The escalation of hostilities between the US, Israel and Iran has once again pushed geopolitics to the forefront of global markets. Missile strikes, retaliatory attacks and fears of a broader Middle East conflict have predictably unsettled investors, with many wondering how to adjust their mutual fund portfolios in this uncertain environment.

According to a note by Axis Mutual Fund, for India, geographically distant but economically exposed, the more relevant question is not whether near-term volatility will rise, but whether such episodes meaningfully alter the country’s long-term investment trajectory. History suggests they rarely do.

Wars and geopolitical conflicts typically trigger short-term market turbulence, but they have not resulted in sustained equity underperformance, particularly when conflicts remain regional. Indian markets have demonstrated this resilience repeatedly, absorbing external shocks, repricing risk briefly and then reverting to fundamentals, the note said.

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Recent moves by the US and Israel to strike Iranian targets have triggered a classic “risk-off” mood among investors, where money tends to flow out of riskier assets like equities and into safer ones such as gold, silver and government bonds.

The conflict has pushed up prices of traditional safe-haven assets. Precious metals like gold and silver have surged as many investors seek protection from market volatility.
Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities, told ETMutualFunds that currently the market appears directionless, making it difficult to predict the short-term trend. Markets generally dislike uncertainty, and the prevailing global concerns are keeping sentiment volatile. From a 12-month perspective, current levels look attractive for investing in large-cap stocks.
While investors rarely catch the exact bottom, adopting a staggered investment approach during major declines can help build meaningful exposure. Gradual accumulation at lower levels increases the probability of generating alpha over the medium to long term, Chouhan added.
The note by Axis Mutual Fund highlighted that oil is the most immediate transmission mechanism. India imports more than 80% of its crude requirements, making it sensitive to Middle East instability. A sharp rise in crude prices raises input costs, widens the current account deficit and feeds inflation.

Equity markets tend to react quickly, particularly in oil-sensitive sectors such as aviation, paints, cement and chemicals. However, history shows that oil shocks alone have not derailed Indian equities unless they persist long enough to damage growth and monetary stability.

Nehal Meshram, Senior Analyst, Morningstar Investment Research India, said mutual fund investors should stay anchored to long-term goals and avoid making reactive portfolio changes based on short-term market moves. During such periods, it is essential to stick to long-term asset allocation across equities, debt and gold.

“Avoid panic selling in equities, as this often results in locking in losses right before markets stabilise. For investors with ongoing SIPs and long horizons, it makes sense to continue investing steadily.”

Meshram further said investors should focus on portfolio quality rather than short-term tactical trades. If markets correct further, consider gradual rebalancing instead of trying to time the bottom. A portfolio tilted towards large-cap, flexi-cap or multi-cap funds can help manage downside risk. One should avoid taking excessive exposure to small-cap or narrow sector themes during such volatile periods.

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Periods of geopolitical stress typically strengthen the US dollar, putting pressure on emerging market currencies, including the rupee. The note by Axis Mutual Fund showed how the Nifty has behaved over the past 15 years during conflict-driven stress events such as Arab Spring or Middle East unrest (2011), Uri surgical strikes (2016), Russia-Ukraine war (2022), Israel-Hamas conflict (2023), and Operation Sindoor (2025).

During the Arab Spring or Middle East unrest in 2011, it was a volatile year, driven more by global growth fears than geopolitics, and markets recovered as domestic fundamentals stabilised. During the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, the Nifty 50 fell 5% on invasion day but finished the year in positive territory, despite oil shocks and aggressive global rate hikes.

At the time of Operation Sindoor in 2025, initial market jitters gave way to stability as escalation risks remained contained, reinforcing the market’s tendency to look through short-term uncertainty.

The note said the pattern is consistent: conflict-driven drawdowns are shallow and temporary, while longer-term returns are dictated by earnings growth, liquidity and domestic demand.

Also Read | Silver and gold ETFs jump upto 18% as US-Israel attacks on Iran fuel safe-haven demand. What should investors do?

