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Bull market or trading illusion? Nithin Kamath says India’s stock market data is sending mixed signals

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Bull market or trading illusion? Nithin Kamath says India's stock market data is sending mixed signals
Even as shares of listed brokerage firms continue to rally on expectations of sustained retail participation, Nithin Kamath says the underlying market data tells a far more complicated story. In a detailed post on Tuesday, the Zerodha founder said several headline indicators often associated with a bull market are not fully lining up, raising questions over whether India is actually in a broad-based equity boom or simply witnessing pockets of speculative activity.

“If you look at listed brokers, you’d probably think we are in a bull market, but the data shows something else,” Kamath wrote. According to him, cash market turnover is still below the peak levels seen in late 2024, suggesting that core delivery-based equity activity has not yet returned to previous highs despite the recovery in benchmark indices and strong momentum in broader market stocks.

Kamath also pointed to another unusual trend — net direct equity inflows have turned negative for the first time since FY19, indicating retail investors may be pulling back from directly buying stocks even as capital market-linked themes continue to attract attention.

Kamath believes one major driver is the continued surge in mutual fund participation. “Gross SIP flows are at a record Rs 32,000 crore,” he noted, referring to the steady stream of monthly investments into equity mutual funds that has become one of the biggest domestic support pillars for Indian equities.

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For brokerage firms, however, this does not automatically translate into higher income. Kamath said most major brokers, including Zerodha, offer direct mutual funds where they earn little or no distribution commission.


“But the major brokers offer direct mutual funds, so they don’t make anything, including us,” he wrote.
Instead, he said, a large part of revenue growth across the broking industry may be coming from leveraged and speculative trading activity. Kamath highlighted the rapid growth of margin trading funding, or MTF, across the industry.Zerodha’s own MTF book has grown from zero to around Rs 7,000 crore in just 18 months, he said, showing that appetite for leveraged bets remains strong despite volatile markets.

He also flagged a sharp difference in client behaviour across platforms. According to Kamath, brokerage income as a ratio of client float for most listed brokers is around 40% or higher, while Zerodha’s ratio remains below 9%.

That gap, he suggested, may indicate that clients on some platforms are trading much more aggressively relative to the money parked in their accounts.

Kamath reiterated Zerodha’s long-held approach of not pushing users toward excessive activity. “Our philosophy has always been to not push or induce customers to trade. In trading, for most people, fewer trades are always better. That means leaving a lot of revenue on the table.”

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Week’s Best: Early Retirement Is Often Unintended

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Week’s Best: Early Retirement Is Often Unintended

Many Americans dream of an early retirement, but for some, it is an unhappy circumstance forced on them. A new survey from Allianz Life found that 42% of Americans retire earlier than they anticipate, and the reasons are usually beyond their control. Only 21% of those who retired early said they did so because they had saved enough money. Others cited health issues or job loss as reasons.

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Goldman Is Priced Like a Tech Stock. Investors Can Find Better Deals Elsewhere.

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Goldman Is Priced Like a Tech Stock. Investors Can Find Better Deals Elsewhere.

Goldman Is Priced Like a Tech Stock. Investors Can Find Better Deals Elsewhere.

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Investors Flee Bitcoin ETFs as Crypto Continues to Crumble

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Investors Flee Bitcoin ETFs as Crypto Continues to Crumble

Investors Flee Bitcoin ETFs as Crypto Continues to Crumble

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Microsoft Stock Charts Look Vulnerable. Software Stocks Could Follow.

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Microsoft Stock Charts Look Vulnerable. Software Stocks Could Follow.

Microsoft Stock Charts Look Vulnerable. Software Stocks Could Follow.

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Cryptos Could Be Casualties of SpaceX IPO as Bitcoin Hits Lowest Price Since 2024

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Cryptos Could Be Casualties of SpaceX IPO as Bitcoin Hits Lowest Price Since 2024

Cryptos Could Be Casualties of SpaceX IPO as Bitcoin Hits Lowest Price Since 2024

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Coinbase Stock Is Struggling. Why Crypto Trading Could Be Slow to Recover.

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Coinbase Stock Is Struggling. Why Crypto Trading Could Be Slow to Recover.

Coinbase Stock Is Struggling. Why Crypto Trading Could Be Slow to Recover.

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Expert Says Nancy Guthrie Disappearance Could Proceed as No-Body Murder Case

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Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta Airport

TUCSON, Ariz. — Prosecutors could successfully pursue a homicide case in the disappearance of Nancy Guthrie even if her body is never recovered, according to a leading expert in “no-body” murder prosecutions.

Nancy Guthrie, the 84-year-old mother of NBC “Today” co-anchor Savannah Guthrie, vanished from her home in the Catalina Foothills area near Tucson on February 1, 2026. Authorities believe she was abducted, citing blood evidence on her porch matching her DNA and signs of a struggle. More than four months later, no body has been found, no arrests have been made, and the investigation remains active.

Tad DiBiase, a veteran prosecutor who has spent two decades educating law enforcement on no-body homicide cases, told journalist Brian Entin that the Guthrie case could potentially be tried without physical remains. DiBiase emphasized that while a body provides crucial forensic details, strong circumstantial evidence can suffice for conviction.

“It is always, always better to have a body, without a doubt,” DiBiase said. “Because even if you get remains, it tells you this person left these remains here. These remains are from this long ago. How did she die? Did she die of natural causes because of her medical issues?”

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He noted that recovering remains helps rule out alternative scenarios, such as the victim walking away or dying from natural causes unrelated to foul play. Nevertheless, DiBiase expressed confidence that a well-prepared case could overcome the absence of a body.

