Last week was momentous. There was a fragile 60-day de-escalation during negotiations between Washington and Tehran. However, the allies of both (Hezbollah and Israel) continue to clash, stalling talks. Still, oil prices tumbled 7-9%. At the same time, a new era at the Federal

Mystery has long shrouded Jane Street, the Wall Street trading giant. Its traders rely on proprietary algorithms, making it hard to understand how the firm generates all its profits. It’s privately owned and only trades with its own money, so its moves are difficult to track. It’s also an unusually flat organization, with no one leader at its helm to speak on business television or serve as its public face.

The firm’s location adds to its enigma. Jane Street occupies a nondescript office building in Brookfield Place across from the World Trade Center, rather than the Greenwich Village street it randomly picked for its name. 

Now, as the firm pushes to become an artificial-intelligence powerhouse, it’s edging into the spotlight.

Jane Street has surged in size from a handful of staffers when it was founded 26 years ago to 3,500 employees, and it wants to get much bigger, with plans to recruit more than 500 employees this year. To become a major AI investor and supercharge its trading with the technology, it needs to catch the attention of AI startups and talent.

As the 2026 World Cup moves past the midpoint of group play, betting markets and prediction exchanges have converged on a clear, if still fluid, picture of which national teams look most capable of lifting the trophy come the tournament’s conclusion. Here are the five teams currently rated as the strongest contenders, based on the latest odds and on-field performances through the opening rounds of group play.

1. France

France has emerged as the clear betting favorite after a dominant start to the tournament. France is now the clear favorite to win the 2026 World Cup after beating Senegal 3-1 in its opening game. French superstar Kylian Mbappé scored twice in the opening win.

That early result triggered a significant market shift away from Spain, the tournament’s other pre-tournament co-favorite. BetMGM has since responded by moving France into the +375 favorite, while sliding Spain out a bit to the +500 second choice. One World Cup outlet noted that France surpassed Spain atop Kalshi’s outright market after La Roja’s scoreless draw with Cape Verde.

France’s path forward also looks comparatively favorable. Les Bleus will face Norway and Iraq in their next two group stage matches as they eye a deep tournament run, giving manager Didier Deschamps’s side a clear opportunity to build momentum heading into the knockout rounds.

2. Spain

Despite their stumble against Cape Verde, Spain remains squarely in the championship conversation given the overall strength and depth of their roster. Spain played to a 0-0 draw as a -1200 favorite against Cape Verde, in its first World Cup, a +2800 underdog. “It’s a huge result. One of the most shocking results at the World Cup that you’ll probably ever see,” BetMGM trading manager Seamus Magee said. “It killed a ton of parlays and same-game parlays. But I think Spain will be all right. Spain lost to Switzerland in Game 1 in 2010. They can regroup.”

Analysts continue to cite squad depth as Spain’s defining structural advantage heading into the knockout stage. The leading teams can rotate key players across their matches without a significant drop in quality. Spain, France, and England all have two competitive players for every position, a depth advantage that often proves decisive across a long, physically demanding tournament.

3. England

England has steadily climbed the odds board as the tournament has progressed, with the team’s tournament draw and squad depth giving manager Thomas Tuchel’s side a realistic path deep into the competition. Under Thomas Tuchel, England’s squad depth and tournament draw give them a realistic chance of reaching the latter stages for the first time since 1990.

England and Argentina have surpassed former third-choice Portugal, which suffered a draw with Congo, further cementing the Three Lions’ position among the tournament’s top tier of contenders. England’s roster also benefits from elite individual talent at key positions, with attacking firepower at the top, including players like Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham, considered a structural edge in knockout football given how often individual moments of quality decide tight elimination matches.

4. Argentina

The reigning champions remain firmly entrenched among the tournament’s top contenders, aided by a group draw that has allowed them to manage their workload through the early rounds. Argentina, in Group J, has a manageable draw that should allow the team to conserve energy for the knockout rounds, a structural advantage shared with England heading into the tournament’s more demanding later stages.

Argentina’s continued presence near the top of the betting markets also reflects the broader value placed on teams with reliable penalty-kick takers and proven knockout-stage performers, a category that has historically included Lionel Messi and that continues to apply to Argentina’s current generation of players even as the squad transitions to its next core of stars.

