The Indian benchmark **Nifty 50** index experienced sharp volatility on Monday amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and rising global oil prices, as trading resumed in Mumbai following a steep decline at the end of the previous week.

As of mid-morning on March 16, 2026, the Nifty 50 was trading around 23,045 to 23,200 levels, showing mixed movements with an intraday range between approximately 23,042 and 23,284. This follows a closing value of 23,151.10 on Friday, March 13 — a drop of 488.05 points or 2.06% from the prior session’s close of 23,639.15. The index opened lower at 23,116.10 before fluctuating in a broad band.

The previous Friday’s session marked one of the more pronounced single-day losses in recent months, with the Nifty shedding over 2% amid broader market pressures. Trading volume remained elevated, with reports indicating over 1.18 crore shares changing hands in early activity on Monday, reflecting continued investor caution.

Market participants pointed to escalating concerns over the U.S.-Iran conflict as a primary driver behind the recent sell-off. Reports of heightened tensions in the Middle East have pushed Brent crude oil prices above $100 per barrel in recent sessions, raising fears of inflationary pressures and potential disruptions to global energy supplies. Higher oil costs directly impact India’s import bill, given the country’s heavy reliance on foreign crude, and contribute to broader risk aversion in emerging markets.

“The market is grappling with external shocks,” said one Mumbai-based analyst tracking equity indices. “Geopolitical risks combined with elevated commodity prices are weighing on sentiment, particularly in oil-sensitive sectors.”

Broader indices mirrored the Nifty’s choppy performance. The BSE Sensex traded with similar volatility, fluctuating around the 74,500 level after opening mixed. Sectoral trends showed selective buying in pockets such as pharmaceuticals and metals, which provided some support, while oil and gas, realty, and certain financial stocks faced pressure.

On Friday’s close, only a handful of Nifty constituents ended in positive territory, with heavyweights like Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank, and Infosys contributing significantly to the overall decline due to their large weightings in the index. The Nifty’s P/E ratio hovered near 20.3, while the price-to-book stood at about 3.15, levels that some strategists view as offering moderate valuation cushion after the recent correction.

Looking at recent trends, the Nifty has retreated notably from its 52-week high of 26,373.20 (reached earlier in January 2026). The index has lost around 9-10% over the past month in some tracking periods, though it remains up modestly — roughly 3% — on a year-over-year basis from March 2025 levels. The 52-week low stands at 21,743.65.

Investors are closely monitoring upcoming economic data releases, including any updates on inflation, industrial output, and global central bank cues. The Reserve Bank of India’s stance on monetary policy remains in focus, especially if sustained high oil prices feed into domestic CPI readings.

Technical analysts noted that the Nifty has broken below certain key support levels in recent sessions, forming bearish candlestick patterns on daily charts. Some observers have described the move as entering a “deep corrective phase,” with potential further downside toward 22,700-23,000 if selling pressure persists. Conversely, a sustained move above 23,300 could signal short-term stabilization.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have shown net selling in recent weeks, adding to domestic market headwinds, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) have provided some counterbalancing buying.

Market breadth remained tilted toward declines in early Monday trade, with more stocks falling than advancing in the broader universe. Option chain data for near-term expiries highlighted put interest around the 23,000-23,200 strikes, indicating hedging activity.

Despite the near-term caution, long-term optimism persists among some market watchers

Investors first lost their appetite for quick service restaurants (QSR) stocks and now the sector risks running out of fuel. The Iran-Israel/US war has brought the food sector into a quagmire with shares of Sapphire Foods India, Jubilant Foodworks, Westlife Foodworld, Devyani International and Restaurant Brands Asia declining up to 15%, this week.

While the troubles facing these stocks are not new, the ongoing crisis has only deepened the losses. Sapphire Foods India, which operates KFC and Pizza Hut outlets, has seen its share price fall 12% this week. Devyani International, set to merge with Sapphire to create a single Yum franchise in India, slipped 4% on Friday. Jubilant FoodWorks, the operator of Domino’s and Dunkin’, has lost about 4% over the same period, while shares of Westlife Foodworld (McDonald’s franchisee) have declined 4%. Meanwhile, Restaurant Brands Asia (RBA) has fallen around 3% week-on-week.

