Greater Manchester Chamber and Growth Company say there are positive signs in manufacturing but warn on demand dip
Greater Manchester’s economy is staying resilient but seeing only low levels of growth, new figures have shown.
Greater Manchester Chamber of Commerce’s latest Quarterly Economic Survey (QES) showed a slight weakening in the local economy. Its headline Greater Manchester Index fell from 15 in the first quarter of the year to 13 in Q2.
Firms polled said they had been affected by dips in domestic demand and advance orders, while the service sector had seen a decline and construction had seen two consecutive quarters of contraction. Service exports also fell, but manufacturing exports rose as that sector showed some positivity.
The QES figures were revealed at the Greater Manchester Business Index event, held by the Chamber and the Growth Company at The Manchester College’s City Campus.
Subrahmaniam Krishnan-Harihara, director of business policy and research at the Chamber, said: “The key issue is that we’ve had a long period of low-level economic growth. We’re not heading towards a recession, but we do have a consistently low level of economic growth. The services-driven decline we’re seeing signals softer consumer spending but there’s been no collapse in manufacturing and construction activity is still resilient.”
He added: “The Greater Manchester Index has weakened since the last quarter. There’s no crash but it has certainly weakened compared with the last figure. The Index has been consistently hovering around the 13 to 15 mark.”
Mr Krishnan-Harihara said manufacturing had seen growth, while the Chamber’s Construction Pipeline Analysis showed £35bn of projects were planned over the next five years in Greater Manchester.
He added: “Optimism in manufacturing and construction has gone up. Nationally construction is under stress but there is resilience in Greater Manchester. There is some good news about business resilience in the figures, but we need business investment to pick up as we can’t just rely on consumer spending.”
Mr Krishnan-Harihara said the rise in the Retail Sales Index from April to May showed people were continuing to spend, but warned consumer confidence was weakening.
He said: “Many of the services sub-sectors, such as defence and health, are reliant on public sector spending but we can’t rely too much on that during times of financial stress.
“The key challenge for the new Prime Minister is: where will all the investment funding come from?”
At the QES event, Rupert Greenhalgh, head of business intelligence at The Growth Company, discussed what his organisation’s research revealed about the Greater Manchester economy.
He said: “There’s no material impact from the Middle East conflict in the figures but longer term it will wash through. In manufacturing the big concern is future orders, and we will probably start to see more stress in that area.
“Uncertainty about hiring means that the number of job vacancies in Greater Manchester is at its lowest level in five years. We’re nowhere near a recession but there’s nothing to shout about in terms of growth.”




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