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UK Job Losses 2026: 160,000 Roles at Risk as Energy Prices Bite

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UK Job Losses 2026: 160,000 Roles at Risk as Energy Prices Bite

Britain’s labour market is bracing for its sharpest contraction in years, with more than 160,000 roles forecast to vanish over the course of 2026 as anaemic growth and stubbornly high energy bills combine to squeeze employers across the country’s industrial heartlands.

The grim assessment comes from the Item Club, the independent forecaster that runs its projections through the very same economic model used by the Treasury to stress-test government policy. According to its latest analysis, a net 163,000 jobs will disappear this year, representing a 0.4 per cent decline in total employment and dealing a fresh blow to a workforce already feeling the strain of 18 months of cooling demand.

For Britain’s small and medium-sized employers, the report makes for sobering reading. The pain, the Item Club warns, will fall disproportionately on energy-intensive manufacturers, the construction trade and the high street, three sectors that between them prop up tens of thousands of SMEs and the supply chains that orbit them. As disposable incomes are eroded, consumer-facing businesses in retail, hospitality and food service are expected to feel a secondary shockwave.

“The hit will be felt in lower-income regions where consumers typically have less rainy-day savings, which will reduce spending in the retail and hospitality sectors,” said Tim Lyne, an adviser to the Item Club, in a candid assessment of how the downturn will play out beyond the M25.

The geographical pattern of the squeeze will be uneven and, in places, severe. Birmingham’s unemployment rate is forecast to climb from 6.7 per cent to 7.8 per cent over the year, while Glasgow is on course to break through the 5 per cent mark from a 4.3 per cent average in 2025. Cambridge stands as the lone exception among Britain’s major cities, with overall employment expected to edge modestly higher on the back of its knowledge-economy base.

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Nationally, the jobless rate, which brushed 5 per cent at the close of last year, is heading for 5.1 per cent in the coming months, up from 4.9 per cent in the most recent official figures published by the Bank of England.

Official growth data due this week is expected to confirm that the economy expanded by around 0.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2026, a modest improvement on the 0.1 per cent recorded in the final three months of 2025, but hardly the kind of momentum that creates jobs at scale.

A separate survey from KPMG and the Recruitment and Employment Confederation lends weight to the gloomier outlook. Permanent placements across the economy fell in April at their fastest rate since the start of the year, while demand for temporary staff climbed to its highest level since 2023, as employers hedged their bets on hiring commitments.

Neil Carberry, chief executive of the REC, said the trend reflected a “preference for short-term staff at some firms who wanted to push ahead with business development and expansion plans” against an uncertain backdrop. “Businesses will be particularly concerned about the impact on inflation, their borrowing costs and any disruption to wider supply chains,” he added, alluding to the lingering aftershocks of the conflict in Iran.

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For business owners, the message is one many will recognise from the past two years: keep options open, keep headcount flexible, and assume that the cost of capital will remain elevated for longer than is comfortable.

The Item Club expects the only meaningful employment growth this year to come from publicly funded corners of the economy, education, health and social care, but its analysts are blunt that this expansion is “unlikely to offset losses in larger, more demand-sensitive sectors”. In short: the state will hire, but it will not hire enough.

For SMEs, the most worrying signal in the report is the speed at which higher interest rates and elevated inflation feed through to recruitment freezes and redundancies. With wage settlements still running ahead of productivity gains, and with energy contracts due for renewal across thousands of mid-sized industrial businesses this summer, the path of least resistance for many owner-managers will be to thin payrolls rather than expand them.

One silver lining is the gradual improvement in economic inactivity rates, as more people who left the workforce during and after the pandemic are now returning to look for work. But with vacancies falling and the labour market loosening, that fresh supply of jobseekers may find conditions tougher than they were even a year ago.

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The Item Club’s projections, drawn from the Treasury’s own model, are typically used by policymakers to scrutinise the government’s claims about its economic agenda. On this occasion, they offer ministers little political cover and Britain’s job creators even less.


Jamie Young

Jamie Young

Jamie is Senior Reporter at Business Matters, bringing over a decade of experience in UK SME business reporting.
Jamie holds a degree in Business Administration and regularly participates in industry conferences and workshops.

When not reporting on the latest business developments, Jamie is passionate about mentoring up-and-coming journalists and entrepreneurs to inspire the next generation of business leaders.

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Earnings call transcript: Suncor Energy Q1 2026 beats forecasts but shares dip

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Earnings call transcript: Suncor Energy Q1 2026 beats forecasts but shares dip

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Aussie shares wobble ahead of budget, oil surges again

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Aussie shares wobble ahead of budget, oil surges again

Australia’s share market has wobbled ahead of the federal budget, as investors brace for tax reforms expected to impact returns on housing and stocks.

