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Here’s the breakdown of U.S. borrowers

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Here's the breakdown of U.S. borrowers

An aerial view of homes in San Francisco, Aug. 27, 2025.

Justin Sullivan | Getty Images

The share of U.S. homeowners with high rates on their mortgages has jumped sharply in just the last few years.

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That’s having a marked impact on the refinance market and a somewhat more muted impact on home sales. Rates have been front and center in the debate over how to improve home affordability — and for good reason.

In 2022, after mortgage interest rates hit more than a dozen record lows, sparking a refinance bonanza, barely 10% of homeowners had 30-year fixed mortgages with rates above 5%. Just four years later, that share has jumped to over 30%, according to ICE Mortgage Technology. About 20% of borrowers have mortgages with a rate over 6%.

Home sales have been less than robust over the last few years, with the National Association of Realtors reporting a historically low 4.06 million sales last year, basically unchanged from 2024. This, after hitting a 15-year high of 6.12 million home sales in 2022.

More recent sales, combined with some cash-out refinancing, pushed the share of higher-interest-rate borrowers up.

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There has been a major focus by the Trump administration to lower mortgage rates as a way to boost home affordability.

The president recently announced a plan for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy more than $200 billion in mortgage-backed bonds. It is still a subject of debate as to how much lower that would push mortgage rates once the purchase is made, but just the announcement alone caused rates to drop a bit.

Industry experts say the actual purchases could shave perhaps about an eighth of a percentage point off the current 30-year rate, putting it right around 6%. Last year at this time, the average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage was just over 7%, according to Mortgage News Daily.  

If the average on the 30-year fixed moved to 6%, 5.5 million current homeowners would be able to benefit from a refinance, according to ICE Mortgage Technology. Those homeowners could save at least 75 basis points on their rate, which makes the fees involved financially worthwhile, it said.

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If rates dropped to 5.88%, that number grows to 6.5 million homeowners.

“The most popular interest rate that’s been used to buy a home over the last 3.5 years is between 6.875% and 6.99%, right? Nobody wanted to tell their neighbors they used a 7% interest rate to buy a home, so everybody bought down into this high 6% range,” said Andy Walden, ICE Mortgage Technology’s head of mortgage and housing market research.

“Coincidentally, those 15-basis-point-spread moves from this $200 billion in MBS purchase is moving rates from what would have been six and a quarter right now down to six and an eighth. And so it’s providing meaningfully more refinance incentive than would otherwise be out there, and it’s having an oversized impact on the market,” he said.

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Applications to refinance a home loan are now about 120% higher than they were one year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

As for home sales, the last four years were characterized by the so-called rate “lock-in” effect, meaning potential sellers didn’t want to give up their historically low rates. They therefore put off moves that they might otherwise have wanted to make.

Entering 2025, there were roughly 39 million homeowners with an interest rate below 5% and roughly 12 million with an interest rate below 3%, according to Walden.

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“If you look at how those borrowers behaved last year, only about 6% of those folks gave up those low rates, either through a refinance to pull equity out of their home or through the sale of their home. Close to 95% of homeowners held on to those rates tight,” he said.

As for prospective homebuyers, a 15-basis-point drop on the 30-year fixed rate would save only about $35 a month on the mortgage payment for the average-priced home. Alternately, they could keep the rate and buy 1.5% more home.

“Certainly a move in the right direction, but not a massive movement for those homebuyers,” said Walden.

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Washington Post announces sweeping layoffs, scaling back news coverage

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A former editor describes the massive cuts as one of the “darkest days” in the history of the storied newspaper.

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New bill would prevent restored Social Security benefits from prompting tax bill

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A newly introduced bill would prevent some public sector retirees from being hit with a tax bill after they were made eligible for Social Security benefits last year.

The bipartisan bill, known as the No Tax on Restored Benefits Act, was introduced by Rep. Lance Gooden, R-Texas, and would create a gross income tax exclusion for the retroactive, lump sum payments of Social Security benefits paid to certain public sector retirees on pensions who previously had their benefits reduced or eliminated because they didn’t pay Social Security taxes while working. 

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It follows last year’s enactment of the Social Security Fairness Act, which allowed for the retroactive benefit payments to covered retirees.

