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Social Security 2027 COLA projected at 3.8% amid rising inflation

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Social Security trust fund to run out by 2032, new report warns

Social Security beneficiaries are expected to see a larger cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) in 2027 amid persistently high inflation this year, a new report finds.

An analysis by The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) predicts that the 2027 COLA will be 3.8%, or 1 percentage point higher than the 2026 COLA of 2.8%, based on the latest consumer price index (CPI) inflation data released on Tuesday. TSCL estimated that if the projected 3.8% COLA took effect today, average benefits would rise by $73.62 from $1,937.53 to $2,011.15.

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The estimate of a 3.8% COLA was the same as last month’s prediction, and is down slightly from the 3.9% projection made in April.

By law, the annual Social Security COLA is calculated using the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ CPI inflation data for the months of July, August and September. The announcement of the final COLA amount typically occurs in mid-October with the agency’s release of September inflation data.

NATIONAL DEBT INTEREST AND ENTITLEMENT SPENDING PUSH FY2026 FEDERAL BUDGET DEFICIT TOWARD $2 TRILLION

Man holds Social Security card near cash

Social Security benefits could rise 3.8% in 2027, according to the latest estimate of next year’s COLA. (Getty Images/iStock)

“We’re seeing inflation on the rise when more than half of seniors already can’t afford basic living standards,” said TSCL Executive Director Shannon Benton after the release of the group’s June estimate that also projected a 3.8% COLA for 2027.

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“We’re talking about food, a roof over their head, and transportation. Many seniors already have to skip doctor’s appointments due to costs, which costs all of us more in the long run when we swap preventative care for emergency care,” she added.

SOCIAL SECURITY HAS LESS THAN 10 YEARS BEFORE RESERVES ARE EXHAUSTED, NEW TRUSTEES REPORT WARNS

Woman holds sign at Social Security headquarters

Social Security COLA aims to keep benefits on pace with inflation. (Wesley Lapointe/For The Washington Post via Getty Images)

The latest CPI inflation data showed prices were up 3.5% from a year ago in June, a level that’s well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and creates significant pressure on household budgets as wage gains may not keep up with the rising cost of living.

The CPI-W, which is the version of the inflation metric used in calculating Social Security’s COLA, was up 3.5% from a year ago in June.

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A larger COLA would also exacerbate the financial issues facing Social Security, which is on a path that would result in the insolvency of a key trust fund that could in turn cause benefit cuts.

AMERICANS RETHINK SOCIAL SECURITY TIMING AS LONGER LIFESPANS AND INSOLVENCY FEARS RAISE THE STAKES

People wait in line for Social Security checks

Social Security’s key trust fund is facing depletion in 2032, which would prompt automatic benefit cuts if Congress doesn’t act. (Getty Images/stock)

The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) estimated in May that a 3.8% COLA in 2027 would worsen Social Security’s fiscal shortfall by about $300 billion over the next decade and advance the insolvency of a key trust fund by three months from late 2032.

Once the trust fund is depleted, the Social Security Administration will be required by law to cut benefits to match incoming payroll tax revenues, which CRFB estimates will result in a 25% cut for beneficiaries that would “erase almost a decade’s worth of COLA increases.”

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Form 4 Hexcel Corp For: 15 July

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Form 4 Hexcel Corp For: 15 July

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Bank Clients Can’t Stop Trading Stocks

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Alphabet Is Selling 100-Year Debt as Part of a Big Bond Sale

Wall Street’s business of facilitating trades on behalf of clients has been fast-growing, and analysts were closely watching whether momentum would continue. Across the Street, fees from stock trades shot up, while fees related to bonds, commodities and other non-equity products also rose.

Goldman Sachs’s equity trading revenue rose 72% from a year ago, while fixed income, commodities and currency trading was up 32%.

At JPMorgan, stock trading revenue was up 86% from a year ago and fixed income was up 6%.

Bank of America’s sales and trading revenue for equities was up 70%, while FICC was up about 9%.

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United Airlines (UAL) 2Q 2026 earnings

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United Airlines (UAL) 2Q 2026 earnings

A United Airlines plane takes off from the Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport on June 9, 2026 in Fort Lauderdale, Florida.

Joe Raedle | Getty Images

United Airlines‘ second-quarter results came in ahead of Wall Street estimates, but billions of dollars in added fuel costs continue to weigh on earnings, the carrier said Wednesday.