The expert also raised concerns about the investigation’s search efforts around Guthrie’s home. He suggested more thorough searches of the surrounding desert terrain could strengthen any future prosecution by eliminating possibilities like suicide, accidental death or the victim leaving voluntarily.

“When you go to trial, you want to be able to say to the jury, ‘Here’s all the searches we did, and we confirmed that there’s no way that she walked away on her own. There’s no way that she escaped. There’s no way that she [died by] suicide,’” DiBiase explained. “Any of those things. Because you don’t know that unless you’ve done a very thorough search.”

The case stands out as unusual even among no-body murders. DiBiase noted that most such cases involve domestic relationships or acquaintances, whereas Guthrie’s disappearance appears to be a stranger abduction of an elderly victim — a rarer and more challenging scenario.

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Pima County Sheriff Chris Nanos has maintained that the investigation is ongoing and an arrest is expected. He previously cited laboratory backlogs for delays in processing evidence, including DNA from the scene. The FBI has assisted in searches and digital analysis, with agents combing desert areas near the home.

Guthrie was last seen on January 31 after a family dinner. Her doorbell camera reportedly captured suspicious activity, and blood evidence on the porch indicated possible violence. A $1 million reward offered by the family for information leading to her safe return or the arrest of those responsible remains active.

Savannah Guthrie and other family members have made public appeals for information while asking for privacy as the investigation proceeds. The high-profile nature of the case has drawn national attention, with true crime enthusiasts and online sleuths offering theories, though authorities caution against speculation that could hinder progress.

DiBiase’s analysis comes as the case enters a critical phase more than 120 days after the disappearance. In no-body prosecutions, success often hinges on comprehensive circumstantial evidence — including witness statements, digital footprints, financial records and behavioral analysis of potential suspects.

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Prosecutors typically must prove beyond a reasonable doubt that the victim is dead and that the defendant caused the death. Historical cases have resulted in convictions based on patterns of behavior, motive, opportunity and forensic traces like blood or DNA even without a body.

The terrain around Guthrie’s home — rugged desert with vegetation and rocky areas — presents search challenges. Cadaver dogs have been used, but some efforts have been paused amid backlogs. Recent activity included investigators returning to the property and surrounding areas following new tips.

Human remains discovered nearby were later determined to be prehistoric and unrelated. Officials continue to process evidence, including potential video footage and DNA samples. No public persons of interest have been named, though multiple individuals were questioned early in the probe.

The case has spotlighted vulnerabilities of elderly residents in suburban areas and raised questions about home security. Guthrie’s medical conditions were known, adding urgency to concerns about her well-being if still alive, though investigators increasingly treat it as a homicide.

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Savannah Guthrie has returned to work while balancing family support. The emotional toll on the family remains evident in public statements pleading for answers. Community vigils and support have continued, with locals assisting in searches during early weeks.

Legal experts following the case note that while no-body prosecutions are possible, they require meticulous preparation. DiBiase’s expertise includes dozens of such cases, many resulting in convictions. His input underscores the importance of preserving evidence and pursuing all leads aggressively.

Pima County authorities and the FBI have not detailed specific suspects or timelines for charges. Sheriff Nanos has expressed confidence in eventual resolution, emphasizing that the case remains a priority.

As months pass, the focus shifts toward building a prosecutable case with available evidence. Digital forensics, neighbor interviews and analysis of potential ransom communications or vehicle sightings form key pillars. The family’s cooperation and public appeals have generated tips, though many require verification.

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The Guthrie disappearance serves as a reminder of the complexities in missing persons cases involving potential foul play. For families, the uncertainty compounds grief. For investigators, the pressure to deliver justice without a body tests resources and resolve.

DiBiase’s comments provide a measured perspective: while challenging, justice remains attainable. Continued searches and evidence processing could prove decisive. As the investigation advances, authorities urge anyone with information to contact the Pima County Sheriff’s Office or the FBI.

The nation continues watching for developments in this high-profile case. Whether Nancy Guthrie’s remains are eventually located or the case proceeds without them, the pursuit of answers persists for her family and the community affected by her sudden absence.

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Gold and Silver Prices Tumble on Interest Rate Outlook

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Ryan Dezember hedcut

Front-month gold futures, which hit $5318.40 a troy ounce in late January, dropped 3.1% Friday to bring their year-to-date return to just 0.3%.

June silver futures shed 6.6% Friday to cap a four-week losing streak. Silver is off 49% from its January peak and after starting the year as one of the hottest investments is now down 1.7% in 2026.

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Miura Co., Ltd. 2026 Q4 – Results – Earnings Call Presentation (OTCMKTS:MIURF) 2026-06-06

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OneWater Marine Inc. (ONEW) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

This article was written by

Seeking Alpha’s transcripts team is responsible for the development of all of our transcript-related projects. We currently publish thousands of quarterly earnings calls per quarter on our site and are continuing to grow and expand our coverage. The purpose of this profile is to allow us to share with our readers new transcript-related developments. Thanks, SA Transcripts Team

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Mitsui Chemicals, Inc. 2026 Q4 – Results – Earnings Call Presentation (OTCMKTS:MITUY) 2026-06-06

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OneWater Marine Inc. (ONEW) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

This article was written by

Seeking Alpha’s transcripts team is responsible for the development of all of our transcript-related projects. We currently publish thousands of quarterly earnings calls per quarter on our site and are continuing to grow and expand our coverage. The purpose of this profile is to allow us to share with our readers new transcript-related developments. Thanks, SA Transcripts Team

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