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Trump war cry likely to keep indices, rupee edgy this week

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Trump war cry likely to keep indices, rupee edgy this week
Mumbai: Indian equities are tipped to extend their losses early this week and the rupee will likely be on a sliding gradient, as Donald Trump’s weekend war rhetoric is seen keeping oil prices elevated and investor mood skittish on Dalal Street. The US President has sought more strikes against Iran and rallied traditional allies to force open an energy supply choke point.

Last week, the Sensex and Nifty ended at their lowest since April 2025, stretching their losses to 8-9% since the war began two weeks ago. Although equities appear oversold after their recent rout, oil prices above $100 a barrel are making investors reluctant to deploy cash in a hurry.

With Trump theoretically expanding the scope of attacks by threatening further strikes on Iran’s Kharg Island – home to the country’s oil exports infrastructure – the market is resigning itself to the fact that the conflict between US-Israel and Iran may not end soon. Tehran has pledged to respond even as Washington has urged the UK to send battleships to the region to force open the Strait of Hormuz.

“It is not the fog of war, but a fog of words that has led to elevated uncertainty around how this war will play out,” said Barclays’ economists, including Christian Keller, in a client note over the weekend. “In turn, this has led to violent swings in the price of oil and financial assets.”

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Screenshot 2026-03-16 055547Agencies

Crude Risks

The rupee, meanwhile, has slid 1.6% since the start of the war despite central bank interventions, and the currency closed at a record low of 92.48 to the dollar on Friday.
Market participants expect the rupee – the worst performing Asian monetary unit in 2025 and on track to feature in the lower half of the leader board this quarter as well – to drift lower if crude oil prices leap past $100 a barrel.
“The risk of crude is going to stay high, and the outlook for the rupee remains cautious as it could create macroeconomic challenges for the Indian economy,” said Jateen Trivedi, VP research analyst, currency, at LKP Securities. “In the near term, the rupee is expected to trade within a range of 91.90-92.80, with crude price movements and dollar index trends remaining the key drivers.”
A Reuters report said Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude to trend above $100 in March and around $85 in April, before a gradual easing in supplies – unless the war is protracted – helps the gauge to settle at low 70s to the dollar later in the year. Brent oil surged to a touching distance of $120 a barrel last Monday, a level not seen since the immediate aftermath of the Ukraine invasion by Russia.

The surge in crude oil prices and the resultant slide in the rupee have kept investors on the sidelines, especially amid expectations the central bank interventions might do little to stem the rupee’s rout. Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have continued to pare holdings in Indian equities through March. On March 13, they sold shares worth ₹10,716 crore.

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I focus on a rigorous fundamentals-foremost equity and credit research. I currently work as a financial advisor/planner, and do analysis in my free time. I have an undergrad in business administration, an MBA in finance, and currently am a doctoral candidate (a DBA with a concentration in Finance and Investment Management). My research style typically involves process-driven research, followed by blending several valuation models together to get a blended, 12 month price target. I enjoy utilizing full DCF analysis in conjunction with SOTP, peer/multiples analysis, and risk-adjusted approaches. I thoroughly enjoy reading filings, technical documentation relevant to the sector, and then translating that data into conclusions with actionable insights. I enjoy learning about the various sectors and companies I find myself researching, and always feel like there is something to learn. As a curious individual, equity and credit research is very fulfilling, and even fun!I always try to find 2-4 variables that drive value or hinder growth, stress test them, and then let fundamental evidence incorporated with book-value set my viewpoint for the research project. I enjoy the energy sector, commodities, tech, and financial sectors the most. I joined Seeking Alpha to share my thoughts with a wide audience. I originally started with sharing my analysis with a few of my friends who are also advisors and/or analysts. I am always open to a myriad of viewpoints, as I feel the most accurate viewpoints and research is made through a collection of great minds working together to figure something out. If you appreciate thorough research, and want to learn more about a company beyond just what is inside of their books, then I believe you will enjoy the research that I work on.

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