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BlackRock CEO Larry Fink warns $150 oil price could spark global recession

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BlackRock CEO Larry Fink warns $150 oil price could spark global recession

The head of the world’s largest asset manager has warned that a sustained surge in oil prices to $150 a barrel could push the global economy into a sharp recession, as geopolitical tensions continue to destabilise energy markets.

Larry Fink, chief executive of BlackRock, said the trajectory of the Middle East conflict, particularly the role of Iran, will determine whether the world faces a temporary disruption or a prolonged economic shock.

“If oil prices stay elevated and Iran remains a threat, that will have profound implications,” he said, warning that a scenario of sustained high prices could lead to “a probably stark and steep recession”.

Fink outlined two contrasting outcomes for global markets.

In a more optimistic scenario, a resolution to the conflict and a stabilisation of relations could see oil prices fall back below pre-war levels, easing inflationary pressures and supporting growth.

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However, in the more pessimistic case, prolonged instability could drive oil prices above $100, and potentially towards $150, for several years. That would significantly increase costs for businesses and consumers, acting as a drag on economic activity worldwide.

Energy prices have already surged in recent weeks, with Brent crude climbing sharply amid disruptions to supply routes and heightened uncertainty over future production.

Fink emphasised that rising energy prices disproportionately affect lower-income households, describing them as a “very regressive tax”.

“Higher energy costs hit the poorest the hardest,” he said, noting that sustained increases would not only dampen consumer spending but also exacerbate inequality.

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The warning comes as governments, including the UK, face growing pressure to shield households and businesses from rising costs, even as public finances remain stretched.

The BlackRock chief urged policymakers to adopt a pragmatic approach to energy policy, combining existing fossil fuel resources with accelerated investment in renewables.

“Use what you have, unquestionably, but also aggressively move towards alternative sources,” he said.

He argued that high oil prices could ultimately accelerate the global transition to cleaner energy, as countries seek to reduce dependence on volatile fossil fuel markets. Solar and wind power, in particular, could see rapid expansion if energy costs remain elevated.

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However, he warned that progress has been uneven. While China is investing heavily in solar and nuclear capacity, Europe risks falling behind due to slow implementation and regulatory inertia.

Despite market volatility, Fink dismissed comparisons with the 2007–08 financial crisis, insisting that today’s financial system is far more resilient.

“I don’t see any similarities at all, zero,” he said, arguing that while some stress is emerging in areas such as private credit funds, it represents a small portion of the overall market.

Fink also addressed concerns about a potential bubble in artificial intelligence, rejecting the idea that investment in the sector is overinflated.

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“I do not believe we have a bubble at all,” he said, although he acknowledged that some companies may fail as the technology evolves.

He argued that AI is part of a broader race for technological dominance, particularly between the US and China, and that continued investment is essential to remain competitive.

At the same time, he highlighted the transformative impact AI is likely to have on the labour market. While some traditional office roles may decline, he expects significant job creation in skilled trades.

“There will be enormous demand for electricians, welders and plumbers,” he said, suggesting that societies will need to rethink their approach to education and career pathways.

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With BlackRock overseeing around $14 trillion in assets, Fink’s outlook carries significant weight among policymakers and investors.

His warning underscores the fragile state of the global economy, where energy markets, geopolitical tensions and technological change are converging to reshape growth prospects.

For now, the key variable remains oil. If prices continue to climb towards the $150 threshold, the risk of recession will rise sharply, forcing governments and central banks to navigate an increasingly complex and volatile economic environment.


Jamie Young

Jamie Young

Jamie is Senior Reporter at Business Matters, bringing over a decade of experience in UK SME business reporting.
Jamie holds a degree in Business Administration and regularly participates in industry conferences and workshops.

When not reporting on the latest business developments, Jamie is passionate about mentoring up-and-coming journalists and entrepreneurs to inspire the next generation of business leaders.

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Oil claws back losses as Strait of Hormuz is closed again

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Oil claws back losses as Strait of Hormuz is closed again
SINGAPORE: Oil prices rebounded more than 6% on Monday after tumbling more than 9% on Friday on news the Strait of Hormuz is closed again after both the U.S. and Iran said the other party had violated their ceasefire deal by attacking ships over the weekend.

Brent crude futures jumped $6.11, or ‌6.76%, to $96.49 ⁠a barrel ⁠by 2327 GMT and U.S. West Texas Intermediate was at $90.38 a barrel, up $6.53, or 7.79%.

The U.S. military had seized an Iranian cargo ship that tried to run its blockade, U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday, while Iran said it would not participate in a second round of peace talks despite Trump’s threat of renewed airstrikes.