Anshi Shrivastava, Head – Personal Finance Training at 1 Finance, told ETMutualFunds that given current market volatility due to global conflicts, Indian investors should remain calm and focus on long-term investment goals. Mutual funds typically experience only brief declines before recovering.

While sharing how the benchmark indices have performed around various geopolitical events, Shrivastava said that for equity mutual funds, maintaining a 10-15 year investment horizon is important to achieve optimal growth. Currently, adding gold and silver to a portfolio is advisable.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)

If you have any mutual fund queries, message ET Mutual Funds on Facebook or Twitter. We will get them answered by our panel of experts. Do share your questions at ETMFqueries@timesinternet.in along with your age, risk profile and Twitter handle.

Cineworld unit in Leigh has been vacant since January 2025

A former cinema in Leigh town centre is set to be converted into a large DIY store.

The proposal, recently lodged with Wigan council, is for the former Cineworld cinema at The Loom retail park, Spinning Jenny Way.

In December, 2024, Cineworld announced that the cinema would close and the unit has since been vacant since January, 2025. Cineworld opened at The Loom in 2011.

A supporting letter on behalf of applicant Realty Income Ltd, to change the use of the building to retail, has been published on the council’s planning portal.

It said: “The proposal is made to accommodate a national multiple retailer of DIY, trade and home improvement goods at the site. We note that there are no existing retailers of ‘bulky goods’ in or at the edge of Leigh town centre.

“In addition, the former B&Q store on Kirkhall Lane, to the north of the town centre, has recently closed down. On the basis that the B&Q store (which is significantly larger than the site) previously served the town, we conclude that the proposal is very unlikely to result in any adverse impacts upon the vitality and viability of Leigh town centre.

“Furthermore, the context demonstrates that there is an identified need to accommodate a new retailer of ‘bulky goods’, which would improve local consumer choice and trade in the wider retail catchment.”

The letter added that the reuse of the former cinema will contribute towards objectives to revitalise Leigh, attract investment and provide services and amenities which meet a demonstrable unmet need in the area.

The application seeks permission for the change of use of the former cinema to enable the unit to be used for retail purposes.

The proposal will result in a net loss of floorspace at the site, as a result of the removal of the first floor level.

The application works including minor alterations to the existing elevations of the building, the creation of a dedicated service yard, suitable for access by large HGVs, the creation of four oversized spaces for large vans and two disabled bays.

Those changes would result in the net loss of 72 parking bays at the site.

The new Home Bargains store store opened in Leigh last month on the site of the town’s former B&Q store, off Kirkhall Lane.

The Cineworld building application will be considered by planners at Wigan council in the coming weeks.

To find all the planning applications, traffic diversions, road layout changes, alcohol licence applications and more in your community, visit the Public Notices Portal.

U.S. stock futures tumbled sharply on March 2, 2026, as investors reacted to intensified military conflict in the Middle East following joint U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran over the weekend, spurring a flight to safety, surging oil prices and a retreat from risk assets.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) fell more than 500 points, or about 1.2%, while S&P 500 futures (ES=F) dropped around 1.1% and Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ=F) slid 1.4%. The moves pointed to a volatile open for Wall Street, with the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) jumping to a three-month high near 23.7, signaling heightened fear.

The geopolitical shock compounded recent market pressures, including AI-related uncertainties, hotter inflation data and private credit jitters. President Donald Trump indicated military operations in Iran could persist for weeks, raising concerns about prolonged disruptions to global trade, energy supplies and inflationary pressures.

Crude oil prices soared amid fears of supply interruptions. U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate jumped around 8-9% to near $73 per barrel, while Brent crude climbed nearly 10% toward $80. Energy stocks were poised for gains, with North American producers likely benefiting, though broader market selling pressured sectors like airlines after some carriers halted flights in the region.

Gold and silver futures rose as safe-haven demand increased. The 10-year Treasury yield edged higher to around 3.99%, reflecting shifting expectations for borrowing costs amid potential inflation from energy shocks.

