Business
Oil Price Today (July 21): Crude oil dips below $90 on hopes of 10-day ceasefire in Iran war. What are experts saying?
Crude oil price on July 21
Brent crude futures slipped 35 cents, or 0.4%, to $88.87 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for September delivery was little changed at $82.47 a barrel. Both benchmarks remained below the more than one-month highs touched in the previous session.
On Monday, Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis announced plans to impose a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia, potentially opening another front against the U.S. in its conflict with Iran and increasing concerns over disruptions to global energy supplies and trade beyond the Gulf.
At the same time, a senior Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran had received a proposal from mediators for a 10-day ceasefire. The proposal is part of efforts to preserve the interim agreement signed on June 17, which was aimed at creating a pathway to a permanent deal to end the conflict that began on February 28 following U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran.
The diplomatic initiative came after another night of U.S. strikes on Iranian cities and retaliatory attacks by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards on U.S. military assets across the region. Later on Monday, U.S. Central Command said it had launched another round of strikes on Iran.
Also read: Relieved that crude has finally fallen? The real warning signs just began flashing elsewhere
What’s next?
Goldman Sachs said Brent crude could move above $110 a barrel in the fourth quarter if the recovery in Gulf oil exports remains delayed. However, the investment bank expects prices to fall back into the $60s by the end of the year if geopolitical tensions ease and production rebounds faster than expected.
“At the current point there are no signs of a ceasefire again. But in case there is a ceasefire immediately imposed, we don’t expect Brent oil prices to fall beyond $70 per barrel. It is likely to remain the lower support for the near term,” Pranav Mer, Senior Vice President, Currency and Commodity at JM Financial, told ETMarkets.
According to Anindya Banerjee, Head of Commodity Research at Kotak Securities, crude oil has once again begun pricing in geopolitical risks. “Any strike on major Gulf export infrastructure could force a retest of $95-100 and beyond,” he said.
Banerjee added that markets are reacting less to the military action itself and more to the diminishing chances of diplomacy. He said Tehran has laid down fresh conditions for resuming negotiations, with each new development pushing back the return of normal tanker movement through the Strait of Hormuz, where traffic has already remained well below pre-war levels.
Also read:Oil is crude once again! Is $95 the new normal and what it means for Indian investors?
Nuvama Institutional Equities warned that an extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz could disrupt nearly 20 million barrels a day of crude oil flows. Under such a scenario, the brokerage said oil prices could surge to between $110 and $150 a barrel.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
Manufacturers are tapping into interest in such benefits as focus, energy, protein and gut health.
The Conservation Council of WA has warned the Cliff Head oil field off Dongara could leave a $200 million cleanup bill, after both its owners entered administration.
Paladin Energy: A Big Opportunity, But An Expensive One
ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood joins ‘Mornings with Maria’ to discuss why she’s increasing investments in SpaceX and defense companies, how AI is transforming corporate America, the technology race with China, and her outlook for the U.S. economy.
ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood is defending her fund’s stake in SpaceX, declaring the aerospace and satellite network pioneer could become the “most important company in global history” despite the stock’s recent slide and an upcoming $116 billion share unlock.
During an interview on “Mornings with Maria” Wednesday, Wood explained why she remains bullish on SpaceX after funds managed by ARK Invest allocated $80 million to the position following its public debut.
“[Down] from its peak, it is,” Wood said, “but of course not from the IPO price. We think this could become the most important company in history, and I mean in global history.”
“We’re talking about not only really exploring a new world — the universe — in terms of its launch capabilities and helping others to do so as well, but also a global communications network. Really, think telecom, that’s been a very local business. In fact, the way to break into countries historically was to buy the [telecommunications companies], no longer.”
ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood doubled down on her bullish stance for SpaceX stock on FOX Business’ “Mornings with Maria.” (Getty Images)
Just before Wednesday’s opening bell, SpaceX stock was trading around $123.50 per share. According to Barron’s, the stock is down about 47% from its high of about $225, and has shed nearly $1.4 trillion in market value. This puts SpaceX in eighth place by market capitalization, behind Meta for the first time since its debut.
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Wood previously said in a May interview with Bloomberg that she imagines SpaceX will be “volatile,” but applauded founder Elon Musk’s “incredible” ability to vertically integrate all of his companies, including Tesla, xAI and Neuralink.
Musk warned investors against trying to short-sell the stock last week in a post on X, saying, “The survival probability of firms that maintain a significant short position in SpaceX over time is very low.”
Premier Roger Cook has reacted to Pauline Hanson’s wide-ranging speech in Perth on Tuesday, describing her comments about Australia’s energy future as illogical.
The former chief executive of Southern Water has been charged alongside three others over an alleged plan to manipulate water quality tests to avoid paying millions of pounds in penalties, it can now be reported.
Matthew Wright is accused of conspiring to defraud the Environment Agency (EA) and water regulator Ofwat between 2012 and 2017 along with Philip Barker, Clive Massey and Mark Gregory, who also worked at the company.
The EA previously asked a judge to issue a summons against Wright and the others charging them with the offence.
Wright’s solicitor said his client “denies all wrongdoing and has co-operated fully with the Environment Agency’s investigation”.
The summons was issued last year but Wright launched a legal challenge which was dismissed by two senior judges on Wednesday.
Wright’s lawyers told the High Court in June that the EA did not have the power to issue the summons and it should be thrown out.
But the judges dismissed his claim and ruled restrictions previously preventing reporting of the legal challenge should be lifted.
Separate court listings showed the case against 60-year-old Wright, of Haslemere, Surrey, Barker, 57, of West Chiltington, West Sussex, 64-year-old Massey, of Brandhill, Shropshire, and 63-year-old Gregory, of Southampton, were scheduled to be heard at Medway Magistrates’ Court on 14 July.
The four are accused of conspiring between 2012 and 2017 to defraud those conducting the environmental and financial regulation duties of Southern Water, including the EA and Ofwat, by “the implementation of artificial no-flow events at wastewater treatment works”.
The court listings show Southern Water has separately been charged with dozens of offences of failing to comply with or contravening an environmental permit condition between 2013 and 2017 at multiple wastewater treatment works.
Power Hedge has been covering both traditional and renewable energy since 2010. He targets primarily international companies of all sizes that hold a competitive advantage and pay dividends with strong yields.
He is the leader of the investing group Energy Profits in Dividends where he focuses on generating income through energy stocks and CEFs while managing risk through options. He also provides micro and macro-analysis of both domestic and international energy companie. Learn more.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
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