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Here is what United Airlines reported for the quarter that ended June 30 compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on estimates compiled by LSEG:

  • Earnings per share: $1.99 adjusted vs. $1.88 expected
  • Revenue: $17.67 billion vs. $17.61 billion expected

United forecast third-quarter adjusted earnings per share of between $2.50 and $3.50, compared with analysts’ estimates for $3.60 a share. It estimated full-year adjusted earnings per share of between $9 and $11, the higher end of the range of the adjusted $7 to $11 a share it forecast in April, when it cut its January forecast after the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran in late February.

According to Argus data published by industry group Airlines for America, jet fuel prices at major U.S. airports are up 34% in July alone through Tuesday amid a rollercoaster of escalating and deescalating conflict between the U.S. and Iran. Jet fuel is the largest cost for airlines after labor.

United said the higher fuel prices could add nearly $6 billion to its expenses this year compared with what it expected at the start of 2026, and that its second-quarter fuel costs rose 84% from last year to $2.3 billion. Those estimates were made based on Tuesday’s fuel prices. It said it would cover up to as much as 90% of its higher costs this quarter and all of it in the fourth quarter.

Rival Delta Air Lines also said it is passing on more of those higher costs to flyers. The airlines said demand has remained strong despite higher fares.

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United said it is updating its forecast to include the most recent fuel prices because costs have been so volatile. Since the beginning of July, fuel prices have hit adjusted earnings for the third quarter by $1.12 per share, it said.

The carrier could further cut its capacity plans because of higher fuel costs this year, it said in a filing.

United expanded flying 3.5% second quarter. Its revenue rose 16% from a year earlier to $17.67 billion, with total unit revenue up 12.1% in the second quarter from last year. That was the highest unit revenue growth since early 2023, according to FactSet.

The airline reported higher revenue for premium, corporate and no-frills basic economy tickets, as well as rising unit revenue for both domestic and international trips.

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Net income fell more than 17% to $805 million, or $2.46 a share. Adjusting for one-time items United reported $649 million, or $1.99 a share on an adjusted basis.

United executives will hold an earnings call Thursday at 10:30 a.m. ET.

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United Airlines Holdings earnings beat by $0.14, revenue topped estimates

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United Airlines Holdings earnings beat by $0.14, revenue topped estimates

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Brewdog co-founder James Watt launches bid to buy back beer firm

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Catherine Turnbull is smiling at the camera. She is wearing a pale blue t-shirt and dark framed glasses. Catherine has short light brown hair. She has some bushes behind her with are slightly out of focus.

Watt recently apologised to staff and investors for the “many mistakes” made in the management of the company, admitting that it tried to diversify too quickly.

Brewdog’s brash marketing style had regularly sparked controversy, but the firm also faced criticism for its treatment of investors and staff.

A 2022 a BBC Disclosure investigation uncovered claims of inappropriate behaviour by Watt towards female staff, and revealed that Brewdog violated import laws and fabricated many of its marketing stories.

In 2024, the firm faced a backlash after revealing it would no longer hire new staff on the real living wage, instead paying the lower legal minimum wage.

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Watt denied any wrongdoing alleged in the film and threatened to sue the BBC. He later said he sometimes missed social cues because he has autism.

A complaint to broadcasting regulator Ofcom was rejected.

Brewdog said it was putting in a range of measures to improve workplace culture following the release of the programme.

Tilray and Second Best have been asked to comment on Watt’s letter.

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Salary information to be shown on job ads under new laws

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Catherine Turnbull is smiling at the camera. She is wearing a pale blue t-shirt and dark framed glasses. Catherine has short light brown hair. She has some bushes behind her with are slightly out of focus.

Employers will have to publish salary information in job adverts under government plans to rewrite anti-discrimination laws.

Details of other job conditions could also have to be disclosed to candidates, under the draft proposals.

Ministers argue greater transparency will help people navigate the jobs market and could prevent future pay discrimination claims.

However, details of exactly what salary information will have to be shared are yet to be hammered out.

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Officials plan to consult on whether exact salaries will have to be displayed, or potentially a pay range or “benchmark rate” for open roles.

They also plan to ask industry groups whether information beyond basic salary, such as bonuses, should be made available.

Employers that do not publish a job advert for a role would have to give candidates the information in writing prior to a job interview.

In a policy document, the Cabinet Office said salary information would help jobseekers make informed application decisions, and improve the hiring process for companies by weeding out candidates with “misaligned pay expectations”.

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Citing various academic studies, it also said transparency would help prevent “unequal outcomes” when salaries are offered to successful applicants.