5. Brazil

Despite a shaky start that included a draw with Morocco, Brazil has rebounded to qualify for the knockout stage and remains one of the sport’s most talented rosters on paper. Brazil became the first South American team to qualify for the Round of 32 after clinching a 3-0 win against Haiti. The Seleção have taken four points from their first two games, but traders are unconvinced, with Brazil now priced at just 6.9% with Kalshi and 5.9% with Polymarket to lift the trophy.

Analysts have continued to flag genuine star power as the basis for Brazil’s case, even amid lingering doubts about overall tactical cohesion. Vinícius Júnior and Raphinha give them pace, flair, and genuine match-winning quality, but Group C — featuring Morocco, Scotland, and Haiti — is trickier than it first looked, as that opening stalemate showed. The doubt is cohesion. Ancelotti is elite at club level, but international football gives him far less time to build rhythm.

A Notable Riser Outside the Top Five: The United States

While France, Spain, England, Argentina, and Brazil currently occupy the top tier of championship contenders, the co-host United States has emerged as the tournament’s most significant mover in the betting markets following its strong start. The U.S. men’s national team could not have dreamed of a better start to the tournament. After dominating Paraguay 4-1 in the opener last week, the U.S. responded with a commanding 2-0 win over Australia. The USA has now won two straight men’s World Cup matches for the second time in history.

Prior to the tournament, the U.S. was +5500 to win the tournament. Now, after its group stage dominance, USA is +3300 to win the World Cup, its lowest mark since the odds were released back in December — a dramatic shift that, while still leaving the Americans well outside the top tier of true favorites, reflects genuine momentum behind the co-host nation as the tournament progresses.

With the expanded 48-team tournament still working through the remainder of group play, the betting markets and prediction exchanges are likely to continue shifting rapidly as more results come in and the field narrows toward the knockout stage. France’s current position atop the oddsboard reflects both its dominant opening performance and a comparatively favorable remaining group schedule, but as Spain’s stumble against Cape Verde demonstrated, even the tournament’s most heavily favored sides remain vulnerable to upset in a format that has already produced some of the most shocking individual results in recent World Cup history. With the knockout rounds still weeks away, the gap between these top five contenders and the rest of the field is likely to come into much clearer focus once the group stage concludes entirely.

TUCSON, Arizona — A retired FBI agent has publicly outlined 10 investigative steps that she believes could advance the case of missing Arizona woman Nancy Guthrie, whose disappearance more than 100 days ago has drawn increasing scrutiny of law enforcement efforts.

Jennifer Coffinader, who has closely followed developments in the high-profile case, shared her suggestions via social media, criticizing what she described as overlooked opportunities by authorities. Guthrie was last seen at her home in the Catalina Foothills area near Tucson on Jan. 31.

Coffinader’s recommendations include updating billboards featuring images of the so-called “Porch Guy” captured on doorbell camera footage outside Guthrie’s residence. She suggested incorporating Spanish-language text to better reach the local demographic and expanding the campaign into Tucson for broader visibility.

The former agent also called for releasing additional details about the masked individual, including shoe size estimates and enhanced images that might aid in identification. Such information could generate new tips from the public, she argued.

Another proposal involves depositing funds into Bitcoin accounts potentially linked to ransom demands received after Guthrie’s disappearance. Coffinader believes this could prompt activity from suspects that might be traceable through blockchain analysis.

She further recommended increasing the existing reward from $1.2 million to $2.2 million to incentivize more substantial tips. The higher amount could encourage individuals with information to come forward despite potential risks.

Coffinader urged greater collaboration with private volunteer search groups and renewed DNA testing on evidence collected from the scene. Blood found at Guthrie’s home was confirmed to belong to her, but additional forensic analysis might yield new insights.

The Pima County Sheriff’s Office, leading the investigation, has acknowledged awareness of various tips but has not publicly commented on Coffinader’s specific suggestions. Officials continue emphasizing a methodical approach while pursuing multiple avenues.

Guthrie’s case has captivated national attention due to the circumstances of her disappearance and the lack of a named suspect after months of investigation. The doorbell camera footage showing a masked figure remains one of the most significant pieces of evidence.

