Gold has surged back above $5,400 an ounce in early trading following US missile strikes on Iran, prompting fresh speculation over whether the precious metal could break through $6,000 in the coming weeks.
The renewed rally comes after a volatile start to the year for bullion. Gold hit a record high of more than $5,550 in late January, before tumbling sharply to around $4,700 by early February. Silver followed a similar path, sliding from above $120 to roughly $82. Both metals are now climbing again, with silver edging back toward $100.
The latest spike follows coordinated US and Israeli strikes on Iran over the weekend, which reportedly killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and triggered retaliatory action by Tehran against US allies in the Gulf. Tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global oil supplies, have intensified, pushing oil and safe-haven assets higher.
Market analysts describe the situation as a “classic risk-off scenario”, with investors flocking to traditional stores of value amid fears of broader regional escalation, oil supply disruption and renewed inflationary pressures.
Cameron Parry, founder and CEO of TallyMoney, said the moves were entirely consistent with previous geopolitical crises.
“Both the oil and gold price were up Monday morning, as the Strait of Hormuz and safe-haven assets became the point of focus for markets,” he said. “Geopolitical crises like the one unfolding currently will invariably apply upward pressure on the gold price and that’s precisely what is happening this time round.
“We are in a classic risk-off scenario and gold is the classic go-to asset. Gold was already benefiting from strong demand globally, not just from central banks but also retail investors keen to get exposure in an increasingly volatile geopolitical climate.
“That demand could now spike further as nations and individuals alike seek the safety of the world’s ultimate store of value. Few would bet against gold.”
Riz Malik, director at R3 Wealth, said the scale of any further gains would depend heavily on how long the conflict lasts and how Iran responds.
“Monday morning immediately saw a sharp rise in the demand for gold,” he said. “How much it will rise will depend on how prolonged this campaign is and the level of the Iranian retaliation.
“Once again global instability has been pushed to Defcon 4 and that only means one thing for precious metals. Namely, their price is set to go up.”
However, not all analysts believe a rapid surge to $6,000 is imminent.
Tony Redondo, founder at Cosmos Currency Exchange, said that while the $6,000 mark is conceivable in the near term, it would require sustained escalation.
“Even before Saturday’s military operations in Iran, the price of gold had catapulted up to the $5,300 level, but hitting $6,000 by next week would require a 15 per cent surge, a feat usually reserved for total systemic collapse,” he said.
“However, while $6,000 is unlikely within days, it is a high-probability target for March or April, especially if the Strait of Hormuz is compromised on a longer-term basis or the conflict broadens.”
Redondo added that silver’s structural supply deficit could amplify its price reaction. “Silver is closing in on $100 and its supply constraints make $120 a realistic target in the months ahead as a coiled spring reaction to geopolitical fear,” he said, cautioning that sharp rallies often invite profit-taking.
Others argue that while geopolitical shocks can act as catalysts, deeper macroeconomic forces will ultimately determine gold’s trajectory.
Anita Wright, chartered financial planner at Ribble Wealth Management, said structural pressures in the US financial system were equally important.
“This weekend’s missile strikes will undoubtedly affect the gold price, but it is important not to confuse a catalyst with the underlying driver,” she said. “Gold does not move to $6,000 because of a single weekend’s events. It moves there, if it does, because of monetary conditions.
“The US faces trillions in refinancing requirements alongside persistent fiscal deficits. Foreign appetite for US Treasuries shows visible strain, long-dated yields are rising, and equity valuations remain stretched. History tells us that when bond yields rise into an overvalued equity market, instability follows.”
Wright said that while an immediate jump to $6,000 was unlikely, materially higher gold prices over the medium term were plausible if bond market stress intensifies and the Federal Reserve returns to liquidity support.
Nouran Moustafa, practice principal and IFA at Roxton Wealth, urged investors not to chase sharp moves driven by headlines.
“Gold was expected to open higher as investors moved into safe havens after the latest escalation, and so it did,” she said. “However, a jump to $6,000 in days would require something far more severe such as direct energy supply disruption or broader financial market stress.
“Without that, we’re more likely to see sharp volatility than a sustained vertical rally.”
She warned that emotional investing during times of geopolitical stress can be costly. “Gold can act as portfolio insurance, but chasing rapid spikes rarely ends well. Sensible allocation and risk management matter more than reacting emotionally to breaking news.”
With tensions in the Middle East showing little sign of easing and global markets already on edge, gold’s next move will likely hinge on whether the conflict remains contained — or spills into something far more disruptive for energy markets and global growth.
Amy Ingham
Amy is a newly qualified journalist specialising in business journalism at Business Matters with responsibility for news content for what is now the UK’s largest print and online source of current business news.
