Trade Barometer from Manchester Airports Group and Growing Together Alliance shows exporters are broadly upbeat
President Donald Trump speaks during the “Make America Wealthy Again” trade announcement event at the White House in 2025(Image: Chip Somodevilla, Getty Images)
British exporters have started pivoting away from America as the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs and trade policies goes on, the latest edition of a national trade study has revealed.
And with the Spring Statement coming up, a Northern business leader has urged Rachel Reeves to help unleash “significant and ambitious growth” across the regions of the UK, including the North and OxCam corridors, through growing global trade.
The latest UK Trade Barometer, from Manchester Airports Group and the Growing Together Alliance of business groups, showed that in the last quarter of 2025 manufacturers in particular had pivoted away from the US towards other markets.
But the shift from the States was seen in all sectors, with just 24% of those polled saying they had increased US sales in Q4, a figure which has fallen steadily from 29% at the start of 2025. When asked which global market they had entered for the first time in Q4, just 14% said America – down from 20% in Q1. Some 13% of those polled said they expected to start trading in the US in the next three months – the same figure as Q1 in 2025.
Nine markets in particular have grown in popularity over the past year. In Q4, some 10% of firms said they planned to increase sales to Australia, up on 6% in Q1, with Spain (6% vs 5%) and New Zealand (6% vs 2%) also growing in popularity.
Some 46% of all manufacturers said they had increased exports over the period, but just 16% said they had increased sales to America in Q4 – down from 25% in Q1.
But 12% of manufacturers said they had grown sales to China, a rate that doubled from 6% in Q1. The number reporting increased sales to Japan rose from 4% in Q1 to 8% by Q4.
The study also looks at which markets manufacturers broke into for the first time. In Q1 2025, 15% of those polled made their first move into America, but just 8% said the same in Q4.
But in Q4 some 9% of those polled said they had sold to China for the first time, up from 4% in Q1, while 9% also said they had sold to Japan for the first time – up from just 3% in Q1. Other markets to see growth were Australia, France, Germany and Spain.
In construction, some 92% of firms polled said they had increased overseas sales. At an average of 79% across all four quarters, it was the sector that saw the most export increases.
Just 18% of those firms said they grew US sales in Q4, down from 43% in Q1. The biggest growth market was Japan, with other growing markets including Ireland, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and New Zealand.
Financial services had its strongest quarter in Q4 with 59% reporting increased overseas sales. Some 25% of financial services firms grew sales to the US in Q4 – the same share as in Q1 – while the biggest other growth markets were India and Canada.
While all parts of the UK had their weakest overseas sales quarter in Q4, the gap between London and the nations and regions widened in the second half of 2025. In the fourth quarter some 64% of London exporters said they grew overseas sales, compared with 50% in the North, 47% in the Midlands and 44% in the East of England. The gap has widened since Q1, when 76% of London firms were growing exports compared to 69% of firms in the North.
Looking ahead, some 44% of London firms expected to grow exports, with 33% expecting to enter a new market for the first time. Those figures were 27% and 18% respectively in the North, 19% and 13% respectively in the Midlands, and 18% and 16% in the East of England.
All regions expect sales to America to bounce back in the first part of this year. The most upbeat region was the Midlands, with 49% expecting an uplift in US exports, with 43% in London and the East expecting rises. The North was the only region to see fewer firms forecasting fewer US export increases to America – 46% compared to 50% in Q3 – but that was still up on the first quarter of 2025, when just 40% expected sales growth.
Donald Trump first announced his tariff plans last April(Image: Chip Somodevilla, Getty Images)
The barometer, run in partnership with YouGov, is created from a survey of 2,000 businesses across the country every quarter. Business leaders answer questions about their global trading habits in the past quarter and their expectations for the quarter ahead.
Manchester Airports Group (MAG) is the largest UK airports group, owning and operating Manchester, London Stansted and East Midlands Airports as well as global travel services business, CAVU.
MAG CEO Ken O’Toole said: “As an island trading nation, we know how important our export performance is to the overall economic health of the UK.
“This full-year data shows the direct impact global events can have on businesses’ order books – but it also shows that British exporters are skilled at diversifying and pivoting to new markets – harnessing the resilience and innovation of our globally trading firms will be important if we want to kick-start growth.
Ken O’Toole, CEO of Manchester Airports Group(Image: Manchester Evening News)
“While some economic indicators point to a potential upturn in growth during the course of 2026, the fact fewer than one in three exporters expect to increase sales in the first part of this year paints a slightly different picture.
“As Government looks to deliver its Industrial Strategy, there is a clear opportunity to be grasped: by growing the number of firms that trade globally, we can boost productivity and living standards in regional growth corridors across the UK, from the Northern Growth Corridor to the Ox-Cam Arc. It is vital Government works with business to understand the steps it could take to help more firms trade internationally, including encouraging investment in the infrastructure that unlocks international connectivity.”
Henri Murison, chair of the Growing Together Alliance, said: “Over the course of 2025 we’ve seen a clear recalibration in UK trade patterns. While America remains a vital market, particularly for manufacturers, exporters have increasingly diversified as conditions have shifted. This reflects geopolitical realities, but also the adaptability and resilience of UK firms.
“The pivot to markets like Asia and Europe is notable – and if the Prime Minister can negotiate it then further reduced trade barriers with the latter it would make trade with countries in the European Union easier without allowing accusations of Brexit betrayal that a full-blown customs union could lead to.”
“The continued strength of London is welcome, and the priority should now be ensuring that export-led growth is not confined there but supports further increasing productivity across all regions.
“With the Spring Statement next week, there is an opportunity to reinforce the economic fundamentals which the Chancellor has focused on. This will allow her to continue backing significant and ambitious growth across the North and OxCam corridors underpinned by infrastructure.”
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