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Vodafone Idea board to weigh fundraise through equity after AGR relief

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Vodafone Idea board to weigh fundraise through equity after AGR relief
Vodafone Idea on Tuesday said its board will meet to consider a proposal to raise funds through the issuance of equity shares and/or warrants on a preferential basis, subject to regulatory and shareholder approvals.

The proposed fundraising comes at a time when investor sentiment around the company has improved sharply following a series of developments that eased concerns around its long-standing balance sheet stress and capital raising ability.

Vodafone Idea stock has surged nearly 30% over the past month and gained more than 50% in the last four months, aided by regulatory relief on adjusted gross revenue (AGR) liabilities, management changes and renewed expectations around network expansion funding.

A major trigger came earlier this month after the Department of Telecommunications recalculated the company’s AGR dues, lowering the outstanding amount to around Rs 64,046 crore as of December-end. The move was seen by analysts as a significant reduction in financial overhang for the debt-laden telecom operator.

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The company also saw renewed investor attention after Kumar Mangalam Birla returned as non-executive chairman, nearly five years after stepping down during a period marked by mounting financial pressure and uncertainty over the telecom operator’s future.


The sharpest rally in the stock, however, came earlier this week after a Bloomberg report said UK-based Vodafone Group was exploring a potential transfer of a portion of its stake in Vodafone Idea back to the company for treasury holding purposes. Vodafone Plc currently owns about 19% in the Indian telecom operator.
Brokerages have turned more constructive on the stock after the AGR clarity. Citigroup maintained its “Buy-High Risk” rating on Vodafone Idea with a target price of Rs 14, implying further upside from current levels.According to Citi, uncertainty surrounding AGR liabilities had for years weakened lender confidence and delayed the company’s fundraising plans. The brokerage said the government’s conversion of dues into equity, resulting in a 36% stake in Vodafone Idea, has materially improved the company’s prospects of securing fresh capital for network investments.

Also read: Gold, housing play under pressure as PM’s pitch rattles consumer-facing stocks

Citi also noted that the improved regulatory clarity reduces execution risk around Vodafone Idea’s previously announced fundraising roadmap. The brokerage now expects the telecom operator to have better visibility in completing its targeted debt raise, which is crucial for accelerating 4G and 5G rollout plans and competing more effectively with rivals Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

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These Stocks Are Today’s Movers: Qualcomm, Intel, Micron, Zebra, Nvidia, Quantum Computing, GameStop, and More

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These Stocks Are Today’s Movers: Qualcomm, Intel, Micron, Zebra, Nvidia, Quantum Computing, GameStop, and More

These Stocks Are Today’s Movers: Qualcomm, Intel, Micron, Zebra, Nvidia, Quantum Computing, GameStop, and More

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Dixon Technologies Q4 Results: Cons PAT falls 36% YoY as topline grows 2%; Rs 10/share dividend announced

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Dixon Technologies Q4 Results: Cons PAT falls 36% YoY as topline grows 2%; Rs 10/share dividend announced
Dixon Technologies on Tuesday reported a consolidated net profit of Rs 256 crore in the March-ended quarter versus Rs 401 crore in the year-ago period, implying a 36% fall. The profit after tax (PAT) was attributable to the owners of the company. The company’s revenue from operations in Q4FY26 was up 2% to Rs 10,511 crore versus Rs 10,293 crore posted by the company in the corresponding quarter of the previous financial year.

Meanwhile, Dixon Technologies’ total income grew 3% year-on-year to Rs 10,595 crore versus Rs 10,304 crore in Q4FY25. It included other income of Rs 84 crore compared to Rs 11 crore in the year-ago period.

The company’s board recommended a final dividend of Rs 10 per equity share for the financial year 2025-26. The dividend, if approved by the company members at its 33rd Annual General Meeting (AGM), will be credited within 30 days from the AGM date, the company filing said.

The company’s Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortisation (EBITDA) stood at Rs 493 crore in the quarter under review, up 9% YoY.

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Dixon Tech’s expenses in the reported quarter stood at Rs 10,231 crore versus Rs 10,399 crore in Q3FY26 and Rs 9,982 crore in the year-ago period. The expenses were for the cost of material consumed, employee benefits and finance cost, among other things.


The profit before tax (PBT) was Rs 370 crore in Q4FY26 versus Rs 412 crore in Q3FY26 and Rs 576 crore in Q4FY25.
For the full financial year, PAT stood at Rs 1,644 crore, gaining 33% YoY, while total income stood at Rs 49,586 crore, up 28%. EBITDA for FY26 increased 69% to Rs 2,580 crore over the previous financial year. The earnings were announced after market hours, and Dixon Tech shares ended today at Rs 10,120, down by Rs 652 or 6.05%.

(Disclaimer: The recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)

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eBay rejects $55.5bn offer from GameStop

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eBay rejects $55.5bn offer from GameStop

The online auction giant said it doubted how the video game retailer would finance its offer.

