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How Today’s Economy Rhymes With The Late ’90s

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Bryan Rich is a macro investor and the founder of Logic Fund Management, an independent research firm known for connecting policy, investor influence, and innovation to real-world positioning. He writes Pro Perspectives, a concise daily briefing read by more than 25,000 investors who want clean signal over noise. Bryan’s framework is practical and repeatable: tracking the policy path (rates, liquidity, industrial strategy), following where elite capital is taking risk (billionaires and activists with operating influence), and mapping the technology cycle (compute, data, energy). From that, he translates big forces into entry points, catalysts, and portfolio construction. Logic Fund Management offers two specialized subscription-based strategies: The Billionaires Portfolio—event-driven value, investing in companies with unlockable assets, activist alignment, and clear catalysts; and the AI-Innovation Portfolio—ownership in the infrastructure and intelligence layer of the AI economy, from data centers and networking to enabling software and robotics. Bryan began his career on the trading desk of a family-office macro fund in the mid-90s, and later at an award-nominated global macro firm. He is known for a plain-English style that blends institutional discipline with real-world execution. Independent. Aligned. Research-driven.

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FTSE 100 Drops 1.25% as Middle East Tensions and BoE Rate Worries Erase Much of Thursday’s Sharp Rally

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Tesla's robotaxi launch in Texas comes as Elon Musk focuses on his business ventures following his stint in Washington

LONDON — Britain’s benchmark FTSE 100 index fell 1.25% to 10,681.30 on Friday, down 134.84 points, giving back a substantial portion of the previous session’s sharp rally as renewed concerns over instability in the Middle East and the Bank of England’s future interest rate path weighed on investor sentiment.

Friday’s decline followed a strong session Thursday, when the FTSE 100 closed 1.2% higher at 10,816.14 after the Bank of England kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged and announced it would pause gilt sales for six months while halting sales of long-dated gilts entirely. That combination of measures pushed long-dated gilt yields sharply lower, fueling a rally that analysts described as carrying genuine macroeconomic support rather than reflecting purely technical trading factors.

The rally proved short-lived. The index opened Friday roughly 0.3% lower at 10,785 before losses deepened through the session, ultimately dragging the FTSE 100 down by more than 1% by the time markets closed for the week. The reversal came even as several underlying economic indicators pointed in a more encouraging direction. UK retail sales volumes rose 0.5% on a month-over-month basis in August, comfortably beating economist forecasts for a 0.2% decline, and were up 2.4% compared with a year earlier, following a 0.5% annual decline in July. Oil prices also fell sharply, with Brent crude dropping more than 2% to $102.54 a barrel, a decline that would typically be expected to ease inflation concerns and support risk appetite.

Despite that positive backdrop on paper, investors focused instead on a mix of geopolitical and monetary policy concerns that outweighed the encouraging economic data. Instability tied to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East continued to weigh on sentiment, while renewed scrutiny of the Bank of England’s policy stance following Thursday’s decision added a further layer of caution heading into the weekend. Banking and energy stocks led Friday’s declines, dragging the broader index lower even as the retail sales and oil price data offered some partial offsetting support.

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At the center of the market’s attention was the split nature of Thursday’s Bank of England decision. The central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee voted 6-3 to hold its benchmark Bank Rate steady at 3.75%, with three committee members instead favoring an immediate 25 basis point increase. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey signaled that further tightening remains firmly on the table if inflationary pressures persist, saying monetary policy might have to be tightened further should current pressures continue. UK inflation stood at 3.1% in August, and the central bank has expressed specific concern that continued instability in the Middle East could add further upward pressure on energy prices, complicating its broader effort to bring inflation back toward target.

That tension between the central bank’s decision to hold rates steady, paired with a clear signal that further tightening remains possible, appeared to leave investors uncertain about the near-term policy outlook, contributing to Friday’s pullback even as the underlying gilt market measures announced alongside Thursday’s rate decision continued to support lower long-dated borrowing costs.

Friday’s session extended what has been a notably volatile month for UK equities more broadly. The FTSE 100 has swung sharply in both directions throughout September, with individual sessions producing moves well in excess of 1% in either direction as investors have weighed shifting expectations around global interest rates, fluctuating oil prices tied to the Middle East conflict, and broader uncertainty around the pace of artificial intelligence infrastructure spending that has periodically rattled global technology markets over the same period.

Beyond the domestic monetary policy debate, Friday’s trading session unfolded against a broader backdrop of global political developments. Reports indicated the U.S. Congress had passed sanctions legislation targeting Russia, with President Donald Trump still weighing whether to sign the measure, a development that carried potential implications for global energy markets given Russia’s role as a major oil and gas exporter. Separately, voting was underway in Russia’s parliamentary elections, while large-scale protests continued across Iran amid the broader regional conflict, developments that collectively added to the geopolitical uncertainty weighing on risk sentiment across European markets Friday.