The United States has ⁠maintained a ‌blockade of Iranian ports, while Iran has lifted and then reimposed its own blockade of the Strait, which handled roughly ⁠one-fifth of the world’s oil supply before the war began almost two months ago.

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“Oil markets continue to gyrate in response to oscillating social media posts by the U.S. and Iran, rather than the realities on the ground which remain challenging for oil flows to resume in a rapid fashion,” Saul Kavonic, MST Marquee’s head of research, said.


Both contracts posted on Friday their largest daily ‌declines since April 18 after Iran said passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz was open for the remaining ceasefire period and ⁠Trump said Iran had agreed to never close the strait again.
“The announcement of the Strait opening proved premature,” Kavonic said. “Ship owners will be twice shy about heading towards the Strait again without receiving much more confidence that any announced passage is real.”

More than 20 ships passed the strait on Saturday carrying oil, liquefied petroleum gas, metals and fertilizers, Kpler data showed, the highest number of vessels crossing the waterway since March 1.

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Global Market Today: Oil jumps, stocks wobble as Mideast ceasefire hangs in the balance

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Global Market Today: Oil jumps, stocks wobble as Mideast ceasefire hangs in the balance
SINGAPORE: Oil prices jumped, the U.S. dollar lifted from lows and stock markets wobbled on Monday as rising tension in the Middle East kept shipping in and out of the Gulf to a bare minimum, though traders were holding out hope for a resolution.

The ceasefire in the Iran war, due to run until Tuesday, was in doubt after the U.S. seized an Iranian cargo ship and Tehran’s top military command vowed to retaliate.

Iran has re-imposed its de facto closure of the Strait of ‌Hormuz, though Kpler ⁠data showed ⁠that more than 20 vessels carrying oil products, metals, gas and fertiliser passed through it on Saturday, the busiest day for the chokepoint since March 1.

Brent crude futures jumped about 6% to $96 a barrel in early Asia trade. The dollar, which sold off sharply on Friday when the strait briefly opened, rose slightly.

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S&P 500 futures fell around 0.7%, a modest move considering the index notched a record closing high on Friday. Asia-Pacific markets were mixed, with Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 down 0.5% and Japan’s benchmark Nikkei up 0.7%.


Bond markets, which rallied on Friday, retreated.
“The headlines look bad; it looks like ⁠there’s disagreement … which ‌has led to a little bit of re-escalation,” said Damien Boey, portfolio strategist at Wilson Asset Management in Sydney. “But I think, ultimately, both sides want to be able to do a deal – that’s part ⁠of the reason why the market’s optimistic and not selling off too much.”

Iran rejected new peace talks with the U.S., its state news agency reported on Sunday, hours after U.S. President Donald Trump said he was sending envoys for talks in Pakistan and would launch new strikes on Iran unless it accepts his terms.

FOCUS ON HORMUZ
In forex news, the euro was down 0.1% at $1.1735 and the yen eased around 0.3% to 159 per dollar, while the Australian and New Zealand dollars fell slightly.

Bonds likewise partially retraced Friday moves, with benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, which had fallen 6.5 basis points on Friday, rising by 3.2 bps ‌to 4.276%.

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Investors sold fixed income assets through March in anticipation of higher oil prices driving inflation – something they have tempered a little in recent weeks.

“Our base case (AKA guess) is still resolution to the war. Trump is still focused on November midterm ⁠elections,” said Paul Chew, head of research at Singapore’s Phillip Securities in a note to clients.

Wall Street indexes touched record highs on Friday, supported by expectations of robust first-quarter earnings, the bulk of which come this week. China is expected to hold benchmark lending rates steady on Monday.

British inflation data, U.S. retail sales and European purchasing managers’ index figures are due later in the week, though much of markets’ focus will be on Gulf shipping.

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“The critical barometer of geopolitical risk has been distilled into one data point: The number of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz,” said Bob Savage, head of markets macro strategy at BNY.

“Peace talks matter, but the immediate focus is on oil and other supply shortages driving inflation.”

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National Australia Bank flags $503 million impairment hit on Mideast volatility

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National Australia Bank flags $503 million impairment hit on Mideast volatility


National Australia Bank flags $503 million impairment hit on Mideast volatility

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Omkara, Oaktree pay Rs 1,200 crore to buy GTL debt from Edelweiss

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Omkara, Oaktree pay Rs 1,200 crore to buy GTL debt from Edelweiss
Mumbai: Omkara Asset Reconstruction Company, along with global investor Oaktree Capital Management, has acquired the debt of GTL Infrastructure from Edelweiss Asset Reconstruction Company in a secondary market transaction, people familiar with the matter said.