“When pay is opaque, salary decisions can be influenced by stereotypes – such as stereotypes of women, ethnic minorities, or disabled people,” it added.

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JP Morgan moving closer to a milestone no bank has ever reached: A $1 trillion market value

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JP Morgan moving closer to a milestone no bank has ever reached: A $1 trillion market value
JP Morgan, which is currently valued at about $940 billion, is within striking distance of $1 trillion mark after a strong run in its shares. The stock has gained about 6% so far this year and is up around 20% over the past 12 months. A move past $1 trillion would place JPMorgan in a rare club mostly dominated by technology companies such as Tesla, Meta and Broadcom.

It would also show how far the bank has pulled ahead of its rivals under CEO Jamie Dimon, who has led the lender for nearly two decades.

Record profit lifts shares
JPMorgan shares touched a record high on Tuesday after the bank reported a strong quarterly performance. The lender posted the highest profit ever by a US bank, helped by strength across its businesses.JPMorgan has a larger balance sheet than most peers and has built leadership across investment banking, consumer banking, credit cards, trading and lending. That gives it more ways to benefit when markets improve and when consumer activity remains steady.

The latest boost has come from Wall Street dealmaking. Investment banking activity has picked up as companies return to mergers, acquisitions and capital market transactions. If deal volumes stay strong through the rest of 2026, JPMorgan could see further gains in fees and earnings.CFO Jeremy Barnum said the bank’s investment banking pipeline was robust, adding that current activity levels were encouraging more activity.
Also Read: ‘We faltered, did not move quickly:’ How IBM CEO Arvind Krishna’s statement led to $70 billion wipeout
Jamie Dimon premium
JPMorgan’s rise has also been tied closely to Dimon. Investors have long assigned what is often called a “Jamie premium” to the stock, reflecting confidence in his leadership, risk control and ability to steer the bank through crises.

Dimon took charge before the global financial crisis and helped JPMorgan emerge stronger than many rivals. The bank has since used its size, capital strength and brand to gain market share.

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The board has stepped up succession planning in recent years, but Dimon’s influence remains a major part of the stock’s appeal. Investors continue to see JPMorgan as the best-run large US bank.

Valuation test for investors
At around $940 billion in market value, JPMorgan is already far ahead of other global banks. But getting to $1 trillion will also raise expectations.

The stock trades at 14.63 times expected earnings over the next 12 months, compared with 13.58 times for the S&P 500 banks index, according to Reuters.

For years, trillion-dollar valuations were mostly reserved for technology companies. JPMorgan’s push toward that level shows how dominant the bank has become in global finance.

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(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)

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Terreno Realty Is Great, But We Sold (NYSE:TRNO)

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Terreno Realty Is Great, But We Sold (NYSE:TRNO)

Cute Biewer Yorkshire-Terrier dog outdoors in summer

ArtMarie/E+ via Getty Images

We recently closed out of our position in Terreno (TRNO) and wanted to walk readers through our thought process and how we look at the company today.

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The REIT Forum

We sold shares on 7/9/2026. For readers interested, we will post all the sales at the end of the article.

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Seeking Alpha

Before we sold, Terreno was flirting with the border between our neutral/overpriced ranges. Shares were trading at 31.4x consensus forward AFFO. Technically, it’s probably a little bit lower if we factor in that Q2 2027 AFFO per share will probably be higher than Q2 2026 AFFO per share. However, even adjusting for higher AFFO, the multiple would still be very large.

July 9th Thought Process

Terreno has been one of my favorite REITs for several years. I viewed it as a great long-term position. However, I am looking at shares trading over 30x forward AFFO while the 2-year Treasury is over 4% (4.16% presently), the 10-year is at 4.535%, and the 30-year is at 5.054%. I’m feeling a bit skeptical about multiples around 30x AFFO (or higher) in this environment. If we assume that REITs with more “normal” growth levels typically trade around 14x to 20x AFFO, then we have to assume several years of strong growth. While that’s certainly possible, I wouldn’t want to use it as the base scenario.

AFFO Estimates And Multiple

Our sheets are currently using a forward estimate of $2.19.

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If we were to use AFFO estimates for the next 4 quarters starting with Q3 2026, then the consensus estimate would increase to $2.25. That’s better, but not substantially better.

Even if we use the $2.25 value, at $68.68 shares would be trading a hair over 30.5x forward AFFO estimates.

If we use $2.18 or $2.19, the multiple is 31.36x or 31.50x, respectively.