Volunteer groups have conducted searches in areas including near the Mexican border, following various tips. However, coordination with authorities has sometimes proven challenging, with Mexican officials occasionally unavailable to accompany searchers.

The case has sparked broader discussions about missing persons investigations and resource allocation. Critics argue that high-profile cases sometimes receive disproportionate attention while others languish, though officials maintain all reports are taken seriously.

Family members have expressed frustration with the pace of progress while continuing to advocate for their loved one. They have participated in public appeals and maintained pressure on authorities to explore every possible lead.

Coffinader’s background in the FBI lends credibility to her suggestions, though law enforcement agencies often prefer internal protocols over external recommendations. Her proposals reflect common strategies employed in complex missing persons cases.

The Bitcoin angle addresses modern challenges in tracking ransom payments. Cryptocurrency transactions can be difficult to trace but also leave digital footprints that skilled analysts might follow under proper legal authorization.

Billboard campaigns have proven effective in other missing persons cases by maintaining public awareness. Updating them with enhanced images and multilingual text could expand the pool of potential witnesses.

The reward increase proposal aligns with practices in other investigations where higher amounts have generated breakthroughs. Financial incentives sometimes overcome reluctance stemming from fear of retaliation or involvement.

Private search groups bring additional resources and community connections that can supplement official efforts. Better integration between volunteers and law enforcement could enhance coverage of potential search areas.

DNA retesting reflects advances in forensic technology. Newer methods might extract more information from existing samples or identify previously undetected traces that could point to suspects.

The Pima County Sheriff’s Office has released periodic updates while cautioning against speculation that could compromise the investigation. They continue receiving and evaluating tips from the public.

Guthrie’s disappearance occurred amid a period of heightened attention on missing persons cases nationally. Similar situations have prompted reviews of investigative protocols and calls for improved interagency coordination.

As the case enters its fifth month, pressure mounts for tangible progress. The absence of a clear suspect after extensive investigation raises questions about evidence handling and theory development.

Coffinader’s suggestions, while not official, contribute to public discourse about best practices in missing persons investigations. Her experience provides a framework for evaluating current efforts and potential improvements.

The Guthrie family continues seeking answers while maintaining hope for resolution. Their advocacy highlights the human impact of prolonged uncertainty in such cases.

Law enforcement officials face the difficult balance of protecting investigative integrity while addressing public concerns. Transparent communication about general progress without compromising details remains crucial.

The case serves as a reminder of the challenges in solving complex disappearances. Despite technological advances and increased resources, some cases resist quick resolution, requiring sustained commitment and adaptability.

MONTERREY, Mexico — Perhaps the manager wasn’t the problem after all. Tunisia sacked Sabri Lamouchi after last week’s 5-1 defeat to Sweden, appointing Hervé Renard as their seventh manager since qualifying began. But it turned out a diffident side lacking defensive conviction is a diffident side lacking defensive conviction whoever has to do the press conferences. Tunisia were well beaten by a Japan side inspired by Feyenoord center-forward Ayase Ueda, who scored twice and led the line with intelligence and imagination in a 4-0 victory.

A Manager Given No Time to Prepare

Renard had just three days with his players before the match. He may have performed heroics to win the Africa Cup of Nations with Zambia in 2012 and three years later become the first manager to win two Cups of Nations with different teams as he ended Côte d’Ivoire’s 23-year trophy drought. But he is not, as he has stressed, “a magician.”

Attempts to break into the mainstream of French football with Sochaux, Lille, and the France women’s team have faltered, and the 57-year-old seems to have accepted that his role now is with aspirant nations in Africa and the Middle East rather than at the apex of the European game. Renard still wears his trademark white shirt, but whatever luck it may once have brought seems to have worn off. Not that this mess could, in any realistic sense, be blamed on Renard. He’s just the well-remunerated man paid to try to explain how Tunisia are out of the World Cup already.

A Resigned Reaction From the Sideline

In the end, Renard simply seemed resigned to the result. “We were hoping for a better reaction, a better performance,” he said. “Unfortunately the score was heavy, but this reflects the difference between the teams. Today we were lacking good defensive organisation. In the first 20 minutes of the second half we were more rigorous but this was not enough.”

