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Dalal Street Week Ahead: Weak technical setup to keep bulls under pressure

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Dalal Street Week Ahead: Weak technical setup to keep bulls under pressure
Nifty remained under sustained pressure through the week and ended in the red, extending the corrective phase for the fifth consecutive week. The index traded in a wide 658.60-point range with selling pressure intensifying after the 23,900–24,000 support zone was violated. Nifty eventually settled at 23,398.10, not far above the weekly low.
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Volatility also rose, with India VIX up 15.07% for the week to 12.29, reflecting increased risk perception. Nifty ended the week with a loss of 499.60 points (-2.09%).
The technical structure has deteriorated following the violation of the important 23,900–24,000 support zone. This area had provided support during the recent consolidation but will now be expected to act as resistance on any pullback. More importantly, Nifty has slipped below its 100-week moving average, currently placed at 24,401, and remains below the 50-week MA at 24,673.

This keeps the broader setup defensive. Unless the index manages to reclaim 23,900–24,000 on a closing basis, meaningful and sustainable upmoves are unlikely; rallies towards this zone are more likely to encounter selling pressure.

The coming week will be truncated, with Monday, September 14 being a trading holiday on account of Ganesh Chaturthi; trading will therefore resume on Tuesday. A positive but cautious start is expected as Nifty adjust to the global trade setup that transpired on Monday. The 23,600 and 23,850 levels are expected to act as resistance areas. Supports are likely to come in at 23,230 and 23,000.


The weekly RSI stands at 39.93 and remains below the neutral 50 mark. It is not yet oversold and remains neutral against the price. The weekly MACD is bullish and above the signal line, but sits on the verge of a negative crossover as indicated by a narrowing Histogram. The latest weekly candle is distinctly bearish with a relatively large real body and a close in the lower part of the week’s range.
Pattern analysis shows Nifty continuing to trade within the broader range, but it has now moved closer to the lower half of this structure. The more immediate concern is the loss of the 23,900–24,000 support levels. The lower Bollinger Band is placed at 23,286, almost coinciding with the week’s low of 23,231, making this region an important near-term technical reference. Therefore, while intermittent technical rebounds cannot be ruled out after five consecutive weeks of decline, they should not be interpreted as a trend reversal unless Nifty first recaptures 23,900–24,000 and subsequently begins moving back above its key weekly averages.The approach for the coming week should remain defensive and selective. With Nifty having broken an important support zone and volatility rising, fresh buying should be highly selective and preferably restricted to stocks displaying strong relative strength. Nifty is oversold on daily charts; therefore, short positions should also not be pursued indiscriminately near supports after an extended five-week decline. Until 23,900–24,000 is reclaimed, the broader strategy should remain one of selling into strength, maintaining modest position sizes, and keeping strict risk controls while adopting a highly stock- specific approach.

In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against the CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), representing over 95% of the free-float market cap of allthe listed stocks.

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The Relative Rotation Graph (RRG) shows a somewhat lack of leadership in the markets. The Nifty Auto, Realty, and Media Indices are inside the leading quadrant. But barring the Auto Index, the other two are seen pairing on their relative momentum against the broader market.

The Nifty Pharma and Midcap Index are inside the weakening quadrant. Of the two, the Midcap 100 Index is showing improving relative momentum. The Nifty Financial Services Index has rolled into the lagging quadrant. The FMCG index and the Infrastructure Index also languish inside this quadrant.

The Energy, Infrastructure, and PSE Indices are also in the lagging quadrant, but they are showing good improvement in relative momentum against the broader Nifty 500 Index. The PSU Bank, IT, Services Sector, and BankNifty Indices are in the improving quadrant of the RRG.

Important Note: RRGTMchartsshow the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against the NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.

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Despite transatlantic ‘love fest’, EU charts third way in ties with US and China

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Despite transatlantic 'love fest', EU charts third way in ties with US and China
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken‘s first videoconference with European Union foreign ministers last month was so good humoured that some diplomats in Europe described it as a “love fest”.

But two senior envoys who attended said there was no direct response from the ministers gathered in Brussels when Blinken said: “We must push back on China together and show strength in unity.”

