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Eli Lilly gaining in GLP-1 market over Novo Nordisk, earnings show

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Eli Lilly gaining in GLP-1 market over Novo Nordisk, earnings show

The Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk logos.

Mike Blake | Tom Little | Reuters

It’s a tale of two drugmakers in the red-hot obesity drug market. 

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Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are grappling with lower prices in the U.S., but their 2026 outlooks are diverging sharply: While Novo is bracing for a sales decline, Lilly sees revenue jumping again thanks to its blockbuster medicines. 

The split in guidance — despite similar headwinds — underscores the strength of Lilly’s position in the obesity and diabetes drug market, underpinned by its more effective injections and early foray into direct-to-consumer sales, among other factors. While Novo Nordisk effectively made the drugs mainstream, Lilly has since taken a clear edge in market share — and the forecasts show it will likely only extend its advantage this year.

“The difference in sales momentum and market share trend was visible throughout 2025, but the dichotomy between the two companies’ prospects was accentuated within this 24-hour period in which Novo guided below consensus and Lilly guided above consensus expectations,”  Leerink Partners analyst David Risinger told CNBC on Wednesday. 

“That really solidified an investor’s mind that Lilly is going to be the dominant player in obesity going forward,” he added. 

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This year, all eyes will be on how Lilly’s upcoming obesity pill, orforglipron, fares against Novo’s own oral Wegovy drug, which has had an explosive U.S. launch this year.

In an interview on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Wednesday, Lilly CEO David Ricks said 20 million to 25 million patients are currently taking both companies’ medicines. But he said the total addressable market of patients in the obesity space is “gigantic.” 

Eli Lilly CEO David Ricks on Q4 results: We're the market leader in both diabetes and obesity now

Diverging outlooks

On Wednesday, Lilly forecasted 2026 sales of $80 billion to $83 billion, surpassing the $77.62 billion that analysts were expecting, according to LSEG. 

The midpoint of that outlook translates to sales growing by 25% this year.

In contrast, Novo warned on Tuesday that it sees sales and profit declining by 5% to 13% this year, as prices fall in the U.S. and exclusivity expires for its blockbuster obesity and diabetes drugs in China, Brazil and Canada. 

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Mike Doustdar, left, CEO of Novo Nordisk, and David Ricks, CEO of Eli Lilly, listen as President Donald Trump speaks in the Oval Office during an event about weight-loss drugs on Nov. 6, 2025.

Andrew Caballero-Reynolds | Afp | Getty Images

Lilly similarly pointed to a “global pricing decline in the low- to mid- teens [percentages] this year.” That comes after the landmark “most favored nation” deals both companies struck with President Donald Trump in November to slash obesity and diabetes drug costs, along with their recent efforts to further reduce direct-to-consumer prices for their treatments. 

The agreements with Trump are expected to take a bite out of both companies’ sales, but eventually increase volumes of prescriptions for their drugs. Still, Lilly is bullish about other factors that will help offset that pricing pressure. 

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That includes continued worldwide demand for its obesity drug Zepbound and diabetes counterpart Mounjaro and the expected launch of its GLP-1 pill for obesity in the second quarter, pending U.S. approval. Lilly also pointed to government Medicare coverage of obesity treatments starting for the first time by at least July, one of the winning features of the drug pricing deals with Trump. 

Lilly’s Ricks told CNBC that coverage will open up access to 40 million new Medicare beneficiaries, “and that could be quite expansive to volume.”

Overall, Risinger called Lilly’s guidance “very encouraging” and said the “price per volume trade-off is playing out well” for the company.

He said tirzepatide, the active ingredient in Zepbound and Mounjaro, is “superior” in its effectiveness and tolerability compared to semaglutide, the ingredient in Novo’s obesity and diabetes drugs. That was proven in a head-to-head clinical trial conducted by Lilly in 2024, and prescription trends show that the company’s drugs are preferred among prescribers.  

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“I think that’s what is driving Lilly’s market share gain” relative to Novo, Risinger said. 

