RIL bulls believe the worst of the O2C pressure is likely behind, the much-awaited Jio IPO is drawing closer, and Reliance’s integrated downstream positioning makes it better placed than most to benefit from a tightening refining and petrochemicals system.

Goldman Sachs, maintaining its Buy rating, raised its 12-month SOTP-based target to Rs 1,910, the highest among brokerages, after Q4 results. It continues to value the core refining and petrochemicals business at 8.0x FY27 EV/EBITDA, offline retail at 33.0x December 2027 EV/EBITDA, and the high-growth TMT business via DCF at a 10.5% WACC and 4% terminal growth rate.

In the weak O2C quarter, Goldman said refining underperformed as elevated crude premiums and logistics costs, freight and insurance, offset higher product cracks, while fuel marketing margins were pressured by under-recoveries. Petrochemicals were mixed, with naphtha cracking under pressure partially offset by stronger gas cracking.

“In refining, access to Russian and Venezuela crude should support realization,” Goldman noted, adding that naphtha cracking spreads have started recovering in April. Tighter polymer supply amid naphtha shortages, leading to Asian cracker shutdowns, and Middle East disruptions should support margins.

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Also Read | JPMorgan finds Reliance Industries share valuation comfortable but flags O2C as uncertain spot

“In a tightening system with feedstock shortages, integrated downstream companies are better positioned,” Goldman said, expecting sequential margin expansion into the June quarter. It noted that two-thirds of Reliance’s petrochemical feedstock remains relatively unimpacted by the disruptions.
On retail, Goldman flagged topline growth of approximately 14% year-on-year, adjusting for the RCPL demerger. led by grocery and fashion, while RCPL’s revenue doubled year-on-year. JioMart stood out sharply, with average daily orders up over 300% year-on-year and 29% quarter-on-quarter.

Jio IPO: A big trigger ahead?

Nomura, with a target of Rs 1,640, flagged what could be the single biggest near-term catalyst for the stock: reports suggesting Reliance is likely to file the DRHP for Jio’s IPO as early as May. Nomura said this “could serve as a key catalyst for Reliance as well as the telecom sector.” It cut its SOTP-based target, lowering its retail EV/EBITDA multiple to 30x from 35x on slower growth estimates, while keeping FY27 EBITDA broadly unchanged as higher O2C estimates offset marginally lower retail and telecom forecasts.

Ambit echoed the IPO theme, calling the expected Jio Platforms listing “a meaningful positive catalyst,” arguing it validates the company’s low-risk capex approach. It also pushed back on holding company discount concerns, noting that even post-listing, Reliance will retain strategic assets deeply intertwined with Jio, including data centers, fiber, and EPC services, while continuing to act as a high-credit-rating internal bank, using legacy energy cash flows to fund aggressive bets. On the risk of continued FII selling, Ambit was dismissive, saying recent global investor interactions suggest major India and Reliance underweights, which would actually negate the selling pressure.

Also Read | Reliance Jio IPO delayed? India’s largest public offer has some good news in May

CLSA, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan stay constructive

CLSA retained its Outperform rating with a target of Rs 1,800, cutting FY27-28 EPS estimates by 2% but calling the risk-reward attractive. It highlighted strong performance of yet-to-be-valued FMCG and media businesses, confidence in approaching commissioning of new energy capacity in solar and battery manufacturing, and rising momentum in hyper-local businesses as key positives. “Improvement in performance of retail and O2C over the coming quarters could be other triggers for the stock,” CLSA said.

Morgan Stanley, with a target of Rs 1,803, noted earnings were largely in line with Street estimates but EBITDA missed its own estimate by 3%, due to higher upstream oil operating costs. It flagged that Reliance is seeing some improvement in crude sourcing after a very tough March, when Hormuz-related disruptions drove freight rates up 10 to 15 times. It also pointed to 14% top-line growth in consumer retail, 29% quarter-on-quarter growth in quick commerce, and the start of new energy cell and module production.

Margin quality in energy, chemicals and retail needs to improve for consensus upgrades, the brokerage said.

JP Morgan, maintaining Overweight with a target of Rs 1,675, acknowledged the modeling difficulty around O2C given high variance in prices and costs, calling the Q4 miss “an example”, but said medium-term margins for Reliance’s commodity businesses should turn out better than earlier modeled, with a potentially material impact on earnings. It called relative valuations “comfortable.”

