Business
Restaurants add protein, fiber for weight loss drug users
A mini burger, mini fries and mini beer, Clinton Hall’s “Teeny Weeny Mini Meal”, is pictured next to a regular-sized combo on Dec. 8, 2025 in New York City. Approximately one in eight American adults are currently taking drugs from the class of GLP-1 agonists that are now popular for weight loss, according to a November poll by the non-profit health policy tracker KFF. Some in the restaurant industry are taking note.
Angela Weiss | AFP | Getty Images
The cost of GLP-1 drugs is falling, and pill versions are hitting the U.S. market. For restaurant chains and snacking giants, higher adoption of weight loss and diabetes treatments poses a threat to their sales — or an opportunity.
GLP-1 drugs slow digestion, suppress users’ appetites and increase satiety. For many restaurants and packaged food manufacturers, those reactions will likely mean weaker sales. Adults who use GLP-1s consume 21% fewer calories and spend nearly a third less on grocery bills on average, according to KPMG. JPMorgan estimates the growing use of the medications could wipe out $30 billion to $55 billion in annual sales for the food and beverage industry as soon as 2030.
About one in every eight U.S. adults is currently taking a GLP-1 drug like Ozempic or Zepbound, according to the KFF Health Tracking Poll conducted from Oct. 27 to Nov. 2. That number doesn’t include consumers who have discontinued their use of the drugs; 18% of respondents said that they have taken a GLP-1 medication at some point.
Those numbers are expected to keep climbing, especially after Novo Nordisk launched its Wegovy pill in January and Eli Lilly prepares to roll out its own oral drug this year. By 2030, more than 30 million Americans could be on a GLP-1 treatment, up from 10 million in 2026, based on J.P. Morgan estimates.
Michael Siluk | UCG | Universal Images Group | Getty Images
But the shift also presents an opportunity for restaurants and food and beverage companies.
With new protein- and fiber-rich options, many businesses are hoping to win over GLP-1 consumers and mollify investors’ concerns about how the treatments will affect their bottom lines.
“Whether it is labeling as GLP-1 friendly, decreasing the serving size, emphasizing protein content, or even when you shift over to the beverage world, because hydration is certainly a concern, there are a number of players that are starting to react to this,” said Don K. Johnson, principal of strategy and execution for EY-Parthenon.
Skipping snacks and breakfast
About half of GLP-1 users report consuming fewer calories while taking the medications, according to UBS Evidence Lab. But the effects aren’t even across the industry, and “certain categories are more impacted than others,” Johnson said.
Snacking, once one of the fastest-growing grocery segments, has taken the biggest hit. About 70% of GLP-1 users who report consuming fewer calories said that they are snacking less, according to a survey conducted by EY-Parthenon last spring.
“I think it is about the specific type of snack, but I do think they’re also snacking less … Having said that, we do see that there is a shift to healthier foods, and that certainly will include healthier snacking,” Johnson said.
Think more yogurt, nuts or fruit, and fewer chips or pretzels.
Since GLP-1 drugs lead patients to lower their caloric intake, every calorie consumed means more. Protein intake is more important to prevent muscle loss. So, too, is fiber to support gut health and digestion. And staying hydrated helps mitigate some of the drugs’ side effects, like nausea and headaches.
The effects of eating less extend to restaurants. About 60% of those respondents to the EY-Parthenon survey said that they are dining out less frequently.
The shift could also hit full-service restaurants where diners order a drink with their meals. Roughly 45% of survey respondents who are eating and drinking less said that they are drinking less alcohol.
Surveys conducted by Bernstein indicate that the frequency of restaurant visits among GLP-1 users can fall by as much as 45%, depending on the category of food and the nature of the occasion, analyst Danilo Gargiulo of Bernstein wrote in a research note published on Tuesday.
The pullback in restaurant visits isn’t spread evenly across times of day, according to Dana Baggett, executive director of restaurant client strategy at RRD, which works with more than 200 restaurant brands.
Lunch, so far, hasn’t been impacted, she said. But breakfast has taken a hit, particularly from high-income GLP-1 users, who represent a bigger percentage of current patients, she said. In practice, that means fewer sugary coffee drinks and doughnuts, although options like Starbucks‘ protein cold foam could encourage those consumers to return.
A commercial for GLP-1 drugs during the Super Bowl LX broadcast on television screens at a bar in Los Angeles, California, US, on Sunday, Feb. 8, 2026.
Jill Connelly | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Dinner, especially at fast-food restaurants, has taken the brunt of the damage so far.
Dinner traffic has fallen 6% among consumers who have been taking the medication regularly, according to Baggett; in other words, overall restaurant sales during dinner hours have declined about 0.4% due to GLP-1 use, she said. But as the number of consumers who use the drug consistently grows, so too will the pressure on restaurant traffic.
