Short covering drove April’s rally across the broader market and in several stocks. While May may not see gains of a similar scale, stock specific action is expected to persist. Here are analysts’ top derivatives picks for the month.

BULLISH BETS

SUN PHARMACEUTICAL
Change in Open Interest in May Series: – 3.3% Change in price in May Series: 1.7% RATIONALE: The stock is up nearly 12% in the past week after announcing the acquisition of Organon. The stock is showing early signs of a potential trend reversal after a lengthy consolidation beneath a declining resistance trendline around Rs 1,850–1,880, said Ajit Mishra, senior vice president, research, at Religare Broking. Mishra suggests buying for a target of Rs 1,960 with a stop-loss at Rs 1,740.

ADANI PORTS AND SEZ
Change in Open Interest in May Series: 2.64% Change in price in May Series: 1.10%
RATIONALE: The stock has broken out of a trading range that had held for over two years on the weekly charts, said Vipin Kumar, AVP – derivatives and technical research at Globe Capital Markets. “This breakout was well supported by a combination of long build-up and short covering over the past couple of trading sessions,” he said. Kumar suggests buying May futures in the Rs 1,640–1,620 range for a target of Rs 1,750– 1,800, with a stop-loss at Rs 1,550.OIL AND NATURAL GAS CORPORATION (ONGC)
Change in Open Interest in May Series: 0.9% Change in price in May Series: -1.8%

RATIONALE: Shares of ONGC made a fresh 52-week high last week amid rising Brent crude prices due to the West Asia conflict. The stock has recently seen a positive price-volume breakout at the Rs 292 level, said Akshay Bhagwat, senior vice president, derivatives research, at JM Financial Services.

“The last couple of days of profit booking are offering a lucrative trade setup to rebuild long bets,” he said. Bhagwat suggests buying May futures at Rs 301–297 for a target of Rs 318–329, with a stop-loss at Rs 287.

SONA BLW PRECISION FORGINGS
Change in Open Interest in May Series: -1.13% Change in price in May Series: 1.07%

RATIONALE: Sona shares hit a 52-week high on Thursday, breaching their hurdle of the Rs 550–560 zone. “In the current series, like in April, it is showing a positive reaction, and hence a throwback towards the Rs 585–575 zone is likely to provide a favourable entry point, with Rs 540 as a strict risk management level,” said Amit Trivedi, SVP, Institutional Equities Research at Yes Securities. His target on the stock is Rs 660.

BHARTI AIRTEL
Change in Open Interest in May Series: -2.27% Change in price in May Series: 0.33%

RATIONALE: Bharti Airtel broke out of a two-month range on Thursday after profi ttaking from record highs had tested its earlier breakout zone, said Kumar of Globe Capital Markets. “We suggest adding long positions in Bharti Airtel within the Rs 1,870–1,840 range, with a stop-loss below Rs 1,750, for a price target of Rs 2,000–2,100,” he said.

ITC
Change in Open Interest in May Series: -1.4% Change in price in May Series: -1.75%

RATIONALE: Technical momentum indicators hint at a reversal after a shortterm bottoming pattern at `300, said JM’s Bhagwat. He suggests buying ITC May futures at Rs 310–315 for a target of Rs 327–334, with a stop-loss at Rs 299.

KOTAK MAHINDRA BANK
Change in Open Interest in May Series: 3.35% Change in price in May Series: 1.46%

RATIONALE: The stock saw a rise in open interest ahead of its fourth-quarter results this week, along with a price rise, signalling bullishness. Higher rollovers and bullish build-up point to strength, with a move above Rs 385 needed to revive momentum towards Rs 420, said Trivedi of Yes Securities. He added that Rs 360 remains key support.

BEARISH BETS
TATA MOTORS PASSENGER VEHICLES
Change in Open Interest in May Series: 5.1% Change in price in May Series: -3.2%

RATIONALE: The 5.1% increase in its futures open interest, coupled with a 3.2% decline in the stock price, points to fresh bearish build-up, signalling continued negative sentiment. “Recent rebounds have been short-lived, failing to sustain above resistance zones. The broader structure continues to weaken. The current bounce appears corrective rather than a reversal, unless the stock reclaims the Rs 370–380 zone convincingly,” said Mishra, who expects the stock to fall to Rs 320, with stop loss at Rs 355.

