Business
Global Market Today: Asian stocks rise, oil falls as US cites Iran progress
MSCI’s gauge for Asian equities climbed 1% to a record with technology shares leading the gains on renewed optimism for the artificial intelligence trade. South Korea, a poster child for AI investments, jumped 5% to an all-time high, with Samsung Electronics Co. reaching $1 trillion valuation.
Brent, the global crude oil benchmark, fell 1.3% to about $108 a barrel following Trump’s comments. The dollar, which emerged as the haven of choice during the Middle East conflict, weakened.
Contracts for the S&P 500 Index advanced 0.3% and those for the Nasdaq 100 climbed 0.7% after Trump’s comments, as cheaper oil bolstered expectations for easing inflation and stronger growth. The Wall Street gauges closed at a record high on Wednesday and the tech rally appeared to have more to run, with strong earnings from Advanced Micro Devices Inc. and Super Micro Computer Inc.
With geopolitical risk premiums easing, the prospect of lower energy costs and reduced uncertainty improves the outlook for global growth, reinforcing support for equities even at record levels. The backdrop also dovetails with a revival in the artificial intelligence trade, as easing inflation pressures and improved sentiment bolster expectations for stronger corporate earnings.
“Our base-case for markets and the economy has been that there will be a near-term resolution between the US and Iran, allowing for energy prices to fall after the Strait of Hormuz is reopened,” said Chris Senyek at Wolfe Research.
Trump said he would pause a US-led effort to help stranded ships exit the Strait of Hormuz to see if an agreement with Iran to end the war could be finalized.“Project Freedom (The Movement of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz) will be paused for a short period of time to see whether or not the Agreement can be finalized and signed,” Trump said in a social media post on Tuesday.
Cheaper oil lifted the debt market with US long bonds rebounding during the New York session, sending the 30-year yield back below 5%. Even so, bond traders are boosting wagers that the Federal Reserve’s next policy move could be an interest-rate hike rather than a cut.
Elsewhere, the yen strengthened 0.1% to about 157.70 per dollar. Gold rose 0.8% to about $4,590 an ounce.
The rebound in global stocks from their Iran war lows has been so narrow that the market is primed for broader gains triggered by even slightly positive news, according to strategists at JPMorgan Chase & Co. led by Mislav Matejka.
“Many investors are trying to read the tea leaves on the next shoe to drop with the Iran war and oil prices, but stocks have historically moved on quickly from geopolitical events, and we believe this current issue is no different,” said Julian Koski at New Age Alpha.
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Nick Ackerman is a former financial advisor using his experience to provide coverage on closed-end funds and exchange-traded funds. Nick has previously held Series 7 and Series 66 licenses and has been investing personally for over 14 years.He contributes to the investing group CEF/ETF Income Laboratory along with leader Stanford Chemist, and Juan de la Hoz and Dividend Seeker. They help members benefit from income and arbitrage strategies in CEFs and ETFs by providing expert-level research. The service includes: managed portfolios targeting safe 8%+ yields, actionable income and arbitrage recommendations, in-depth analysis of CEFs and ETFs, and a friendly community of over a thousand members looking for the best income ideas. These are geared towards both active and passive investors. The vast majority of their holdings are also monthly-payers, which is great for faster compounding as well as smoothing income streams. Learn More.
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Nasdaq Sinks 4% to Mark Worst Day in a Year
UPS: 6% Dividend Yield And Undervalued Shares, A Non-Tech Leader
AI chip player Broadcom gave a forecast late Wednesday for current-quarter AI revenue that fell below analysts’ forecasts. That spooked investors even though there wasn’t a particularly worrying explanation for it.
Then came an unexpectedly good jobs report for May. A healthier labor market could lead the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated to combat inflation. Indeed, investors on Friday were pricing in an around 50% chance that the Fed could hike in October, up from a less than 20% chance a month ago. Higher rates wouldn’t be good for tech stocks that thrive when money flows freely through the economy.
Investors are also getting ready to put money into SpaceX ahead of its expected IPO next week. They are most likely to sell the so-called Magnificent Seven stocks, a group of big tech names, to rotate into SpaceX, Jefferies analysts said in a note.
Contractor Sterling Infrastructure and fiber provider Corning slid more than 10%.
Vertiv, which helps data centers manage power and cooling systems, skidded nearly 9% lower.
Neocloud companies including CoreWeave, Core Scientific and Nebius, which lease computing capacity to larger players, are deep in the red.
Independent power producers such as Constellation Energy and Talen are also down.
1502 ET – Crude futures settle lower with market expectations of a resolution to the U.S.-Iran conflict outweighing concerns of a renewed flare-up. “The oil market has definitely gotten the sense that President Trump wants this thing over,” says John Kilduff of Again Capital. Fears are increasing that the U.S. will “agree to anything to get it over with for a while so these prices can really come back down,” he adds. The trickle of tankers making it through the Strait of Hormuz isn’t resolving the problem and the market has been relying on storage, but stocks are running down as the strait remains effectively closed, Kilduff says. “The cliff in my opinion is in the beginning of July. That’s when the real crunch should dawn.” WTI ends down 2.7% at $90.54 a barrel and Brent falls 2% to $93.09. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
Crude Futures Slip Ahead of the Weekend
0929 ET – Oil futures are lower heading into the weekend as the market holds out hopes for U.S.-Iran negotiations to eventually bring about an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The market appears more sensitive to occasional bearish war headlines or optimistic comments from President Trump than to the daily loss of supply, Ritterbusch & Associates says in a note. “Holding a long position that would be more appropriate to global oil fundamentals has been extremely difficult throughout the course of this war.” WTI is down 0.9% at $92.23 and Brent is off 0.6% at $94.49(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
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