The sell-off extended from Friday’s close, when major indexes finished lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 521.28 points, or 1.05%, to 48,977.92. The S&P 500 declined 0.43% to 6,878.88, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.92% to 22,668.21. February proved challenging, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 posting their worst monthly performances since March in recent years, though the Dow eked out slight gains for its 10th straight positive month.

Analysts noted the market’s vulnerability to geopolitical catalysts. Reuters reported futures sliding over 1% as investors priced in a potentially weeks-long conflict disrupting flows. USA Today highlighted hits to airlines and financials from the cloudy global outlook.

Despite the immediate pressure, some optimism persisted for March. Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, in a CNBC appearance, forecasted an up month for stocks historically, averaging 1.0% gains with a 64% frequency over five decades. He suggested the current dip could prove temporary amid ongoing AI momentum and economic resilience.

Trading Economics data showed the U.S.500 index (tracking the S&P 500) dipping to around 6,798-6,806 points on March 2, down 1.06-1.52% in recent sessions, though still up significantly year-over-year at about 16%. The index hit an all-time high near 7,002 in January but has pulled back amid volatility.

Sector rotations favored defensives and commodities. Health care, energy and consumer staples outperformed in recent closes, while technology and financials lagged. Defense contractors gained traction from heightened tensions, with potential for further upside if conflict escalates.

European and Asian markets largely sold off in sympathy, with energy-sensitive regions feeling the pinch. Bitcoin hovered around $66,000 after dipping below $63,000 over the weekend.

Investors eyed upcoming data and Fed commentary for clues on rate paths, though geopolitical developments dominated. The conflict’s duration and scope could dictate near-term direction, with supply chain risks and inflation implications in focus.

Wall Street braced for choppy trading, as the combination of macro uncertainties and fresh Middle East flare-ups tested recent resilience. Long-term bulls pointed to historical March strength and AI-driven growth, but short-term caution prevailed amid the risk-off mood.

As markets opened, attention turned to whether energy and defense gains could offset broader declines, or if the sell-off would deepen on sustained uncertainty.

Australia is preparing to take a firm stance against AI chatbots that fail to restrict access for younger users. Everything is accessible now, especially with artificial intelligence making it even easier and faster in just a few clicks.

The latest reports suggest that regulators may soon require app stores to block AI services that do not implement proper age verification systems by March 9.

Millions in Fines for Non-Compliant AI Platforms

The country’s eSafety commissioner has made the government’s position clear, warning that authorities will use “the full range” of enforcement powers against non-compliant services. This could include direct action against gatekeeper platforms such as search engines and app stores, which serve as primary access points for AI services.

A review cited by Reuters found that out of 50 leading text-based AI chat services operating in Australia, only nine have introduced or announced age assurance measures.

11 platforms reportedly applied blanket content filters or planned to block Australian users entirely. This leaves a substantial number of AI providers without visible safeguards just days before the compliance deadline.

According to Engadget, companies that fail to meet the proposed requirements could face fines of up to A$49.5 million (approximately $35 million), highlighting how seriously regulators are treating child safety in the age of AI.

Back in 2024, Australia announced its plans to create its own AI advisory body amid the rising usage of chatbots.

Global Debate Over AI Content Responsibility

Australia’s crackdown occurs amid a wider international debate over who should protect minors from harmful digital content. In the United States, tech giants like Apple and Google have attempted to shift responsibility onto AI platforms rather than app stores.

Given Australia’s tight social media restrictions for users under 16, enacted last year, the country’s tougher regulatory approach to AI services aligns with national policy priorities and emphasizes child safety as a non-negotiable standard for emerging technologies.

Australia is also concerned about AI’s security risks, especially when chatbots have access to government-owned devices. Last year, the country banned China’s DeepSeek, calling it an “unacceptable risk” to the local infrastructure.

Originally published on Tech Times

Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas asserts that Thailand’s economy remains resilient in the face of escalating Middle East conflict due to stable economic fundamentals and a flexible financial sector. While the turmoil poses risks to energy costs, tourism, and global trade, the government has implemented proactive measures, such as securing significant oil reserves and providing financial support for exporters, to cushion the impact.

