Paytm, MobiKwik, Pine Labs shares rally up to 6% after govt announces UPI fees above Rs 2,000. Why brokerages are bullish

In today’s early session, Paytm rose 6% to a day’s high of Rs 1,829 per share, while One MobiKwik Systems rose over 5% to Rs 213 on the BSE. Pine Labs gained nearly 3% to Rs 199 per share on the NSE.

The National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI) on Tuesday announced that the government will introduce MDR on some Person-to-Merchant (P2M) UPI transactions from October 15 onwards, with merchants paying 0.4% on transactions above Rs 2,000. The maximum fee that can be levied on such transactions will be Rs 300 for payments of Rs 75,000 or more.

Also read | UPI transactions above Rs 2,000 to attract 0.4% MDR; check key details

What new UPI charges mean for consumers?

It is important to note that consumers will not be charged for UPI payments, and Person-to-Person (P2P) transfers will remain free. Small merchants classified under the P2PM framework, including vendors that receive up to Rs 1 lakh a month through UPI QR codes, will continue to be exempt from MDR.

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Transactions worth up to Rs 2,000 will continue to carry zero charges and account for more than 95% of UPI’s P2M transaction volume, according to the FAQ released by the government. The NPCI clarified that MDR will be borne by merchants and cannot be passed on to customers. This implies that consumers will continue to pay the listed price when using UPI, with no separate transaction or platform fee imposed by UPI apps.

RBI backs MDR charges

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) backed the introduction of Merchant Discount Rate (MDR) on large-value UPI transactions, saying the move will help strengthen the long-term sustainability of India’s digital payments ecosystem. In a post on X, the central bank said the move would enable UPI to continue scaling, innovating and serving consumers and businesses across the country.The latest move comes after an amendment to the Payment and Settlement Systems Act, 2007, which provides a framework for imposing a Merchant Discount Rate (MDR) on payments through UPI and other notified electronic payment modes. The government, in a statement, explained the rationale for imposing charges, stating that with exponential transaction volumes, the system requires significant and continuous upgrades in cybersecurity, fraud prevention, and infrastructure.

Charges were required for market expansion and self-sustainability, it said, adding that it is necessary to increase competition by encouraging more companies to expand operations, which requires a self-sustaining revenue model. Reliance on subsidies alone is not viable for the next wave of growth, and a balanced framework is required to ensure that UPI remains robust, inclusive and future-ready, the statement further said.

Also read | UPI Charges Explained: Will you pay a fee for Rs 2,000+ UPI payments? Government clarifies what users need to know

‘Someone has to pay the cost’

For nearly seven years, UPI became more and more popular as a transaction could be made so quickly without paying any additional charges. The government has however, repeatedly clarified that UPI will remain free for citizens and person-to-person transactions will continue without charges.

While discussing the costs of digital-payment infrastructure, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra in August said, “Someone has to pay the cost”. He stressed that the RBI wants digital payments to remain accessible, affordable and safe, but also sustainable.

What lies ahead?

According to Bernstein, banks could receive about Rs 14,000 crore of this pool, while payment apps could earn around Rs 7,000 crore, and the network about Rs 1,000 crore. Emkay Global Research meanwhile said the latest move will likely benefit Paytm and Pine Labs, while maintaining its ‘Buy’ calls on the stocks and increasing target prices to Rs 2,400 and Rs 230 respectively.

“UPI acquiring now carries a commercial revenue model that is contractual, recurring, and scales with value, in place of a discretionary annual subsidy. This will make the payment business structurally self-sustaining, making the business model much more resilient,” the domestic brokerage said, adding that even on conservative assumptions, it estimates Paytm to generate UPI MDR revenue of Rs 1,120 crore in FY28, and expects Pine Labs to generate Rs 155 crore in the same year.

Bullish brokerage calls for Paytm share price

JM Financial also increased its target price for the shares of Paytm to Rs 2,150 apiece, implying more than 24% upside potential from the stock’s previous closing price, while maintaining its ‘Buy’ call on the stock. The notified MDR rate is materially above the 25 bps JM Financial had modelled in, but the carve-outs are also broader than assumed, forcing our hand to cut the eligible-GMV overlay to 20% (from 30% earlier).

The new charges on UPI transactions are expected to generate incremental revenue of Rs 2.1 billion in FY27 and Rs 4.7 billion in FY28, according to the domestic brokerage. “MDR converts a structurally zero-revenue GMV pool into ‘monetisable’ volume with nearly full flowthrough to EBITDA, not to mention a clear resolution to the long-standing regulatory overhang on UPI monetisation,” it added.

Jefferies recently increased its price target for the shares of Paytm to Rs 2,100 apiece from Rs 1,600 apiece, while maintaining its ‘Buy’ call. The international brokerage highlighted that Paytm stands out on monetisation of its client base in near-zero MDR regime, which is now changing favourably. The fintech platform’s 4.9 crore merchant base and strong loan-origination model should drive 25% revenue CAGR over FY26-29, which, along with operational synergies will aid sharp rise in EBITDA and profit, it added.

Initiative in credit on UPI, cloud AI inference models, wealth offering and foray into overseas markets can lift growth, the international brokerage said, as it increased earnings estimates for FY28-29 by 20-25% to factor 25 bps MDR on UPI.

Bernstein recently named Paytm its top pick, citing robust merchant lending growth, operating leverage and the potential introduction of MDR on UPI as key drivers of earnings growth.

With a target price of Rs 2,200, Bernstein expects Paytm’s EPS to reach Rs 78 by FY29. Even after excluding any potential impact from MDR on UPI, its FY29E EPS estimate stands at Rs 54, still above the Rs 46 consensus estimate.

Also read | RBI backs MDR on large-value UPI transactions, says could help expand UPI acceptance

Disclaimer: This article has been written by Debaroti Adhikary, who is not a SEBI-registered Research Analyst or an Investment Adviser. Debaroti Adhikary and his/her ‘relative(s)’ (as defined under Section 2(77) of the Companies Act, 2013) do not hold any financial interest in the companies mentioned in this article as of the date of publication. The views/recommendations mentioned in this article, wherever applicable, are those of the respective SEBI-registered Research Analyst/brokerage and have been reproduced/reported with due attribution. They should not be construed as the views or recommendations of The Economic Times Digital or the journalist. Readers are advised to consider the original research report and make their investment decisions based on their own assessment. Brokerage disclaimers here.