That’s a pretty high multiple given the Treasury yields. While I still really like TRNO, I felt it was prudent to harvest gains here.

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The REIT Forum

Note: TRNO has rallied even higher since we closed our position. As of 7/15/2026, shares are at $72.09.

Why TRNO Can Achieve A High Multiple

Our thesis played out well with the industrial real estate portfolio delivering strong growth in same property NOI (Net Operating Income). That drove significant growth in AFFO per share, which supports TRNO trading at pretty high multiples of AFFO per share. The market likes seeing strong growth across several key indicators. However, the valuation still hit a point where I felt it was prudent to just take the gains.

Issuing Shares

TRNO was issuing equity during Q1 2026:

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TRNO

They felt it was reasonable to issue it at $64.85, and I agree with them. That was a very reasonable price for choosing to issue new equity. Issuing at $68.68 (5.9% higher) would make even more sense. That’s the right choice for management as they look to maximize value for shareholders.

Impact Of Treasury Rates

The last time I purchased TRNO was in 2023 at $62.99. That’s not dramatically lower than the current price. The AFFO multiple was similar. What changed?

Well, the interest rate scenario changed quite a bit as shown by the 10-year and 30-year Treasury rates:

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MBSLive

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MBSLive

The 10-year Treasury yield is up 60 basis points (that means 0.60%) and currently trending higher (based on the current yield relative to the moving averages). The 30-year is up just over 100 basis points and also in a trend higher.

That feels ugly. It’s been less of an issue for TRNO since they have such little debt on their balance sheet. Consequently, they have been less exposed to interest rate pressure than most equity REITs. However, it makes it harder to justify high multiples.

Adjusted EBITDA/Total Enterprise Value

Doing a full model for “Market Implied Cap Rate” is pretty slow. In theory it seems like it would be quick to update, but in practice it can get messy doing quarter after quarter.

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A simpler method is calculating adjusted EBITDA to Total Enterprise Value. It is less precise (which is negative), but it factors in overhead (which is positive).

Often there won’t be preferred stock or minority interest, which makes it even simpler.

The bigger question is simply which version of EBITDA we want to use. Do we use the most recent quarter? Do we try to run a forward estimate? Sometimes the answers matter a great deal, and sometimes they don’t. In this case, the picture is pretty clear regardless. One adjustment I really like to make, though, is to revise “adjusted EBITDA” by deducting stock-based compensation. That’s fundamentally overhead by another name.

Goal Of Calculation

This is a way to approximate the amount of adjusted EBITDA the company is producing relative to the total value assigned to the company.

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It can be a quick way to compare REITs. However, investors should be aware that all REITS do not simply deserve to trade at the same valuation. That would be silly. Some properties are simply more desirable, and some management teams are superior. For now I’m simply going to refer to adjusted EBITDA minus stock-based compensation as “revised EBITDA.” I wanted to compare TRNO with Rexford (REXR).

Using Q1 2026, I came to the following estimates when removing stock-based compensation:

  • TRNO at $68.62 has a revised EBITDA yield of 3.96%. This is why it makes sense for TRNO to issue shares.

  • REXR at $34.42 has a revised EBITDA yield of 6.12%. This is why it makes sense for REXR to repurchase shares.

Note: We don’t want to use growth rates in adjusted EBITDA or revised EBITDA unless we control for the expected change in the shares outstanding and net debt outstanding.

That’s the gap in valuation. It is very material.

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Hypothetically, what if REXR climbed all the way to our “overpriced” level? The revised EBITDA yield would drop from 6.12% to 4.79%.

Final Thoughts

I expect that TRNO will do a better job (than REXR) of growing every metric over the next year or two. However, I don’t expect it to be remotely large enough to offset the enormous gap in these valuation metrics.

We currently view TRNO as overpriced despite the company’s strong execution. Even after our sale, shares continued climbing. We’ll continue watching the company closely because it’s still one of my favorite REITs. I simply don’t like today’s valuation. Here is the record of our sale:

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The REIT Forum

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Verizon: Executing Amid Industry Uncertainty, Raising My Target

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Verizon Stock: Caution Is Warranted, Despite The Strong Fundamentals (NYSE:VZ)

Verizon: Executing Amid Industry Uncertainty, Raising My Target

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Oakmark Select Fund Q2 2026 Commentary

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Qualcomm: M&A Driven Growth Strategy Pays Off - Dip Buying Opportunity Ahead

Oakmark Select Fund Q2 2026 Commentary

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