The all-cash deal, valued at about ₹1,200 crore, involves a transfer of stressed debt between asset reconstruction platforms and investors. It was closed in March. The exposure dates back to 2018, when Edelweiss ARC, in partnership with Oaktree and other investors, had acquired nearly 90% of GTL Infra’s loans, then valued at around ₹4,000 crore.

The telecom tower company had defaulted on debt exceeding ₹11,000 crore, triggering multiple restructuring efforts over the years.

People familiar with the latest transaction said Edelweiss had put the exposure on the block as its fund lifecycle neared maturity, prompting a takeout by Omkara.

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“This is a 100% cash deal between ARCs. Edelweiss exited and we acquired the exposure,” an executive at one of the firms said on condition of anonymity.


Investors are betting on improved recovery prospects this time. “The underlying business is more or less stable now. The towers are operational, and that improves the chances of recovery,” the person said.
Omkara is understood to be targeting an exit over the next two years, either through asset sales or a negotiated settlement. “The idea is to close the account in about two years-through sale of assets or other recovery mechanisms,” the person added. Omkara and Edelweiss ARC spokespersons did not respond to requests for comment until press time Sunday.

In 2018, after a steep revenue and Ebitda decline following the exit of key clients including Aircel, RCom and Tata Teleservices, GTL Infrastructure sought to deleverage, with lenders assigning 79.34% of its ₹3,226-crore debt to Edelweiss ARC. The firm submitted multiple restructuring proposals from April 2018 onward, expecting a swift resolution, but lenders did not act on these plans and some retained their exposure.

In November 2022, the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) rejected a plea by Canara Bank to initiate insolvency proceedings, ruling that the company remained a viable going concern and did not meet the threshold for admission under the bankruptcy code.

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Market, rupee fortunes may prove fickle amid Iran flareup

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Market, rupee fortunes may prove fickle amid Iran flareup
Mumbai: Markets are set to face fresh turmoil on Monday, with Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz because its ports were being blockaded by the US, forcing oil prices back up, in sharp contrast to the optimism on Friday, when the key maritime channel had been opened up.

Stocks and the rupee are seen facing fresh challenges after having recouped losses and strengthened amid easing geopolitical tensions. Last week, the Sensex and Nifty gained up to 1.3%, while broader indices advanced further – the Nifty Midcap 150 rose 3.5% and Smallcap 250 was up 4.4%, extending gains for the second straight week. The rebound faces hurdles if tensions erupt again.

The rupee may open 30-35 paise weaker against the dollar. It closed at 92.93 per dollar on Friday, up 0.30% from the previous close. But traders expect it to slip below 93 due to higher oil prices, after some ships were fired upon as Iran closed the Strait. Satellite imagery late on Sunday showed ships at a standstill, after they had started moving two days before.

“On Friday, things had cooled down a bit after Iran opened the Strait but since then, there have been some volatilities, as a result of which, oil prices have increased,” said Alok Singh, head of treasury at CSB Bank. “It is now turning out to be a market driven by statements from the US and Iran. We should expect volatility to continue till there is clarity.”

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Belligerent statements by both sides are balanced by plans for renewed dialogue in Pakistan this week. Mediators and affected Gulf states are also keenly aware that the end of the two-week ceasefire is days away.

Screenshot 2026-04-20 060704Agencies

RBI may Help Rupee
“Based on the current news flow, markets on Monday are likely to react primarily to crude prices,” said Shrikant Chouhan, head of equity research, Kotak Securities. “If oil moves back toward $100 per barrel, the market may open near previous closing levels, and then shift focus toward domestic developments.”
When Iran announced on Friday that the Strait of Hormuz would be open as part of peace efforts, Brent crude plunged 9% to $90.38 a barrel, helping Wall Street benchmarks close at record highs later in the day. Before the US-Iran truce, prices were at around $110.
All eyes are on the diplomatic peace talks between the US and Iran, with the ceasefire deadline of April 22 fast approaching, said Siddhartha Khemka, head of research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. “Now that there has been a sharp rally over the past 10 trading sessions, there should be some consolidation,” he said.

Higher oil prices will push the rupee to open lower on Monday before the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) possibly steps in to prevent a sharp fall, traders said. RBI’s move to take dollar demand by oil companies out of the market by providing them a direct supply of the currency through State Bank of India may also prevent a sharp fall in the rupee.

If the war continues for a longer period and crude again goes back to $100-120 per barrel, it will be negative for the economy, and markets could see a worse reaction, said Mahesh Ojha, vice president, research, Kantilal Chhaganlal Securities. “Fourth quarter results from ICICI are marginally better than expected, while HDFC Bank posted a steady quarter, and this could act as a positive trigger on Monday,” he said. “If conditions turn worse, the banking heavyweights could offer support, while if sentiment improves, they could add further upside.”

