Business
Market has already priced in plenty of negativity; outlook looks promising: Prashant Khemka
Uncertainty is a Constant, Not an Exception
Khemka dismissed the notion that the current environment is unusually uncertain, saying every market cycle has its own set of fears.
“I have been investing in Indian markets, or markets in general, for much longer. I do not recollect a point in time when there were no uncertainties or concerns. The closest the market came to having no concerns was during the peaks of the 2007 bubble, the 2000 bubble, or the 1992 bubble. It is only closer to the peak that you see fewer concerns.”
He noted that concerns evolve with time, but markets eventually move on.
“We have forgotten most of those matters. People were worried about Grexit, then Brexit, and later tariffs. COVID was obviously very serious. Right now, the concerns and uncertainties we are talking about will not even be remembered in a few months’ time. Certainly, by next year, they will disappear.”
According to Khemka, the correction from the September 2024 peak, combined with the cost of equity and the time value of money, effectively reflects a much steeper adjustment than headline index levels suggest.
“The market is down from its September 2024 peak by a mid-to-high single-digit percentage. Add another 5% to 7% for the time value of money and the cost of equity, and it is equivalent to a decline of more than 25%. I feel that already builds in a lot of negativity and pessimism. I feel very good about making money from here on.”
No Bubble in India, Says Khemka
Responding to concerns about elevated valuations, Khemka said India is not experiencing a market bubble.
“I would say there is no bubble in India. One can ask whether AI is a bubble globally or not. Only in hindsight does one know whether it was a bubble. But in India, there is no bubble because there is not much that is tied to AI.”
He explained that creating new highs is simply part of the market’s long-term behaviour.
“It is in the nature of the market to create new highs all the time. Over anybody’s investing journey, there would be thousands of new highs. A new high does not necessarily mean the market is overvalued.”
Sideways Phase May Eventually Give Way to an Uptrend
Khemka believes Indian equities have largely been moving sideways for nearly two years, rather than being in a sustained bear market.
“Sometimes markets are rallying, sometimes they are declining, and sometimes they move sideways. We have been in a sideways market for the last 21 months or so. Yes, I would like to see the market eventually trend upwards. It does not necessarily go in a straight line. There will be some ups and downs, but a gradual upward trend would obviously be the desirable outcome.”
Foreign Investors Remain Deeply Pessimistic
Khemka pointed out that foreign institutional investors remain far more negative on India than domestic investors, describing current sentiment as one of the weakest he has witnessed.
“Among foreign investors, the pessimism towards India, on a relative basis, is higher than at any point I have seen during my 20 years of professionally managing India money.”
He clarified that the pessimism is relative to other global equity markets rather than reflecting a broad risk-off environment.
“Emerging market fund managers are substantially underweight India. India is one of the most underweight countries in emerging market portfolios, reflecting that pessimism.”
Domestic Investors Less Optimistic, But Not Bearish
While domestic investor confidence has weakened from last year’s highs, Khemka believes it has not reached extreme levels.
“Today, the sentiment among domestic investors is weaker than it was 12 months ago. I would not call it peak pessimism, but it is definitely weaker. If pessimism is at one end and optimism at the other, I would say sentiment today is below average and tilted more towards pessimism than optimism, but far from the peak pessimism that global investors currently have.”
Long-Term Opportunity Amid Weak Sentiment
Khemka’s assessment suggests that weak investor sentiment—particularly among foreign investors—may itself present an opportunity. While acknowledging that uncertainties remain, he believes markets have already discounted much of the bad news. In his view, periods marked by widespread caution often lay the groundwork for stronger long-term returns rather than signalling the end of the investment cycle.
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Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, but may initiate a beneficial Long position through a purchase of the stock, or the purchase of call options or similar derivatives in ITWO over the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
The company said the transition marks a significant milestone in strengthening alignment with parent entity BSE Ltd and reinforces its role within the broader BSE ecosystem.
BSECL will continue to provide clearing, settlement and risk management services across the equity, equity derivatives, currency derivatives, debt, commodity, mutual fund, electronic gold receipt (EGR) and securities lending and borrowing (SLB) segments, among others.
The company said it remains committed to ensuring financial market stability, efficient collateral management and the highest standards of regulatory compliance as mandated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI).
“The transition from ICCL to BSE Clearing Limited reflects our strong alignment with the BSE brand and our role as a trusted pillar of India’s financial market infrastructure. Over the years, we have built robust clearing, settlement, and risk management capabilities that support market integrity and investor confidence,” said Vaisshali Babu, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of BSE Clearing Limited.
“As we embark on this new chapter, we remain steadfast in our commitment to operational excellence and regulatory compliance while supporting the long-term resilience of India’s capital markets,” she added.
According to the release, the rebranding will have no impact on the corporation’s operations, legal obligations, contracts or service commitments towards members, participants and stakeholders.All existing agreements, memberships and regulatory registrations will continue without interruption, the company said.
BSE, Asia’s oldest stock exchange, is also the world’s largest exchange by number of listed companies. Over the years, it has played a key role in the development of India’s capital markets and serves as a major platform for companies raising capital. Its benchmark index, the Sensex, is widely tracked by domestic and global investors as a gauge of Indian equity market performance.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
The growing push to restrict Americans from using federal food aid to buy certain processed or sugary products is creating a new challenge for some of the biggest U.S. food and beverage companies.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture as of May had approved food restriction waivers for Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits in 23 states, affecting roughly one-third of all SNAP participants, according to Numerator. The research firm estimates the restrictions could reduce food and beverage sales by as much as $830 million this year as consumers either shift spending to approved products or cut back overall.
