TOKYO, – Oil prices climbed on Monday on continuing fears of supply losses because of shipping disruptions in the key Middle East producing region from the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.

Brent crude futures rose $1.71, or 1.6%, to $110.74 a barrel by 0057 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained $0.71, or 0.6%, to trade at $112.25 per barrel.

On Thursday, the last trading day before the Good Friday holiday break, WTI ‌settled up more ⁠than 11% ⁠and Brent soared nearly 8% in volatile trading, recording their biggest absolute price increase since 2020, as U.S. President Donald Trump promised to continue attacks on Iran.

The Strait of Hormuz, which carries oil and petroleum products from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, remains largely closed by Iranian attacks on shipping after the war began on February 28.

Because of the Middle East supply disruptions, refiners are seeking alternative sources for crude, particularly for physical ⁠cargoes in ‌the U.S. and the UK North Sea.

“Global buyers are bidding aggressively for (U.S.) Gulf Coast barrels and Brent is rallying even faster,” the Schork Group said in ⁠a client note on Monday.
On Sunday, Trump ratcheted up pressure on Tehran, threatening in an expletive-laden Easter Sunday social media post to target Iran’s power plants and bridges on Tuesday if the strategic Strait of Hormuz is not reopened. Still, some vessels, including an Omani-operated tanker, a French-owned container ship and a Japanese-owned gas carrier, crossed the Strait of Hormuz since Thursday, shipping data showed, reflecting Iran’s policy to allow passage for vessels from countries it deems friendly.

The war threatens to linger on as Iran ‌has officially told mediators it is not prepared to meet with U.S. officials in the Pakistani capital Islamabad in coming days and efforts to produce a ceasefire have reached a dead end, ⁠the Wall Street Journal reported on Friday.

On Sunday, OPEC+, consisting of some members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, agreed to a modest rise of 206,000 barrels per day for May.

However, that decision will largely exist on paper as several of the group’s key producers are unable to raise output due to the war.

Russian supply has been disrupted recently by Ukrainian drone attacks on its Baltic Sea export terminal. Media reports on Sunday said its Ust-Luga terminal resumed loadings on Saturday after days of disruptions.

Trump wrote: “Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell – JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah. President DONALD J. TRUMP”.

More pain awaits Indian banks stocks — the biggest component of the country’s stock market — as the central bank’s moves in the currency market and growth shock to the economy from rising energy prices dent profit outlook.

The Reserve Bank of India’s defense of a record-low rupee has constrained its ability to inject liquidity, tightening financial conditions that are likely to weigh on banks over the coming quarters. A prolonged conflict in the Middle East also risks derailing India’s nascent credit recovery, threatening loan growth as the broader economy cools.

Global investors withdrew a record 327 billion rupees ($3.5 billion) from shares of financial services companies in the first fortnight of March, according to National Securities Depository Ltd. data. The Nifty Bank Index has lost $95 billion in market value since the start of March, narrowly avoiding a bear market — defined as a 20% drop from a recent high.

“There could be further pressure on these stocks in the short-to-medium term as monetary policy can remain tight,” Kranthi Bathini, an equity strategist at WealthMills Securities, said, adding that valuations are becoming attractive after the correction.

At stake is the outlook for India’s $4.5 trillion stock market, given banks account for nearly a third of the benchmark index. A sustained weakness in shares of lenders could undermine a broader market that is already among the worst performers in the region, down 13% for the year.

Bulls point to improving valuation multiples for bank stocks and India’s long-term economic growth, which remains among the fastest globally. The Nifty Bank Index trades at 1.5 times one-year forward price-to-book, its cheapest level since 2020, signaling an attractive risk-reward profile.
Citibank Inc. is already prioritizing private-sector banks over state-run lenders, betting that the former can better absorb the macroeconomic stress that is now the prime concern for investors.Still, Jefferies estimates banks could face as much as 50 billion rupees from unwinding their currency trades due to diktats of the central bank. Fitch Ratings sees net interest margins of lenders shrinking 20-30 basis points in the year ending March 2027 — potentially undershooting the credit rating agency’s 3.1% forecast — as tighter financial conditions weigh.

“Banks will definitely take some hit on their investment book,” said Rajat Agarwal, an Asia strategist at Societe Generale SA. “We recently saw a pickup in credit growth — what remains to be seen is how much of that gets pushed back” by the war, he said.

ET Intelligence Group: FY26 was a challenging year for the primary equity market, with most initial public offerings (IPOs) failing to earn returns since listing till March 31 amid heightened volatility. While geopolitical tensions in West Asia and weakening rupee amid the exodus of foreign investors affected the overall equity performance, there were a select few IPOs that managed to stay in the green. Of the 109 mainboard IPOs that were listed in FY26, 32 or one out of three IPOs posted positive returns while 16 IPOs yielded double-digit returns over the listing price. This also implies that by and large, the primary equity market did not earn returns after listing.

Among the top gainers were electric bikes maker Ather Energy (139% return), auto ancillary manufacturer Belrise Industries (98%), and Aditya Infotech (78%), which provides video surveillance solutions.

Instead of listing price, if offer price is considered, then the proportion of companies improves – 37 IPOs generated returns while 31 yielded double-digit returns. The same three companies made it to the top three slots. Aditya Infotech took the lead with 168% return over the offer price while Ather Energy and Belrise gained 143% and 116%.

It was also the year when majority of the large IPOs based on the issue size or money raised failed to generate returns. Only a quarter of the top 12 IPOs – four to be precise – earned returns. These include Lenskart and Groww generating 26% return each, followed by 11% return by ICICI Prudential AMC and 8% by Tenneco Clean Air India.
Among the worst performing IPOs of FY26 were steel products maker VMS TMT, which fell 62% from the listing price followed by construction company Highway Infrastructure and renewable energy equipment provider Solarworld Energy Solutions which lost 60% each.