“First, the federal government shortchanged public servants by withholding the Social Security benefits. Now, Washington is trying to tax those benefits,” Gooden told FOX Business. “It’s a slap in the face to teachers, firefighters, law enforcement officers and more who devoted their careers to serving our communities. The No Tax on Restored Benefits Act finally ends the mistreatment of our public-sector retirees.”

SOCIAL SECURITY PAYMENTS TO INCREASE FOR PUBLIC PENSION RECIPIENTS

Woman with walker heads into Houston Social Security office

The new bill would aim to prevent a tax consequence for those who got lump sum payments under the Social Security Fairness Act. (Mark Felix/The Washington Post)

Rep. Chellie Pingree, D-Maine, is a lead cosponsor of the bill and said the Social Security Fairness Act “was truly transformative” for hundreds of thousands of Americans, but “it was never intended to saddle widows, low-income seniors and dedicated public servants with an unexpected tax bill.”

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“The No Tax on Restored Benefits Act addresses this problem in a fair, commonsense way by protecting people who were previously below the taxation threshold from being unfairly punished because of a one-time, retroactive increase in their earned benefits,” Pingree said.

The bill has received support from the National Association of Police Organizations, and Executive Director Bill Johnson noted that “retirees are facing a large tax bill on those same benefits Congress worked to restore,” and the new legislation “will ensure no public servant will continue to be penalized simply because they chose public service.”

MILLIONS TO GET HIGHER SOCIAL SECURITY PAYMENTS UNDER NEW LAW

Rep. Lance Gooden talks to the press

Rep. Lance Gooden, R-Texas, introduced this bill to protect restored Social Security benefits from taxes. (Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

The introduction of the No Tax on Restored Benefits Act follows the enactment of the Social Security Fairness Act last year, which made certain public sector retirees eligible for the retroactive payments and was signed into law in January 2025 by then-President Joe Biden.

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It eliminated policies known as the Windfall Elimination Provision (WEP) and Government Pension (GPO) which reduced or eliminated Social Security benefits for workers who received a public pension and weren’t covered by Social Security taxes. 

Those policies reduced or eliminated Social Security benefits for over 3.2 million people who receive a pension for work that wasn’t covered by Social Security because they didn’t pay Social Security taxes.

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Rep. Chellie Pingree holds a press conference

Rep. Chellie Pingree, D-Maine, cosponsored the No Tax on Restored Benefits Act. (Bryan Dozier/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images)

Among the groups of people affected include certain teachers, firefighters and police officers in many states; federal employees covered by the Civil Service Retirement System; and people whose work was covered by a foreign social security system.

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The WEP and GPO policies didn’t apply to all people within those groups because about 72% of state and local public employees work in roles covered by Social Security and pay into the system. So, those retirees won’t see a benefit increase under the Social Security Fairness Act.

The elimination of WEP and GPO policies was retroactive to January 2024, and the Social Security Administration indicated the one-time payment would be deposited into the account on file by the end of March 2025.

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The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimated that the Social Security Fairness Act will add $196 billion to the federal budget deficit over the 10 years after its enactment and projected it will hasten the insolvency of Social Security’s main trust fund by six months.

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UK businesses only planning year-to-year thanks to political uncertainty, new study shows

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Lewis Silkin study shows nearly 80 per cent of employers are unable to look beyond a year ahead, with the Employment Rights Bill creating additional challenges

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Political and economic uncertainty are making life hard for businesses, the study shows (Image: Gary Yeowell / Getty Images)

Political uncertainty and regulatory ambiguity are stopping businesses from doing the long-term planning their employees need, a new study has shown.

Close to 80% of employers are struggling to plan beyond a year ahead, the survey of almost 700 organisations by law firm Lewis Silkin has shown.

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Lucy Lewis, partner and chair at Lewis Silkin, said: “Economic pressures, and political and regulatory change narrow the planning window even further… reactive tactics which mean that transformation programmes or workforce redesign get sidelined.”

One in four UK organisations cited preparing for and adhering to the Employment Rights Bill as a principal challenge, with the sweeping changes to workers’ protections set to impose costs on businesses.

The contentious Bill received final approval to become legislation in December after prolonged debates in the House of Lords regarding ‘day one’ entitlements, as reported by City AM.