The impact on restaurants across the country is already visible as media reports suggest rapid closures. Though these QSR companies have not flagged any likely disruption in operations, so far, brokerage firm JM financial has warned that a prolonged crisis in LPG availability could pose operational challenges for those QSRs where cooking processes depend heavily on gas-based kitchens.

The risk has surfaced as the conflict in West Asia begins to disrupt fuel supplies, pushing restaurants to reassess operations, cooking methods and menu strategies, JM noted.

“For QSR operators such as Westlife FoodWorld, Devyani International, Sapphire Foods India and RBA (Restaurant Brands Asia), the immediate concern pertains to higher kitchen operating costs and the probability of store closures in certain micro markets, which could temporarily affect outlet operations and restaurant-level margins,” the brokerage note added.

However, ElaraCapital sees lesser impact of the LPG shortage on QSR chains compared to non-QSR based restaurants, citing that the QSR companies have minimal dependency on LPG and rely on electric ovens and fryers. In fact, it sees them benefitting due to a consumer substitution effect from LPG-dependent cuisine to QSR format.
Also read: As Iran Israel crisis clouds outlook for tile makers, what is next for Cera, Kajaria, Somany after 26% slide?

Weak investor appetite

Restaurant Brands Asia, which operates Burger King remains the only exception. Its shares have managed positive returns of 2% over a one-year period, nearly matching Nifty’s 3% returns in the same period.

Sapphire Foods shares are down 47% in the past 12 months, Westlife Food 36% lower while Jubilant and Devyani have plunged, 27% each.

The institutional appetite for QSR stocks has also taken a beating with Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) offloading stakes.

FII holding in Sapphire Foods fell 210 bps sequentially in the December quarter while recording a 90 bps decline in Westlife Food in same quarter. In Jubilant and Devyani, foreign stakes dropped by 150 bps and 80 bps, respectively.

The worst happened with Restaurant Brands Asia, where holding declined by 380 bps.

Also read: ONGC, Oil India shares outperform sector with double-digit gains in 2026. Will Iran-Israel crisis fuel more upside?

Earnings snapshot

Earnings cut a patchy picture with Devyani widening its consolidated December quarter losses to 10 crore though revenue growth stood 12% YoY to Rs 1,453 crore. The Q3 net profit for Westlife Food fell 86% though total revenue saw a 3% YoY uptick.

Jubilant reported strong set of numbers with profit after tax (PAT) growing 65% to Rs 71 crore while topline rising by 13%. As for RBA, YoY losses narrowed to Rs 7 crore versus 19 crore in Q3FY25 riding on 18% jump in revenue.

What should investors do?

Sudeep Shah, Vice President & Head of Technical and Derivative Research Desk at SBI Securities said QSR stocks have been under significant pressure over the past year and the recent weakness cannot be attributed solely to the LPG shortage concerns. Technically, most of these stocks were already in well-established downtrends, he said, adding that the current crisis has merely aggravated existing weakness rather than causing it.

“Sapphire Foods has been declining since October 2025 and continues to trade well below its key moving averages. Westlife Foodworld is exhibiting a classic lower-high, lower-low structure, with the MACD line positioned below the zero line, indicating sustained bearish momentum. Jubilant FoodWorks remains in a strong downtrend with the RSI languishing around 22, reflecting oversold but weak sentiment. Meanwhile, Devyani International has slipped close to its IPO levels,” Shah said.

His advice to investors is to avoid bottom-fishing and wait for clear signs of fundamental and technical improvement before considering exposure to the QSR space.

Also read: As crude oil price breaches $100 mark, Systematix recommends RIL, a potential multibagger and 4 more stocks to buy

(Disclaimer: The recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)

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Mumbai: Indian equities are tipped to extend their losses early this week and the rupee will likely be on a sliding gradient, as Donald Trump’s weekend war rhetoric is seen keeping oil prices elevated and investor mood skittish on Dalal Street. The US President has sought more strikes against Iran and rallied traditional allies to force open an energy supply choke point.

Last week, the Sensex and Nifty ended at their lowest since April 2025, stretching their losses to 8-9% since the war began two weeks ago. Although equities appear oversold after their recent rout, oil prices above $100 a barrel are making investors reluctant to deploy cash in a hurry.

With Trump theoretically expanding the scope of attacks by threatening further strikes on Iran’s Kharg Island – home to the country’s oil exports infrastructure – the market is resigning itself to the fact that the conflict between US-Israel and Iran may not end soon. Tehran has pledged to respond even as Washington has urged the UK to send battleships to the region to force open the Strait of Hormuz.

