The raging war in the oil-rich Middle East has rattled stock markets across the globe, with Dalal Street being no exception. After crashing more than 11% in March, Elara Securities said that historical patterns suggest limited downside for the benchmark index Nifty.

The domestic brokerage cited data from the timeframes of seven major geopolitical conflicts in the past 25 years – Iraq war (2003), the Lebanon war (2006), the Libyan Civil War (2011), Russia–Ukraine (2022), Israel–Hamas war (2023), Iran–Israel conflict (2025), and the ongoing US–Iran escalation. It said that Nifty’s drawdown during the onset of conflicts has usually been capped at approximately 10%. Hence, historical patterns suggest limited downside for the benchmark index now, after the 11% crash in March.

“Importantly, once early signs of normalisation emerge, markets tend to recover swiftly,” Elara said. However, it noted that the key exception to this historical pattern was in calendar years 2011-2014 when Brent sustained above $100 per barrel, leading to a prolonged sideways market without meaningful highs. The eventual decline in oil prices acted as the trigger for a strong Nifty upcycle, it added.

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Nifty’s valuation below the long-term trend signals a potential rebound

Elara assessed the one-year forward P/E relative to its rolling 10-year average and concluded the Nifty is trading 7% below its 10-year average, placing it in a historical “bounce zone”. “Outside of extreme disruptions like COVID-19, this level usually acted as a floor for valuation. Even during the Russia–Ukraine conflict, despite Brent sustaining above USD 100/bbl, Nifty multiples bounced back from 10-year rolling averages,” it said.

“The recent TACO and Iran allowing ‘nonhostile ships’ to transit the Strait of Hormuz, along with crude oil prices dropping below USD 100/bbl, have reduced immediate energy supply risks. With our base case assuming gradual de-escalation, the current valuation provides a favourable entry point, with limited downside. We pick 20 value plays which offer a good risk-reward opportunity with healthy fundamentals in the current scenario of extreme correction,” the brokerage added.

Elara’s top pics

Auto and power remain Elara’s preferred bets, which added that large-cap auto stocks like Maruti Suzuki and Royal Enfield-maker Eicher Motors have corrected sharply since the onset of the US-Iran conflict. While near-term concerns persist around input cost pressures from elevated commodity prices and potential demand moderation in the event of a prolonged conflict triggering an inflation shock for consumers, underlying retail data remains robust and encouraging, it further said.
The domestic brokerage added that Vahan retail registrations so far show strong double-digit growth, and this momentum is expected to receive further tailwinds from the Eighth Pay Commission awards, slated for announcement early next year.Within the power sector, 18 out of the 19 utility stocks under the brokerage’s coverage have outperformed the Nifty 50 in current drawdown, which the firm said underscores the sector’s relative resilience. “The escalating conflict is expected to accelerate India’s electrification cycle, while surging data centre capex is driving incremental power demand. This positive backdrop is further supported by the likely passage of the New Electricity Amendment Bill, which will unlock structural reforms in the sector. Consequently, power generation, transmission, distribution, and data centre-linked plays are emerging not merely as defensive anchors but as clear structural beneficiaries in the medium to long term. NTPC, NLC India, and ACME Solar remain our highest conviction picks within the space,” it added.

Also read: FY26 IPO market a disaster as investors lose money in 2 out of 3 issues. Will next year be better?

Where is the value currently?

In its report, Elara listed out several stocks emerging with better risk-reward dynamics where fundamentals remain intact, and valuation is either trading below the five-year median, and in some cases even below the Russia–Ukraine crisis lows.

These include HDFC Bank, Maruti Suzuki, Eicher Motors, Infosys, LTI Mindtree, L&T, Godrej Properties, NTPC, NLC India, ACME Solar and Eternal.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

There’s a subtle difference between self-care and self-respect.

Self-care is often portrayed as something occasional—spa days, special routines, moments carved out for relaxation. It’s visible, sometimes even performative.

Self-respect, on the other hand, is quieter. It lives in the decisions you make when no one is watching. It shows up in consistency, in the standards you set for yourself, and in the way you engage with your daily routines.

And perhaps surprisingly, it’s often reflected in the most ordinary products you use.

The Standard You Accept

Every product you use sets a baseline.

Not just for performance, but for what you consider “good enough.”

If something works “well enough,” you keep using it. If it causes minor irritation or discomfort, you might ignore it. Over time, these small compromises become normalized.

This is how standards quietly drift.

But when you choose something like aluminum and baking soda free deodorant, you’re making a different kind of decision. You’re saying that “good enough” isn’t enough—that your comfort, your skin, and your long-term well-being matter.

It’s not a dramatic statement. It’s a quiet adjustment in standards.

The Daily Mirror

Your routine is a mirror.

Not in the literal sense, but in what it reflects back to you about how you treat yourself.

Do you rush through it, using whatever is easiest?
Do you pay attention to how things feel?
Do you notice when something isn’t working for you?

These questions aren’t about perfection. They’re about awareness.

Using an organic face soap, for example, can shift your experience from purely functional to slightly more intentional. The ingredients, the texture, the way it interacts with your skin—all of it becomes part of a more attentive process.

You’re not just washing your face. You’re engaging with the act.

And that engagement reflects a form of respect.

The Relationship You Have with Routine

Most routines are built on autopilot.

You wake up, go through the motions, and move on. Efficiency takes priority over experience.