Another factor that sets Lilly and Novo apart is patent exclusivity. While Novo said expiring patents in some international markets pose a challenge, Lilly’s Ricks said tirzepatide should be protected into “the back half of the 2030s” in major markets. 

Risinger noted that Lilly is still working to drive global uptake for tirzepatide, which won U.S. approval for obesity in 2023. 

All eyes on pills

A pharmacist displays a box of Wegovy pills at a pharmacy in Provo, Utah, Jan. 15, 2026.

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George Frey | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Novo Nordisk is first to market with a GLP-1 pill for obesity, and it hit 50,000 weekly prescriptions in just under three weeks of its launch. But investors are watching to see how that shifts once Lilly’s pill rolls out to patients later this year. 

In an interview with CNBC’s “Mad Money,” Novo CEO Mike Doustdar said he’s confident about the company’s ability to compete with Lilly. 

“Clearly we have the most efficacious weight-reduction pill that there is and I’m very optimistic and bullish on when they come with their pill and we have to battle this out,” Doustdar said. 

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He’s referring to clinical trial data suggesting that Novo’s Wegovy pill promotes comparable weight loss to its injectable counterpart, which is around 15%. Meanwhile, Lilly’s pill appears to be slightly less effective than that, based on separate study data. 

Risinger said the launch of Novo’s pill has benefited from the fact that the company is leveraging the Wegovy brand name, which is recognizable by many patients, and immediately launched direct-to-consumer advertising for the product in early January. 

But he said Lilly could capitalize on its pill’s convenience advantage. 

Orforglipron is a small-molecule drug that is absorbed more easily in the body and doesn’t require dietary restrictions like Novo Nordisk’s pill, which is a peptide medication. Patients are supposed to drink no more than four ounces of water with the Wegovy pill and must wait 30 minutes before eating or drinking anything else each day. 

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Novo contends that those requirements won’t hinder uptake, but Risinger said it could help Lilly’s pill eventually generate greater sales globally. 

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New neighbourhoods with thousands of homes planned in move to shape region ‘for generations to come’

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Council chief says ‘This is about more than just building new homes – it’s about shaping places where families can grow ‘

Illustrations showing cycle paths and new houses.

Artists’ impressions of the new developments at Elton Reservoir, Walshaw, and Simister & Bowlee(Image: Bury Council)

Details of a plan to build three new neighbourhoods in Bury with almost 6,000 homes have been revealed.

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Plans for Elton Reservoir, Walshaw and Simister Bowlee will feature three new primary schools, new health facilities, five new community centres, as well as sports pitches and playgrounds.

Formerly greenbelt land, the three areas have been allocated for housebuilding under the Places for Everyone masterplan since 2024.

Townhall bosses are due to approve draft development frameworks at a scrutiny meeting on Tuesday, February 10. Members of the public will then be invited to comment on the schemes, which will help shape the final masterplans.

Council leader Eamonn O’Brien said: “This is about more than just building new homes – it’s about shaping places where families can grow and where people have the schools, transport links, and amenities they need to thrive. Together, these developments will provide lasting benefits for Bury and the wider region for generations to come.”

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A draft map for the Elton Reservoir development. Yellow marks the new residential areas, red shows 'mixed use spaces'.

A draft map for the Elton Reservoir development. Yellow marks the new residential areas, red shows ‘mixed use spaces’(Image: Bury Council)

Elton Reservoir

Elton Reservoir, an area just half a kilometre north of Radcliffe town centre, would be turned into 3,250 new homes. Around half the site would be retained as green space around the reservoir itself.

Six new residential areas would be built to the south and south-west of the lake, with a mixture of housing types – including around 25 per cent affordable and social housing. The plans also include a new two-form primary school, with the Star Radcliffe Academy secondary school at Spring Lane already due to be completed by summer 2026.

The masterplan also includes three high street areas, which could host retail, health and/or community centres.

A draft map of the new Walshaw neighbourhood.