Since the ceasefire announcement on April 8, the Sensex and Nifty have gained over 5%, while the Nifty Midcap 150 and Nifty Smallcap 250 advanced roughly 10%.

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The market seems well-positioned to extend its uptrend, rather than remain range-bound, said Dhupesh Dhameja, derivatives analyst at Samco Securities.

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WrestleMania 42 Night 2: Has Brock Lesnar Retired?

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WWE WrestleMania 42 Night 2 - Brock Lesnar

It seems Brock Lesnar has retired.

Following his loss to Oba Femi during the second night of WrestleMania 42, Lesnar left his gloves and wrestling boots in the ring, a typical sign of retirement that fans last saw when AJ Styles retired in January.

Brock Lesnar Leaves Gloves, Boots in the Ring

Lesnar stayed seated in the ring after the match, soon shocking fans in attendance and watching at home when he began to remove his gloves. Fans soon began to voice their disapproval, continuously chanting “No!” as he went.

A visibly emotional and crying Lesnar then began to remove his boots before leaving them, along with the gloves, at the center of the ring.

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Paul Heyman eventually entered the ring, and Lesnar made an “x” sign with his arms before the two shared a hug.

Lesnar waved to the crowd and bowed in gratitude before leaving the ring as chants of “Thank you, Lesnar” echoed throughout the arena.

Is This It for Lesnar?

If his actions in the ring truly meant that his match against Femi is his final match, Lesnar joins the list of recently-retired WWE legends.

It can be recalled that John Cena retired in December after tapping out to Gunther. AJ Styles likewise retired in January after a match with “The Career Killer.”

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Fan reaction online has been swift as many grappled with the idea that Lesnar his retired, with many expressing their gratitude to one of the greatest combat athletes WWE has ever seen.

One fan on X expressed shock by saying, “4 minutes 45 seconds for what could be Brock’s last match??”

“Brock hasn’t retired yet,” another fan said. “We will see on Raw when Gunther confronts him.”

One pointed out a sad truth for a generation of WWE fans by saying, “Lesnar, Styles, & Cena all announced their retirement in the span of four months.”

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Originally published on sportsworldnews.com

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National Australia Bank hikes credit provisions on Iran war; flags $961 mln charge

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National Australia Bank hikes credit provisions on Iran war; flags $961 mln charge

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CStone presents preclinical data on three ADC candidates at AACR

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CStone presents preclinical data on three ADC candidates at AACR

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Traders ready to put war behind, dial up the risk

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Traders ready to put war behind, dial up the risk
Credit investors are loading up on riskier debt, betting that Iran and the US can extend their truce, and leaving behind havens they’ve favoured since the war broke out in late February.

In the first half of April, investors bought a net $500 million of bonds in the lowest tier of investment grade, and sold $7.3 billion of the higher tiers, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. That helped BBB bonds perform comparatively better than higher-rated notes, pushing the gap between spreads for BBB and A corporates to the tightest since before the war.

There may be good reason for these slightly riskier bonds to be performing better: BBB rated companies have outperformed analysts’ average forecasts more than A companies have, according to a Bloomberg News analysis.

Buyers are hoping a more lasting peace in West Asia can be forged by negotiators, and that companies in the lower edges of investment grade can keep performing well.

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“There is some value in the BBB space and issuers there have been good stewards of the balance sheet and generally improving credit quality,” said Gene Tannuzzo, global head of fixed income at Columbia Threadneedle Investments.


Investors have also been snatching up junk bonds, although with a preference for the higher-rated end of the spectrum, implying that money managers still see risk ahead even as they grow moderately more hopeful. Overall spreads for junk bonds are at their tightest since the war began, averaging 2.72% as of Thursday’s close.

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Nifty has a bit of momentum, but faces resistance at 24,300-24,700

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Nifty has a bit of momentum, but faces resistance at 24,300-24,700
Technical signals suggest the recent rebound on Dalal Street is gathering traction, but conviction remains key. Analysts broadly see the market attempting to transition from a corrective phase to a more durable uptrend, supported by improving momentum and selective buying interest. However, they caution that the move is still at a critical juncture, with resistance zones likely to test the strength of the recovery.