Kotak Mahindra Bank delivered a strong set of Q4 results, with multiple positives across key metrics. Margins expanded unexpectedly, credit costs declined, and most operating line items showed a positive bias. As ET Now noted, the numbers were “extremely strong,” with “margin increase” and “credit costs” both surprising on the upside. The bigger question now is whether this level of performance can be sustained and whether valuations still offer comfort.

According to analyst Dnyanada Vaidya from Axis Securities, the standout elements of the quarter were margin expansion and improving asset quality. She noted that while net interest income was broadly in line, the “13 basis points increase in margins” came as a positive surprise.

More importantly, stress in unsecured segments such as microfinance, personal loans, and credit cards has started to ease, while the secured book remains stable. This has led to lower fresh stress formation and a favourable outlook on credit costs, expected to remain around “70 basis points plus or minus five.”

However, the management’s commentary on margins going ahead has introduced some caution. ET Now highlighted that net interest margins could remain “flattish or even slightly below,” largely due to higher term deposit rates. Vaidya acknowledged this as a “slight negative surprise,” adding that rising deposit costs will weigh on margins. That said, she believes the impact could be partly offset by growth in unsecured lending and a continued push towards CASA deposits. She also pointed out that deposit competition remains intense across the banking system, as credit growth continues to outpace deposit growth.

On the corporate lending side, Kotak has seen relatively slower growth compared to peers. ET Now observed that the corporate book is expanding at a “very slower rate,” reflecting the bank’s conservative stance. Vaidya explained that the bank has prioritised “profitable growth” and avoided segments where the risk-reward equation was not favourable. This approach has supported margins so far. Going forward, she expects some pickup, with corporate, SME, and secured lending likely to drive growth, while expansion in unsecured lending will remain measured.

Another factor that had been weighing on sentiment was the potential acquisition of IDBI Bank. ET Now pointed to Kotak’s openness to inorganic growth “at the right price.” Vaidya clarified that the bank remains cautious and that the IDBI deal is “not on the cards right now.” This, she said, removes an overhang and is positive for valuations. She added that Kotak continues to deliver a strong return profile, with “2 plus percent ROA,” second only to ICICI Bank among large peers.
The key debate now revolves around the sustainability of returns. ET Now questioned whether a “2% plus ROA” can be maintained, especially with softer margins and previously low credit costs. Vaidya believes it is achievable, supported by three factors. First, operating leverage should improve, helping reduce the cost-to-asset ratio. Second, fee income—particularly from cards—has been weak but is expected to recover as the bank pushes growth in that segment. Third, credit costs, which were elevated earlier, have stabilised and should remain steady.She concluded that while margins may soften, these levers should help offset the pressure, allowing Kotak to sustain a return on assets in the range of “2% to 2.1%” over the next couple of years.

Kotak Mahindra Bank’s Q4 performance reflects strong execution, especially on margins and asset quality. While headwinds from deposit costs and competitive intensity persist, stable credit trends and operating improvements could help the bank maintain healthy profitability levels.

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia — Cristiano Ronaldo’s remarkable 20-game winning streak with Al Nassr came to a sudden halt Sunday as the Saudi Pro League leaders suffered a shocking 3-1 defeat to mid-table Al Qadsiah, falling short of surpassing the longest winning run of the Portuguese superstar’s illustrious club career. The loss, Ronaldo’s first in all competitions since early in the season, hands renewed hope to title rivals Al Hilal and complicates Al Nassr’s path to a first league championship under the five-time Ballon d’Or winner.

Al Nassr entered the Matchday 31 clash at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium riding high after extending their streak to 20 consecutive victories across all competitions with a 2-0 win over Al Ahli just days earlier. Ronaldo had scored the opener in that match, moving closer to his 1,000-career-goal milestone. Against Al Qadsiah, however, the visitors capitalized on defensive lapses and clinical finishing to stun the favorites, with Julian Quinones among the scorers for the home side.

Ronaldo, 41, found the net for Al Nassr but it was not enough to prevent the defeat. The result ends a historic run that had matched the longest winning streak of his club career, previously set during his time at Real Madrid. Coach Jorge Jesus appeared visibly frustrated on the sideline as Al Nassr dropped points in a game many expected them to dominate comfortably.

