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Dollar firmer as US-Iran conflict intensifies, Brent hits $90

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Dollar firmer as US-Iran conflict intensifies, Brent hits $90
The dollar made a modest advance against most of its global peers at the start of Asian trading on Monday as the conflict in the Middle East escalated, with oil prices rising and investor confidence remaining fragile after turbulence last week.

The U.S. dollar climbed 0.1% to 162.48 yen, the greenback’s strongest level ‌since July ⁠9, as ⁠geopolitical tensions rose and investors sought safe-haven assets.

The euro was down 0.1% at $1.1426, while the British pound was level at $1.3445. The Australian dollar slipped 0.1% to $0.6975, while the New Zealand dollar declined 0.2% to $0.5833.

“FX markets were relatively subdued, with the USD broadly stable, while the AUD weakened against the greenback and most major currencies,” Westpac analysts wrote in a research report.

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“Market sentiment continued to ⁠deteriorate as ‌concerns around semiconductor valuations weighed on risk appetite, while tensions in the Middle East escalated after Iran suspended its commitments under ⁠the interim peace deal.”


Brent crude futures jumped 3.3% to $90.97 a barrel at the start of Asian trading after the U.S. said on Sunday it had begun a ninth straight night of attacks against Iran after earlier announcing that at least two U.S. military personnel were killed in Jordan.
Markets continue to anticipate no change to rates at the Federal Reserve’s next meeting on July 29, with Fed funds futures pricing ‌an implied 85.6% probability of a hold, compared to a 61.5% chance a month ago, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack on ⁠Friday added her voice to a growing chorus of policymakers arguing interest rates may need to rise to beat back persistent inflation, setting up a charged debate at the Fed’s next meeting and the possibility of dissents at Chair Kevin Warsh’s second meeting at the helm.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was up 0.1% at 100.84.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin was up 0.2% at $64,637.89, while ether was 0.2% higher at $1,869.72.

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Hosepipe ban extended to Surrey, Sussex, Hampshire and Berkshire

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The image shows Donaghadee harbour with a white lighthouse in the background. In the foreground are a number of colourful boats.

A hosepipe ban has been expanded to cover 2.4 million people across the south of England after record-breaking temperatures.

South East Water’s ban now includes parts of Sussex, Surrey, Hampshire and Berkshire – an extra 1.5m customers. A ban in parts of Kent has been in force since 3 July.

Douglas Whitfield, SEW’s water supply director, said it was “deeply sorry” and “incredibly grateful to everyone helping us protect water supplies” after exceptionally hot and dry weather.

Eastbourne MP Josh Babarinde said he was “appalled”, calling it “the direct result of years of underinvestment in upgrading infrastructure and building resilience”.

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Under the restrictions, households in the affected area will be banned from using a hosepipe in their homes for tasks including cleaning, filling ponds, or watering plants.

The ban will officially come in from 00:01 BST on Saturday, but SEW has asked its customers to abide by the restrictions immediately.

The UK record for the hottest day in June was broken for a third day in a row last month, with temperatures reaching 37.3C, the Met Office said.

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Nasdaq Composite Climbs Nearly 0.6% Monday as Semiconductor Stocks Rebound Ahead of Earnings Season

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The Nasdaq logo is displayed at the Nasdaq Market site in Times Square in New York

The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.59%, or 149.70 points, to 25,669.95 Monday morning, as semiconductor stocks staged a rebound following a volatile week of losses and investors positioned themselves ahead of a pivotal stretch of Big Tech earnings reports later this week.

Broader U.S. markets moved higher in tandem with the tech-heavy index. The S&P 500 added roughly 0.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up about 0.3%, according to Monday morning trading data. Oil prices eased somewhat after briefly touching $90 a barrel over the weekend amid continued exchanges of military strikes between the United States and Iran, providing an additional source of relief for equity markets that have remained sensitive to swings in energy prices throughout the summer.

Chip stocks recover after a difficult week

Monday’s advance followed a bruising stretch for semiconductor shares, which had come under significant pressure last week amid renewed concerns about the sustainability of the elevated valuations that have accompanied the broader artificial intelligence investment boom. The Nasdaq had dropped 1.4% to 25,520.24 on Friday alone, while the Dow fell 406.55 points, or 0.77%, as chip and technology stocks came under intense scrutiny to close out the week. The S&P 500 finished Friday’s session down 1.01% at 7,457.69, and all three major indexes posted weekly losses, with the Nasdaq’s 2.9% decline standing out as the sharpest among them.

