By Moira Woodhull

Constrained supply and persistent consumer demand for beef have led to near record-high prices across the cattle value chain. Typically, high-price environments eventually spur herd expansion driven by producer decisions. This ultimately brings forth an expanding supply and puts downward pressure on prices, transitioning into a lower price environment for the cattle industry.

Instead, challenges like sustained drought, high cost of feed and the New World screwworm outbreak have disrupted this cycle, stifling supply while prices remain high. Recent data suggests that consumers may finally be reaching their ceiling when it comes to retail beef prices, supported by growing production and availability of broilers (chicken). As the Mexican border begins its phased reopening to livestock trade in August, the industry will continue to closely watch for signs that the cattle cycle has reached its bottom.

Consumer Demand During the Grilling Season

Summer marks the traditional peak of grilling season. Holidays like Memorial Day, the Fourth of July and Labor Day drive significant short-term spikes in meat demand, often followed by post-holiday lulls. While consumer demand for beef remains resilient, the broader market continues to face significant supply constraints, sustaining near-record retail prices.

Cattle Cycle Contractionary Period

The cattle cycle represents the multi-year expansion and contraction of calf and cattle inventory in the United States as producers respond to price signals in the market. High prices incentivize producers to retain heifers and expand their herds to capitalize on potentially higher returns. Conversely, low prices encourage producers to send animals through the supply chain for processing to limit operational losses.

Cattle production requires substantial capital, including land and feed, among numerous other costs, like equipment and veterinary care. Herd expansion is a multi-year investment, as it often takes up to three years from the moment a producer decides to retain a heifer until her offspring reaches an average market weight of 1,200 to 1,500 pounds.

Given the lengthy process of raising calves and the significant capital required (not to mention the opportunity cost of holding back heifers and forgoing immediate sales), producers are incentivized to expand their herd during high-price environments, where the investment is more likely to pay off.

In low-price environments, producers are discouraged from retaining cost-intensive animals to receive relatively lower returns. Instead, calves are often moved to backgrounding or feedlot operations to continue gaining weight until they reach market weight, at which point they are ready for processing.

As cattle producers respond to price signals, they decide whether to expand their herd or push cattle through the value chain. Because of this long lifecycle, it takes years before impacts to supply are visible in cattle inventories.

With a nine-month gestation cycle for calving, weaning of calves and time spent grazing and feeding, it can take up to three years for new supply to appear in the market. That is, a producer may decide today to retain heifers with the aim of herd expansion, but an increase in slaughter-ready inventory won’t be apparent until multiple years later.

Currently, the cattle cycle is in a contractionary phase. Herd sizes are near historic lows, severely constraining market supply. Simultaneously, consumer demand has remained strong for beef products. This combination of herd lows and strong consumer demand has sustained near record-high prices across the supply chain.

Under normal conditions, today’s elevated prices would typically spur expansion. Instead, severe drought conditions restricting available pasture for grazing, elevated feed costs and the closure of the Mexican border to prevent the spread of New World screwworm have posed challenges to herd rebuilding. While the USDA has begun a phased reopening of the Mexican border, the supply impact will take time to materialize.

Low Supply, Strong Demand and Protein Substitution

Constrained supply and sturdy demand have sustained high retail prices, evident in the trend of rising ground beef prices. Given these sustained high prices in beef, consumers now appear to be pivoting toward other, comparatively lower-priced alternatives, like chicken.

The USDA’s August 2026 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report projects annual beef production at 24,967 million pounds, down nearly 4% from 26,003 million pounds in 2025. On the contrary, 2026 broiler production is projected to reach 49,623 million pounds, up 3.4% from 48,006 million pounds in 2025.

Per-capita domestic availability, or “disappearance”, is used as a proxy for domestic consumption and currently reflects gradual shifts in the beef and broiler markets. As of August 2026, the USDA forecasts per-capita retail beef availability falling slightly and per-capita retail broiler availability trending upward. Even so, beef demand remains resilient, showing minor signs of softening despite historical price headwinds.

Managing Risk with CME Group Lean Beef Trim Futures and Options

As the industry navigates supply challenges and uncertainty over when the cattle cycle will bottom, tight inventories are contributing to sharp price swings at the processing level. Key processing inputs to ground beef continue to experience price volatility, as seen in price swings for both 50% lean beef trim and 90% lean beef trim.

With the introduction of 50% and 90% Lean Beef Trim futures and options, CME Group now offers market participants hedging tools across the entire beef value chain, from feeder and live cattle to beef trim.