The streak had propelled Al Nassr eight points clear at the top of the table with just four games remaining before Sunday’s setback. Al Hilal, their fierce rivals, now have an opportunity to close the gap significantly, especially with a game in hand. The loss reignites the title race in dramatic fashion as the season enters its decisive phase.

Ronaldo posted a message on social media after the match, emphasizing resilience and unfinished business. “We keep fighting,” he wrote, accompanied by images from the game. His leadership and goal-scoring form have been central to Al Nassr’s success this season, with the forward netting 25 league goals despite his age. Teammates like Kingsley Coman and João Félix have provided strong support, but Sunday exposed vulnerabilities when the streak was tested.

The defeat marks only the third loss for Al Nassr in the league campaign but comes at a critical juncture. Analysts noted defensive organization issues and fatigue as potential factors after such an intense run of fixtures. Al Qadsiah, fighting to avoid relegation concerns earlier in the season, played with freedom and punished counter-attacking opportunities effectively.

Ronaldo’s career-long winning streak record dates back to his Real Madrid days, where he was part of several dominant runs. Equaling but not surpassing that mark with Al Nassr adds a personal layer to Sunday’s disappointment. The Portuguese icon joined the club in late 2022 and has transformed its fortunes, scoring over 120 goals while chasing silverware. A Saudi Pro League title remains the primary objective this season.

Jesus will now focus on regrouping ahead of remaining fixtures. Al Nassr’s depth, including high-profile signings, provides options for rotation, but momentum is key in tight title races. The team’s attacking prowess remains potent, yet Sunday highlighted the need for greater consistency at the back.

Fans reacted with a mix of shock and determination online. Many praised Ronaldo’s continued excellence while urging the squad to bounce back quickly. The loss hands psychological momentum to Al Hilal, setting up potential fireworks in any remaining head-to-head encounters. With four games left, Al Nassr still hold the advantage but can no longer afford slip-ups.

This result underscores the competitiveness of the Saudi Pro League, which has grown in stature with the arrival of global stars. Ronaldo’s presence has elevated the competition’s profile worldwide, drawing attention to every match. Despite the streak ending, his impact this season remains undeniable as he chases both team and personal milestones.

Looking ahead, Al Nassr must channel the disappointment into motivation. Ronaldo’s experience in high-pressure situations — from Champions League triumphs to international glory — will be vital. The club aims to secure the title and potentially add more domestic cups, building on the foundation laid since his arrival.

The 3-1 scoreline does not fully reflect the game’s flow, with Al Nassr creating chances but failing to convert consistently. Al Qadsiah’s goalkeeper made key saves, and quick transitions caught the visitors off guard. Post-match, Jesus emphasized learning from the defeat rather than dwelling on it.

As the Saudi season nears its climax, all eyes remain on Ronaldo and Al Nassr. The ended streak serves as a reminder that even dominant runs eventually face challenges. For the Cristiano Ronaldo-led side, the focus shifts immediately to recovery and reclaiming momentum in pursuit of silverware.

LOS ANGELES — Los Angeles Dodgers superstar Mookie Betts continues making steady progress in his recovery from a right oblique strain suffered on April 4, 2026, though a minor setback during batting practice has tempered expectations for an immediate return as the club navigates the early portion of the season without its versatile All-Star. The 33-year-old shortstop, placed on the 10-day injured list shortly after the injury, remains day-to-day in his rehabilitation while the Dodgers emphasize caution with the tricky muscle group.

Betts was injured while running the bases during a game against the Washington Nationals in early April. He exited that contest and was diagnosed with the oblique strain, a common but often unpredictable injury for position players that typically requires four to six weeks of recovery. The Dodgers initially projected a timeline landing in early to mid-May, with manager Dave Roberts noting the importance of avoiding re-aggravation that could sideline Betts for months.

A slight setback occurred in late April when Betts experienced soreness after taking batting practice on the field. He shifted to cage work and reported feeling he had “turned the corner” shortly afterward. As of early May, Betts is symptom-free according to recent updates from Roberts and the training staff. He has resumed swinging the bat and is ramping up baseball activities under close supervision.

