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Mumbai: Indian equities are tipped to extend their losses early this week and the rupee will likely be on a sliding gradient, as Donald Trump’s weekend war rhetoric is seen keeping oil prices elevated and investor mood skittish on Dalal Street. The US President has sought more strikes against Iran and rallied traditional allies to force open an energy supply choke point.

Last week, the Sensex and Nifty ended at their lowest since April 2025, stretching their losses to 8-9% since the war began two weeks ago. Although equities appear oversold after their recent rout, oil prices above $100 a barrel are making investors reluctant to deploy cash in a hurry.

With Trump theoretically expanding the scope of attacks by threatening further strikes on Iran’s Kharg Island – home to the country’s oil exports infrastructure – the market is resigning itself to the fact that the conflict between US-Israel and Iran may not end soon. Tehran has pledged to respond even as Washington has urged the UK to send battleships to the region to force open the Strait of Hormuz.

“It is not the fog of war, but a fog of words that has led to elevated uncertainty around how this war will play out,” said Barclays’ economists, including Christian Keller, in a client note over the weekend. “In turn, this has led to violent swings in the price of oil and financial assets.”

Crude Risks

The rupee, meanwhile, has slid 1.6% since the start of the war despite central bank interventions, and the currency closed at a record low of 92.48 to the dollar on Friday.
Market participants expect the rupee – the worst performing Asian monetary unit in 2025 and on track to feature in the lower half of the leader board this quarter as well – to drift lower if crude oil prices leap past $100 a barrel.
“The risk of crude is going to stay high, and the outlook for the rupee remains cautious as it could create macroeconomic challenges for the Indian economy,” said Jateen Trivedi, VP research analyst, currency, at LKP Securities. “In the near term, the rupee is expected to trade within a range of 91.90-92.80, with crude price movements and dollar index trends remaining the key drivers.”
A Reuters report said Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude to trend above $100 in March and around $85 in April, before a gradual easing in supplies – unless the war is protracted – helps the gauge to settle at low 70s to the dollar later in the year. Brent oil surged to a touching distance of $120 a barrel last Monday, a level not seen since the immediate aftermath of the Ukraine invasion by Russia.

The surge in crude oil prices and the resultant slide in the rupee have kept investors on the sidelines, especially amid expectations the central bank interventions might do little to stem the rupee’s rout. Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have continued to pare holdings in Indian equities through March. On March 13, they sold shares worth ₹10,716 crore.

Shares of Pigeon brand owner Stove Kraft, Prestige brand owner TTK Prestige, Crompton appliance maker Butterfly Gandhimathi Appliances and others will tumbled up to 5% on Monday even as cooking gas supply concerns due to the war in West Asia have boosted sales of induction cooktops and electric kettles.

The drop in stock prices comes as investors rushed to book profits following a massive rally last week. Further, hopes of possible talks between US and Iran also eased LPG gas fears slightly. US President Donald Trump said Sunday that the United States was in discussions with Iran as the war enters its third week but that Tehran was not ready for a deal to end it.

“Yes, we’re talking to them,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One, without detailing the nature of such talks, when asked if there was any diplomacy under way to end a conflict that has spread across the Middle East and roiled global markets. Iran, on the other hand, has denied the claims.

LPG supply constraint is significant for India as as it is the world’s second-largest LPG importer. Several restaurants across the country have run out of gas supplies or switched to simpler menu items that require little to no cooking gas.

For induction cooktop players, this means more sales. Tata Group’s Croma said it has observed a threefold jump in demand for induction cooktops over the past few days, The Economic Times reported earlier. Further, Stove Kraft said its average weekly online sales have jumped four times.

“At Croma, we have observed a sharp and immediate uptick in demand for induction cooktops over the past few days. Our average daily run rate has surged significantly,” Infiniti Retail Ltd (Croma) CEO & MD Shibashish Roy said.
India is also grappling with a sharp LPG shortage as the ongoing war between Iran and the US-Israel alliance has led to the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy supply chokepoints. Tanker movement through the route has been severely disrupted as Iran continues to target vessels attempting to pass through the corridor. The situation has forced several global suppliers to declare force majeure on gas shipments.Despite assurances from US President Donald Trump, the strait effectively remains closed to traffic. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has warned that oil shipments from the Gulf will be blocked unless US and Israeli attacks stop.

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Gas crisis in India

The supply disruption linked to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed up gas prices in India. Domestic cooking gas prices have increased by Rs 60 per cylinder, while commercial LPG prices have risen by Rs 114.5.

