Geopolitical shocks, like the ongoing conflict in West Asia, naturally unsettle markets. When headlines flash warnings of oil price spikes, shipping disruptions, and global “risk‑off” sentiment, it’s easy to lose sight of long‑term goals. We saw this not too long ago when the Nifty dropped nearly 3% intraday, driven by fears over crude supply routes and broader risk aversion. For India, which imports a large share of its crude and gas from this region, concerns about inflation, the current account deficit, and growth are entirely understandable.

Yet history, both global and Indian, offers a reassuring lesson: markets are usually far more resilient than the gloom that dominates the headlines. From the Gulf War to the Russia‑Ukraine conflict in 2022, we have seen that while volatility spikes and drawdowns occur, broad indices have tended to recover as uncertainty fades. For long‑term investors, the real challenge is sticking to a disciplined plan that balances risk management with the ability to capture opportunities when they arise.

What is Driving Markets Right Now?

In the short term, three forces are shaping the market: the war, oil prices, and global liquidity. The disruption of key energy routes has pushed crude prices higher, unsettling risk assets worldwide. For India, this raises the risk of imported inflation and a wider current account deficit. At the same time, global central banks remain cautious, with a gradual path of rate cuts extending into 2026–27. This has kept Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) on the sidelines, even as domestic institutions continue to provide crucial support.Indian benchmarks have swung between sharp declines and swift rebounds. What often gets missed is that the real “pain” at the stock and sector level (especially in mid‑caps, small‑caps, and high‑beta financials) can be far deeper than the headline index suggests. In such an environment, thoughtful asset allocation and strict valuation discipline matter more than trying to time daily index movements.

What Can History Teach Us About Markets and Wars?

Looking back at decades of geopolitical events, we can spot three recurring patterns. During episodes such as the Cuban Missile Crisis, 9/11, and the Russia‑Ukraine war, markets did experience sharp volatility and drawdowns. Yet, as uncertainty eased and worst‑case scenarios were priced out, indices typically recovered within weeks to months. After the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, for example, the S&P 500 regained its initial losses within about a month, even as crude prices remained elevated.
The key takeaway is that geopolitical shocks alone rarely derail long‑term equity returns. Lasting damage usually happens only when these shocks coincide with deep macroeconomic imbalances. Today, for India, the near‑term risk is less the conflict itself and more a sustained spike in oil prices and its secondary effects on inflation and the currency. Provided crude does not stay well above $100 for an extended period, the macro impact, while uncomfortable, is likely manageable for a growing economy with strong domestic demand.

A Practical Framework for Indian Investors

Given this backdrop, the right response will naturally depend on your risk profile and investment horizon. That said, a few universal principles can help investors stay grounded and balanced.

Do’s:

• Revisit asset allocation: Use this period to check whether your mix of equity, debt, and gold still matches your true risk tolerance. Portfolios that have drifted toward high‑beta or thematic bets may benefit from a course correction toward core, diversified holdings.
• Stagger investments: For those with surplus capital, systematic deployment, through STPs or SIP top‑ups, helps average into volatility without trying to time the absolute bottom.
• Upgrade quality: Corrections often compress valuations for fundamentally strong businesses. Use the dip to rotate from speculative names into leaders with healthy balance sheets and pricing power.
  
  
• Maintain liquidity: Ensure 6–12 months of essential expenses are parked in safe, liquid instruments, so you’re not forced to sell equities in a downturn.
  
  
• Stick to a plan: Document your target allocation and review schedule. A structured quarterly check‑in helps you avoid impulsive decisions driven by fear or greed.

Don’ts:

• Avoid leveraged “catch‑the‑falling‑knife” bets: Aggressively averaging down with borrowed money is a fast track to capital destruction, especially when news flow is uncertain and margin calls loom.
• Don’t overhaul long‑term plans: Selling quality equity exposure wholesale because of a geopolitical event risks missing the eventual recovery.
  
  
• Don’t ignore valuations: Not every stock that falls 20–30% is a bargain. Focus on businesses where temporary headwinds do not impair long‑term cash flows.
  
  
• Don’t panic‑stop SIPs: Systematic plans are designed for exactly this kind of environment. Halting them turns temporary paper losses into permanent losses of compounding potential.

What Does the Future Hold?

For Indian investors, the goal should be to protect long‑term objectives while using volatility to strengthen portfolio quality. In the base case, where the conflict remains contained and oil prices do not stay significantly elevated, the impact on India should be manageable. Even in a more adverse scenario, the right response is disciplined, systematic risk management, not extreme “all‑in or all‑out” moves.

Over the next 12–24 months, I recommend a three‑step framework:

• Stabilise: Reaffirm your emergency buffers and pare down unnecessary debt, so decisions aren’t forced by stress.
  
  
• Systematise: Continue or enhance SIPs and use clear, predefined rules to guide your deployment.
• Capitalise: Use corrections to upgrade portfolio quality and, for those with capacity, consider calibrated allocations to dynamic asset‑allocation strategies.

Wars and crises will come and go. India’s long‑term growth and financialisation story, however, is playing out over decades. For investors who stay aligned to that horizon, staying calm, staying liquid, and staying disciplined is likely to be the most rewarding strategy.

Absolut vodka maker

Pernod Ricard

RI

7.94%

increase; green up pointing triangle and Jack Daniel’s maker Brown-Forman BF.B 5.63%increase; green up pointing triangle are in talks to combine as alcohol companies contend with slowing sales. 

Pernod, based in Paris, oversees a portfolio of 200 spirits brands, including Jameson Irish whiskey and Beefeater London gin, and has a market value of around $17 billion.