The Dodgers have been methodical in Betts’ protocol, prioritizing long-term health for the veteran who signed a massive contract extension. Oblique injuries involve rotational muscles critical for hitting and throwing, making premature returns risky. Betts has expressed optimism, telling reporters he aims to return ahead of the most conservative estimates while acknowledging the need to listen to his body.

Roberts indicated Betts could begin a minor league rehab assignment in early May, potentially as soon as the weekend of May 1-3 before the setback delayed those plans slightly. A typical rehab stint for position players lasts up to 20 days, though Betts may need only a short assignment given his progress. A return around May 8-12 remains plausible if he clears all checkpoints without further soreness.

In Betts’ absence, the Dodgers have leaned on a mix of Miguel Rojas, Hyeseong Kim (recalled from Triple-A), and rookie Alex Freeland at shortstop and across the infield. The club has managed to stay competitive thanks to strong pitching and contributions from other stars, but Betts’ elite defense, speed and power are missed in the lineup. Before the injury, he had started the season with a .179 average but showed signs of power with two home runs.

Medical experts note that oblique strains heal differently for each athlete. Factors such as age, prior injuries and the demands of the position influence timelines. Betts, a former MVP known for his durability and work ethic, benefits from elite conditioning and access to top-tier sports medicine resources. The Dodgers’ cautious approach reflects lessons from past oblique cases league-wide where rushed returns led to extended absences.

Betts has remained engaged with the team during his recovery, providing leadership from the dugout and staying involved in preparation. He traveled with the club on recent road trips and continues daily treatment including physical therapy, mobility work and progressive strength exercises focused on core stability and rotational power. Monitoring swelling and pain levels remains central to his daily routine.

The timing of Betts’ potential return coincides with a stretch of the Dodgers’ schedule that includes key series against National League contenders. His versatility allows flexibility in lineup construction upon activation, whether at shortstop or moving around the diamond as needed. Fans and analysts eagerly await his comeback, viewing it as a potential spark for the defending champions’ lineup.

This injury marks another challenge in Betts’ Dodgers tenure, where he has battled various ailments while delivering championship-level play. His professionalism during rehabilitation has drawn praise from teammates and coaches. As he nears the next phase of his return — likely on-field batting practice followed by game action in the minors — optimism grows within the organization.

Roberts and the medical staff continue providing regular updates while shielding specific benchmarks to maintain competitive edges. The club has depth to weather the absence in the short term but recognizes Betts’ irreplaceable impact on both sides of the ball. A successful ramp-up could see him rejoin the active roster before mid-May, bolstering postseason aspirations.

For Dodgers supporters, the focus remains on patience. Betts’ history of resilience suggests he will return stronger and more determined. As the calendar turns deeper into May, daily developments in his oblique recovery will dominate headlines and influence Los Angeles’ trajectory in a competitive National League West.

CHENNAI — Actor-turned-politician Joseph Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) surged to a commanding lead across Tamil Nadu on Monday as vote counting progressed for the 234-seat Assembly elections, positioning the debutant party to potentially break the decades-old Dravidian duopoly of the DMK and AIADMK in a historic political shift. Early trends showed TVK leading in a majority of constituencies, with reports indicating the party ahead in over 100 seats by late morning while only three of the ruling DMK’s 34 ministers held leads.

Counting of votes, cast in a single phase on April 23 with a record 85 percent turnout, began at 8 a.m. amid tight security. By 10 a.m., TVK had established a strong wave across all regions — north, south, west, delta and Kongu — signaling massive youth and urban support for Vijay’s debut. The party, formed in 2024, contested all 234 seats independently, rejecting alliances and promising a fresh alternative focused on jobs, education and social justice.

Vijay himself appeared on track for victory in both Perambur and Tiruchirappalli (East), the two constituencies he contested. In Perambur, he led against DMK and AIADMK rivals, while similar trends emerged in Trichy East. Chief Minister M.K. Stalin trailed in Kolathur against a TVK candidate, adding to the drama as the ruling DMK struggled in early rounds. AIADMK, led by Edappadi K. Palaniswami, held some ground but lagged behind the TVK surge.

