomics notes the CPI components feeding into that gauge were “hot.”

“The jump in prices for computer software will boost the core PCE deflator by 0.08 percentage point alone,” they said.

And bad news for travelers — airfares jumped 7% last month, even before the surge in jet fuel.

Among active stocks, Campbell’s (CPB) is the biggest S&P decliner after it lowered its full-year outlook, reflecting a more cautious view for the balance of the year.

Campbell’s now expects full-year organic sales growth of –1% to –2%, versus its prior –1% to +1% range. Adjusted EPS of $2.15 to $2.25 — midpoint $2.20 — is well below the prior $2.40 to $2.55 outlook and the $2.41 consensus.

Starz Entertainment (STRZ) said its board has adopted a poison pill to stave off hostile takeover attempts.

The rights activate only if a person or group acquires 17.5% or more of the equity. Each right allows shareholders to purchase one share at $93.

The move comes days after media mogul Byron Allen bought a 10.7% stake in the company — a stake previously held by Hollywood producer and former Trump Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.

And Nebius (NBIS) is popping after announcing that Nvidia (NVDA) will invest $2B in the Dutch AI infrastructure provider as part of a strategic partnership to develop the next generation of hyperscale cloud for the AI market.

The partnership will help Nebius deploy more than 5 gigawatts of Nvidia systems by the end of 2030.

And in other news of note, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) has marked down the value of certain loans held by private-credit groups and is tightening its lending to the sector, according to the Financial Times.

The move limits how much the bank will lend against those loans going forward.

The devalued loans are tied to software companies — a sector that’s been in the spotlight in recent weeks.

CEO Jamie Dimon told investors at the bank’s leveraged-finance conference last week that JPMorgan is being more prudent in lending against software assets, the FT said.

A source added the shift was made preemptively to reduce the amount of credit available to the funds. Private-credit executives told the paper they haven’t seen other banks take a similar approach.

And in the Wall Street Research Corner, Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives is pushing back against the ongoing software-sector (IGV) selloff, calling it the “most disconnected” technology trade he has seen in 15 to 20 years.

Ives argues that fears of AI disrupting traditional software companies have been overblown — leading to what he calls an “AI ghost trade” that has unfairly punished the group.

“It’s ultimately software — the use cases from Salesforce (CRM) to ServiceNow (NOW) to cybersecurity — that’s gonna protect CrowdStrike (CRWD), Palo Alto Networks (PANW) and others,” Ives said. “I think it’s the most sold off I’ve seen this sector in decades.”

In a post on X, Kamath said serious hedgers typically rely on options contracts with maturities of 30 days or longer, but the market has increasingly shifted toward ultra-short-term contracts following the rise of weekly expiries.

According to data shared by Kamath, the open interest (OI) structure of Nifty index options has changed sharply over the past decade. In 2015, contracts expiring within 0-7 days accounted for about 18.8% of total index options open interest. Today, that share has surged to around 60.4%, reflecting a significant concentration of trading in near-term contracts.

At the same time, the share of 16-30 day contracts has dropped sharply from around 30% in 2015 to just about 12% now, indicating that longer-dated options, typically used for portfolio hedging, have lost liquidity.

Kamath said the shift has been even more dramatic when measured in terms of trading volumes. Total index options contracts traded per quarter have surged from about 564 million in 2015 to a peak of 34.9 billion in the third quarter of 2024, representing a roughly 62-fold increase.

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However, he noted that the growth has been driven almost entirely by contracts with maturities of less than seven days, suggesting that the surge in activity reflects speculative trading rather than traditional risk management.
“The market has structurally shifted from hedging to speculation,” Kamath said in his post.While the surge in liquidity is positive for market participation, he warned that it has created an imbalance in the options market structure. Liquidity is now heavily concentrated in very short-dated contracts, while longer-tenor options, which institutional investors and portfolio managers use to hedge risks, have become relatively thin.

This imbalance becomes particularly visible during periods of elevated volatility, such as the current geopolitical tensions involving Iran, Israel and the United States.

Kamath said that during such episodes, investors looking to buy protection through longer-dated options often find it difficult to execute meaningful hedges because liquidity in those contracts has dried up.

“When volatility spikes, buying meaningful insurance is difficult precisely when people need it most,” he said.

He argued that a healthy derivatives market should offer liquidity across multiple time horizons, including 30-day, 60-day and 90-day contracts, rather than concentrating almost entirely on near-week expiries.

