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No let up in war & rhetoric, a break of 22,900 can take Nifty to 22,500

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No let up in war & rhetoric, a break of 22,900 can take Nifty to 22,500
Fresh threats from Iran and a hardening stance by US President Donald Trump over the Strait of Hormuz have deepened investor nervousness, keeping markets on edge. Analysts said Nifty is likely to remain volatile, with the index holding key support around 22,900 but facing the risk of a decline towards 22,500 if tensions intensify. While the benchmark ended about half a percent higher at 23,114 on Friday after a sharp 3.3% drop the previous day, the near-term outlook remains fragile, with upside seen capped in the 23,400–24,200 range.

TANMAY SHAH
RESEARCH HEAD, SIHL

Where is Nifty headed this week?
The market is at an inflection point. Technically, the index found strong support near the 22,930 mark last week, where it filled an unaddressed gap from the previous year. This zone coincides with the formation of a double-bottom pattern, indicating a potential base formation. The near-term bias appears cautiously positive. Nifty is likely to gravitate towards the 24,050–24,200 zone during the week, provided global cues remain stable. However, 22,900 remains a critical support level. A decisive close below this level would negate the bullish structure and trigger a sharper downside move towards 22,222. Trading Strategy: Recommend a Bull Call spread to position for a near-term upside. Traders may consider buying the 23,300 Call and selling the 23,800 Call of March 31 expiry. The strategy offers a favourable risk-reward with limited downside, while capturing gains if Nifty trends higher towards the upper resistance zone. It is well suited for a moderately bullish view amid improving technical setup.

TOP STOCK BETS

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NMDC: CMP Rs 79.7 | Stop loss Rs 77.5 | Target Rs 84–89
Showing relative strength in a weak market, the stock is holding above its 20-week moving average, signalling a bullish bias with scope for fresh longs.


Power Grid Corporation: CMP Rs 297.6 | Stop loss Rs 290 | Target Rs 314–319
Decisively moved above its 200- DMA after nearly a year, signalling a potential trend reversal and renewed strength, with the setup favouring fresh long positions.
SUDEEP SHAH
VICE PRESIDENT & HEAD OF TECHNICAL AND DERIVATIVE RESEARCH, SBI SECURITIES

Where is Nifty headed this week?
Technically, the trend remains weak, with Nifty trading below key averages and RSI near oversold levels. Three successive rebounds were swiftly sold into, underscoring bearish dominance. Going ahead, 22,850–22,800 zone will act as immediate support. A sustained breach below this level could accelerate the decline towards 22,500. On the upside, 23,420–23,460 zone is likely to act as stiff resistance, with any pullback expected to face selling pressure.

Trading Strategy: The recommended Nifty options strategy for the March 24 expiry is a Put Spread, suited for a moderately bearish outlook. The trader buys one lot of the 23,100 strike Puts at a premium of Rs 210–215 and sells one lot of the 22,900 strike Puts at Rs 138–142.

This strategy limits both risk and reward. The breakeven point is 23,030. The maximum loss is Rs 4,500 if Nifty does not fall below 23,030, while the maximum profit is Rs 8,500 if Nifty closes at 22,900 or below on expiry.

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TOP STOCK BETS
JB Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals: CMP Rs 2,138 | Stop loss Rs 2,030 | Target Rs 2,260–2,280

In a steady uptrend, the stock is trading above key moving averages, with higher highs and higher lows signalling strengthening momentum.

Coal India: CMP Rs 468 | Stop loss Rs 447 | Target Rs 500–515

Trading near its 52-week high, the stock shows sustained strength and outperformance, with higher lows reinforcing a bullish trend.

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NAGARAJ SHETTI
SENIOR TECHNICAL RESEARCH ANALYST, HDFC SECURITIES

Where is Nifty headed this week?
The underlying trend of Nifty remains weak. The lack of strength in the upside bounce signals a possible breakdown of 22,900 support soon. On a breakdown, the next lower target is seen at 22,500. Immediate resistance is placed at 23,400.

Trading Strategy: The underlying trend remains weak. One may look to sell Nifty April futures and also sell on rises around 23,500 levels. Traders may also consider buying the 22,500 PE of April 7 expiry around Rs 260–230 for a potential downside towards 22,500. Short positions should be placed with a strict stop loss at Nifty spot 23,400.

TOP STOCKS BETS
West Coast Paper Mills: Buy at Rs 433| Stop loss Rs 414 | Target Rs 467 |

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Timeframe: 1 Week After a recent sharp upmove, the stock shows a bullish breakout pattern with rising volumes and strengthening RSI signalling positive momentum.

Varun Beverages: Sell at Rs 401.5 | CMP Rs 401.8 | Stop loss Rs 417 | Target Rs 375 |

Timeframe: 1 week In a down-trend with lower tops and bottoms, the stock has resumed its decline after forming a lower top at Rs 418, with weak volume and RSI signalling continued downside.

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Another $1.5b into health budget

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Another $1.5b into health budget

A further $1.5 billion will be spent on health infrastructure and the establishment of a new central coordination office as the Cook government pledges to “unlock” more than 900 hospital beds.

