BEAVERTON, Ore. — Nike shares have collapsed nearly 80% from their 2021 all-time high, and the decline has only accelerated in recent weeks, driven by a combination of persistent weakness in China, a slower-than-expected turnaround, and the company’s pending removal from the prestigious S&P 100 index later this month.
Nike stock closed at $38.40 on Sept. 4, according to historical market data, putting the shares roughly 50% below their own 52-week high of $76.97 and about 78.6% below the intraday record of $179.10 the stock set on Nov. 5, 2021. The stock briefly touched a fresh 52-week low of $37.95 on Sept. 3, and its market value has fallen to roughly $56.9 billion, down from approximately $281 billion at its 2021 peak.
S&P Dow Jones Indices announced Sept. 4 that Nike will be removed from the S&P 100 index before trading opens Sept. 21, replaced by cybersecurity firm Palo Alto Networks. Dell Technologies, Arista Networks and Sandisk are also joining the index in the same reshuffling, while Honeywell Aerospace, Simon Property Group and Colgate-Palmolive are being removed alongside Nike.
Importantly, analysts have stressed that the index removal is a consequence of Nike’s decline rather than a cause of it. A business once priced by investors as a nearly flawless growth story is now being valued as a difficult turnaround situation, following years of weaker product innovation, a disrupted wholesale network, falling digital sales and deep, sustained problems in China.
China has emerged as the single biggest source of pressure on Nike’s business. According to Reuters, Nike’s Greater China revenue fell 17% on a constant-currency basis in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, a steep acceleration from the 10% decline recorded in the prior quarter. The company continues facing intensifying competition in that market from domestic Chinese brands including Anta and Li Ning, which have steadily eroded Nike’s market share in one of its most important international markets.
Nike’s direct-to-consumer strategy, once viewed as a key pillar of the company’s long-term growth plan, has also weakened considerably. In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, Nike Direct revenue fell 7% year over year, while digital sales specifically declined 12%. For the full fiscal year, which ended May 31, Nike Direct revenue fell 6% to $17.7 billion, while Nike Brand digital revenue dropped 12%. In response, the company has shifted back toward emphasizing its wholesale retail partnerships, with Nike Brand wholesale revenue rising 6% to $27.5 billion over the same period, a reversal of the strategy Nike had pursued for much of the past decade.
For the full 2026 fiscal year, Nike reported $46.4 billion in total revenue, essentially flat compared with the prior year and down 2% on a currency-neutral basis. Net income declined to $3.1 billion from $3.2 billion in fiscal 2025. Underlying earnings per share came in at just $1.58 for the year, once a one-time $0.52 per share benefit tied to an expected tariff recovery was excluded, reflecting a 55.6% decline in underlying profitability compared with fiscal 2021.
Nike’s fourth-quarter earnings report, released June 30, initially sent shares plunging double digits in after-hours trading, though the stock recovered to finish up 5% the following session, a move some investors interpreted as a sign the stock might be bottoming out. That optimism proved short-lived. Investors grew increasingly concerned about the company’s guidance for continued revenue declines in the first half of fiscal 2027, along with comments on the earnings call indicating gross margins were not expected to return to growth until the second quarter of fiscal 2027, later than many investors had hoped.
Broader macroeconomic and geopolitical pressures have compounded Nike’s company-specific challenges. The stock sank further in March amid the outbreak of war involving Iran, which weighed on consumer discretionary stocks broadly, given Nike’s sensitivity to inflation and the potential for the conflict to disrupt global supply chains, particularly given the company’s heavy reliance on manufacturing hubs across Southeast Asia. Tariff-related costs stemming from trade policies implemented in 2025 have added further pressure to Nike’s already strained profit margins throughout 2026.
Nike CEO Elliott Hill, who returned to lead the company in October 2024 in an effort to reverse its declining fortunes, has continued working to rebuild the company’s product pipeline and repair relationships with wholesale retailers following years of emphasis on direct-to-consumer sales. Despite those efforts, Nike’s market share has continued declining for three consecutive years, facing intensifying competition from rivals including Hoka and On Holding, alongside the mounting pressure from Chinese domestic brands.
Insider trading activity has also drawn scrutiny amid the stock’s continued decline. According to a Securities and Exchange Commission filing, Hill disposed of 9,462 shares of Nike Class B common stock on Sept. 1, though the transaction resulted from shares withheld by the company to cover tax obligations tied to a vesting restricted stock unit award, rather than a discretionary open-market sale. Hill’s remaining direct equity stake in Nike was valued at approximately $14.25 million as of the Sept. 1 market close.
Nike’s footwear business, its largest and most closely watched category, generated approximately $29.5 billion in revenue during fiscal 2026, remaining the primary focus of the company’s turnaround efforts. Wall Street analysts have warned that Nike could face an additional $1 billion headwind tied to planned changes to its digital strategy specifically in China, a factor that has further contributed to the stock’s continued decline in recent weeks.
Despite the severity of the stock’s collapse, some analysts have suggested Nike’s departure from the S&P 100 could ultimately mark a form of capitulation, potentially signaling that the worst of the stock’s decline has been priced in by the market. Others remain more cautious, noting that Nike’s valuation reset from roughly 50 times earnings at its 2021 peak to around 24 times earnings today reflects a fundamentally different, more challenged business rather than simply a temporarily depressed stock price. Whether Nike’s ongoing turnaround under Hill can eventually translate into renewed sales growth, particularly in China, remains the central question determining whether the stock’s current depressed valuation ultimately represents a buying opportunity or a continuation of the company’s multiyear decline.
You must be logged in to post a comment Login