Business
US Stock Market Pulls Back as Oil Surge Resumes Amid Ongoing Middle East Conflict
Major U.S. stock indexes retreated Thursday as renewed escalation in the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran drove oil prices higher, stoking fresh investor concerns over energy costs, inflation risks, and global growth headwinds.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined about 350 points, or 0.75%, to trade around 47,450 during midday action, after touching lows near 47,300 earlier. The S&P 500 slipped roughly 0.6% to hover near 6,420, while the Nasdaq Composite eased 0.4% into the low 22,000s, paring some initial drops but holding negative amid broad risk aversion.
Prior Session Rebound
This pullback largely offset Wednesday’s recovery, when the Dow added around 220 points, or 0.47%, closing near 47,800 to end a short two-day skid. The S&P 500 climbed 0.7% to about 6,460, and the Nasdaq rose 1.1% toward 22,200, supported by a brief oil pullback and economic prints that bolstered hopes for Federal Reserve rate-cut flexibility.
Oil and Geopolitical Driver
Thursday’s downturn linked straight to Middle East flare-ups, with the conflict hitting day six amid Iranian warnings on Strait of Hormuz shipping. No full tanker halts materialized, but reports of delayed transits and spiking insurance rates propelled crude futures up 3-4%, pressuring industrials and consumer stocks while lifting energy shares modestly.
Volatility Gauge
Traders adjusted after midweek bets on U.S. naval protection or quiet diplomacy lost steam against blockade rhetoric. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) stayed above 18, down from prior spikes near 22, reflecting ongoing caution short of outright fear.
Sector Rotations
Defensive positioning dominated. Cyclicals like industrials and materials weighed on the Dow, as firms sensitive to fuel costs faced headwinds. Tech megacaps provided some ballast but couldn’t stem overall declines. The Russell 2000 fell 0.9%, prolonging its choppy run.
Inflation Policy Risks
Beyond stocks, oil’s advance—with WTI approaching $76 and Brent in the low $80s from recent sessions—revived inflation worries, potentially crimping the Fed’s easing cycle. Policymakers have highlighted energy as a key monitor, with sustained crude jumps risking a shift from rate cuts if price pressures build.
Earnings and Corporate Snapshot
Mixed corporate signals emerged as earnings tapered off. Energy outfits gained on higher realizations, while defense names saw mild bids from tensions. Consumer discretionary trailed amid pump-price strains, and clean energy stayed tentative despite niche spotlight.
Economic Calendar Ahead
Focus sharpened on Friday’s data, led by nonfarm payrolls to test labor strength. Jobless claims, Challenger cuts, and trade prices could also sway views, with forecasts for 160,000-180,000 jobs and steady 4.1% unemployment.
| Index | Thursday Change | Approximate Close | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow | -350 pts (-0.75%) | ~47,450 | Oil escalation, industrials drag |
| S&P 500 | -0.6% | ~6,420 | Risk-off rotation |
| Nasdaq | -0.4% | Low 22,000s | Tech resilience insufficient |
| Russell 2000 | -0.9% | N/A | Small-cap volatility |
Weekly Volatility Context
The week’s swings spotlight headline sensitivity. The Dow dropped roughly 600 points across three prior sessions before Wednesday’s lift, mirroring rapid responses to Iran news. History shows events like the 2022 Ukraine crisis often yield short dips followed by rebounds without major disruptions.
Hormuz Stakes
This round stands apart due to the Strait’s role in 20% of world oil. Banks like Goldman Sachs lifted short-term WTI outlooks to the high $70s on risk overlays, without extreme calls. Extended strains could pinch profits, spending, and the S&P 500’s 8-10% year-to-date rise.
Bond and Haven Moves
Yields edged up, with the 10-year Treasury near 4.05% versus recent sub-4% dips, as inflation tempered cut bets. Gold held above $2,700 an ounce for safety, while bitcoin eased under $95,000 with risk peers.
Volume and Flows
Energy rose 1.5-2%, financials mixed, utilities cushioned losses. Volumes swelled 15-20% over norms, heavy in futures and hedges.
Retail Tie-In
GameStop traded flat near $24, propped by cash and buyout talk per separate reports, as retail broadly eyed cost squeezes.
Technical Outlook
Volatility persists ahead. De-escalation hints might spark snaps higher; Hormuz flares could extend weakness. S&P support eyes 6,350-6,400, resistance 6,500 in its oil-shadowed monthly band.
Year-to-Date Backdrop
From early-2026 S&P lows near 6,000, indexes built on AI momentum and cuts but now grapple war overlays. National gas averages near $3.15 per AAA erode purchasing power.
Sector Winner-Loser Balance
Producers thrive, but airlines, logistics, and makers suffer. Refiners gain on spreads; chemicals cite costs. Europe’s Stoxx 600 (-0.8%) and Japan’s Nikkei (-1.2%) synced lower.
Trading Close Notes
Afternoon action steadied sans breakout, volumes hinting defense. Payrolls and diplomacy loom for Friday.
Historical Precedent
This dip aligns with shock absorption patterns, banking U.S. production buffers. Oil momentum and Hormuz watch keep nerves taut.
President Trump’s team signals energy security focus, possibly tapping reserves, layering policy angles. Fuel impacts heighten voter awareness.
Business
Banks pay near 2-year high rates on CDs amid tight liquidity
Data from the Clearing Corporation of India showed CSB Bank offered the highest rate at 8.32% for 91 days, followed by Ujjivan Small Finance Bank and Equitas Small Finance Bank, which raised funds at 8.25% for 366 days and 356 days, respectively. Other lenders such as HDFC Bank and IDBI Bank paid 7.6% for 33-day funds.
“While some firming is typical at year-end as banks shore up their balance sheets, this spike goes beyond seasonality,” said VRC Reddy of Karur Vysya Bank. “CD rates have moved to elevated levels, signalling deeper funding pressures rather than just a year-end phenomenon.”