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Two industrial estate buildings set for approval at site focusing on nuclear and clean energy

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Leconfield Industrial Estate is key Cumberland ‘business cluster’

Two new buildings on a Cumbrian industrial estate could get the green light if the plans are approved next week.

The plans for two new buildings on a Cumbrian industrial estate (Image: ONE Environments via Cumberland Council planning application)

Two new buildings on a Cumbrian industrial estate could get the green light if the plans are approved this week.

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Members of Cumberland Council’s planning committee are due to meet at The Civic Centre in Carlisle on Wednesday to consider the application for two sites at Leconfield Industrial Estate in Cleator Moor.

It is proposed that they would be for general industrial and ancillary office use with 6,356 square metres floorspace and associated car parking, hard and soft landscaping, infrastructure and biodiversity enhancements.

The planning application is being placed before the committee because the site exceeds two hectares in area.

It is recommended that members approve planning permission subject to planning conditions and agree a legal agreement to secure:

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  • a Travel Plan monitoring fee of £6600;
  • a contribution of £74,032 towards the highway improvements at Moresby Road, Cleator Moor Road and Main Street; and
  • a contribution £30,039 towards the cost of junction improvement works at Cleator Moor Road and Overend Road.

According to the report Leconfield is an established industrial estate which comprises 17.6 hectares in area and is strategically located within Cleator Moor, between the town centre and the built-up area to the north-west.

It states: “It forms part of what is known as Cleator Moor Innovation Quarter (CMIQ), a ‘business cluster’ for the new nuclear and clean energy sectors, as a focus for collaboration, innovation and diversification.

“The estate currently accommodates some 20 industrial and warehouse units of varying sizes, a number of which are vacant.

“There are also several vacant or cleared plots. This established industrial estate has been in use since the 1940s and more recently has suffered from a period of decline.”

The application requests planning permission for two large buildings which will break down further into: Unit nine – four 658 square metre units, and Unit 12 – five 710 square metre units.

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It adds: “The intention is for businesses to grow and move nearby within the wider estate into larger more self-contained accommodation. Plots nine and 12 will be ‘Grow On’ units and will cater for businesses in their growth stages and are sized accordingly.”

To find all the planning applications, traffic diversions, road layout changes, alcohol licence applications and more in your community, visit the Public Notices Portal.

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Element 25 taps investors for $18m

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Element 25 taps investors for $18m

Osborne Park-based Element 25 has announced another capital raise in order to further expand its Butcherbird manganese project in the Pilbara.

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Oil shock threat looms over Dalal Street rally

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Oil shock threat looms over Dalal Street rally
India’s stock indices and its currency face reversal risks from last week’s relief-inducing firmness after the US threatened to blockade the Hormuz Strait following the breakdown of peace talks between the US and Iran, spotlighting the fragility of a truce that dictates oil prices and capital allocation.

Last week’s stock market rebound—the best over a seven-day period since February 2021–hinges on the broad direction of oil prices in the aftermath of seemingly inconclusive talks in Islamabad, although Reuters cited shipping data to report the passage Saturday of three fully laden super-tankers through the Strait of Hormuz that accounts for a fourth of the global oil trade. “The market would see a gap down opening, though there should not be panic,” said Sham Chandak, head of institutional equities at Elios Financial Services.

“The market will take cues from oil prices, which are at the centre of this conflict.”

Last week, India’s equity indices climbed 6%, snapping a relentless six-week losing run, after the announcement of two-week truce. Oil slumped below $100 a barrel to $95.2 Friday, having climbed to nearly $120 in the immediate aftermath of the war.

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For the currency, the bias would likely be weak, too. Stage-gated central bank curbs on speculative trading helped the rupee climb from record lows last week and those regulations could still provide the bulwark against a currency slide due to the oil prices, but the gains are expected to be capped if geopolitical concerns resurface.


The rupee’s upside may be capped in the 92.40/$ to 92.50/$ range in the absence of a further retreat in oil prices. On the downside, the central bank is expected to step up intervention around the 94.80/$ level, which is the currency’s record closing low.
‘TENTATIVE’
“Most avenues for speculative trades have been shut, so the market is now largely left with hedgers and market makers. That does make liquidity thinner, but at this point, stability is more important,” said Anindya Banerjee, head of commodity and currency, Kotak Securities.Banerjee expects meaningful intervention by the central bank at levels beyond 94.50/$, as these levels are psychologically very significant.

The rupee depreciated 10% in FY26, from 85.75/$ in April to close at 94.83/$ on March 31. The currency deprecated more than 4% in March alone, after the war started.

To curb the pace of deprecation, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) came up with two back-to-back circulars on March 27 and April 1, restricting arbitrage trades between offshore and onshore markets.

“Currently, the ‘tweet risk’ outweighs traditional risk concerns. Despite talks of a ceasefire, the absence of a definitive agreement continues to sustain uncertainty,” said Kunal Sodhani, head of treasury at Shinhan Bank India. “This is evident in crude oil prices, which remain elevated in the $95–$100 per barrel range instead of easing meaningfully.”