The developments mark a potential earthquake in Tamil Nadu politics, where DMK and AIADMK have alternated power since the 1960s. Political analysts described the early trends as a “Vijay wave” driven by first-time voters, women and disenchanted sections seeking change beyond traditional Dravidian ideologies. Exit polls had varied, with some predicting a DMK hold and others, notably Axis My India, forecasting TVK in the 98-120 seat range — enough to challenge for power or emerge as kingmaker.

TVK’s campaign emphasized anti-corruption, youth employment, farm loan waivers and infrastructure. Vijay, a superstar with a massive fan base known as “Thalapathy,” leveraged his cinematic appeal and social media presence to mobilize voters. High turnout, which he credited partly to children encouraging families, reflected enthusiasm unseen in recent cycles. Supporters chanted “TVK” at public events, including a viral video from Velankanni church.

DMK leaders expressed confidence in their welfare schemes and governance record but faced stiff anti-incumbency. The party highlighted achievements in infrastructure and social programs during campaigning. AIADMK positioned itself as the main opposition, attacking both DMK corruption allegations and TVK’s inexperience. Neither major Dravidian party formed pre-poll alliances with TVK, leading to triangular contests in most seats.

As trends solidified, TVK officials projected confidence. Party spokespersons said the results would rewrite Tamil Nadu’s political map, with Vijay potentially emerging as a decisive leader. The party activated strategies to retain MLAs-elect amid speculation of post-poll maneuvers. Vijay, maintaining a low profile on counting day, focused on spiritual visits earlier, seeking blessings for a “huge victory.”

Key battlegrounds reflected the shift. In urban centers like Chennai and Coimbatore, TVK gained traction among young professionals. Rural and delta regions showed mixed but competitive trends, with TVK splitting votes in traditional DMK and AIADMK strongholds. Congress and BJP, in alliances with DMK and AIADMK respectively, saw limited early leads.

The Election Commission deployed robust measures for smooth counting, with results expected to trickle in through the day. High security in Chennai and other cities prevented any untoward incidents. Voter turnout of 85 percent, one of the highest ever, underscored the stakes in this triangular contest.

If early leads hold, TVK could secure enough seats to form a government or force a hung Assembly scenario, ending the binary dominance that defined Tamil Nadu politics for over half a century. Political observers noted parallels to past actor-politicians like M.G. Ramachandran but cautioned that Vijay’s path remains uncharted. His success would signal a new era driven by celebrity, social media and generational change.

DMK spokespersons urged patience, noting that early trends often fluctuate and full results could differ. AIADMK leaders highlighted their organizational strength in certain belts. Yet the momentum clearly favored TVK in most regions, with reports of only a handful of DMK ministers ahead.

The election carries implications beyond Tamil Nadu. A TVK breakthrough could inspire similar celebrity entries elsewhere and reshape southern politics. Issues like economic growth, education loans, MSP for farmers and caste dynamics played central roles in campaigning. TVK’s solo contest strategy amplified its disruptive potential.

As counting continued into the afternoon, all eyes remained on key constituencies and overall seat projections. Markets and political circles buzzed with speculation. Regardless of the final tally, Vijay’s TVK has already altered the discourse, proving that a new force can challenge entrenched powers in India’s most politically conscious state.

The 2026 verdict will determine not just the next government but the future trajectory of Dravidian politics. With TVK leading strongly in early counts, Tamil Nadu stands at the cusp of history, where a film star’s political debut threatens to redraw the map.

India’s equity benchmark Nifty50 index may be masking a deeper fault line. Two of its largest sectoral pillars of IT services and consumption are facing headwinds that go well beyond cyclical softness, according to Dalal Street’s top stock picker Ravi Dharamshi whose firm ValueQuest Investment Advisors handles around Rs 24,000 crore worth of investor money.

“The index is inherently backward-looking and does not adequately capture many of the emerging sectors that are driving incremental growth,” Dharamshi told ET Markets in an interview. “The index tells you where the market has been. The opportunity lies in where the economy is going.”

His warning carries weight. ValueQuest has been quietly repositioning for months by moving capital away from consumption-oriented exposures and steering clear of IT services entirely, even before the geopolitical shock that roiled markets over the past two months.

