Stripping out bonuses, wage growth stood at 3.5 per cent the ONS said
Wage growth surpassed expectations as pay settlements in the public sector significantly outpaced those in the private sector, according to newly released figures. Official data has revealed that wage growth, inclusive of bonuses, hit 4.1 per cent between April and June, against a market forecast of four per cent.
This nonetheless fell short of the 4.3 per cent recorded in the previous month. Stripping out bonuses, pay growth stood at 3.5 per cent, which also marginally exceeded the projections of City economists and investors.
The stronger-than-anticipated pay growth was, however, predominantly driven by the public sector. Average earnings growth reached 5.5 per cent in the public sector, compared with just 2.9 per cent in the private sector, as reported by City AM.
“The labour market picture is little changed overall, with some softening still evident,” said Liz McKeown, director of economic statistics at the ONS.
“Private sector pay growth has continued to ease, while public sector pay growth remains elevated due to the timing of the latest NHS pay awards.”
The ONS further estimated that the unemployment rate held steady at 4.9 per cent, exceeding economists’ projections.
This coincided with the number of payrolled employees rising by 3,000 between April and May, though remaining approximately 85,000 below figures recorded a year earlier.
Meanwhile, the number of vacancies fell by 6,000 to 707,000, representing its lowest point in over five years. “The latest decrease was driven mainly by smaller businesses, which cite labour and operating costs as reasons for not hiring new staff or replacing leavers,” McKeown added.
Fresh data could signal troubled times ahead for the UK economy, with the Bank of England and City economists warning that the labour market may deteriorate later this year.
The Bank has forecast the unemployment rate to reach 5.2 per cent, while more pessimistic projections place the peak closer to 5.5 per cent. Subdued wage growth and increasing unemployment could alleviate concerns that the Bank is poised to raise interest rates in response to the energy price shock stemming from ongoing trade disruption across the Middle East.
The Conservative opposition is stepping up its pressure on the Labour government over job losses.
Under a new pledge described as a “benefit of Brexit“, the party has announced it would scrap EU regulations governing young people’s capacity to work.
Rules requiring 16 and 17-year-olds to take a rest period of 48 consecutive hours in any given week would be abolished, while young people would also be permitted to work later into the night at weekends during term time and at any hour outside of term time.
Party officials stated they were drawing upon findings from the Alan Milburn review on Neets, young people not in employment, education or training. The paper by Milburn found that work for young people helped “build on confidence, learn the habits of work and show employers what they could do”, though opportunities to do so had since ended.



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