ROHAN SHAH
TECHNICAL ANALYST, ASIT C MEHTA INVESTMENT

Where is Nifty headed this week?
Nifty staged a strong comeback this month after a prolonged four-month decline, supported by easing geopolitical tensions and lower crude prices. The index has approached a resistance band of 24,300–24,700, which aligns with multiple technical studies. However, sustained strength above this zone is essential for the continuation of the upward momentum, potentially paving the way toward 25,500. Inability to hold above this zone may trigger profit booking, dragging the index lower towards 23,500–23,200. Trading Strategy: Buy Nifty futures above 24,700 for an upside target of 25,500, maintaining a stop-loss below 24,250.

TOP STOCK BETS
Jubilant FoodWorks
Buy at CMP Rs 459 | Stop-loss Rs 420 | Target Rs 525
The stock shows early reversal signs, backed by one-year high volumes and a high-wave candle near a demand zone, indicating selling exhaustion. The Rs 420–440 zone is key support; RSI shows bullish divergence.
Maruti Suzuki India
Buy at CMP Rs 13,453 | Stop-loss Rs 12,500 | Target Rs 15,500

The stock has witnessed a strong rebound after confirming a bullish ABCD harmonic pattern. The formation of a cup-and-handle pattern alongside improving volumes signals accumulation. RSI holding above its breakout level suggests a positive bias.

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Nifty has a Bit of Momentum, but Faces Resistance at 24,300-24,700Agencies

AJIT MISHRA
SVP – RESEARCH, RELIGARE BROKING

Where is Nifty headed this week?
Nifty is now approaching key moving averages (100 and 200 DEMA) in the 24,600– 24,800 zone. Sustained strength above this band could open room for further upside towards 25,200. In case of profit booking or consolidation, the 23,700–24,000 zone is likely to provide strong support.

Trading Strategies: For the short term, traders may consider a “buy on dip” approach in the 24,150–24,250 range, with a stop-loss at 23,900 and potential targets of 24,800 and 25,200. Among sectoral themes, the Nifty Energy Index has witnessed a fresh breakout after spending more than one-anda-half years in a consolidation phase. Participants can consider playing this theme through an ETF, i.e., Mirae Asset Nifty Energy ETF. It is currently trading at Rs 39.11, and one can accumulate it in the Rs 37–40 zone with a stoploss at Rs 34 for a positional target of Rs 52.

TOP STOCK BETS
Federal Bank Buy. CMP Rs 293 | Stop-loss Rs 278 | Target Rs 325

Federal Bank is in a steady uptrend with higher highs and lows post-base formation. A strong breakout near the 200-DMA signals a sentiment shift; price holds above key averages, with RSI supporting continuation.

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JSW Energy
Buy. CMP Rs 538 | Stop-loss Rs 504 | Target Rs 598

JSW Energy is in a stage-2 uptrend, consolidating after a strong rally. The range-bound move near the 200-DMA suggests a healthy pause, with price now attempting an upward breakout supported by improving momentum.

RAJESH PALVIYA
HEAD OF TECHNICAL AND DERIVATIVES, AXIS SECURITIES

Where is Nifty headed this week?
Nifty is fast approaching 24,415—the upper boundary of the bearish gap etched on March 9. A conviction close above 24,500, however, could open the floodgates. The next logical pit stops are 24,762— the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the Feb March decline—and the psychologically significant 25,000 mark. A slip below the 24,000–23,900 support band would be a warning shot, potentially dragging the index back to retest its weekly low of 23,555. Traders on the long side would do well to respect this floor. The overall outlook remains positive, as the weekly RSI continues to stay above its reference line. This indicates that positive momentum is still intact and not yet exhausted.

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Trading Strategies: The recommended strategy for Nifty options for the April 28, 2026, expiry is a call spread, ideal for a moderately bullish market outlook. The trader buys one lot of the 24,400-strike Call option at a premium of Rs 260–240 and simultaneously sells one lot of the 24,700-strike Call option at a premium of Rs 130–150. This strategy limits both risk and reward, creating a defined range for outcomes. The break-even point is at 24,530, with a maximum potential loss of Rs 8,450 and a maximum profit of Rs 11,050.

TOP STOCK BETS
Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders
Buy at Rs 2,618, CMP Rs 2,620| Stop-loss Rs 2,550 | Target Rs 2,800-2,850

A breakout above Rs 2,430 signals a shift to a primary uptrend, with RSI strength confirming bullish momentum. Resistance lies at Rs 2,800–2,850; sustained strength could extend gains to Rs 3,000–3,050.

Polycab India
Buy at Rs 8,184, CMP Rs 8,188.50 | Stop-loss Rs 7,900 | Target Rs 8,600-8,900

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An uptrend supported by a rising trendline and a doublebottom near Rs 6,650 underpins strength. Resistance at Rs 8,700; a breakout could target Rs 9,000+. Maintain Rs 7,600 as a stop-loss; below this, risks a breakdown.

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