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For UK investors, the coming weeks are likely to bring continued focus on whether incoming inflation data supports the Bank of England’s decision to hold rates steady, or whether the three dissenting committee members who favored an immediate increase prove to have the better read on the economy’s trajectory. Bailey’s own comments suggested the central bank views the current pause as conditional rather than settled policy, leaving open the possibility of a rate increase at a future meeting should inflationary pressures, particularly those tied to energy costs stemming from the Middle East conflict, fail to ease in the months ahead.

With Friday’s pullback erasing much of Thursday’s gains, the FTSE 100 heads into the weekend having posted a choppy but still moderately positive week overall, leaving investors to weigh whether the index’s recent volatility reflects a market still searching for direction amid competing macroeconomic crosscurrents, or the early stages of a more sustained repricing tied to the Bank of England’s evolving stance on interest rates.

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FCA rules not a barrier

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FCA rules not a barrier

The Financial Conduct Authority has found “no evidence” that its own regulation is a major barrier to small and medium-sized businesses raising money, in a review published yesterday that instead pointed to low awareness of funding options, complex products and commission-driven incentives in the unregulated end of the lending market.

“We found no evidence that FCA regulation is a major barrier to SME access to finance. Nonetheless, SMEs face challenges accessing finance on both the demand-side and supply-side,” the review said.

The regulator launched the review in March into why UK small and medium-sized enterprises were taking out fewer loans than businesses in other countries, and whether its own rules were contributing to the problem.

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It drew on evidence from small businesses, lenders and representative organisations, and found that many entrepreneurs were unaware of the different types of finance available. Others struggled to compare alternative providers or found the process too complicated. The FCA said the challenges were most acute for microbusinesses, which it said account for 95.5 per cent of all SMEs.

Commercial finance brokers play a large role in Britain’s small business lending market, connecting companies with banks and alternative lenders. But the FCA found that, in unregulated parts of the alternative lending market, commission-based incentives for brokers could steer very small businesses towards high-cost, short-term loans that were ill-suited to their needs. “This lending generally falls outside our perimeter,” the FCA said.

The findings echoed some of the issues identified in an investigation by The Times this week, which found that opaque commission arrangements and limited regulation were giving some brokers an incentive to sell expensive debt without disclosing their fees. The Times Entrepreneurs Network reported that one business, Pixapro, had taken about £1.4m of high-interest debt across 15 funding facilities, with average annual percentage rates of about 20 per cent.

Personal guarantees, which lenders routinely ask for, could also deter business owners who were reluctant to put their personal assets at risk, the watchdog said. Under some loan agreements, owners could become personally liable if their company defaulted, putting their homes at risk.

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The review found that “underserved founders”, including female, disabled and ethnic minority entrepreneurs, and businesses outside London and the southeast, “face disproportionate difficulties securing credit and accessing investor networks”. Separate analysis published this month found that outstanding high street bank lending to smaller companies across Great Britain fell by £26.8bn between 2022 and 2025.

Most commercial lending falls outside consumer protection rules and beyond the FCA’s powers. The regulator set out its next steps aimed at cutting some of the barriers it identified.

It said it would deliver a “proportionate” regulatory regime as part of the Treasury’s reform of the Consumer Credit Act. Some small businesses are covered by consumer credit rules.

The FCA will publish a paper early next year outlining a regulatory framework for the first open finance scheme, which will prioritise SME lending. “Open finance presents a real opportunity to address challenges in SME lending, particularly where limited financial information or credit histories make it difficult for lenders to assess risk,” the report said.

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“We’re focusing on where we can make a practical difference by reducing unnecessary friction,” said Graeme Reynolds, the FCA’s director of competition.

Aysha Fernandes, director of commercial finance at UK Finance, which represents more than 300 companies, welcomed the findings. “The report identifies a number of practical areas where further progress can be made, including Consumer Credit Act reform, digital verification and the development of open finance,” she said.

The trade body is developing a voluntary digital verification service alongside banks and building societies to reduce duplication in applications for SMEs and lenders.

Responsible Finance, the trade body for community development financial institutions, is among those calling for tighter regulation of the alternative lending market.

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Ministers were due to meet senior bank executives over small business lending in May 2025 amid concerns about access to credit and account closures. In October 2025 the Bank of England said its financial policy committee was identifying barriers that prevented high-growth businesses from accessing finance, and a review by the Department for Business said the cost of money was “prohibitively high” for many businesses.