“It is not the fog of war, but a fog of words that has led to elevated uncertainty around how this war will play out,” said Barclays’ economists, including Christian Keller, in a client note over the weekend. “In turn, this has led to violent swings in the price of oil and financial assets.”

Crude Risks

The rupee, meanwhile, has slid 1.6% since the start of the war despite central bank interventions, and the currency closed at a record low of 92.48 to the dollar on Friday.
Market participants expect the rupee – the worst performing Asian monetary unit in 2025 and on track to feature in the lower half of the leader board this quarter as well – to drift lower if crude oil prices leap past $100 a barrel.
“The risk of crude is going to stay high, and the outlook for the rupee remains cautious as it could create macroeconomic challenges for the Indian economy,” said Jateen Trivedi, VP research analyst, currency, at LKP Securities. “In the near term, the rupee is expected to trade within a range of 91.90-92.80, with crude price movements and dollar index trends remaining the key drivers.”
A Reuters report said Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude to trend above $100 in March and around $85 in April, before a gradual easing in supplies – unless the war is protracted – helps the gauge to settle at low 70s to the dollar later in the year. Brent oil surged to a touching distance of $120 a barrel last Monday, a level not seen since the immediate aftermath of the Ukraine invasion by Russia.

The surge in crude oil prices and the resultant slide in the rupee have kept investors on the sidelines, especially amid expectations the central bank interventions might do little to stem the rupee’s rout. Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have continued to pare holdings in Indian equities through March. On March 13, they sold shares worth ₹10,716 crore.

Shares of Pigeon brand owner Stove Kraft, Prestige brand owner TTK Prestige, Crompton appliance maker Butterfly Gandhimathi Appliances and others will tumbled up to 5% on Monday even as cooking gas supply concerns due to the war in West Asia have boosted sales of induction cooktops and electric kettles.

The drop in stock prices comes as investors rushed to book profits following a massive rally last week. Further, hopes of possible talks between US and Iran also eased LPG gas fears slightly. US President Donald Trump said Sunday that the United States was in discussions with Iran as the war enters its third week but that Tehran was not ready for a deal to end it.

“Yes, we’re talking to them,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One, without detailing the nature of such talks, when asked if there was any diplomacy under way to end a conflict that has spread across the Middle East and roiled global markets. Iran, on the other hand, has denied the claims.

LPG supply constraint is significant for India as as it is the world’s second-largest LPG importer. Several restaurants across the country have run out of gas supplies or switched to simpler menu items that require little to no cooking gas.

For induction cooktop players, this means more sales. Tata Group’s Croma said it has observed a threefold jump in demand for induction cooktops over the past few days, The Economic Times reported earlier. Further, Stove Kraft said its average weekly online sales have jumped four times.

“At Croma, we have observed a sharp and immediate uptick in demand for induction cooktops over the past few days. Our average daily run rate has surged significantly,” Infiniti Retail Ltd (Croma) CEO & MD Shibashish Roy said.
India is also grappling with a sharp LPG shortage as the ongoing war between Iran and the US-Israel alliance has led to the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy supply chokepoints. Tanker movement through the route has been severely disrupted as Iran continues to target vessels attempting to pass through the corridor. The situation has forced several global suppliers to declare force majeure on gas shipments.Despite assurances from US President Donald Trump, the strait effectively remains closed to traffic. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has warned that oil shipments from the Gulf will be blocked unless US and Israeli attacks stop.

Also Read | Mutual fund portfolio down Rs 1.5 lakh in 12 days. Is the decline due to regular plans or market volatility?

Gas crisis in India

The supply disruption linked to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed up gas prices in India. Domestic cooking gas prices have increased by Rs 60 per cylinder, while commercial LPG prices have risen by Rs 114.5.

Shortages have been reported in multiple cities including Mumbai and Bengaluru. In some areas, restaurants have warned they may have to shut operations because of inadequate fuel supplies.

Meanwhile, the Indian Railway Catering and Tourism Corporation (IRCTC) has asked all its licensees to shift to alternate cooking methods such as microwave ovens and electric induction systems at railway food centres.