The security feature called “Lockdown Mode” is almost four years old, and Apple has recently claimed that it has prevented all kinds of spyware attacks on devices where it is enabled.

This specific feature is an opt-in one found in the device’s settings, and it switches off certain features that bad actors mostly use to get into devices, helping stop the threat before it even gains access.

Apple’s Lockdown Mode Prevented All Kinds of Spyware Attacks

According to a report by TechCrunch, Apple spokesperson Sarah O’Rourke told the publication that Apple’s Lockdown Mode has prevented all kinds of spyware attacks on devices that have it turned on.

O’Rourke said that the company was not able to detect and record any kind of “mercenary spyware attacks” against devices that have Lockdown Mode enabled.

The Cupertino tech giant reaffirmed how effective and powerful their Lockdown Mode is, and according to TechCrunch, this is the company’s second time claiming the usefulness of the feature since it was launched.

The report shared that Amnesty International’s head of security lab, Donncha Ó Cearbhaill, also backed Apple’s claims, saying that he and his colleagues did not see any evidence that Lockdown Mode-enabled devices were compromised by this kind of attack.

Lockdown Mode Is Available on the iPhone, iPad, and Mac

It was revealed that Apple has accepted the fact that their devices can be hacked, and the company has been notifying affected or targeted customers over the years. With this, Lockdown Mode was born, specifically as the company prioritizes privacy and security for their devices, something which they have prided themselves on over the years.

The security feature was made available to the iPhone, iPad, and Mac devices, and this feature could be turned on in the Settings app. Lockdown Mode will turn off several device features that may be exploited or hacked, taking down potential points of entry before bad actors get a chance to attack.

Apple previously claimed that it can also protect users from government spyware made by the likes of Intellexa, NSO Group, and Paragon Solutions.

Originally published on Tech Times

India’s metabolic therapy landscape is undergoing a structural shift following the patent expiry of semaglutide, triggering a rapid transition from a premium, innovator-led market to a highly competitive, volume-driven segment. Historically constrained by high prices and limited access, the category is now witnessing a sharp inflection in demand, supported by significant price erosion of nearly 85–90% and a surge in product launches.

The addressable opportunity remains substantial. With an estimated 75–80 million obese individuals and a large proportion suffering from co-morbid conditions, the need for structured obesity management is becoming increasingly evident. GLP-1 penetration, which remained low due to patent protection, is now expected to rise meaningfully as affordability improves and distribution expands. Over the next 3–5 years, the market could scale to INR34–67 billion, driven by rising patient adoption and chronic therapy demand.

A key growth driver is the expanding prescriber base. While endocrinologists and diabetologists remain primary stakeholders, adoption is increasingly being supported by cardiologists, gastroenterologists, gynaecologists, and other specialists due to the multi-system impact of obesity and metabolic disorders. This broadening ecosystem is expected to accelerate awareness, referrals, and prescription volumes, reinforcing long-term demand visibility.

However, the sector faces structural challenges. The entry of over 10–15 players has intensified competition, leading to rapid market fragmentation and pricing pressures. Despite a large volume opportunity, individual revenue gains are likely to remain modest, with low single-digit contribution to overall sales for most participants. Limited prescription bandwidth—where physicians typically engage with only a handful of brands—further constrains market share potential, increasing the need for aggressive marketing and elevating promotional costs.

Pricing dynamics also reflect a clear stratification, with premium, mid-tier, and mass-market strategies co-existing. While this enhances accessibility, it accelerates commoditisation, weighing on margins across the value chain. Additionally, companies risk diverting focus from established portfolios amid heightened competition in this segment.

An emerging structural trend is the rising preference for next-generation therapies. Even as semaglutide drives awareness and category expansion, newer molecules with superior efficacy are witnessing faster uptake and stronger physician preference, indicating a potential shift in long-term market leadership.
Overall, the GLP-1 segment in India presents a compelling volume-led growth opportunity underpinned by strong demand fundamentals. However, the combination of pricing pressure, intense competition, and limited differentiation suggests that value capture may remain constrained, making scale and execution critical in navigating this evolving landscape.

Ajanta Pharma: Buy| Target Rs 3400

Ajanta Pharma is preparing to launch generic semaglutide post patent expiry of Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic/Wegovy in India, while continuing to expand its portfolio in high-growth segments such as dermatology, pain management, and nephrology. Ajanta Pharma’s long-term growth is driven by its expanding presence in branded generics across India, US, Africa, and Asia, with a focus on chronic therapies and new launches supporting sustained demand and deeper penetration in high-growth markets. Management expects mid-teens revenue growth with EBITDA margins around 27%, supported by expansion in Asia and Africa, a strong US product pipeline, and strategic addition of medical representatives to drive execution.

Sun Pharma: Buy| Target Rs 1940

Sun Pharma’s Innovation momentum remains a key growth pillar, with specialty and novel therapies scaling up meaningfully. USD1b+ innovative sales (ex-milestones) provide resilience against US pricing pressure, while strong domestic formulation execution, consistent market share gains, and ROW/EM stability underpin diversified, sustainable growth drivers. In 3QFY26, SUNP delivered in-line adjusted revenues and EBITDA 6% ahead of estimates, supported by robust DF growth and favorable mix. Margin expansion reflected execution strength, partly offset by continued weakness in US generics due to regulatory headwinds at select sites. We estimate EM+ROW revenues to reach INR230b over FY25-28 at 12% CAGR, while specialty sales grow 11% CAGR to USD1.7b. Sustained DF outperformance, rising innovative R&D intensity, and steady pipeline launches support earnings visibility.

(The author is Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research – Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services)

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)