And snacking isn’t confined to grocery store aisles. For limited-service restaurants, like McDonald’s or Taco Bell, snacking accounts for 12% of spending, according to Bank of America Global Research.
Even so, threats to those large restaurants chains may only be gradual, which gives them time to adapt.
“I think there shouldn’t be this panic out there in the marketplace, but this is a trend that’s not going away,” Baggett said. “This is an amazing opportunity for brands to start repositioning themselves and focusing on what consumers want: less sugar, higher protein and that focus on fiber.”
How Big Food is evolving
If recent earnings conference calls are any example, restaurant and food executives also think that it isn’t time to panic just yet. For some companies, the trend offers a chance to reach new customers through healthier options.
“I think there are more opportunities than threats, but there are both,” PepsiCo CEO Ramon Laguarta told Wall Street analysts on the company’s earnings conference call in early February.
In recent months, Pepsi has released protein-packed Doritos, relaunched Gatorade and unveiled fiber-rich varieties of SunChips and Smartfood popcorn. Those moves are part of the company’s broader strategy to modernize its portfolio and boost sales by appealing to health-conscious consumers, but they also align with Laguarta’s assumption that GLP-1 medications will be adopted more broadly.
Domino’s Pizza CEO Russell Weiner sounded unshaken when he told analysts last month that the pizza chain hasn’t seen GLP-1 drugs affect its sales yet.
“Dinner, for us, is a sharing occasion, so perhaps that’s why we’re not seeing any impact, but we’re going to continue to watch it,” he said. “But if there needs to be menu innovation around that, we will do that.”
RRD’s Baggett told CNBC that she thinks portions and snack sizing will be key for restaurants to attract consumers who are on GLP-1 treatments.
When asked about the drugs on McDonald’s earnings conference call last month, CEO Chris Kempczinski touted the burger chain’s existing protein options. But he added that the preferences of GLP-1 users are also being considered as the chain creates new menu items.
“We’re also seeing changes around maybe less snacking, changes in some of the beverages that they drink, less sugary drinks, and so all of those things are factoring into some of what we’re out there experimenting with and testing with,” he said.
Other restaurant chains have already launched options that appeal to diners on GLP-1 drugs, even if the medications weren’t the key impetus. For example, Chipotle launched grab-and-go protein cups in December, aiming to cash in on the protein and snacking crazes as its restaurant sales struggled.
And Olive Garden, owned by Darden Restaurants, released a Lighter Portions menu last year, downsizing a handful of its classic entrees at a lower price. Darden CEO Rick Cardenas said that the chain introduced the new menu to give all of its customers more options.
“It just so happens to benefit the consumers that might want smaller portions that are on GLP-1 medications, and we have a lot of options like that in all of our menus,” Cardenas said on the company’s earnings conference call in December.
Marketing to GLP-1 users
Other companies have explicitly appealed to GLP-1 users, particularly when it comes to innovation.
In 2024, Nestle led the pack when it launched Virtual Pursuit, a frozen-food brand targeting GLP-1 users. While the packaging initially didn’t call out that it was “GLP-1 friendly,” the food company updated it later to include it prominently, boosting sales.
“It’s a big initiative for Nestle,” Nestle USA CEO Marty Thompson told CNBC at a media event earlier in March. “There will be those things that are designed for GLP-1, and there will be those things that will be sort of a companion to GLP-1, clearly calling out protein and fiber, but not necessarily designed portion-size wise or whatever for GLP-1.”
Nestle’s focus will extend beyond food, too. Thompson said that the company plans to expand into beverages and listed protein shakes as one potential way to appeal to GLP-1 customers.
Even food companies without much exposure to GLP-1 users are broadening their portfolios to reach them.
Close-up view of Dippin’ Dots ice cream cup in a person’s hand, Santa Cruz, California, June 22, 2024.
Smith Collection | Gado | Archive Photos | Getty Images
For example, Dippin’ Dots and Icee owner J&J Snack Foods makes most of its sales in stadiums, theme parks and malls. Because of its “experiential” focus, CEO Dan Fachner told CNBC that he thinks that J&J is more insulated from the effect of GLP-1 drugs compared with its snacking peers.
“I still think that in most cases, even people on GLP-1 drugs will still use those occasions for snacking,” he said.
Even still, more than a year ago, Fachner presented employees with a challenge for the company’s grocery business, which accounts for 13.5% of annual sales.
“Take the core products — pretzels and churros and Icees and Dippin’ Dots and frozen novelties — tell me how we can make them more GLP-1 friendly as it continues to grow,” he said.
This year, J&J has a number of new products hitting the freezer aisle. Protein has been added to its soft pretzels, now available in a smaller portion size. And Luigi’s Italian Ice, traditionally sold in a cup, will come in a “mini pop size,” with a formula that includes more antioxidants or helps hydration, according to Fachner. If the new products succeed in grocery stores, then J&J plans to take them to the company’s food service customers, as well.