A draft map of the new Walshaw neighbourhood(Image: Bury Council)

Walshaw

Located between Walshaw Village and Woolfold, the agricultural area would house up to 1250 homes once the plans are approved. Around 300 of the houses would be classed as affordable – a mixture of affordable and social rent, and affordable homes to buy.

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The site will retain space for a new primary school, as well as a new playing pitch and plenty of green spaces.

The plans feature several new highways, with incorporated active travel elements such as bike lanes.

In the plans produced by Stantec on behalf of the council, a consultant writes: “This development will aid the creation of neighbourhoods for Elton and Walshaw where residents can access everyday facilities on foot, whilst staying well connected to high quality services and jobs through convenient, direct and sustainable travel links.”

The Simister / Bowlee development will feature a new highway system and affordable housing.

The Simister / Bowlee development will feature a new highway system and affordable housing(Image: Bury and Rochdale Council)

Simister/Bowlee

The Simister & Bowlee site straddles the border of Bury and Rochdale, in a wedge of land between Prestwich and Middleton. A total of 1,550 new homes are tipped for the site, with around 1,350 of them falling on the Bury side.

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The neighbourhood is intended as an extension of Atom Valley, a project to build facilities for advanced manufacturing and engineering jobs in the Northern part of Greater Manchester. The new residential area could house employees at a convenient distance from the new workplaces.

Coun Neil Emmott, leader of Rochdale council, said: “This new framework represents another important step forward for this area as part of the wider Atom Valley project, which will create thousands of highly skilled jobs and new homes in Rochdale and Bury.”

In the draft plan prepared by both local authorities, the homes would once again be a mixture of commercial and affordable housing, and come with an upgraded local highway network. Green spaces and a local centre, which could include health centres and shops, are also a part of the plan.

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Terrell Owens on Bill Belichick, Robert Kraft snubs

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Terrell Owens on Bill Belichick, Robert Kraft snubs
Terrell Owens on Hall of Fame snub and biggest financial mistakes

NFL Hall of Famer Terrell Owens said Wednesday that the recent snubs of New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft and former coach Bill Belichick from the institution show the system is flawed, and someone needs to be held accountable.

“It’s just plain dumb” Owens told CNBC Sport in an interview in San Francisco ahead of Super Bowl LX. “Something has to change.”

The decisions not to vote Kraft and Belichick into the Pro Football Hall of Fame raised eyebrows because of the Patriots’ success. With a win over the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday, the franchise would hold the most Super Bowl wins of any NFL team with seven. Belichick was the team’s head coach for all six of its championship victories, including one over Owens’ Philadelphia Eagles.

2018 Hall of Fame inductee Terrell Owens speaks during a ceremony at halftime of the game between the San Francisco 49ers and the Oakland Raiders at Levi’s Stadium on Nov. 1, 2018 in Santa Clara, California.

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Daniel Shirey | Getty Images

Owens suggested it may be Jim Porter, the Hall of Fame’s president, who has the power to change the system.

“He has to change or make some some adjustments or amendments into either the criteria or the mission statement of the Hall of Fame. Something has to be done,” Owens said.

He also placed the blame on the writers responsible for voting.

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“Whoever put the guidelines and the bylaws in place to ultimately land coaches and athletes in the most prestigious place that you could ever be, and that’s Canton. If the people that you’re appointed aren’t adhering to that, then something’s wrong. They should be held accountable. They should be stripped of their position,” he said.

The Pro Football Hall of Fame did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The former six-time Pro Bowler Owens would know something about Hall of Fame voting. Owens played 15 seasons in the NFL and was inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 2018 after being passed over twice despite being ranked near the top of nearly every receiving category. Owens said it cost him financially.

“There’s a lot of complicated financial opportunity that comes with being really a first-ballot Hall of Famer. There’s a ring to it,” he added. “It used to mean so much, and now it seems to be a little bit watered down.”

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When he was inducted into the Hall of Fame, Owens opted to skip the celebration in Canton, Ohio, instead holding his own celebration at the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga, his alma mater, in protest of what he called a “flawed process,” according to ESPN.

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