To address the imbalance, Kamath suggested that regulators and exchanges could consider pricing incentives to encourage longer-tenor options trading. Measures such as lower securities transaction tax (STT), reduced exchange charges and lower brokerage costs for options positions held beyond 30 days could help attract more activity to longer-dated contracts.

Sir Winston Churchill and other historic figures currently featured on British banknotes are set to be replaced by wildlife under plans announced by the Bank of England following a nationwide public consultation.

The central bank confirmed that future designs for £5, £10, £20 and £50 notes will focus on animals, birds and other aspects of the natural world, marking a significant departure from more than half a century of celebrating historical personalities on UK currency.

Figures who could eventually disappear from circulation include the wartime prime minister Winston Churchill, novelist Jane Austen, landscape painter JMW Turner, and mathematician and codebreaker Alan Turing.

While the historical portraits will gradually be phased out, the monarch will continue to appear on the reverse side of all British banknotes.

The shift follows a major public consultation conducted by the Bank of England to determine what theme should appear on the next generation of banknotes.

According to the bank, more than 44,000 people took part in the consultation, with around 60 per cent of respondents selecting nature and wildlife as their preferred theme for future notes.

Other themes considered included architecture and landmarks (56 per cent), historical figures (38 per cent), arts, culture and sport (30 per cent), innovation (23 per cent) and notable milestones (19 per cent).

Victoria Cleland, the Bank of England’s chief cashier, said the redesign was primarily driven by security considerations but also offered an opportunity to showcase British identity in a different way.

“The key driver for introducing a new banknote series is always to increase counterfeit resilience,” she said. “But it also provides an opportunity to celebrate different aspects of the UK. Nature is a great choice from a banknote authentication perspective and means we can showcase the UK’s rich and varied wildlife.”

The Bank of England said nature-themed imagery offers advantages in combating counterfeiting, as detailed illustrations of animals, birds and landscapes are harder to reproduce illegally.

Future notes will incorporate the latest anti-counterfeiting technology alongside complex visual designs, making them more secure than existing polymer banknotes.

The redesign process is expected to take several years, with the new series unlikely to enter circulation until the late 2020s after extensive testing, design development and manufacturing preparations.

An expert panel has been assembled to create a shortlist of wildlife species that could feature on the new banknotes before the final selection is put to a public vote.

The panel includes wildlife filmmakers and presenters Gordon Buchanan, Miranda Krestovnikoff and Nadeem Perera, alongside conservation specialists including Katy Bell of Ulster Wildlife and academics Steve Ormerod and Dawn Scott.

The group will identify animals and natural scenes that reflect the diversity of ecosystems across the UK’s four nations.

Perera said wildlife is deeply intertwined with British identity and culture.

“The wildlife of the UK is not separate from our culture, it sits in our football crests, our folklore, our coastlines and our childhoods,” he said. “Giving it space on something as symbolic as our currency feels both overdue and significant.”

Despite the changes to the reverse side of the notes, the monarch will continue to appear on the front of all Bank of England currency.

Royal portraits have featured on British coins for more than 1,000 years, while Queen Elizabeth II appeared on banknotes from the 1960s onwards.

The Bank confirmed that the new designs will maintain this longstanding tradition.

The Bank of England has previously faced criticism over the lack of diversity among the figures featured on its notes.

Since historical personalities were first introduced to banknotes in 1970, none have represented Black or ethnic minority figures.

The move toward nature-themed imagery avoids debates about which historical figures should be included and instead highlights national landscapes and wildlife.

Future designs may also incorporate plants, habitats and landscapes alongside animals to create more complex and distinctive visual themes.

The development of a new banknote series is a lengthy process involving design competitions, security testing and approval by the Bank of England’s leadership.

The shortlist of wildlife candidates is expected to be unveiled later this year, with final approval resting with Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England.

Once the design process is complete, the notes will enter a testing and printing phase before being gradually introduced into circulation.

If approved, the next generation of British currency will represent a dramatic visual change, replacing some of the country’s most recognisable historical portraits with images of the natural world.

Jamie Young

Jamie is Senior Reporter at Business Matters, bringing over a decade of experience in UK SME business reporting.
Jamie holds a degree in Business Administration and regularly participates in industry conferences and workshops.

When not reporting on the latest business developments, Jamie is passionate about mentoring up-and-coming journalists and entrepreneurs to inspire the next generation of business leaders.

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