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)

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CEO & Director

Welcome, everyone, and thanks for joining Sinead and me to discuss Shell’s acquisition of ARC Resources. Today, we want to talk about the strategic logic behind the acquisition, why it makes sense now and what it means for our business and our investors. Yesterday, we published a presentation together with our press release and today, we will make some brief comments before we go into Q&A.

Let me start by saying that I’m really pleased that the Boards of both companies have unanimously supported the deal, which is expected to close in the second half of 2026 subject to regulatory approvals. We look forward to continuing to work with ARC’s management and Board as we move towards completion. ARC couldn’t be a better strategic fit for Shell. As we outlined at our Capital Markets Day, where we see value, we will take the opportunity to add high margin, low cost and lower carbon intensity production to our portfolio in areas where we have competitive advantages.

ARC delivers exactly that. It is one of the largest pure-play operators in Canada’s Montney basin with a substantial portfolio of Tier 1 undeveloped inventory, which are complementary to Shell’s assets. And importantly, it

The Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate on Wednesday when Fed Chair Jerome Powell will host what may be his final press conference as the leader of the central bank, with his term as chairman due to expire next month.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Fed panel responsible for interest rate moves, is widely expected to leave the benchmark federal funds rate unchanged at the current target range of 3.5% to 3.75% amid concerns about elevated inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, which has risen since the Iran war began.

Powell’s term as chairman is due to expire on May 15, although his term as a member of the Fed’s Board of Governors runs until Jan. 31, 2028. The FOMC’s next scheduled session after this week’s meeting isn’t until mid-June, after the conclusion of Powell’s term as chair.

While Powell indicated he was prepared to remain on as the Fed chair on a temporary basis pending the confirmation of his successor, that may be unnecessary after a path cleared for the confirmation of former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh after a controversial investigation of Powell was dropped – potentially allowing Warsh to begin his chairmanship by the June meeting.

GOP SENATOR DROPS OPPOSITION TO TRUMP FED CHAIR NOMINATION AFTER DOJ DECISION

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will host what’s expected to be his final post-FOMC meeting news conference Wednesday. (Nathan Howard/Reuters)

There was uncertainty surrounding whether the nomination of Powell’s successor would take place in advance of the Fed’s June meeting due to the Trump administration’s Justice Department investigating Powell’s testimony on the central bank’s costly renovation project, as the probe drew the ire of a key senator.

Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., who serves on the Senate Banking Committee that has authority over Warsh’s nomination, vowed to block his confirmation despite supporting his nomination due to his concerns that the administration was pursuing a “bogus” investigation that was undermining the central bank’s independence over monetary policy.

U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia Jeanine Pirro announced on Friday that she would close her office’s investigation into Powell’s Senate testimony on the Fed renovations, which have faced cost surges that the central bank has attributed to rising materials costs, asbestos mitigation and other unforeseen or higher-than-expected costs. Pirro said the Fed’s inspector general, Michael Horowitz, will take over the investigation.

Tillis said that the DOJ’s probe was a “serious threat to the Fed’s independence, and it needed to end before I could support Kevin Warsh’s confirmation,” adding that the inspector general probe is a “necessary and appropriate measure” that he’s confident will be “conducted thoroughly and professionally.”

WHO IS KEVIN WARSH, TRUMP’S PICK TO SUCCEED JEROME POWELL AS FED CHAIR?

Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., said the DOJ probe’s conclusion will allow him to support Warsh’s nomination. (Nathan Posner/Anadolu via Getty Images)

With the path opened for Warsh to be confirmed as chairman by the Senate in the near future, attention will shift to whether Powell intends to continue to serve as a member of the Fed’s Board of Governors after the end of his chairmanship. 

Although most leaders of the central bank have departed the Fed at the conclusion of their terms as chair, Powell hasn’t confirmed that he will follow that path and may remain as a governor.

At his press conference following the March FOMC meeting that left rates unchanged, Powell said that he had “no intention of leaving the board until the investigation is well and truly over with transparency and finality.”

“On the question of whether I will then continue to serve as governor after my term ends, and after the investigation is over, I have not made that decision yet, and I will make that decision based on what I think is best for the institution and for the people we serve,” Powell added. “I’m not going to have anymore to say on those issues, by the way.”

HOW DOES FED CHAIR NOMINEE KEVIN WARSH VIEW THE CENTRAL BANK’S INFLATION GOAL?