Shortages have been reported in multiple cities including Mumbai and Bengaluru. In some areas, restaurants have warned they may have to shut operations because of inadequate fuel supplies.

Meanwhile, the Indian Railway Catering and Tourism Corporation (IRCTC) has asked all its licensees to shift to alternate cooking methods such as microwave ovens and electric induction systems at railway food centres.

Sensex, Nifty today: Catch all the LIVE stock market action here

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

Amid heightened global volatility triggered by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a sharp surge in crude oil prices, equity markets across the world have witnessed sharp swings in recent weeks.

While the uncertain macro environment has kept investors on edge, corrections across sectors have also opened up selective opportunities. In an interaction with ETMarkets Smart Talk, Devang Mehta, Deputy Managing Director & CIO – Equity NDPMS at Spark Capital Private Wealth, said that domestic-focused sectors such as power, infrastructure, and auto are beginning to look attractive after the recent market correction.

He also advised investors to stay disciplined, continue their SIPs, and focus on long-term investing rather than reacting to short-term volatility. Edited Excerpts –

Q) Thanks for taking the time out. March has been an absolute roller coaster for equity markets not just for India but across the globe. How are you reading into markets – more pain ahead?

A) The equity markets in March 2026 have indeed experienced extreme volatility, primarily driven by the escalation of a U.S.-Israel war with Iran and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

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This conflict has triggered a “risk-off” environment, characterized by sharp declines in global indices and a surge in crude oil prices past $100–$110 per barrel and foreign outflows as well
The conflict has disrupted roughly 20% of global oil supplies transiting the Strait of Hormuz, raising fears that oil could be on the boil. If the war continues, the collateral and economic damage could lead to more pain.
Though its next to impossible to gauge the intensity and duration of the war, long term investors have to adjust to the volatility and uncertainty.
Indian market has now been going through price correction, valuation correction and time correction since last 19 months and data typically shows that after underperformance and with earnings cycle positively coming back, one needs to stay focused and not panic.

Q) IT sector seems to be the worst hit thanks to the AI commentary but with geopolitical tensions rising other sectors have also started to see some rub-off effect. Any sector(s) that are now available at attractive lev

A) IT has particularly been a hugely underperforming sector and it has its own reasons. But as markets were settling down in February, post a decent budget, good earnings season and a bit of clarity about US tariffs, unfortunately, the Iran & US – Israel war related news took prominence and had its impact on global and our own markets.

With all the newsflow around and India’s sensitivity for the oil and gas dependence, most of our sectors and companies in the indices and even broader markets went through a severe correction.

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Sectors which are domestic centric and have not much of a global exposure should ideally be sought after in the first phase.

Capex oriented sectors like power, HVDC, engineering, capital goods, infrastructure and even discretionary consumption related sectors like auto and auto components have seen meaningful corrections.

Some accumulation here would be a good start to construction of new portfolios. Niche pharmaceuticals and wellness including hospital businesses and few BFSI related companies also qualify for long term investment.

Q) What could be the good, bad and ugly for Indian markets in the near term?

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A) Good – Following a sluggish 2025, India Inc. is expected to see around15% YoY earnings rebound over FY26–FY27.

With India’s valuation premium over other emerging markets compressing, expectations are high for a return of foreign capital in 2026.

Strong SIP-led inflows and retail participation continue to cushion the market against foreign investor volatility.

Headline CPI inflation printed at a benign 2.75% in January 2026, though a new series makes historical comparison difficult.

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Recent pro-growth measures, including income tax & GST rate cuts and interest rate reductions (125 bps cut to 5.25% as of early 2026), aim to stimulate consumption.

Bad – The Indian Rupee recently sank to all-time lows, breaching ₹92.35 against the US Dollar, which threatens to increase “imported inflation”. Pending trade deals with the US is also a overhang. Foreign Institutional Investors have been aggressive net sellers, offloading over ₹32,800 crore in the first week of March 2026 alone.

The Ugly – A major escalation in the Middle East, such as a shutdown of the Hormuz Strait, could push oil prices to unsustainable levels, causing a severe, sudden shock to the Indian economy. If global uncertainty prompts sustained record-breaking selling by foreign institutional investors, market multiples could face intense downward pressure.

Q) FPIs have been net sellers in 2025, and the story continues in 2026 may be for a different reason now. The story seems to be changing around the FDI route as India opens channels for Chinese investment to land into several industries. What are your views?