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Gilt Yields Hit 28-Year High as Starmer Defies Resignation Calls

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Gilt Yields Hit 28-Year High as Starmer Defies Resignation Calls

Britain’s bond market delivered its sharpest rebuke yet to Sir Keir Starmer’s premiership on Tuesday, with 30-year gilt yields climbing to their highest level this century as the prime minister stared down a growing chorus of Labour MPs demanding he step aside.

The sell-off, which dragged sterling and equities lower in lockstep, wiped out the relief rally that followed Starmer’s defiant intervention last week. Tuesday’s cabinet meeting, at which the prime minister once again refused to countenance resignation, did little to settle nerves. Investors are now openly pricing in the prospect of a leftward lurch in Labour policy, with the attendant risks of looser fiscal rules, higher gilt issuance and a further squeeze on the cost of capital for British business.

For the country’s 5.5 million small and medium-sized enterprises, the implications are far from academic. Higher long-dated gilt yields feed directly into the swap rates that underpin commercial lending, business mortgages and asset finance, raising the prospect of yet another leg up in the borrowing costs faced by Britain’s corporate backbone at a time when many are still nursing the legacy of post-pandemic debt.

The 30-year gilt yield rose 13 basis points to 5.81 per cent, the highest since May 1998. The benchmark 10-year yield gained 10 basis points to 5.1 per cent, within a whisker of breaching the post-2008 peak it set earlier this month. Bond prices move inversely to yields.

“A new Labour leader may face pressure to ease the fiscal rules and raise gilt issuance,” warned Jim Reid, analyst at Deutsche Bank, capturing the City’s central concern that any successor would lean towards higher spending and heavier taxation of the very businesses the Treasury is counting on to drive growth.

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Sterling’s slide alongside government bonds will draw uncomfortable parallels with the dark days of Liz Truss’s mini-budget. When a currency weakens in concert with rising borrowing costs, it is the trading pattern of an emerging market that has lost the confidence of foreign capital, not that of a G7 economy. The pound fell 0.64 per cent against the dollar to a two-week low of $1.352, and shed 0.21 per cent against the euro to €1.152, its weakest since mid-April.

Some of the pressure is undeniably imported. Bunds, OATs and BTPs all sold off as President Trump declared the Iran ceasefire was “on life support”, sending Brent crude up 2.8 per cent to $107.17 a barrel and reigniting inflation fears across advanced economies. The Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of global oil and gas once flowed, remains largely shut. Germany’s Dax bore the brunt of the European sell-off, falling more than 1 per cent. But gilts underperformed by a substantial margin, marking out Westminster’s political turmoil as a uniquely British risk premium.

Mohit Kumar, chief European economist at Jefferies, urged clients to short sterling, arguing any change in the composition of government “would likely be left-leaning”. Anthony Willis, senior economist at Columbia Threadneedle Investments, cautioned that the bond market was unlikely to settle “until greater clarity emerges”.

Equities followed suit. The FTSE 100 surrendered 0.3 per cent having opened the week with a 0.4 per cent gain, while the more domestically focused FTSE 250 dropped 211 points, or 0.9 per cent, extending its losing streak to a second day. Mid-cap stocks, dominated by UK-facing businesses, are the clearest read on how the City judges Britain’s economic prospects.

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The grim verdict from Andrew Goodwin, chief UK economist at Oxford Economics, is that there is little prospect of meaningful relief. He expects 10-year borrowing costs to remain stuck above 5 per cent for the remainder of the year, regardless of who occupies Number 10. “Markets clearly perceive the UK has a bigger inflation problem and that tighter monetary policy will be needed to limit second-round effects from the energy shock, while political uncertainty has added to pressures at the long end,” he said.

Even were Starmer to dig in, Goodwin argued, the bond market would have little to celebrate, with the prime minister’s “attempts to regain popularity, or, more likely, from a successor implementing more costly left-wing economic policies” weighing on sentiment. “If Starmer sets out a timetable to stand down, the uncertainty premium will persist.”

For owner-managers already navigating a punishing cost base, a softening consumer and the fallout from this spring’s National Insurance changes, the message from the bond vigilantes is unambiguous: brace for borrowing to stay dear, and for political risk to remain firmly on the balance sheet.


Jamie Young

Jamie Young

Jamie is Senior Reporter at Business Matters, bringing over a decade of experience in UK SME business reporting.
Jamie holds a degree in Business Administration and regularly participates in industry conferences and workshops.

When not reporting on the latest business developments, Jamie is passionate about mentoring up-and-coming journalists and entrepreneurs to inspire the next generation of business leaders.

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CPGs need a new playbook

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CPGs need a new playbook

Sector underperformance calls for retooled growth model.

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Litis to buy $4m Yallingup shack

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Litis to buy $4m Yallingup shack

The property identity is set to purchase the unique coastal home following more than two decades in the same hands.

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Prudential to admit 5.7 million new shares to London Stock Exchange

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Prudential to admit 5.7 million new shares to London Stock Exchange

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