Original Post

Amazon secretly overcharged more than a million advertising customers by manipulating the online auctions it uses to set ad prices, according to a lawsuit filed by the US Federal Trade Commission and a bipartisan group of 22 states.

The suit, filed on Monday in the company’s home state of Washington, claims the alleged scheme has likely netted Amazon $20bn from advertising customers since 2019. “Amazon overrides and replaces the actual auction results with higher prices set by Amazon to increase its profits,” the complaint states.

Amazon said in a statement that it “strongly disagrees” with the premise that it misled advertisers and called the suit “misguided”.

The case centres on the auctions behind the Sponsored Products and Sponsored Brands ads that brands and sellers compete to place when consumers search for products using keywords on Amazon’s ecommerce platform. Those placements are auctioned off to the highest bidder.

The complaint accuses Amazon of secretly charging advertisers more in so called “second price” auctions, in which the winning bidder expects to pay one cent more than the next highest bid. In practice, the lawsuit alleges, Amazon has charged its Sponsored Products advertisers their own winning bid close to 80 per cent of the time. The methods were spurred, the complaint says, because the company “was unhappy about how much revenue its advertising auctions were generating”.

FTC chairman Andrew Ferguson said: “Amazon has millions of advertising customers who were misled into paying significantly higher prices.” The regulator says more than 500,000 small and medium-sized businesses are among the advertisers affected.

Amazon responded that the FTC “fundamentally misunderstands how advertisers operate”. “Advertisers adjust bids based on real-world performance, not descriptions of auction mechanics,” the company said. “Average winning bids fell 50% from 2019 to 2025 on Sponsored Products search ads, and roughly 92% of placed ads are not given to the highest bid.”

The FTC, a US consumer watchdog, and the states also argue that shoppers have been harmed because the extra costs are passed on. “Consumers are suffering, have suffered, and will continue to suffer substantial injury as a result,” the complaint states. Amazon rejected that framing: “The FTC wants the public to believe this case is about higher prices for consumers. It is not.” The company’s shares fell after the lawsuit was announced, closing 2.5 per cent lower on Monday.

For the many UK small businesses that sell through Amazon, the cost of reaching customers on the platform is a familiar grievance. Researchers have previously reported that Amazon tripled sellers’ fees in Europe while advertising costs surged, and more than 200,000 UK third party sellers are pursuing a £2.7bn claim against the company at the Competition Appeal Tribunal over alleged abuse of its dominant market position.

The new case also extends a long running fight between Amazon and the US regulator. The FTC and 17 state attorneys general had already sued the company over claims it used monopoly power to inflate prices and punish sellers who offered lower prices elsewhere. And last year Amazon paid $2.5bn to settle FTC allegations that it enrolled millions of consumers in its Prime subscription service without their consent and knowingly made it difficult to cancel, a sum that included civil penalties and consumer refunds.

Jamie Young

Jamie Young is Senior Reporter at Business Matters, covering SME finance, employment law and Westminster policy since 2016. He has reported on every Budget and Autumn Statement since 2018, helped make sense of the ‘covid era’ and the bounce-back loan scheme from launch through the fraud investigations, and broke the magazine’s coverage of the 2024 late-payment reforms. He joined Business Matters straight from completing his BA in Administration from Exeter University and is NCTJ-qualified. Reach him at jyoung@cbmeg.co.uk

From 16 October 2026, Thailand’s CAAT will revise checked baggage procedures to enhance security. Bags may be inspected without owners present. Updates and guidance will be provided by TAT and airlines.

New Baggage Procedures in Thailand

The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) is alerting travelers about updated baggage procedures effective 16 October 2026. Passengers should check guidelines from their airlines, departure airports, and the Civil Aviation Authority of Thailand (CAAT) for the latest on prohibited items and baggage rules. CAAT is implementing these changes to enhance security and streamline the screening of checked luggage, with existing measures remaining active until the transition.

Baggage Inspection Protocols

The new procedures allow for luggage inspection without the owner’s presence if suspicious items are detected. These checks will occur in a controlled area and be recorded for transparency. Notification will follow any inspection, ensuring passengers are informed. Similar protocols are already in use in countries like Singapore, Japan, and the United States. This approach minimizes delays and addresses security concerns without needing passenger involvement.

Recommendations and Resources

CAAT advises using TSA-approved locks and avoiding valuables or essential items in checked luggage. Passengers should also confirm baggage regulations for international connections, as rules differ across countries. Any issues during inspections can be reported to airlines or through CAAT’s complaint system. TAT promises updates if further operational guidelines are released before the new rules commence.

Source : Thailand introduces enhanced baggage screening procedures: information for air travellers