Their reticence is partly due to an unwillingness to commit to anything until Washington spells out more fully its China policy under President Joe Biden.

But the ministers were also cautious because the EU is looking for a strategic balance in relations with Beijing and Washington that ensures the bloc is not so closely allied with one of the world’s two big powers that it alienates the other.

The EU also hopes to have enough independence from Washington and Beijing to be able on its own to deepen ties with countries in the Indo-Pacific region such as India, Japan and Australia, EU officials said.

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In a new departure for the EU, they said, the bloc hopes to agree a plan next month that involves a larger and more assertive security presence in the Indo-Pacific, and more development aid, trade and diplomacy.
“We are charting a third way between Washington and Beijing,” an EU envoy in Asia said.Another EU official in Asia expressed concern that the United States had “a hawkish agenda against China, which is not our agenda”.

‘EUROPE ROADSHOW’
Last month’s videoconference was part of an attempt under Biden to rebuild alliances neglected by former U.S. President Donald Trump, who had an antagonistic relationship with both the EU and China.

The White House has embarked on a “Europe roadshow”, a senior U.S. official said, and is in daily contact with European governments about China’s rising power, in “a sustained effort for … a high degree of coordination and cooperation in a number of areas.”

In a sign that the U.S. push on China is having an impact, Germany plans to send a frigate in August to Asia and across the South China Sea, where Beijing has military outposts on artificial islands, senior government officials told Reuters.

The EU is also set to sanction four Chinese officials and one entity – with travel bans and asset freezes – on March 22 over human rights abuses in China’s Uighur Muslim minority, diplomats said.

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In a further sign, when Chinese President Xi Jinping chaired a video summit with central and eastern European countries last month, six EU member states – Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania and Slovenia – sent ministers rather than heads of state.

But there is still distrust in Brussels of Washington’s approach to China, even if attitudes in Europe have hardened against China over Beijing’s crackdown in Hong Kong, treatment of Uighur Muslims and the COVID-19 pandemic, first identified in China.

The United States says China is an authoritarian country that has embarked on a military modernisation that threatens the West, and has sought to weaken telecommunications equipment maker Huawei, which it sees as a national security threat.

The U.S.-led NATO military alliance is also beginning to focus on China, but Biden’s administration is still reviewing policy.

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“We ask what their China strategy is and they say they still don’t have one,” the EU official in Asia said.

French President Emmanuel Macron highlighted concerns in some EU states last month by saying that uniting against China would create “the highest possible” potential for conflict.

‘NO ALTERNATIVE’
But the EU is hungry for new trade and sees the Indo-Pacific as offering huge potential.

The EU has a trade deal with Japan and is negotiating one with Australia. Diplomats say countries in the Indo-Pacific want the EU to be more active in the region to keep trade free and open, and to ensure they are not left facing a straight choice between Beijing and Washington.

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France committed to closer ties with allies such as Australia and India with an Indo-Pacific strategy in 2018, followed by the Netherlands, which also has its own strategy, and Germany’s looser set of “guidelines”.

The EU strategy, if agreed, could involve putting more EU military experts in EU diplomatic missions in Asia, training coast guards and sending more EU military personnel to serve on Australian ships patrolling in the Indian Ocean, diplomats said.

It is unclear how much Germany, which has close business ties to China, will commit to any new strategy. German government officials say the EU cannot afford to alienate Beijing despite labelling China a “systemic rival” in 2019.

But French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian will travel to India in April to develop the EU’s Indo-Pacific strategy, and the EU aims to hold a summit with India this year.

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France, which has 1.8 million citizens in Pacific overseas territories, has about 4,000 troops in the region, plus navy ships and patrol boats.

“The Indo-Pacific is the cornerstone of Europe’s geopolitical path,” said a French diplomat. “There’s no alternative.”

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How Fair Value spotted Mercury General’s 76% rally in advance

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Trump says he would ’love’ to see a united Ireland

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BSE volumes ease after sharp rebound; CAS remains in focus: Nuvama

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BSE volumes ease after sharp rebound; CAS remains in focus: Nuvama
BSE’s trading activity eased after last week’s sharp rebound, though volumes remained well above the lows seen earlier this month, according to Nuvama Institutional Equities.