Sensex, Nifty today: Catch all the LIVE stock market action here

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

Amid heightened global volatility triggered by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a sharp surge in crude oil prices, equity markets across the world have witnessed sharp swings in recent weeks.

While the uncertain macro environment has kept investors on edge, corrections across sectors have also opened up selective opportunities. In an interaction with ETMarkets Smart Talk, Devang Mehta, Deputy Managing Director & CIO – Equity NDPMS at Spark Capital Private Wealth, said that domestic-focused sectors such as power, infrastructure, and auto are beginning to look attractive after the recent market correction.

He also advised investors to stay disciplined, continue their SIPs, and focus on long-term investing rather than reacting to short-term volatility. Edited Excerpts –

Q) Thanks for taking the time out. March has been an absolute roller coaster for equity markets not just for India but across the globe. How are you reading into markets – more pain ahead?

A) The equity markets in March 2026 have indeed experienced extreme volatility, primarily driven by the escalation of a U.S.-Israel war with Iran and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

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This conflict has triggered a “risk-off” environment, characterized by sharp declines in global indices and a surge in crude oil prices past $100–$110 per barrel and foreign outflows as well
The conflict has disrupted roughly 20% of global oil supplies transiting the Strait of Hormuz, raising fears that oil could be on the boil. If the war continues, the collateral and economic damage could lead to more pain.
Though its next to impossible to gauge the intensity and duration of the war, long term investors have to adjust to the volatility and uncertainty.
Indian market has now been going through price correction, valuation correction and time correction since last 19 months and data typically shows that after underperformance and with earnings cycle positively coming back, one needs to stay focused and not panic.

Q) IT sector seems to be the worst hit thanks to the AI commentary but with geopolitical tensions rising other sectors have also started to see some rub-off effect. Any sector(s) that are now available at attractive lev

A) IT has particularly been a hugely underperforming sector and it has its own reasons. But as markets were settling down in February, post a decent budget, good earnings season and a bit of clarity about US tariffs, unfortunately, the Iran & US – Israel war related news took prominence and had its impact on global and our own markets.

With all the newsflow around and India’s sensitivity for the oil and gas dependence, most of our sectors and companies in the indices and even broader markets went through a severe correction.

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Sectors which are domestic centric and have not much of a global exposure should ideally be sought after in the first phase.

Capex oriented sectors like power, HVDC, engineering, capital goods, infrastructure and even discretionary consumption related sectors like auto and auto components have seen meaningful corrections.

Some accumulation here would be a good start to construction of new portfolios. Niche pharmaceuticals and wellness including hospital businesses and few BFSI related companies also qualify for long term investment.

Q) What could be the good, bad and ugly for Indian markets in the near term?

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A) Good – Following a sluggish 2025, India Inc. is expected to see around15% YoY earnings rebound over FY26–FY27.

With India’s valuation premium over other emerging markets compressing, expectations are high for a return of foreign capital in 2026.

Strong SIP-led inflows and retail participation continue to cushion the market against foreign investor volatility.

Headline CPI inflation printed at a benign 2.75% in January 2026, though a new series makes historical comparison difficult.

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Recent pro-growth measures, including income tax & GST rate cuts and interest rate reductions (125 bps cut to 5.25% as of early 2026), aim to stimulate consumption.

Bad – The Indian Rupee recently sank to all-time lows, breaching ₹92.35 against the US Dollar, which threatens to increase “imported inflation”. Pending trade deals with the US is also a overhang. Foreign Institutional Investors have been aggressive net sellers, offloading over ₹32,800 crore in the first week of March 2026 alone.

The Ugly – A major escalation in the Middle East, such as a shutdown of the Hormuz Strait, could push oil prices to unsustainable levels, causing a severe, sudden shock to the Indian economy. If global uncertainty prompts sustained record-breaking selling by foreign institutional investors, market multiples could face intense downward pressure.

Q) FPIs have been net sellers in 2025, and the story continues in 2026 may be for a different reason now. The story seems to be changing around the FDI route as India opens channels for Chinese investment to land into several industries. What are your views?

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A) FPIs have been massive net sellers in India during 2025, driven by high valuation concerns, US tariff anxieties, and a “Sell India, Buy China” trend. The record outflows in 2025 were driven by a “risk-off” sentiment due to high Indian valuations compared to its peers, weak corporate earnings, and global macro headwinds like rising US bond yields.