HDFC Bank, the country’s most valuable lender, which has been under investor scrutiny following the sudden exit of chairman Atanu Chakraborty, raised funds at 7.6% for 33 days on March 27, mobilising ₹4,300 crore. Punjab National Bank raised ₹1,175 crore at 7.5% for the same tenor. These rates are well above the 3.25% banks typically pay retail depositors for 30- to 45-day deposits. Most banks pay around 6.25% to 7% for one-year deposits.
“The CD rates do appear high when compared with retail deposit rates or the card rates published by banks, largely because deposit growth has lagged credit growth,” said Anil Gupta, co-group head for financial sector ratings at ICRA.
Overall, HDFC Bank raised ₹23,090 crore during the last fortnight across tenors ranging from 33 to 327 days, paying interest rates between 7.3% and 7.6%. Data showed Axis Bank raised ₹3,500 crore at 7.6% for 92 days, IndusInd Bank raised ₹2,075 crore at around 7.5% for tenors ranging from 91 to 94 days, while Bandhan Bank paid 7.85% for 186 days on a ₹125 crore CD.During the fortnight ended March 31, banks issued ₹1.07 lakh crore of CDs, broadly in line with issuance in the corresponding fortnight last year.
CD rates had earlier climbed sharply during periods of tight liquidity, peaking at about 8.15% between February and March 2024, according to historical data.
Reddy said elevated CD rates reflect a combination of tight systemic liquidity, pressures linked to liquidity coverage ratio requirements, and tactical balance-sheet management amid weak deposit mobilisation.
“In this backdrop, banks have prioritised certainty over cost, relying on CDs and other bulk funding to secure immediate and assured resources,” he said.
ICRA’s Gupta said while CD rates are high, such issuances are typically used to plug short-term mismatches in asset-liability flows. “Certificates of deposit account for only 2.6% of overall bank deposits and do not materially increase the overall cost of deposits,” he said.
Union Bank of India raised ₹24,060 crore, while Punjab National Bank mobilised ₹12,450 crore in the last fortnight of March, offering rates ranging between 6.9% and 7.5%, the data showed.
Banks paid higher rates for shorter-tenor CDs than for longer maturities.
Reddy said CD rates may ease from the March-end spike but are unlikely to soften meaningfully in FY27. “The underlying drivers – tight liquidity conditions, a persistent credit-deposit mismatch and pressure on deposit mobilisation – are structural rather than transient,” he said.
Business
Three Gulf funds agree to back Paramount’s $81 billion takeover of Warner, WSJ reports

Three Gulf funds agree to back Paramount’s $81 billion takeover of Warner, WSJ reports
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Spain’s pork industry seeks salvation from swine fever threat
Brazil, Japan, Mexico, South Africa and the US have stopped importing Spanish pork. Other countries, such as EU members, China and the UK, have taken a more localised approach, only banning pork that originates in the affected area of north-eastern Spain.
Business
Trump invokes religious rhetoric in praise of Iran rescue, drawing criticism

Trump invokes religious rhetoric in praise of Iran rescue, drawing criticism
Business
Benefits and pensions rise as two-child cap ends
Families on some benefits with three or more children will get an average rise of £4,100 a year.
Business
Russia says it downed 148 Ukrainian drones in three hours