BSE’s average daily premium turnover value (ADPTV) stood at Rs 21,300 crore, down 6.6% week-on-week, compared with a 4.6% decline for the industry. The figure was above Nuvama’s remaining FY27 ADPTV estimate of Rs 18,600 crore.

Average daily contracts traded on BSE fell 8.5% week-on-week to 105 million, in line with the industry’s decline. The exchange recorded 98 million contracts in August 2026 and 150 million in July 2026.

Premium per contract rose 2.1% week-on-week to Rs 2,028, compared with Rs 1,897 in August and Rs 1,688 in July.

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BSE’s ADPTV market share stood at 34.3%, down 70.8 basis points week-on-week.


For FY27 to date, BSE’s ADPTV is around Rs 26,200 crore, while its ADPTV market share is around 35.2%. Its premium-to-notional turnover ratio is around 12.4 basis points, compared with 17.2 basis points for the industry.
Separately, the Closing Auction Session (CAS) remains under discussion, with Sebi chairman Tuhin Kanta Pandey saying the mechanism is “here to stay” while acknowledging that liquidity could remain a concern during the initial stages of implementation.ALSO READ: CAS here to stay, liquidity will pick up, says Sebi Chief

Pandey said several global jurisdictions, including the US, Japan and Hong Kong, experienced lower liquidity when CAS was initially introduced, with liquidity improving over time.

“The issue is can we just keep on waiting or we can have some temporary solutions to the issue,” Pandey said, referring to the liquidity concern.

Sebi is expected to issue a consultation paper proposing changes to the CAS framework.

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The regulator introduced CAS on August 3, after which market participants raised concerns over the impact of the new mechanism on liquidity and settlement prices.

Pandey, however, said several market participants had praised the implementation, particularly during events such as MSCI rebalancing.

“We have had several participants who have absolutely praised that implementation of CAS—that MSCI rebalancing and all have gone off very well. Technically the whole thing went off well,” he said.

Pandey also said a segment of the market was impacted by the way the settlement price was determined under the new mechanism.

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This article has been written by Kumar Gaurav, who is not a SEBI-registered Research Analyst or an Investment Adviser. Gaurav and his/her ‘relative(s)’ (as defined under Section 2(77) of the Companies Act, 2013) do not hold any financial interest in the companies mentioned in this article as of the date of publication. The views/recommendations mentioned in this article, wherever applicable, are those of the respective SEBI-registered Research Analyst/brokerage and have been reproduced/reported with due attribution. They should not be construed as the views or recommendations of The Economic Times Digital or the journalist. Readers are advised to consider the original research report and make their investment decisions based on their own assessment.

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Exploration Jurisdiction Power Score, Q2 2026: Reshuffle Outside Top Spot

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Exploration Jurisdiction Power Score, Q2 2026: Reshuffle Outside Top Spot

Risk Management, Arrow point scale speed medium status yellow speedometer icon Performance, pointer rating risk levels, meter, tachometer on yellow background.

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Our Exploration Jurisdiction Power Score (EJPS) indicates where exploration capital is flowing and where it is pulling back with a single, comparable score across the top 20 mining jurisdictions. Updated quarterly, the index combines three key indicators — drilling activity, initial resource announcements

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Trump says Iran probably responsible for attack on Saudi pipeline

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Bitcoin trades at $77,000 mark as profit-taking weighs on market; September FOMC meeting to act as next catalyst

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Bitcoin trades at $77,000 mark as profit-taking weighs on market; September FOMC meeting to act as next catalyst
Bitcoin trades near $77,000 mark after pullback from $78,000 mark with profit-taking and leverage flushes weighing on the market. The cryptocurrency was trading at $77,267 mark.

In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin was up 0.1% and Ethereum was up 2.1% to trade at $2,521 mark. Among the major altcoins, BNB, XRP, Solana, Tron, Dogecoin rallied upto 2% whereas Hyperliquid and Cardano were down respectively.