J&J’s new products also have the benefit of appealing to a wider audience than just consumers who are on GLP-1 medication. For example, Fachner expects the new Luigi’s mini pops will appeal to health-conscious moms as a snack for their kids.
Uptake could change strategies
For restaurants and food suppliers, current data on the eating and drinking habits of GLP-1 users are informing their efforts to appeal to those consumers. But that behavior can still fluctuate.
About 5% of users lapse in taking the medications, due to cost, side effects or hitting their weight goal. After quitting, they tend to maintain the same eating habits for a couple of months before eventually returning to a higher caloric intake.
“I think that we don’t spend enough time talking about the fact that there may be sort of a cycle of behaviors — people going on and off of the drugs — that will have sort of an interesting impact on manufacturers of food because there’s no ‘before’ and ‘after,’” EY’s Johnson said. “It’s a process.”
And a whole new group of consumers could soon be taking daily pill versions of GLP-1 medications. It’s too soon to tell if oral GLP-1 drugs will result in more consistent usage or higher quit rates and to know who exactly is trying the pill version over the injectable.
“I don’t have a crystal ball, but my guess is from our survey that the folks using the oral version of the drug will be a new set of people, because one of the barriers to trial was — as can be expected — a lot of people don’t like to take shots of injections,” Johnson said.
There is one prediction that is widely accepted: the pill version will mean much higher adoption of GLP-1 drugs.
Last week’s stock market rebound—the best over a seven-day period since February 2021–hinges on the broad direction of oil prices in the aftermath of seemingly inconclusive talks in Islamabad, although Reuters cited shipping data to report the passage Saturday of three fully laden super-tankers through the Strait of Hormuz that accounts for a fourth of the global oil trade. “The market would see a gap down opening, though there should not be panic,” said Sham Chandak, head of institutional equities at Elios Financial Services.
“The market will take cues from oil prices, which are at the centre of this conflict.”
Last week, India’s equity indices climbed 6%, snapping a relentless six-week losing run, after the announcement of two-week truce. Oil slumped below $100 a barrel to $95.2 Friday, having climbed to nearly $120 in the immediate aftermath of the war.
For the currency, the bias would likely be weak, too. Stage-gated central bank curbs on speculative trading helped the rupee climb from record lows last week and those regulations could still provide the bulwark against a currency slide due to the oil prices, but the gains are expected to be capped if geopolitical concerns resurface.
The rupee’s upside may be capped in the 92.40/$ to 92.50/$ range in the absence of a further retreat in oil prices. On the downside, the central bank is expected to step up intervention around the 94.80/$ level, which is the currency’s record closing low.
‘TENTATIVE’
“Most avenues for speculative trades have been shut, so the market is now largely left with hedgers and market makers. That does make liquidity thinner, but at this point, stability is more important,” said Anindya Banerjee, head of commodity and currency, Kotak Securities.Banerjee expects meaningful intervention by the central bank at levels beyond 94.50/$, as these levels are psychologically very significant.
The rupee depreciated 10% in FY26, from 85.75/$ in April to close at 94.83/$ on March 31. The currency deprecated more than 4% in March alone, after the war started.
To curb the pace of deprecation, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) came up with two back-to-back circulars on March 27 and April 1, restricting arbitrage trades between offshore and onshore markets.
“Currently, the ‘tweet risk’ outweighs traditional risk concerns. Despite talks of a ceasefire, the absence of a definitive agreement continues to sustain uncertainty,” said Kunal Sodhani, head of treasury at Shinhan Bank India. “This is evident in crude oil prices, which remain elevated in the $95–$100 per barrel range instead of easing meaningfully.”
‘ALL ISN’T LOST’
To be sure, market participants across asset classes expect the two-week time window to be fully utilised to hammer out a solution that is reasonably durable. “The market is cognisant of the fact that the current ceasefire expires on April 22. So there is still time for the parties involved to negotiate,” said Elios’ Chandak.
Some expect short sellers to return, pushing stock prices lower.
“The markets are expected to react negatively to the failure of talks and that is likely to imbue volatility,” said A Balasubramanian, managing director and CEO, Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC. “But typically, these dialogues involve a lot of back and forth and a strong outcome can’t be expected in a single day of talks.”
US stocks have closed mixed, with investors pressing pause as they headed into the weekend and kept an eye on ongoing Middle East peace negotiations.
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They are understood to have passed off some of the arbitrage deals, which were hit by the recent regulatory directives, as transactions done to hedge the capital received from overseas parents, two persons told ET.
Arbitrage deals are cut to profit from price differences in the local foreign exchange forward market and the offshore market for non-deliverable forwards (NDFs).