Kroger CEO Greg Foran said on the company’s first-quarter earnings call on Thursday that customers remain under pressure in part due to reduced SNAP benefits, as well as higher gas prices, “squeezing budgets.”
“Customers are managing spend carefully and shopping with real intent,” Foran said.
Most waivers focus on limiting consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages and confectionery products, signaling a targeted approach rather than broad food restrictions. As the movement spreads, it’s forcing major packaged food companies to monitor shopper behavior and assess whether they need to remake product lines — though many of them have already been changing what they offer after consumer habits shifted in recent years.
Iowa recently became the first state to codify elements of the “Make America Healthy Again,” or MAHA, movement into law, approving legislation that targets artificial food dyes, ultra-processed foods in school and purchases made through SNAP.
“Altogether, this bill advances the health and wellness for every Iowan today and for generations to come,” said Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds when she signed the measure last month.
She added the law helps “refocus federal food assistance programs on the actual purpose for which they were created: helping low-income families afford nutritious food.”
Attendees are greeted with”Eat Real Food” placards as they gather for U.S. Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins to announce new nutrition policies at the Department of Health and Human Services in Washington, D.C., U.S., January 8, 2026.
Jonathan Ernst | Reuters
The law bans several synthetic dyes, including Red 40 and Yellow 5, from most K-12 school meals and vending machines, while also restricting SNAP recipients from using benefits to buy products such as soda and candy.
Navigating the MAHA era
Many food companies aren’t waiting to see how policies evolve.
At a Goldman Sachs conference in May, Hershey said it has researchers in Texas conducting in-store interviews with shoppers who receive SNAP benefits to understand how purchasing behavior is shifting under new restrictions in the state.
“We’ve observed some consumer uncertainty at the register as new restrictions take effect,” a Hershey spokesperson told CNBC. “We anticipate this will improve as store execution improves, rules become clearer, and SNAP users can plan and budget with more certainty.”
The company is studying everything from product substitutions to budget tradeoffs, offering an early glimpse into how major food manufacturers are preparing for a potentially significant shift in consumer demand.
Many of the products most exposed to the changes are produced by some of the largest companies in the industry like Kraft Heinz, PepsiCo, Coca-Cola, General Mills, Nestle and others.
J.M. Smucker CEO Mark Smucker, however, told CNBC he expects the SNAP policy changes to have a more muted impact.
“I would say the current environment isn’t really that different than what we’ve seen over time, and thus far some of the modifications have really had no meaningful impact to our business,” he said.
Still, the company’s Hostess products like Twinkies and Donettes — the latter of which saw net sales grow 13% in the latest quarter, according to the company — may be impacted under broader state restrictions on “highly processed snacks.”
Current SNAP waivers in states like Texas focus primarily on candy and sugary drinks, not snack cakes. However, some states have proposed broader definitions that could eventually encompass packaged desserts and sweet baked goods.
At the same time, fewer Americans are even receiving the benefits. One analysis estimates 3.5 million people have lost their SNAP aid since President Donald Trump last year signed a sweeping bill that restricts eligibility for SNAP, among other changes.
Many U.S. households have found it harder to pay for groceries following the changes. The restrictions have also meant fewer dollars flowing to major businesses.
Walmart is particularly exposed to SNAP spending, capturing roughly a quarter of all SNAP grocery dollars nationwide, according to Numerator. Kroger, Costco and Amazon follow at about 8%, 6% and 5%, respectively.
The curbs on what consumers can buy with federal assistance are only one shift food companies are watching.
At a hearing of the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions in April, Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. went as far as to say he “would support” a ban on junk-food television advertising. The department has not yet taken steps to introduce such a ban.
Responding both to Kennedy’s MAHA initiative and shifting consumer tastes, food manufacturers have also accelerated efforts to reformulate products and reduce synthetic ingredients in products like Kool-Aid, Fanta, Doritos and Flamin’ Hot Cheetos, which contain dyes like Red 40 and Yellow 5.
General Mills, Kraft Heinz and Target have all pledged to phase out certain artificial colors and additives by 2027 or sooner.
Nestle announced Monday it achieved its commitment on time to fully eliminate Food, Drug & Cosmetic colors from its U.S. food and beverage portfolio.
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A total of 16 stock market holidays have been scheduled for 2026, out of which nine have already passed.
Following next week’s closure, the next market holiday will fall on Monday, September 14, for Ganesh Chaturthi. In the second half of the year, markets will also remain closed on October 2 for Gandhi Jayanti, October 20 for Dussehra, November 10 for Diwali Balipratipada, November 24 for Guru Nanak Jayanti and December 25 for Christmas, which will be the final market holiday of 2026.
Will MCX be closed?
Meanwhile, Multi Commodity Exchange of India will remain closed during the morning session on June 26 but will resume trading in the evening session. According to MCX’s annual trading calendar, the exchange has 16 trading holidays in 2026, with either partial or full-day closures.
The National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited will remain shut for both trading sessions on the same day.
Stock Market Holidays 2026
In 2026, four key holidays fall on weekends and therefore will not lead to additional market closures. These include Mahashivratri on February 15 and Eid-Ul-Fitr on March 21, both of which have already passed, along with Independence Day on August 15 and Diwali Laxmi Pujan on November 8.
Diwali Laxmi Pujan will fall on a Sunday this year, though exchanges will conduct the customary Muhurat Trading session on November 8. The timings for the special one-hour session will be announced closer to the date. Independence Day, meanwhile, falls on a Saturday.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
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