Also Read | Explained: Want to build a corpus with a Rs 15,000 monthly SIP? Know Rule 15*15*30The global crypto market capitalisation was up 0.4% to $2.73 trillion, according to Coingecko.

Nischal Shetty, Founder, WazirX said Ethereum is holding relatively firm near $2,450, market sentiment remains in Greed, and Bitcoin continues to trade above its 200-week moving average.

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“Markets are turning more cautious as sticky inflation gives the Fed less room to ease and has pushed expectations for a rate hike next week significantly higher.”
Technically, Bitcoin is at an important level. $76K is the immediate support, with $75.5K the level bulls really need to defend. Ethereum is holding the $2,400–$2,425 support band, while $2,500–$2,525 remains the immediate resistance, Shetty further said.Over the last week, Bitcoin was down 2.9% and Ethereum was up 2.8%. Among the major altcoins, BNB and Tron were up 1.2% and 2.5% respectively whereas XRP, Solana, Hyperliquid, Dogecoin, and Cardano corrected upto 6.4%.

Riya Sehgal, Research Analyst, Delta Exchange said crypto markets saw sharp two-way volatility after the latest U.S. CPI release, with Bitcoin briefly pushing toward $79K–$80K before giving back most of the move.

“Roughly $750 million in leveraged crypto positions were liquidated over 24 hours, with both shorts and longs caught during the rapid reversal. The initial upside squeeze forced bearish positions out, while the failed breakout later pressured late buyers.”

Also Read | SIF AUM rises 34% to Rs 31,175 crore in August; inflows jump 56% MoM: Report

The next major catalyst is the September 15–16 FOMC meeting, where policy guidance and the rate outlook are likely to drive the next major move, Sehgal further said.

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(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

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Bitcoin struggles above $77,000 as rising exchange reserves weigh on sentiment

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Explained: What Sebi’s proposed CAS changes mean for expiry-day trading and settlement

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Explained: What Sebi’s proposed CAS changes mean for expiry-day trading and settlement
The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) on Saturday, September 12, proposed changes to the Closing Auction Session (CAS), market timings and the settlement methodology for derivatives contracts, following the experience gained since CAS was introduced on August 3, 2026.

The regulator has proposed two options for determining expiry-day settlement prices for index and stock derivatives, changes to the timing of the continuous trading session (CTS), CAS and derivatives trading, and additional measures aimed at improving the functioning of the auction.

SEBI has invited public comments on seven proposals by October 3, 2026.

Two options for expiry-day settlement

SEBI has proposed two alternatives for determining the settlement price of index and stock derivatives on expiry days.

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Option 1: Blended VWAP

Under the first option, the settlement price would be based on trades executed during the last 30 minutes of CTS and the 10-minute CAS.


SEBI has termed this the “Blended VWAP”.
For index derivatives, the relative contribution of CTS and CAS would be determined based on the actual traded value during the respective periods. There would be no separate or predetermined weight assigned to either CTS or CAS.For stock derivatives, the blended price would be determined on the basis of VWAP across exchanges, considering the actual traded value during the last 30 minutes of CTS and the 10 minutes of CAS.

SEBI has described this as the proposed eventual settlement methodology.

Option 2: CTS VWAP

Under the second option, the expiry-day settlement price for both index and single-stock derivatives would be based only on trades executed during the last 30 minutes of CTS.

Transactions executed during CAS would not form part of the settlement calculation during the interim period.

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SEBI has described this as an interim methodology, providing continuity with the pre-CAS framework.

After at least one year, the regulator proposes to consider transitioning to the Blended VWAP methodology. The transition would not be automatic and would depend on experience with CAS, including liquidity and participation, familiarity of market participants with the auction mechanism and how CAS functions under different market conditions.

SEBI is seeking comments on whether Option 1 should be the preferred methodology, or whether Option 2 should be used before ultimately transitioning to Option 1.

IEP is not an executed price

SEBI has also sought to clarify the difference between the Indicative Equilibrium Price (IEP) displayed during CAS and an actual traded price.