A Landmark Match for the Tournament’s History

This was a landmark game for the World Cup, the 1,000th in its history. What began in chilly Montevideo with simultaneous matches between France and Mexico and the United States and Belgium has arrived, 96 years later, in steamy Monterrey with the largest victory for an Asian side in the tournament’s history.

A violent and protracted thunderstorm the day before the game had led to flooding in the stadium compound and transformed the main access road into a raging torrent. The only evidence of that on matchday, though, was a film of mud over the tarmac and concrete.

Tunisia’s Problems Resurface

Tunisia’s underlying issues proved less easy to disguise than the cleanup from the storm. Renard retained the same basic shape as his predecessor Lamouchi and made only three changes, most notably in goal, where Aymen Dahmen replaced Mouhib Chamakh, who had been at least in part responsible for Sweden’s first two goals last week. But a similar lineup had a similar outcome; Tunisia were never in the game.

A Quick Start for Japan

Japan manager Hajime Moriyasu praised his players’ focus and execution following the comprehensive victory. “The players didn’t get too caught up in the opponent and were able to fully show what we wanted to do,” said a delighted Moriyasu.

Japan should have had a penalty within 70 seconds as Ueda was clipped by Ellyes Skhiri as he tried to turn — a mystifying non-award by the Romanian referee István Kovács and an even more mystifying non-intervention by VAR for an obvious foul — but they were ahead within four minutes anyway. A neat move dragged Tunisia across the pitch and left space for Keito Nakamura on the Japan left. The wing-back crossed low into a crowded box, with the ball cannoning in off the heel of an unsighted Daichi Kamada. Renard advanced toward the edge of his technical area, a look of bewildered horror on his face.

Tactical Tweaks That Paid Off

Moriyasu actually made one more change than Renard after his side’s impressive 2-2 draw with the Netherlands in their opener. Takefusa Kubo was injured, but the other three tweaks were tactical — and they worked. Having played largely without the ball in that earlier match, Japan poured forward in waves and, but for a last-gasp clearing challenge from Dylan Bronn and then a sprawling save from Dahmen that clawed Takehiro Tomiyasu’s deflected shot away a millimeter from fully crossing the line, Japan would have increased their advantage within the first 10 minutes.

Ueda’s Second Strike

The second goal, though, was always going to arrive sooner or later, and it came after 31 minutes as Ueda, receiving the ball in an inexplicable amount of space, turned, ignored the run of Junya Ito, and whipped a shot through the legs of Montasser Talbi and into the bottom corner. Renard’s expression this time was rueful.

A Royal Witness and a Comfortable Second Half

Renard can at least take credit for having tightened things up after the break, but by then it was too late. Japan were watched from the VIP box by Hisako, the widow of Norihito, grandson of Emperor Taishō, who traveled with her husband to South Korea shortly before the 2002 World Cup for the first visit by the imperial family since the Second World War. What she saw was a very good side who spent the second half conserving energy and playing within themselves against a far inferior team.

Two More Goals Seal the Result

Ito added a third from Ueda’s flick after 69 minutes, played onside by Mohamed Amine Ben Salida, who was dallying a good three or four yards behind the rest of the defensive line. Renard, incredulous, watched the replay on an iPad and spent much of the subsequent drinks break standing purse-lipped, staring into the middle distance. Ueda’s clever looping header made it four, and by then, Renard looked broken.

A Manager’s Tenuous Future

He’s surely too long in the game ever to have imagined the Tunisia job might be a long-term appointment, but, given recent precedent — Renard now being Tunisia’s seventh manager since the start of qualifying — he will be lucky to make it to Thursday’s final group game against the Netherlands.

With Japan having delivered the largest victory by an Asian side in World Cup history on the tournament’s symbolic 1,000th match, Moriyasu’s side will look to build on the momentum heading into their own remaining group fixtures. For Tunisia, the immediate question is no longer about tactics or lineup changes, but about whether Renard — appointed with just days to prepare and already facing a result this lopsided — survives long enough to lead the team into Thursday’s clash with the Netherlands, a match that now carries little more than pride at stake for a side already eliminated from World Cup contention.