Amy Ingham
About the author

Amy Ingham

Amy Ingham is a reporter at Business Matters, covering UK business news with a focus on breaking news, business policy, late payments and insolvency. She joined the magazine in 2026 after completing the NCTJ Diploma in Journalism at Harlow College’s journalism school. Her recent reporting includes British Steel’s nationalisation and its impact on SME suppliers, the decline in late payments by large firms, and Insolvency Service director disqualifications. Reach her at aingham@cbmeg.co.uk.

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Warren Buffett steps down as Berkshire chairman, son Howard succeeds

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Warren Buffett steps down as Berkshire chairman, son Howard succeeds

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Xenon Pharmaceuticals Reports Side Effects For Bread-And-Butter Drug; Biotech Stock Crashes

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Xenon Pharmaceuticals Reports Side Effects For Bread-And-Butter Drug; Biotech Stock Crashes

Xenon Pharmaceuticals (XENE) voluntarily halted enrollment in a handful of studies Friday due to several unexpected side effects. The biotech stock crashed to a six-month low. The drug at the center of the debacle is azetukalner, which Xenon is hoping will soon gain approval to treat epilepsy. Xenon stock shot 50% higher on March 9 following positive results for azetukalner…

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StealthGas: Cheap For A Reason, But The Setup May Be Changing

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StealthGas: Cheap For A Reason, But The Setup May Be Changing

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e.l.f. Beauty's Momentum Fatigue Triggers Attractive Dip Buying Opportunity

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Wall Street Lunch: Dow Plunges 1,200 Points Before Dip-Buyers Pitch In

e.l.f. Beauty's Momentum Fatigue Triggers Attractive Dip Buying Opportunity

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Concentrix: This AI Bargain Stock Could Be The Ultimate Value Trap – Strong Sell (CNXC)

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Executive tracking consumer review metrics and high customer satisfaction scores

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Investing wisely does not have to be rocket science. It is about discipline and running the numbers. You don’t have to be like a grandmaster chess player playing the game twenty moves ahead of your opponent, you just need to understand how the pieces work.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Two leading Cardiff firms relocate from the Bay to the city centre

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Gambit and Acuity Law have moved into the 3 Callaghan Square office scheme

3 Callaghan Square.

Two of Wales’ leading professional advisory firms have moved from Cardiff Bay to the centre of the city to support their respective growth plans.

Boutique corporate finance venture firm Gambit and Acuity Law have relocated to the 3 Callaghan Square office scheme, owned by Cardiff-based property developer Rightacres Property.

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The firms were both located at the 3 Assembly Square office building in the Bay, but utilised respective lease break clauses to move.

Acuity Law said its relocation follows strong trading with revenues on track to exceed £20m in its current financial year.

Steve Berry, chairman of Acuity Law, said:“Our move to 3 Callaghan Square is a clear, visible sign of how far this firm has come, and the scale of our ambition for what comes next.

2In a world being reshaped by technology and AI, we’re continuing to challenge the traditional ways legal services are delivered. That’s helping us win new clients, attract great people and compete on a national stage.”

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Gareth Baker, senior partner, added: “We also see real opportunity ahead: in energy, as investment in infrastructure and the transition to a lower-carbon economy continues at pace; in banking and finance, as businesses navigate a changing funding and investment landscape; and in health and social care, where providers and investors are adapting to major regulatory change.”

On its new location he added: “The new all-electric office space delivered by Rightacres provides us with a great base for our staff and clients and is well connected with our other Acuity offices”

Acuity also has offices in Bristol, Swansea, London and Liverpool.

Gambit said its move to larger offices follows its most successful trading period last year following its establishment 1992.

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It continues to expands its team advising on a significant number of high-profile business transactions across the UK and internationally.

Partner Geraint Rowe said: “Our new Cardiff office at Callaghan Square places us closer to many of our clients, peers and the wider professional community, enabling us to foster even stronger relationships while remaining ideally positioned to support businesses throughout the UK and internationally.”

Partner Jason Evans added: “This move reflects the continued growth and ambition of the firm following a record year for Gambit. The new office provides a modern, collaborative environment for our expanding team and represents an exciting investment in the next stage of the firm’s development.”

Other tenants at 3 Callaghan Square include JLL and Grant Thornton.

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Penn Entertainment: The Redemption Story That Wall Street Is Mispricing (NASDAQ:PENN)

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Investing wisely does not have to be rocket science. It is about discipline and running the numbers. You don’t have to be like a grandmaster chess player playing the game twenty moves ahead of your opponent, you just need to understand how the pieces work.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Lucid: Implications Of The Bolt Deal

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Lucid Motors Headquarters

Lucid: Implications Of The Bolt Deal

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