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During CTS, compatible buy and sell orders are matched and a transaction is executed at the corresponding price.

During CAS, buy and sell orders are accumulated in the auction book. Based on orders received up to a particular point, the exchange calculates the price at which the maximum possible quantity could currently be executed.

As orders are entered, modified or cancelled, the IEP may change.

SEBI said the IEP is therefore “indicative and evolving during CAS and does not denote a price at which transactions have taken place.”

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The final CAS price is the price at which transactions are executed pursuant to the auction.

For example, an IEP of ₹100 shortly after the start of CAS means that, based on the orders available at that point, ₹100 is the price at which the maximum possible quantity could currently be executed. If more orders enter the book or existing orders are modified or cancelled, the IEP may change.

Therefore, a movement in the IEP from ₹100 to ₹103 does not by itself mean that the security’s traded price has moved to ₹103. It reflects the ongoing price discovery process and the price at which a transaction could execute if the auction ended at that point.

Why SEBI wants to stop IEP-derived index values during CAS

SEBI has also proposed stopping the dissemination of the Indicative Index Value (IIV) derived from IEPs during CAS, while continuing to provide security-level IEPs.

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The regulator said an index itself is not subject to an auction. Its indicative value during CAS is derived from the continuously evolving IEPs of its constituent securities.

The final index value is established only after the auction concludes and the final prices of the relevant constituent securities are determined.

SEBI said movement in the IEP-derived IIV during CAS should therefore not be interpreted as the index having actually reached that level, since no actual transactions have taken place at that index value.

For example, if the pre-CAS index value is 50,000 and the IIV during CAS is displayed at 48,500 points, this does not mean that the index has actually traded or reached 48,500 points.

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Such values, SEBI said, “may be misconstrued by market participants as actual levels reached by the index.”

The regulator has therefore proposed that security-level IEPs continue to be disseminated while the IEP-derived IIV is not disseminated during CAS.

Two options for market timings

The regulator has also proposed two alternatives for the timing of CTS, CAS and derivatives trading.

Option A: CAS after 3:30 pm

Under Option A, CTS for all stocks would continue until 3:30 pm.

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After a transition period of about one minute, CAS for CAS stocks would run from 3:31 pm to 3:40 pm.

Derivatives trading would continue until 3:45 pm, providing a five-minute window after CAS concludes.

SEBI said this option would provide greater continuity between CTS and CAS, with a longer CTS period.

Option B: CAS after 3:15 pm

Under Option B, CTS for CAS stocks would continue until 3:15 pm, while non-CAS stocks would continue to trade until 3:30 pm.

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CAS would run from 3:15 pm to 3:25 pm, including a transition period of about one minute.

Derivatives trading would continue until 3:30 pm, giving participants five minutes after CAS concludes.

SEBI said this option would retain the existing CTS duration for CAS stocks and align the close of derivatives markets with 3:30 pm.

Transition period to be cut to one minute

Under the current CAS framework, exchanges were given a five-minute transition period between CTS and CAS.

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SEBI has proposed reducing this to up to one minute.

The regulator said this would reduce the substantive transition period while retaining sufficient time for exchanges to complete the operational processes required to commence CAS.

It would also provide greater continuity between continuous trading and auction-based price discovery, while increasing the CTS period by about four minutes.

F&O window after CAS to be cut to five minutes

Under the existing framework, derivatives trading continues for 10 minutes after CAS.

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SEBI has proposed reducing this post-CAS derivatives trading window to five minutes.

The regulator noted that the existing additional window allows participants to achieve intended end-of-day exposures and enables arbitrageurs to square off unmatched positions.

For single-stock derivatives, the additional period also allows participants to take offsetting positions to manage physical delivery obligations.

However, based on feedback from market participants, SEBI said a shorter window may be sufficient once price discovery in the underlying security or index is complete.

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The regulator also noted that participants may not be able to complete all desired transactions during CAS and may therefore need a window after CAS to manage their positions.

CAS price band to remain at ±3%

SEBI has proposed retaining the existing ±3% price band for CAS.

Instead of narrowing the overall band, it has proposed restrictions on cancellation of orders placed beyond ±1% of the reference price.