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That selloff had been fueled in part by the debut of a new artificial intelligence model from Chinese startup Moonshot, which the company said performs on par with leading offerings from established Western AI developers, intensifying broader questions about whether current spending levels on AI infrastructure can be justified by near-term returns. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF fell more than 4% during that stretch, reflecting the scale of investor anxiety weighing on chip-related names heading into the new trading week.

A familiar pattern of sharp rotations

Monday’s rebound continues what has become a recurring pattern throughout 2026, in which chip and AI infrastructure stocks have repeatedly swung between sharp selloffs and equally sharp recoveries as investors continually reassess the durability of the sector’s underlying growth story. Earlier this month, the Nasdaq Composite surged 1.30% in a single session, climbing to 26,206.89, in a rally driven by broad-based buying across chip manufacturers, equipment makers and semiconductor companies following a prior period of pressure tied to valuation concerns.

That earlier rally was also supported by comments from President Donald Trump that investors interpreted as more conciliatory toward a diplomatic resolution with Iran, even as both countries continued exchanging military strikes at the time. Advanced Micro Devices surged more than 7% during that session, while Broadcom gained more than 3%, and the iShares Semiconductor ETF climbed more than 5%, illustrating how sensitive chip stocks have remained to both geopolitical developments and shifting sentiment around the broader AI trade throughout the year.

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Big Tech earnings loom as the next major catalyst

With Monday’s gains extending into the start of a new trading week, attention across Wall Street is increasingly focused on a wave of earnings reports expected from major technology companies in the coming days. Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta and Amazon are among the companies scheduled to report results, with investors paying particularly close attention to capital expenditure guidance tied to artificial intelligence infrastructure spending, a factor that market strategists have identified as more consequential to stock reactions this earnings season than whether companies simply beat or miss consensus estimates.

That dynamic has already played out repeatedly in recent weeks, with more than 86% of S&P 500 companies that have reported results so far this earnings season beating analyst expectations, even as markets have continued to sell off shares in many of those companies regardless of the headline beat. Strategists have pointed to guidance and capital spending commentary, rather than backward-looking earnings figures, as the more decisive factor shaping investor reactions during this particular stretch of the reporting season.

A record-setting first half followed by turbulence

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Monday’s advance comes against the backdrop of what has otherwise been an exceptionally strong, if volatile, year for the Nasdaq Composite. The index climbed 12.8% during the first half of 2026 alone, one of its strongest such performances in recent years, driven substantially by sustained investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure. That rally has not been without significant interruptions, however, with the index having fallen more than 2% in single sessions on multiple occasions this year amid periodic rotations out of richly valued technology names.

Geopolitical risk remains a persistent backdrop

Beyond the earnings-driven catalysts shaping this week’s trading, the ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran continues to represent a meaningful source of uncertainty for broader market sentiment. Oil prices have fluctuated sharply in recent weeks in response to escalating and, at times, easing tensions between the two countries, with any signs of renewed diplomatic engagement tending to provide at least temporary relief to both energy markets and the broader equity market’s risk appetite.

With chip stocks rebounding Monday and a critical stretch of Big Tech earnings reports set to begin later this week, market participants are likely to remain focused on capital expenditure guidance and broader commentary regarding the durability of AI-related demand as the key factors determining whether this week’s gains prove durable or give way to renewed volatility. At the same time, developments in the U.S.-Iran conflict are expected to continue shaping oil prices and broader risk sentiment, keeping markets attentive to geopolitical headlines alongside the corporate earnings calendar in the days ahead.