Banks were forced to unwind these deals after the Indian regulator slapped a uniform limit of $100 mn on the net open position (NOP) a
bank can have onshore.
However, some MNC banks are showing the capital that has come in earlier or flowed in recently from their head-offices as underliers for the onshore forward leg in the arbitrage deals. Thus, this buy-dollar forward contract with a proper underlier is shown as a transaction to cover the risk arising from a slide in the rupee – and not as any part of an arbitrage deal.
Foreign banks function as branches in India which are part of the global books. The capital coming in as dollars or euros into an MNC bank’s India operations, are converted into rupees to support and grow the business here.
“Technically, this may be a response to the NOP limit. But whether this explanation would stand regulatory scrutiny is unclear as RBI may tend to look into the timeline – when the capital came in, when the forward deals were struck, which of these are now claimed as hedges, how they were accounted for, etc. Also, are there communications between India and the HQ to back the explanation?” said another person.THE NDF DEALS
When the rupee comes under pressure, banks cut arbitrage deals by buying dollar forward in India and selling dollar forward in the NDF market which has been flourishing in London, Singapore, Hong Kong, and New York since the ‘90s when foreign portfolio managers,hedge funds and others explored ways to bet on the USD-INR rate following partial convertibility of the rupee.
Typically, when geopolitical turmoil and sell off by foreign funds pulls down INR, the USD trades a little stronger (and INR quotes a tad weaker) in NDF compared to the onshore market. So, the USD-INR rate is higher in NDF than the forward USDINR rates in India.
MNC and Indian banks cash in on this by buying USD in the onshore forward market, and simultaneously selling USD-INR in the NDF market. Forward contracts with tenures of one to three months are the most liquid.
RBI came down heavily as the banks with their arb deals were providing liquidity to hedge funds and other international speculators who were shorting the INR. When these players shorted INR, they went long on USD and therefore bought USD-INR forward contracts in NDF. Their counterparties were the Indian banks selling USDINR forwards in the NDF – the offshore leg in the two-legged arbitrage deals.
REGULATORY BYPASS
The central bank, which rushed in with restrictions in two phases, had also taken an exception to the practice of corporates in India, who cannot access the NDF, using banks to enter the offshore market. Since USD-INR was slightly higher in NDF, large corporate exporters would sign forward deals with banks in India which did a backto-back deal in the NDF market to offer the companies rates that are very close to the NDF rate – thus, allowing clients to convert more rupees from their export proceeds. This partly shifted liquidity from the onshore to offshore market.
While a forex dealer or a corporate treasurer may find such company-bank-NDF deals kosher, legal practitioners would find them in violation of the central tenet of the Foreign Exchange Management Act: what cannot be done directly, cannot be done indirectly.
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The long-short ratio-the proportion of bullish (long) positions to bearish (short)-of foreign portfolio investors’ Nifty futures wagers rose to 22% on Friday, close to the 18-21% range seen in the last week of February before the start of the US-Iran clash on February 28.
The reading had fallen to 9.9% on March 13 and stayed between 10% and 18% for most of the fighting period as these investors had increased the hedges against their portfolios. The ratio had made a lifetime low of 5.98% on September 30, 2025.
ET BureauThe short covering came amid Nifty’s weekly gains of 5.9% until Friday, when it ended at 24,050.6, its highest closing level in a month.
“FIIs had begun covering shorts in the derivatives segment in the past few days, signalling early reversal cues,” said Nilesh Jain, head of technical and derivatives research, Centrum Finverse.. “Friday’s return to buying in the cash market after multiple sessions is a positive development and could support further pullback alongside continued short covering.”
FPIs were buyers to the tune of ₹672 crore in the cash market on Friday, after remaining sellers in all trading sessions in March and April so far. Further cuts in bearish positions will depend on the progress of the US-Iran talks, which began on a sour note over the weekend . “While the long-short ratio has improved due to short covering, we do not see many fresh long additions, suggesting that FIIs remain cautious rather than bullish,” said Siddarth Bhamre, head of institutional research at Asit C Mehta. “Continued selling in cash markets with one day of pause is not a sign of a U-turn in sentiment.” Since end of September 2024, when the downtrend in Indian equities kicked in, the long-short ratio of FPIs’ Nifty futures positions has mostly stayed between 10% and 20%, indicating predominantly bearish bets. Before the slide started, the reading was at 81%.
Somil Mehta, head of retail research at Mirae Asset Sharekhan said the shift in the ratio is yet to show foreigners are back to their bullish ways. “Sustained improvement in their sentiment will depend on stability in global factors like crude oil prices and geopolitical developments,” he said. The progress in companies’ fourth quarter earnings will be one of the factors for foreigners to revisit their stance on Indian equities.
“If earnings remain under pressure, valuations may not be attractive to foreign investors. They are also likely to wait for currency stability in India,” said Bhamre.
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