Traders are headed into a week likely to be marked by sharp swings and elevated uncertainty, as the West Asia conflict is expected to keep the undertone nervous. The market bias remains bearish despite oversold conditions, with Nifty and Sensex closing lower for a sixth consecutive week. The Reserve Bank of India’s response to the conflict in its first monetary policy review since the war began in late February will also be in focus and could influence near-term sentiment.

CHANDAN TAPARIA
HEAD – DERIVATIVES & TECHNICALS, MOTILAL OSWAL FINANCIAL SERVICES

Where is Nifty headed?
Nifty has been forming lower highs and lower lows on weekly chart, signalling a sustained downtrend. Despite this weak structure, the index staged a sharp 500-point intraday recovery on Thursday, forming a bullish candle on both daily and weekly charts. The index is now deeply oversold pointing to the possibility of a near-term pullback or relief rally. Holding above 22,100 is critical. A sustained move above 23,000–23,333 could trigger short covering, while failure to do so may keep the downtrend intact, with the index at risk of slipping below 21,750.

Trading Strategies : Recommended strategy for Nifty Option for 13 April expiry is a Bear Put Spread, ideal for a slight negative bias. Traders are advised to buy one lot of 22,700 strike Put Option and simultaneously sell one lot of 22,400 strike Put Option. Maximum risk in the strategy is 115 points (Rs 7,475), and a maximum potential Profit is 285 Points (Rs 18,525) per lot if the index expires below 22,400 zones towards next weekly expiry.

TOP STOCKS FOR THE WEEK

Adani Power: Buy. CMP Rs 160, Stop Loss: Rs 154, Target: Rs 172
Stock has broken out from a consolidation zone on daily chart after 100 trading sessions with a strong-bodied bullish candle. It has given the recent highest daily close with rising traded volumes along with holding above key moving averages.
Tech Mahindra: Buy. CMP Rs 1441, Stop Loss: Rs 1400, Target: Rs 1510
Stock started to form a higher top – higher bottom on weekly scale after the sharp corrective move in February. It has seen a consolidation breakout of the last 25 trading sessions and formed a Rounding Bottom pattern on daily chart.

HITESH TAILOR
TECHNICAL ANALYST, CHOICE EQUITY BROKING

Where is Nifty headed?
Nifty is likely to trade in a broad range of 22,150–23,500 with a sideways to bearish bias. While oversold indicators may trigger short-covering rallies, sustainability above 23,500 will be critical to shift sentiment. Until then, any pullback towards resistance zones is likely to face selling pressure. A decisive break below 22,150 could open the door for further downside towards 21,900-21,700 levels. Weekly RSI at 27.88 signals that market is in a deeply oversold zone, increasing the probability of a short-term relief rally or consolidation.

Trading Strategies: Nifty traders may consider a ‘sell on rise’ strategy in the 22,900-23,200 zone, with a stop loss at 23,500 and potential targets of 22,150-21,900. Fresh longs should be considered only if Nifty sustains above 23,500 on a closing basis.

TOP STOCKS FOR THE WEEK
Adani Power: Buy at CMP Rs 159, Stop Loss at Rs 150, Target: Rs 177

Price structure has improved following a decisive breakout above a key horizontal resistance zone. The move is backed by a strong close and a clear uptick in volumes, signalling renewed buying interest and stronger participation.

Marico: Buy at CMP Rs 761, Stop Loss: Rs 724, Target: Rs 824

Marico’s structure remains positive, with a consistent formation of higher highs and higher lows pattern across timeframes. A pullback from its all-time high held near the 200-day EMA and saw a rebound, underscoring demand at lower levels and keeping the bullish undertone intact.

SACCHITANAND UTTEKAR
VP- RESEARCH (TECHNICAL & DERIVATIVES), TRADEBULLS SECURITIES

Where is Nifty headed?
The broader trend remains bearish unless a clear weekly reversal emerges. For the week, upside appears capped near 23,000, with 23,430 zone acting as a strong supply area, backed by the confluence of the 20-DEMA and prior gap resistance. On the downside, 22,000 is a crucial support; a decisive break could accelerate selling towards 21,630 (50-MEMA), exposing the index to deeper downside risk. The strategy remains ‘sell on rise’.

Trading Strategies: Traders should stay tactically flexible. In case a pullback unfolds driven by the 3-point Price–RSI divergence on the daily chart, a conditional ‘Buy’ above 23,000 should be deployed with a stop loss at 23,860 for a target of 23,430. However, since the broader bias remains cautious, a breakdown below 22,530 would signal continued weakness, potentially dragging the index towards sub-22,000 levels and reinforcing the prevailing downtrend to extend towards 21,630. In that case, sell below 22,530 with a stop loss at 22,610 for a target of 22,000.

TOP STOCKS FOR THE WEEK
Trent: Buy at Rs 3550, Stop Loss: Rs 3490, Target: Rs 3760.

Weekly ‘Bullish Engulfing’ pattern with RSI crossover signals a strong possibility of reversal. Also on its 30-minute chart, an ‘Inverse head and shoulders’ pattern breakout above Rs 3,550 confirms a bullish setup, with a projected move towards Rs 3,800.

Eicher Motors: Sell at Rs 6684, Stop Loss: Rs 6840, Target: Rs 6068.

Stock has broken its 12-month trend structure, closing below its prior month’s low for the first time, signalling a shift in long-term momentum. Last week’s sustained trade below its 200-DEMA (6780) and 50-WEMA (6630) confirms persistent supply pressure.