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‘ALL ISN’T LOST’
To be sure, market participants across asset classes expect the two-week time window to be fully utilised to hammer out a solution that is reasonably durable. “The market is cognisant of the fact that the current ceasefire expires on April 22. So there is still time for the parties involved to negotiate,” said Elios’ Chandak.

Some expect short sellers to return, pushing stock prices lower.

“The markets are expected to react negatively to the failure of talks and that is likely to imbue volatility,” said A Balasubramanian, managing director and CEO, Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC. “But typically, these dialogues involve a lot of back and forth and a strong outcome can’t be expected in a single day of talks.”

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Wall St ends mixed as investors parse Iran negotiations

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Wall St ends mixed as investors parse Iran negotiations

US stocks have closed ‌mixed, with investors pressing pause as they headed into the weekend and kept an eye on ongoing Middle East peace negotiations.

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Trump lashes out at Pope Leo over criticism of foreign policy

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Trump lashes out at Pope Leo over criticism of foreign policy

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Global banks play hedge card after RBI blow on rupee bets

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Global banks play hedge card after RBI blow on rupee bets
Some of the large foreign banks are trying a clever ploy to soften the blow from Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) sudden clampdown on speculative bets against the rupee.

They are understood to have passed off some of the arbitrage deals, which were hit by the recent regulatory directives, as transactions done to hedge the capital received from overseas parents, two persons told ET.

Arbitrage deals are cut to profit from price differences in the local foreign exchange forward market and the offshore market for non-deliverable forwards (NDFs).

Banks were forced to unwind these deals after the Indian regulator slapped a uniform limit of $100 mn on the net open position (NOP) a
bank can have onshore.

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However, some MNC banks are showing the capital that has come in earlier or flowed in recently from their head-offices as underliers for the onshore forward leg in the arbitrage deals. Thus, this buy-dollar forward contract with a proper underlier is shown as a transaction to cover the risk arising from a slide in the rupee – and not as any part of an arbitrage deal.


Foreign banks function as branches in India which are part of the global books. The capital coming in as dollars or euros into an MNC bank’s India operations, are converted into rupees to support and grow the business here.
“Technically, this may be a response to the NOP limit. But whether this explanation would stand regulatory scrutiny is unclear as RBI may tend to look into the timeline – when the capital came in, when the forward deals were struck, which of these are now claimed as hedges, how they were accounted for, etc. Also, are there communications between India and the HQ to back the explanation?” said another person.THE NDF DEALS
When the rupee comes under pressure, banks cut arbitrage deals by buying dollar forward in India and selling dollar forward in the NDF market which has been flourishing in London, Singapore, Hong Kong, and New York since the ‘90s when foreign portfolio managers,hedge funds and others explored ways to bet on the USD-INR rate following partial convertibility of the rupee.

Typically, when geopolitical turmoil and sell off by foreign funds pulls down INR, the USD trades a little stronger (and INR quotes a tad weaker) in NDF compared to the onshore market. So, the USD-INR rate is higher in NDF than the forward USDINR rates in India.
MNC and Indian banks cash in on this by buying USD in the onshore forward market, and simultaneously selling USD-INR in the NDF market. Forward contracts with tenures of one to three months are the most liquid.

RBI came down heavily as the banks with their arb deals were providing liquidity to hedge funds and other international speculators who were shorting the INR. When these players shorted INR, they went long on USD and therefore bought USD-INR forward contracts in NDF. Their counterparties were the Indian banks selling USDINR forwards in the NDF – the offshore leg in the two-legged arbitrage deals.

REGULATORY BYPASS
The central bank, which rushed in with restrictions in two phases, had also taken an exception to the practice of corporates in India, who cannot access the NDF, using banks to enter the offshore market. Since USD-INR was slightly higher in NDF, large corporate exporters would sign forward deals with banks in India which did a backto-back deal in the NDF market to offer the companies rates that are very close to the NDF rate – thus, allowing clients to convert more rupees from their export proceeds. This partly shifted liquidity from the onshore to offshore market.

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While a forex dealer or a corporate treasurer may find such company-bank-NDF deals kosher, legal practitioners would find them in violation of the central tenet of the Foreign Exchange Management Act: what cannot be done directly, cannot be done indirectly.

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IXN: Global Tech Leadership Remains, Eyeing A New Record High

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Workday: A Bad Narrative Creates A Bargain - 5 Reasons To Buy

IXN: Global Tech Leadership Remains, Eyeing A New Record High

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Karratha FIFO camp holds residential potential

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Karratha FIFO camp holds residential potential

The flexible design of a large modular camp on the outskirts of Karratha could lend itself to townhouse living.

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US Foods Holding: A Truly Defensive Winner Of The Trade-Down Economy

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US Foods Holding: A Truly Defensive Winner Of The Trade-Down Economy

US Foods Holding: A Truly Defensive Winner Of The Trade-Down Economy

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