Strait of Hormuz Remains Heavily Restricted Amid Iran War as Traffic Drops to 5% of Normal

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway linking the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea and critical for global energy supplies, stays under severe restriction more than two months after the outbreak of the U.S.-Israel war with Iran. Shipping traffic has plummeted to roughly 5% of pre-war levels, with only a handful of vessels transiting daily amid competing blockades, sporadic attacks and stalled ceasefire negotiations.

As of May 12, 2026, the strait is not fully closed to all shipping but functions under tight Iranian control and a U.S. naval blockade. Iran has redefined the area as a vastly expanded operational zone, stretching from Jask in the east to Siri Island in the west — roughly 10 times wider than before the conflict. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) enforces selective passage, charging tolls and requiring detailed vessel information for approved transits.

Pre-war, the strait carried about 20-25% of global seaborne oil trade and 20% of liquefied natural gas (LNG), with roughly 138 vessels passing daily. Current data shows just 17 ships in the last 24 hours, moving only about 515,000 deadweight tons — a fraction of the normal 10.3 million. Dozens of vessels loiter outside the area, waiting for safer conditions, while more than 1,500 ships remain stranded inside the Persian Gulf.

Origins of the Crisis

Tensions exploded on Feb. 28, 2026, following U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran responded by restricting access to the strait, declaring vessels linked to the U.S., Israel and their allies as potential targets. On March 27, the IRGC formally announced a closure to adversarial shipping. The U.S. imposed its own blockade on April 13, targeting vessels entering or exiting Iranian ports.

Since then, at least 42 maritime incidents have been reported, including attacks on tankers, drone strikes and seizures. The U.S. has disabled multiple Iranian-flagged vessels, while Iran has conducted strikes on UAE targets and other shipping. A brief U.S. escort operation to guide ships through the strait was paused at Iran’s request to facilitate talks, but progress remains elusive.

Diplomatic Stalemate and Ceasefire Hopes

Ceasefire negotiations hang in the balance. President Donald Trump dismissed Iran’s latest proposal as “garbage,” citing demands that the U.S. recognize Iranian sovereignty over the strait and lift the blockade before broader nuclear talks. Iran insists on control of the waterway as leverage. UN Secretary-General António Guterres has urged urgent de-escalation, warning that prolonged disruption threatens global food security and energy supplies, particularly in Africa.

Qatar has mediated some limited passages, including LNG shipments to Pakistan, but commercial traffic remains minimal. European nations including France and the UK have faced Iranian warnings against deploying naval forces to protect shipping.

Economic Ripple Effects

Oil prices have surged above $130 per barrel at times, though alternative routes and strategic reserves have mitigated immediate shortages. Global supply chains face delays, with shipping lines imposing war-risk surcharges up to $4,000 per container. Fertilizer and LNG flows have nearly halted, raising concerns for agriculture and energy in Asia and Europe.

Gulf producers like the UAE have rerouted some exports via pipelines or by turning off AIS transponders, but risks remain high. Iraq has revived overland routes through Syria for some crude shipments. Analysts warn that a prolonged closure could trigger demand destruction and long-term shifts in energy markets.

Military Posture and Risks

The IRGC Navy has expanded patrols and claims enhanced military significance for the enlarged zone. U.S. forces continue enforcing the blockade, with recent Pentagon-released footage showing strikes on Iranian tankers. Both sides report occasional skirmishes, though a fragile pause in major fighting holds for now.

Commercial operators avoid the area due to canceled insurance coverage and attack risks. Some vessels comply with Iranian rules — paying fees and declaring details — to secure safe passage, effectively acknowledging Tehran’s de facto control during the conflict.

Outlook and Potential Resolutions

No clear timeline exists for full reopening. Experts suggest that even after a ceasefire, clearing mines, restoring confidence and renegotiating security arrangements could take months. The U.S. has signaled willingness to resume escort operations if talks collapse, while Iran maintains it will keep restrictions until its demands are met.

The crisis underscores the strait’s enduring vulnerability as a geopolitical chokepoint. For now, selective transits by “friendly” or compliant vessels provide minimal relief, but the vast majority of global energy trade through the region remains paralyzed. As day 73 of restrictions passes, pressure mounts on negotiators in Washington, Tehran and regional capitals to find a path toward de-escalation before economic damage becomes irreversible.

Maritime security firms and insurers continue monitoring the situation closely. Shippers are advised to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope where possible, despite added costs and delays. The world watches as diplomacy struggles to reopen one of the planet’s most vital arteries for energy and commerce.