As of early 2026, FPIs remain cautious. While they briefly turned net buyers in February 2026 following a US-India trade deal, this reversed in March due to escalating Middle East conflicts and a weakening rupee.

India has begun relaxing FDI norms for neighboring countries, including a 60-day fast-track approval for projects, to attract manufacturing investment. This represents a shift from the 2020 restrictions, allowing Chinese capital to enter critical industries.

This policy change aims to bridge the investment gap and boost local manufacturing, even as India manages a massive trade deficit with China. It highlights a strategic move to balance security concerns with economic growth necessities.

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The most striking change is the relaxation of Press Note 3 (2020), which had virtually frozen Chinese investment since the Galwan clash. The story is changing from a broad “avoid China” stance to a calibrated, strategic engagement.

Stock markets have already started pricing this in, with Electronic Manufacturing Services (EMS) and renewable energy stocks surging on the news.

Q) Rupee seems to be hitting fresh lows every week – where do you see the currency headed and how will it impact Indian markets/economy?

A) The Indian Rupee (INR) has indeed been hitting fresh record lows against the US Dollar (USD), falling past the 92 level and touching around 92.35–92.37. This weakness is driven by a combination of high geopolitical tension, rising crude oil prices, and significant foreign capital outflows.

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The rupee is expected to trade in a broad 90–93 range as long as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East persist and oil prices remain high.

As a major importer of crude oil, electronics, and machinery, a weaker rupee makes these inputs significantly costlier. This feeds directly into domestic inflation, raising costs for petrol, diesel, and electronics.

The cost of importing goods is outpacing export growth, widening the current account deficit (CAD). Indian companies with large unhedged foreign currency loans face higher repayment burdens, squeezing their margins.

Q) Will Crude@$100/bbl and above hurt Indian markets and macros? We have been making an investment pitch to the world about our macro stability which could be challenged in the near future. What are your views?

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A) Crude oil prices sustained above $100/bbl pose significant risks to India’s macroeconomic stability by widening the current account deficit (CAD), increasing inflation (by 35–40 bps), and potentially reducing FY27 GDP growth to around 6%.

While this challenges the investment narrative of macro stability and threatens equity market pressure, strong foreign exchange reserves (around $720 billion) and potential for a shorter-duration shock may mitigate long-term damage.

With $720 billion in forex reserves and lower global demand, this shock may be acute rather than prolonged, preventing a structural break.

While a short-term spike causes volatility, a sustained, long-term trend above $100 requires a rebalancing of portfolios towards defensives. The “macro stability” pitch is challenged, but not entirely broken unless the conflict causing the price rise persists for over a long duration.

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Q) How should investors recalibrate their portfolio amid rise in volatility? Any theme/asset classes which they should go overweight or underweight on? (Assuming the person is between 30-40 years)

A) For investors aged 30-40, high volatility is an opportunity to accumulate units at lower costs rather than a reason to panic. With a long-term horizon, the goal is to maintain a high growth, yet resilient portfolio that can withstand short-term shocks.

Continue all Systematic Investment Plans (SIPs). Volatility allows SIPs to purchase a higher number of units at a lower cost, which leads to superior, long-term wealth creation.

Asset allocation according to one’s risk profile, liquidity requirements and life goals are the most critical factors. You don’t lose when markets panic, you lose when you panic.

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Q) Your advise to investors of things which one must avoid doing in the current environment? We have already seen drop in SIP flows by over 3% on a MoM basis.

A) Monthly inflows hit ₹29,845 crore, down 4% from January’s ₹31,002 crore, ending a two-month streak above ₹30,000 crore. The moderation ties to the shorter month, with some end-of-month SIPs shifting to early March.

Market corrections often trigger fear, leading to panic selling, which turns paper losses into permanent losses. In all the market dips, investors who stayed invested recovered their losses, while those who panicked and sold missed the subsequent recovery, and saw a significant, realized drop in their portfolio.

Waiting for a “low point” to invest usually leads to missing out on the best days of the market. Missing the 10 best trading days in a decade can cut your long-term returns by HALF. Historically in Nifty you could have lost 82% of your wealth by sitting out just 2% of the trading days.

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Trying to time the market is a losing strategy because nobody can consistently predict tops and bottoms. Think in terms of years, not months. Volatility is temporary; long-term growth is the target.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)