Under the proposal:

  • Orders placed within ±1% of the reference price could continue to be cancelled during CAS.
  • Orders placed at, or modified to, prices beyond ±1% and up to ±3% of the reference price could not be cancelled during CAS.
  • Such orders could, however, be modified to improve the price, subject to the overall ±3% band.
  • The overall CAS price band would remain at ±3%.

For a buy order, price improvement would mean increasing the bid price. For a sell order, it would mean decreasing the offer price.

SEBI said the approach is intended to preserve the flexibility of the existing ±3% band while reducing the scope for significant withdrawal of trading interest at prices materially away from the reference price.

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The regulator said the proposal could also improve the stability and credibility of the auction order book while retaining flexibility for participants to improve their orders as demand and supply conditions evolve.

Iceberg orders may move into CAS

SEBI has also proposed allowing unexecuted Iceberg orders at the end of CTS to participate in CAS.

Under the existing framework, Iceberg orders placed during CTS divide the total quantity into smaller disclosed quantities, with only the applicable disclosed portion visible in the order book.

SEBI proposes that the pending quantity of an unexecuted Iceberg order at the commencement of CAS be converted into a normal limit order.

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The entire unexecuted quantity would then be disclosed in the CAS order book and made available for execution under the CAS matching mechanism.

For example, if an Iceberg order has a total quantity of 10,000 shares, with 1,000 shares visible at a time, and 6,000 shares have been executed during CTS, the remaining 4,000 shares would move into CAS as a normal limit order, with the entire 4,000-share quantity disclosed.

SEBI said this would ensure that eligible trading interest remaining at the end of CTS is not excluded from closing-price discovery because of the manner in which the order was originally placed.

It would also make the quantity actually available for execution fully visible in the CAS order book.

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What happens next?

SEBI has invited public comments on all seven proposals.

Comments and suggestions have to be submitted by October 3, 2026.

The proposals cover:

  • Expiry-day settlement methodology — Blended VWAP or CTS VWAP;
  • Market timings — Option A or Option B;
  • Dissemination of IEP-derived Indicative Index Value during CAS;
  • Restrictions on cancellation of orders beyond ±1% of the reference price; and
  • Transition of unexecuted Iceberg quantities from CTS to CAS.

SEBI said the proposals are intended to address the functioning of CAS, align trading timings and provide greater clarity around the distinction between indicative prices, final closing prices and derivatives settlement prices.

This article has been written by Kumar Gaurav, who is not a SEBI-registered Research Analyst or an Investment Adviser. Gaurav and his/her ‘relative(s)’ (as defined under Section 2(77) of the Companies Act, 2013) do not hold any financial interest in the companies mentioned in this article as of the date of publication. The views/recommendations mentioned in this article, wherever applicable, are those of the respective SEBI-registered Research Analyst/brokerage and have been reproduced/reported with due attribution. They should not be construed as the views or recommendations of The Economic Times Digital or the journalist. Readers are advised to consider the original research report and make their investment decisions based on their own assessment.

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Designer Brands: Margin Growth And Positive Outlook Support Share Price Upside (NYSE:DBI)

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Designer Brands: Margin Growth And Positive Outlook Support Share Price Upside (NYSE:DBI)

This article was written by

I am a specialist in Asian equities after having been a sellside analyst for 13 years. In addition, I have also spent time covering US hardware and semiconductor stocks on the sellside. Within Asia, I have covered the casino, automotive, industrial, consumer and technology sectors. I have also worked on the buyside as a fund manager in long only and as an analyst in hedge funds all covering Asian equities where I have developed a keen understanding of Asian companies and economies with a focus on China. From a global equities perspective, I enjoy covering companies globally by examining key metrics such as financial statements strength, valuation upside, and conducting proper analysis of the competitive advantages of the company. Throughout my career, I have found and written on undiscovered small cap companies which have increased in equity value by multiple times. I would like to write for Seeking Alpha where my goal is to help investors cut through the noise and to focus on fundamentals and the company’s competitive outlook instead of the momentum trade.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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