But routines are also opportunities.

They’re moments that repeat every day, giving you consistent chances to reinforce how you approach yourself.

When you introduce products that require a bit more attention—like aluminum and baking soda free deodorant—you interrupt the autopilot just enough to notice what you’re doing.

That moment of noticing is small, but it matters.

It turns a routine into a relationship.

Comfort as a Priority, Not a Bonus

In many cases, comfort is treated as optional.

If a product works, slight discomfort is tolerated. It’s seen as a trade-off, not a problem.

But what if comfort were the baseline?

Choosing products that align with your body—ones that avoid common irritants or unnecessary additives—shifts comfort from a bonus to a priority.

An organic face soap, for instance, often emphasizes gentler ingredients. It’s not about doing more—it’s about doing what’s necessary without excess.

This approach respects your skin’s natural state rather than overriding it.

And that respect, repeated daily, becomes part of your standard.

The Language of Consistency

Self-respect is not built on occasional actions. It’s built on consistency.

What you do every day matters more than what you do once in a while.

The products you use daily are part of that consistency. They are tools that either support or undermine your standards.

When you consistently choose items that align with your values—whether that’s comfort, simplicity, or awareness—you reinforce those values internally.

You’re not just making a choice once. You’re making it every day.

Small Decisions, Lasting Impact

It’s easy to dismiss small decisions as insignificant.

A different deodorant.
A different soap.

But these decisions are repeated hundreds, even thousands of times over the course of your life.

And repetition is what gives them weight.

Each time you choose something that aligns with your standards, you reinforce a pattern.

Over time, that pattern becomes part of who you are.

Not in a dramatic way, but in a steady, cumulative one.

Moving Away from Neglect

There’s a subtle form of neglect that often goes unnoticed.

It’s not about ignoring yourself entirely. It’s about settling.

Using products that are “fine.”
Ignoring small discomforts.
Avoiding the effort of finding something better.

This kind of neglect is easy to justify because it doesn’t feel serious.

But over time, it adds up.

Shifting to more intentional choices—like selecting aluminum and baking soda free deodorant or using organic face soap—is a way of moving away from that pattern.

It’s not about perfection. It’s about paying attention.

Respect Without Complexity

There’s a misconception that treating yourself well requires complexity—multiple products, elaborate routines, constant upgrades.

But self-respect doesn’t have to be complicated.

It can be simple.

Choosing products that align with your needs.
Paying attention to how they feel.
Making small adjustments when something isn’t right.

These are straightforward actions, but they carry meaning.

They show that you value your own experience, even in the smallest ways.

The Internal Shift

At first, these choices might feel external—just different products, different routines.

But over time, they create an internal shift.

You become more aware.
More selective.
More aligned with what works for you.

This shift extends beyond personal care.

It influences how you approach other areas of your life:
What you eat.
How you spend your time.
What you prioritize.

It all starts with small, consistent decisions.

Conclusion: The Way You Do Small Things

There’s a well-known idea that the way you do small things reflects the way you do everything.

Your daily routine is made up of small things.

The products you use.
The time you spend.
The attention you give.

By choosing items like aluminum and baking soda free deodorant and organic face soap, you’re not just changing what you use.

You’re changing how you approach yourself.

With more attention.
With higher standards.
With quiet, consistent respect.

And while these changes may seem minor, they have a way of shaping something much larger:

The relationship you have with yourself, every single day.

This article was written by

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of ALL STOCKS MENTIONED either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

I am not offering financial advice but only my personal opinion. Investors may take further aspects and their own due diligence into consideration before making a decision.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Mumbai: The rupee on Monday slumped to breach the psychologically crucial barrier of 95/$, upending market expectations of a stronger year-end showing, as it finished FY26 by retreating the most in 14 years – nearly 11%.

The last month, coinciding with the Iran war, was particularly brutal and accounted for a 4% decline. The currency, which touched an all-time low of 95.21/$, had briefly advanced to 93.59/$ in the early hours, its strongest level on Monday. The trading amplitude for the unit was one of the widest Monday.

Intervention from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in the last 15 minutes of trading lifted the local currency to close at 94.83/$ on the last trading day of the year. It closed at 94.81/$ on Friday.

The rupee was widely expected to strengthen on Monday.

Rupee Seen Staying at 94-95 per Dollar

This was following Friday’s central bank directives to curb lenders’ open positions in FX to $100 million. However, high dollar demand from oil companies, importers and hedge funds caused the rupee to retrace its steps and trade at record lows, traders said.
“The curbs by RBI created an arbitrage between NDF and onshore rates. With simultaneous buying in the NDF market and selling in the domestic market, along with year-end dollar demand from oil companies and corporates, the rupee came under pressure,” said Anil Bhansali, head of treasury, Finrex Treasury Advisors.
The rupee is expected to remain between 94/$ and 95/$ on April 2, when the market opens after a 2-day holiday.
Currency markets are closed on March 31, April 1, and April 3, making this a short trading week.

The currency opened at 93.59/$ on Monday and depreciated continuously till about 3:15 PM to a low of 95.22/$. At these levels, dollar sales by the RBI helped trim losses, allowing the rupee to close slightly stronger.

“Push for dollars from oil companies, importers, hedge funds and corporates was very high due to sharp rupee appreciation in the morning,” said Kunal Sodhani, head of treasury at Shinhan Bank India.