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A) FPIs have been massive net sellers in India during 2025, driven by high valuation concerns, US tariff anxieties, and a “Sell India, Buy China” trend. The record outflows in 2025 were driven by a “risk-off” sentiment due to high Indian valuations compared to its peers, weak corporate earnings, and global macro headwinds like rising US bond yields.

As of early 2026, FPIs remain cautious. While they briefly turned net buyers in February 2026 following a US-India trade deal, this reversed in March due to escalating Middle East conflicts and a weakening rupee.

India has begun relaxing FDI norms for neighboring countries, including a 60-day fast-track approval for projects, to attract manufacturing investment. This represents a shift from the 2020 restrictions, allowing Chinese capital to enter critical industries.

This policy change aims to bridge the investment gap and boost local manufacturing, even as India manages a massive trade deficit with China. It highlights a strategic move to balance security concerns with economic growth necessities.

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The most striking change is the relaxation of Press Note 3 (2020), which had virtually frozen Chinese investment since the Galwan clash. The story is changing from a broad “avoid China” stance to a calibrated, strategic engagement.

Stock markets have already started pricing this in, with Electronic Manufacturing Services (EMS) and renewable energy stocks surging on the news.

Q) Rupee seems to be hitting fresh lows every week – where do you see the currency headed and how will it impact Indian markets/economy?

A) The Indian Rupee (INR) has indeed been hitting fresh record lows against the US Dollar (USD), falling past the 92 level and touching around 92.35–92.37. This weakness is driven by a combination of high geopolitical tension, rising crude oil prices, and significant foreign capital outflows.

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The rupee is expected to trade in a broad 90–93 range as long as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East persist and oil prices remain high.

As a major importer of crude oil, electronics, and machinery, a weaker rupee makes these inputs significantly costlier. This feeds directly into domestic inflation, raising costs for petrol, diesel, and electronics.

The cost of importing goods is outpacing export growth, widening the current account deficit (CAD). Indian companies with large unhedged foreign currency loans face higher repayment burdens, squeezing their margins.

Q) Will Crude@$100/bbl and above hurt Indian markets and macros? We have been making an investment pitch to the world about our macro stability which could be challenged in the near future. What are your views?

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A) Crude oil prices sustained above $100/bbl pose significant risks to India’s macroeconomic stability by widening the current account deficit (CAD), increasing inflation (by 35–40 bps), and potentially reducing FY27 GDP growth to around 6%.

While this challenges the investment narrative of macro stability and threatens equity market pressure, strong foreign exchange reserves (around $720 billion) and potential for a shorter-duration shock may mitigate long-term damage.

With $720 billion in forex reserves and lower global demand, this shock may be acute rather than prolonged, preventing a structural break.

While a short-term spike causes volatility, a sustained, long-term trend above $100 requires a rebalancing of portfolios towards defensives. The “macro stability” pitch is challenged, but not entirely broken unless the conflict causing the price rise persists for over a long duration.

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Q) How should investors recalibrate their portfolio amid rise in volatility? Any theme/asset classes which they should go overweight or underweight on? (Assuming the person is between 30-40 years)

A) For investors aged 30-40, high volatility is an opportunity to accumulate units at lower costs rather than a reason to panic. With a long-term horizon, the goal is to maintain a high growth, yet resilient portfolio that can withstand short-term shocks.

Continue all Systematic Investment Plans (SIPs). Volatility allows SIPs to purchase a higher number of units at a lower cost, which leads to superior, long-term wealth creation.

Asset allocation according to one’s risk profile, liquidity requirements and life goals are the most critical factors. You don’t lose when markets panic, you lose when you panic.

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Q) Your advise to investors of things which one must avoid doing in the current environment? We have already seen drop in SIP flows by over 3% on a MoM basis.

A) Monthly inflows hit ₹29,845 crore, down 4% from January’s ₹31,002 crore, ending a two-month streak above ₹30,000 crore. The moderation ties to the shorter month, with some end-of-month SIPs shifting to early March.

Market corrections often trigger fear, leading to panic selling, which turns paper losses into permanent losses. In all the market dips, investors who stayed invested recovered their losses, while those who panicked and sold missed the subsequent recovery, and saw a significant, realized drop in their portfolio.

Waiting for a “low point” to invest usually leads to missing out on the best days of the market. Missing the 10 best trading days in a decade can cut your long-term returns by HALF. Historically in Nifty you could have lost 82% of your wealth by sitting out just 2% of the trading days.

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Trying to time the market is a losing strategy because nobody can consistently predict tops and bottoms. Think in terms of years, not months. Volatility is temporary; long-term growth is the target.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)