The escalating conflict in the Middle East has created significant economic and logistical pressure on Thailand as of March 2026. ^{While the Thai government maintains that the situation is manageable, several key sectors are currently on high alert.}

1. Energy Security and Costs

Thailand is highly vulnerable to energy shocks due to its reliance on Middle Eastern oil.

• Oil Reserves: Thailand currently holds approximately 60–61 days of oil reserves. However, the Ministry of Energy has already suspended oil exports to preserve domestic supplies.
• Price Hikes: Officials have identified Wednesday, March 4, 2026, as a critical tipping point. If global diesel prices exceed $100 per barrel, significant domestic retail price hikes are expected.
• Power Pivot: To reduce reliance on imported Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), the government has ordered coal-fired and hydroelectric plants to operate at maximum capacity.

2. Trade and Logistics

While direct trade with conflict zones like Iran and Israel is a small percentage of total volume, the broader regional impact is severe.

• Shipping Disruptions: The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint for 20% of global oil—is the primary concern. Freight rates and maritime insurance premiums have already spiked by roughly 50%.
• Vulnerable Exports: Canned fruits, rubber products, automotive parts, and machinery are the most exposed sectors.
• Financial Relief: The EXIM Bank of Thailand has introduced an emergency package, including a 365-day debt moratorium and 20% interest rate cuts for affected exporters.

3. Tourism and Aviation

The tourism sector, a vital pillar of the Thai economy, is facing immediate headwinds.

• Market Loss: High-spending tourists from the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) and Israel, who spend an average of 100,000 THB per trip, are seeing massive travel disruptions.
• Airspace Closures: Thousands of flights have been delayed or canceled globally, affecting Thailand’s recovery as a regional hub. Some experts warn of a potential 80% plunge in Middle Eastern arrivals if the conflict persists.
• Opportunity: On a strategic note, if Middle Eastern aviation hubs remain unstable, there is a long-term possibility of flight traffic and investment shifting toward Southeast Asian hubs like Bangkok.

4. Government “War Room” Response

Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul and several ministries have established an Economic War Room to coordinate responses:

• Labor Safety: Monitoring the safety of over 77,000 Thai workers currently in the Middle East (primarily Israel, UAE, and Saudi Arabia).
• Market Diversification: Accelerating a pivot toward “safe-haven” markets in South Asia, Africa, and Latin America to reduce regional dependency.
• Inflation Control: Despite the pressure, the government is attempting to hold its 2026 inflation forecast at 0.3% through the use of the Oil Fuel Fund.

Despite potential inflationary pressures and safety concerns for the approximately 100,000 Thai workers in the region, officials believe the domestic economy is well-equipped to navigate these external volatilities.

Key Points

• Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas emphasizes that Thailand’s strong economic fundamentals and flexible financial sector are capable of managing risks posed by global volatility.
• The conflict is expected to impact several key areas, including energy prices, global trade, supply chains, tourism, inflation, and the labor market.
• To mitigate energy supply risks, the government has secured domestic oil reserves sufficient to meet demand for at least two months.
• Approximately 100,000 Thai nationals working in the Middle East face safety risks, prompting the Foreign Ministry to prepare evacuation contingency plans.
• The tourism sector faces potential setbacks from flight cancellations, airspace closures, and a likely reduction in international arrivals.
• The Finance Ministry is coordinating with financial institutions to provide liquidity support for exporters and importers burdened by rising freight and insurance costs.
• While rising oil prices may drive inflation, the impact is expected to be moderate, with the annual inflation forecast remaining low at 0.3%.
• Security measures have been tightened at the US, Iranian, and Israeli embassies in Bangkok, and Thailand may seek alternative oil supplies from Africa and the Americas if regional tensions worsen.

Additionally, the Finance Minister emphasized the importance of diversifying trade partnerships to reduce dependency on volatile regions. He highlighted ongoing efforts to promote domestic industries and attract foreign investments, ensuring long-term economic growth.

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