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Paychex: Good Execution, Modest Upside – Why I Am Staying On The Sidelines

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Paychex: Good Execution, Modest Upside - Why I Am Staying On The Sidelines

Paychex: Good Execution, Modest Upside – Why I Am Staying On The Sidelines

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Trump orders tightening of defense supply chain waiver rules

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Trump orders tightening of defense supply chain waiver rules

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JetBlue wins auction for Spirit’s LaGuardia flight slots

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JetBlue wins auction for Spirit’s LaGuardia flight slots

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China’s AI Boom: The Market Got It Wrong (SPX)

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China's AI Boom: The Market Got It Wrong (SPX)

This article was written by

James Foord is an economist by trade and has been analyzing global markets for the past decade. He leads the investing group The Pragmatic Investor where the focus is on building robust and truly diversified portfolios that will continually preserve and increase wealth.
The Pragmatic Investor covers global macro, international equities, commodities, tech and cryptocurrencies and is designed to guide investors of all levels in their journey. Features include a The Pragmatic Investor Portfolio, weekly market update newsletter, actionable trades, technical analysis, and a chat room. Learn more.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Andy Burnham promises to ‘build a new economy’ in first speech as Prime Minister

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The new Labour leader has pledged to revive the country’s industrial heartlands

Britain's new Prime Minister Andy Burnham delivers his first speech outside 10 Downing Street

Britain’s new Prime Minister Andy Burnham delivers his first speech outside 10 Downing Street(Image: Zeynep Demir/Anadolu via Getty Images)

Andy Burnham has pledged to “build a new economy” during his time as Prime Minister, vowing a suite of cost-of-living support measures for households will be unveiled as early as tomorrow.

Speaking on the steps of Downing Street, the new Labour leader said his government would put “life’s essentials back under stronger public control” and breathe new life into the nation’s industrial heartlands. He also restated his backing for the Starmer government’s defence commitments and vowed to bring “the welfare bill down”.

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“We will make this moment a circuit breaker for Britain, bringing forward the biggest changes in the last 40 years, a new political model and a new economic model,” Burnham said, adding: “We will take power out of here and carry it into every postcode in the land, so that they can do more, and in doing more, build a new economy where we put life’s essentials back under stronger public control.”

The comments marked the former Manchester mayor’s maiden address as Prime Minister, having been sworn into the nation’s highest office by the King mere moments before delivering his speech.

Sir Keir Starmer formally submitted his resignation earlier on Monday, informing voters that “his work was done” and that it had been the “privilege of [his] life” to serve in Downing Street.

In a break from previous speeches, Burnham chose to forgo a lectern, reiterating his previously declared commitment to redistribute political authority away from Westminster towards local councils and devolved institutions.

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The initiative will serve as the cornerstone of a “10-year plan” to introduce a fresh political and economic framework aimed at improving Britain, as reported by City AM.

“Later this year, I will bring forward a new plan for Britain, a 10-year plan,” he said, “laying out a path from where we are now to where I believe we all want Britain to be, wherever we’re coming from, whatever party we support.”

Burnham pledged to give voters “breathing space” with several costed measures to ease the cost of living expected to be unveiled as early as Tuesday.

“We will… build a new economy where we put life’s essentials back under stronger public control to make them affordable to you again, reindustrialising Britain using public procurement to back British industry,” he said.

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The renewed outbreak of conflict in the Middle East has left Burnham confronting a challenging economic legacy. The UK’s borrowing costs remained stubbornly high throughout his first morning in Downing Street, after Washington announced two further nights of strikes over the weekend and shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz came to a standstill.

The 10-year gilt yield was hovering at just under five per cent by the close of the former Manchester mayor’s address, remaining elevated amid concerns that escalating tensions will further fuel inflationary pressures within the British economy.

The head of Britain’s largest industry body welcomed Burnham’s pledge to unveil a 10-year plan, stating that businesses “thrive on long-term certainty”.

“Our surveys show energy and taxation are squeezing businesses, hitting confidence and investment. Easing the cost of doing business will deliver the growth we all want to see,” Shevaun Haviland, British Chambers of Commerce director general, said.

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“Getting growth in ‘every postcode’ of the UK is only possible if business is placed at the heart of the economic strategy,” she added. “Any structural changes to the economy must deliver growth – and that happens when firms invest and expand.”

CBI chief Rain Newton-Smith lent her voice to calls for businesses to play a central role in Burnham’s time in office.

She said: “Ambitious plans to improve the livelihoods of people across the country must be matched by action to get businesses thriving once again.

“Addressing the cost-of-living challenge needs to go hand in hand with tackling the cost of doing business, so we can deliver sustainable growth in jobs, wages and living standards.”

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Nigeria-Morocco Atlantic Gas Pipeline: African nations sign off $25bn mega plan

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The image shows Donaghadee harbour with a white lighthouse in the background. In the foreground are a number of colourful boats.