As the Act becomes embedded in law, Tarun Tawakley, partner at Lewis Silkin, noted: “Over the next 12–24 months, expect cautious hiring, legally anchored policy-setting and a premium on disciplined execution.”

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As well as those pressures, escalating employment costs have emerged as a key factor pushing British firms towards short-term, reactive strategies. The uptick in employer national insurance contributions (NIC) alongside a 4.1% increase in the national living wage has generated considerable recruitment challenges.

Smaller businesses face particular pressures from taxation, employer contributions and the cumulative administrative burden of compliance.

With the majority of these businesses expecting their organisations to invest more heavily in technology than people over the coming year, the survey highlighted the anticipated cultural implications.

Nearly half (49 per cent) of organisations anticipate cultural resistance, including fears about job losses or mistrust of AI outputs, which could hinder the adoption of new technologies.

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Lisa Farthing, head of worksphere and HR consultancy at Lewis Silkin, said the upskilling challenge “is becoming more acute as employment law rights continue to expand and employees’ awareness of those rights grows, placing greater importance on effective training, coaching and people management.”

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Disney Succession Drama Heats Up as Nelson Peltz Targets Bob Iger

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Disney’s long-running leadership drama is heating up again as activist investor Nelson Peltz accuses outgoing CEO Bob Iger of shaping the company’s succession plan to keep control behind the scenes.

The clash centers on Iger’s choice of theme parks chief Josh D’Amaro as his successor, a move Peltz claims is designed to justify Iger’s continued influence at the company.

In comments to The Wall Street Journal, Peltz said Iger favored D’Amaro over entertainment executive Dana Walden so he could stay involved after stepping down.

“Iger needs a reason to stay on,” Peltz said, arguing that choosing a parks executive over a Hollywood veteran creates space for Iger to remain a guiding force.

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D’Amaro, 54, is set to take over as CEO next month, while Iger will stay on as a Disney director and senior adviser through the end of the year.

Walden, once seen by many as the top contender for the role, was instead named president and chief creative officer, a newly created position. The decision has raised questions about whether Disney’s leadership transition will truly mark a clean break or repeat past mistakes.

Peltz pointed to Disney’s troubled last succession as a warning. In early 2020, Iger handed the CEO job to Bob Chapek, another parks executive, just weeks before the COVID-19 pandemic shook the company.

Iger remained as executive chairman, which led to overlapping authority and internal tension.

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Disney Board Defends Succession

Chapek’s short tenure was marked by clashes with talent, employee unrest, political backlash in Florida, and growing losses in streaming. In November 2022, Disney’s board fired Chapek and brought Iger back as CEO.

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According to Peltz, history could repeat itself. He predicted that Iger may later claim D’Amaro lacks movie business experience and step in again to “guide” the company. Disney has not commented on Peltz’s latest remarks.

The Disney board, however, has defended the new plan. Board chairman James Gorman said the succession process was handled carefully and unanimously approved.

He noted that D’Amaro has spent years on Iger’s operating committee and has worked closely with film leaders, including helping bring major franchises like Avatar into Disney’s parks.

Peltz has been a vocal critic of Disney for years. Through his hedge fund, Trian Fund Management, he built a large stake in the company in late 2022 and launched multiple proxy fights, arguing Disney lost focus and failed at leadership planning.

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After losing a high-profile shareholder vote in April 2024, Peltz sold his entire Disney stake for a significant profit.

Originally published on vcpost.com

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Samsung Stock Leaps By Most Since 2008

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Leading the charge was index heavyweight Samsung Electronics, which surged more than 11%. Samsung is the world’s top memory-chip maker and a leading smartphone producer.

Tuesday marked Samsung’s biggest one-day gain since October 2008, as the global financial crisis roiled world markets.

A U.S. exchange-traded fund tracking Korean shares, the iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY), gained about 4% in Tuesday morning trading.

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This article was written by

Manika is a macroeconomist with over 20 years of experience in industries including investment management, stock broking, investment banking. She also runs the profile Long Term Tips [LTT], which focuses on the generational opportunity in the green economy. Her investing group, Green Growth Giants, takes the theme a step further from LTT with a deeper dive into opportunities presented by the segment.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, but may initiate a beneficial Long position through a purchase of the stock, or the purchase of call options or similar derivatives in MO over the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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