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Oil prices open higher as US-Israeli war with Iran continues to disrupt supply

Oil prices open higher as US-Israeli war with Iran continues to disrupt supply
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How a perilous US rescue mission in Iran nearly went off course

How a perilous US rescue mission in Iran nearly went off course
Business
Why the UK economy now lags behind the majority of US states
Forbes Media chairman Steve Forbes gives his take on the growing support for tax cuts in the U.K. and New Jersey’s tightening gubernatorial race on ‘Kudlow.’
In the 1800s, the United Kingdom was clearly the richest country in the world, with consistent, solid economic growth, a focus on science and engineering, plus all the benefits of trade across the oceans. But now the country seems to have lost its mojo. The country’s living standards have fallen far behind those of other developed economies.
Contrary to popular perception, Britain’s GDP per capita (the income generated by the average person) has lagged behind that of the vast majority of the 50 United States plus Washington D.C., last year, according to forecasts in the third quarter of 2025 by the U.S. government, plus recent International Monetary Fund data. Projections are needed as the final annual GDP figures were not published at the time of writing.
When those states (plus Washington D.C.) compared their GDP per capita, the U.K. would have ranked 50th, behind Alabama, which is forecast to have a nominal per capita GDP of $60,265 in 2025. Britain was slightly worse off, at $60,010, according to the latest data from the U.S. government and the International Monetary Fund. Topping the list was Washington DC with $113,369. Analysts note that the figures don’t include the cost of living; however, even with that accounted for, the U.K. still lags significantly behind the U.S. national average.
“If you leave aside Britain’s capital, London, their GDP per capita is much lower,” Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex in New York City, told FOX Business. London has a huge financial center which distorts some of the data. One of the major problems has been the lack of productivity growth, which measures the increase in output per average employee, Chandler, “U.S. productivity increases have been stronger.”
MAJORITY OF UK ENTREPRENEURS SAY BRITISH GOVERNMENT IS ‘ANTI-BUSINESS,’ NEW SURVEY SHOWS

A sign showing the London Stock Exchange. (Toby Melville/Reuters / Reuters)
On average, the U.S. GDP per capita is projected to be $89,599 in 2025, considerably higher than in Britain. The UK also lags Ireland, Switzerland, Singapore, Norway and Germany, to name a few countries, according to forecasts by the International Monetary Fund. “That’s what happens when you destroy innovation, taxes are too high, and regulations are too numerous,” Robert E. Wright, an economic policy historian at the University of Austin, Texas, told FOX Business.
Wright notes there’s also a British cultural tendency toward risk aversion for many reasons. Even if a project or new business succeeds in the U.K., the company will be heavily taxed and then hampered by newly created regulations. “Not only are these barriers not helpful, but they’re also shooting themselves in the foot,” he says. “And they aren’t at the technological frontier.” American businesspeople tend to embrace risk.
UNCLE SAM TO THE RESCUE. TRUMP HELPS OUT THE UK WITH A $350 BILLION TECH DEAL

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer. (Getty Images / Getty Images)
According to surveys, the immediate future looks bleak, suggesting Britain’s economy will not suddenly power back, according to a research report from the analysis firm Oxford Economics. “The U.K. lacks a sustainable growth driver,” the briefing states. That’s because what’s keeping the economy growing, albeit at an extra slow pace, is U.K. government spending, rather than organic growth and innovation from private-sector businesses.
Government spending has resulted in job creation and that has helped mute the headcount job losses in the private sector, according to the Oxford Economics report. “But the boost from the public sector will likely start to fade,” it states. “Given weak private sector demand, we expect the jobless rate will rise further.”
The Oxford report also shows that since the second half of 2023, government jobs have been stubbornly better paid, on average, than those in the private sector. That’s likely to get in the way of encouraging creative entrepreneurs from innovating, experts say.

A Union flag flies near the Elizabeth Tower, better known as “Big Ben”, and the Houses of Parliament in central London on March 6, 2017 (Ben Stansall/AFP Getty Images / Getty Images)
Oxford Economics forecasts a small 1% growth for 2026. But that was forecast before the U.S.-Israel war with Iran, which could lead to likely weaker growth for the U.K. analyst warned.
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Robert Jenrick, the shadow chancellor of the UK Reform Party, slammed the Labour government’s handling of the economy. “We are losing our steel, our car manufacturing, our glass, our ceramics, our chemical industries,” he told the U.K.’s Daily Express. “There are millions of good jobs that rely on these industries, and they simply will not survive if we continue to have energy prices that are five or six times higher than in the United States.”
Business
S&P 500: Prepare For Change (Technical Analysis)
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