One of Africa’s most ambitious energy infrastructure projects has finally been signed off at the highest level, with West African leaders formally endorsing the long-awaited Nigeria-Morocco Atlantic Gas Pipeline.

“Don’t be surprised when the gas comes your way,” quipped Julius Maada Bio, Sierra Leone’s president and the current head of West Africa regional bloc Ecowas, following Sunday evening’s ceremony in Freetown.

The vast 6,000km (3,700 miles) pipeline will run along the Atlantic coast of 14 African nations, carrying Nigerian gas to Morocco before linking into Europe’s existing gas network via Spain.

Construction is expected to begin in 2028 with a total estimated cost of $25bn (£19bn).

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It signals a change from current models where gas is typically extracted from African nations, refined and processed abroad then shipped back to African nations at three or four times the price, says energy expert and former Nigerian government advisor Charles Majomi.

That practice must end, because it is a “complete devaluation of the resource that is so fortunately endowed in places like Nigeria and other countries,” he told BBC Focus on Africa.

By contrast, if leveraged correctly, the new pipeline has the potential not just to stimulate regional industrial growth but also boost Africa’s power on the international stage.

“In terms of Africa’s regional security and its ability to negotiate and have a seat at the global table, if you will, it does need this measure of usefulness to countries [in] Europe and Asia potentially,” argued Majomi.

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“Beyond energy security, it will open up Africa as a corridor to international markets,” Prof Ganiyat Adejoke Adesina-Uthman, of the National Open University of Nigeria, said.

It is a symbol of what Africa can achieve when countries collaborate and work together, she added.

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Abercrombie & Fitch: Cash Cow Machine With Swing Trade Potential – Reiterate Buy

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Abercrombie & Fitch: Cash Cow Machine With Swing Trade Potential - Reiterate Buy

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I am a full-time analyst interested in a wide range of stocks. With my unique insights and knowledge, I hope to provide other investors with a contrasting view of my portfolio, given my particular background.If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to me via a direct message on Seeking Alpha or leave a comment on one of my articles.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

The analysis is provided exclusively for informational purposes and should not be considered professional investment advice. Before investing, please conduct personal in-depth research and utmost due diligence, as there are many risks associated with the trade, including capital loss.

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Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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John Healey becomes chancellor weeks after shock resignation from defence job

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A woman in a blue puffy jacket looks at the camera. She has brown shoulder length hair and is wearing glasses. Behind her is a pile of red brick rubble and a partly demolished house.

His resignation came days before Andy Burnham’s pivotal by-election in Makerfield, adding to the sense that Sir Keir’s premiership was falling apart.

Healey earned plaudits from across the political spectrum for resigning on a matter of principle.

He had clashed with Reeves, the woman he is now replacing, pointedly saying in is resignation letter that the Treasury had been “unwilling” to “commit the resources that the nation needs to defend the country at this time of rising threats”.

His return to government in the most vital job of all in cabinet after the prime minister is an even bigger surprise than his resignation, given that his name had not been mentioned as a frontrunner in the increasingly feverish speculation about who Burnham would choose.

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Sources told the BBC that Burnham and Healey “have the same outlook” on many of the prime minister’s priorities, including reindustrialisation, the cost-of-living, and driving growth across the country.

The softly-spoken Yorkshireman has a remarkable record as someone who has been on the Labour frontbench almost continuously since 2001.

Born in Wakefield in 1960 and educated at Lady Lumley’s Comprehensive School, Pickering, and Peter’s School in York, he studied social and political science at Christ’s College, Cambridge.

Before entering politics, he worked as a journalist, briefly editing Parliament’s in-house magazine The House, before becoming a disability rights campaigner and trade union official.

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He is married and has one son.

He first came into Parliament in Tony Blair’s landslide general election in 1997 as MP for Wentworth, a former mining area north of Sheffield, which following boundary changes is now Rawmarsh and Conisbrough.

He retained the seat with a majority of 6,908 in the 2024 general election, with a Reform UK candidate in second place.

In the early 2000s, he held a string of ministerial posts, including housing, local government, and at the Treasury in the Blair and Gordon Brown governments.

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He also assisted Brown as his parliamentary private secretary.

But his main interest was housing policy. He served as shadow housing secretary when Jeremy Corbyn was Labour leader, despite supporting a failed attempt to oust Corbyn in 2016.

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