The Structural Problem With the Two Pillars

Dharamshi argues that IT services is in the early stages of AI-led structural disruption — not a temporary demand lull, but a fundamental reshaping of the sector’s business model. Consumption, meanwhile, is suffering as a second-order casualty of the same transition: as IT employment and income growth slow, discretionary spending softens downstream.

“IT is dealing with AI-led disruption, while consumption is a second-order derivative of the same slowdown, as income growth and job creation adjust to this transition,” he said. “While headline valuations may appear reasonable, they don’t fully reflect the dispersion underneath.”
This creates a troubling optics problem for investors relying on index-level reads. Apparent reasonableness at the top level hides deteriorating fundamentals in the components that have historically driven Nifty‘s returns.
War, Crude Oil, and a 3–4% Earnings Downgrade
The geopolitical crisis has added a second layer of pressure. Dharamshi estimates the ongoing conflict could shave 3–4 percentage points off FY27 earnings growth, bringing expectations down from 16–17% to approximately 12–13%. The Union Budget had implicitly assumed crude at around $70 as oil has since moved closer to $90 for the full year.

“Apart from higher crude and commodity prices, we are also seeing supply chain disruptions, elevated logistics costs, and pressure on government finances,” he said. “Importantly, this shock comes at a time when India was on the cusp of a cyclical recovery, which makes the timing unfortunate.”

If crude sustains near $100, Dharamshi flags risks that go well beyond headline inflation. The real stress, he cautions, is in sectors like chemicals, pharmaceuticals, fertilisers, and agrochemicals that are heavily dependent on crude derivatives for their input costs. Gas availability has emerged as a parallel constraint.

“Crude is not just an inflation variable — it is a supply chain variable. And that’s where the second-order impact becomes far more disruptive,” he said.

Where ValueQuest Has Been Moving Money
Against this backdrop, Dharamshi’s firm has been decisively reallocating into energy transition, defence and aerospace, AI infrastructure enablers, and grid capex plays. The thesis is that a fragmented, security-conscious world will structurally reward countries and companies that build hard assets and self-reliant capacity.

“This is not a short-term trade; it is a structural reallocation of capital globally, and India is a key beneficiary,” he said.

On manufacturing and electronics manufacturing services, a space that has seen sharp corrections after earlier enthusiasm, Dharamshi remains constructive but selective. He believes the cycle is shifting from assembly-led growth, which drove narratives but also valuation excesses, toward deeper component manufacturing and value-chain integration.

“Assembly builds volumes. Components build profits. And that cycle is just getting started,” he said.

On data centres, Dharamshi sees one of India’s most significant investment opportunities of the decade. From a current base of roughly 1.5 GW, announced projects could take capacity to 8–10 GW in the near term, scaling to around 15 GW by 2032–33 — representing approximately $150 billion in cumulative capex. His preferred play is through the enablers: power equipment, grid infrastructure, and electrical components.

“The real money in a gold rush is rarely made by the miners — it’s made by those selling the tools,” he said.

The FII Question
On the question of foreign institutional investor returns, Dharamshi says peace would likely trigger tactical inflows and short-covering as India is meaningfully under-owned but sustained capital flows require more than geopolitical calm.

He flags a structural disadvantage: FPI flows into India are taxed, unlike in most other major markets, creating a persistent competitiveness gap. Without coordinated policy action to attract foreign capital across equities, bonds, FDI, and NRI deposits, the loop of FPI outflows, rupee depreciation, inflation, and widening deficits risks becoming self-reinforcing.

“Flows don’t chase peace alone — they chase growth, stability, and ease of capital movement. Fix those, and flows will follow,” he said.

The Medium-Term View: Earnings Dispersion, Not Index Returns
Beneath the caution, Dharamshi’s structural outlook for India remains intact. Corporate balance sheets are deleveraged. A private sector capex cycle is still ahead. RoE expansion, he argues, is a multi-year story — one that markets will look through near-term macro disruption to price in.

“In the short term, macros will dominate headlines; in the medium term, earnings dispersion will dominate returns,” he said.

For investors still anchored to the Nifty, that earnings dispersion is the core risk. The pillars that built the index may no longer be the pillars that drive its next chapter.

“If this cycle is about building real assets,” Dharamshi said, “we want to be owning the pipes, not the paint.”