Former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, President Donald Trump’s nominee to be the next chair of the Federal Reserve, is sworn in before his confirmation hearing with the Senate Banking Committee on April 21, 2026. (Elizabeth Frantz/Reuters)

EY-Parthenon chief economist Gregory Daco said that while the DOJ dropped its investigation, he anticipates that Powell is “more likely than not to remain on the Board,” explaining that the “rationale is institutional continuity, not politics.”

Daco wrote that Warsh’s views of inflation outcomes and a potential productivity surge driven by artificial intelligence could be disinflationary, as well as his views about how the Federal Reserve system operates, could compel Powell to stay to “help preserve institutional continuity, anchor the existing communication approach, and provide a stabilizing counterweight during the transition.”

“Dropping the investigation reduces pressure but does not eliminate it. The Inspector General review keeps governance questions active, and Powell remaining on the Board would not preclude the possibility of the DOJ reopening its investigation if new information emerges,” Daco added. 

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“For now, the combination of a cleared confirmation path, a likely June transition, and a high probability of Powell remaining in place points to continuity in the policy framework, even as leadership evolves.”

By Anton Kharitonov

​Henry Hub is currently trading in a weak and relatively narrow range, with the front-month (May 2026, NGK26) holding around $2.50-2.57/MMBtu, with about $2.55 as the nearest short-term reference level. Over the past month the contract has lost roughly 15-20% from

Tech billionaire Elon Musk‘s legal battle against OpenAI kicked off with a bang on Tuesday, with his attorney alleging CEO Sam Altman “stole a charity” to build a massive, profit-driven empire.

In a federal courtroom in Oakland, California, Musk’s lawyer, Steven Molo, told jurors that OpenAI completely abandoned its founding mission to safely develop artificial intelligence for the benefit of humanity. 

Instead, Molo argued, OpenAI transformed the organization into a “profit-seeking juggernaut” because leaders were “interested in collecting riches for themselves.”

Elon Musk arrives at Dellums Federal Building in Oakland, California, Tuesday, April 28, 2026. (Jessica Christian/San Francisco Chronicle via Getty Images)

OPENAI’S NONPROFIT PARENT COMPANY SECURES $100B EQUITY STAKE WHILE RETAINING CONTROL OF AI GIANT

Musk, who co-founded the company in 2015, is seeking $150 billion in damages from OpenAI and its major investor, Microsoft, with the proceeds slated to go to OpenAI’s charitable arm. 

The Tesla and SpaceX founder is also demanding that OpenAI revert to a nonprofit that will “benefit humanity,” and that Altman and the president, Greg Brockman, be removed from leadership. 

Molo emphasized Musk’s foundational role, noting he provided roughly $38 million in initial funding and recruited top talent, saying, “Without Elon Musk, there would be no OpenAI.”

Attorney Steven Molo, representing Elon Musk, arrives at federal court in Oakland, California, on Tuesday, April 28, 2026. (David Paul Morris/Getty Images)

ALTMAN CALLS MUSK’S SPACE DATA CENTER PLANS ‘RIDICULOUS’ FOR CURRENT AI COMPUTING NEEDS

Lawyers representing the ChatGPT inventor are defending the company, claiming Musk’s lawsuit is fueled by jealousy over the company’s soaring $850 billion valuation. 

OpenAI is arguing Musk was aware of and supported the transition to a for-profit model in 2019, and only filed suit after he failed to take over as CEO and launched his own rival AI firm, xAI.

U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers directly addressed Musk’s recent fiery posts on X, where he dubbed his former partner “Scam Altman.”

Demonstrators protest outside the courthouse as jury selection begins in the lawsuit between Elon Musk and OpenAI on April 27, 2026, in Oakland, California. (Benjamin Fanjoy/Getty Images)

JUDGE STRUGGLES TO SEAT JURY IN ELON MUSK INVESTOR TRIAL AMID ‘HATE’ FOR TECH BILLIONAIRE: REPORT

The judge urged Musk to “try to control your propensity to use social media to make things work outside the courtroom,” prompting an agreement from the pair to minimize their online activity during the legal proceedings.

The trial, which is expected to feature explosive testimony from Musk, Altman and Microsoft chief Satya Nadella, could heavily impact OpenAI’s plans for a potential $1 trillion initial public offering (IPO).

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Jurors are expected to begin deliberating on liability by mid-May.