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As votes are counted across West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry on Monday, equity traders are preparing for what could be a volatile start to the trading week. Counting for 824 assembly seats begins at 8 am, with early trends expected within the first two hours and clearer leads likely by late morning.

While state elections often trigger sharp intraday moves, analysts say investors should look beyond political headlines and focus on broader macro signals before taking aggressive positions.

Here are 10 things investors should track today before placing trades on Monday

1) West Bengal remains the biggest market trigger

Exit polls suggest the BJP could emerge as the single largest force in West Bengal with around 159 seats, above the majority mark of 148, while the TMC is projected near 127 seats. A stronger-than-expected BJP showing could boost sentiment for infrastructure, railways, power and eastern India capex themes.

Ishan Tanna of Ashika Capital said better Centre-state alignment in Bengal could improve project execution and policy implementation, which may support capex-linked sectors.
2) Assam is largely priced in
Exit polls show the BJP-led alliance retaining Assam with around 90 seats in the 126-member assembly. Since continuity is already expected, analysts do not see Assam alone as a major standalone market trigger.
3) Tamil Nadu and Kerala largely stay away from national issues
The DMK-led alliance is expected to retain Tamil Nadu with around 128 seats, while Kerala could see the Congress-led UDF cross the majority mark. Any surprise deviation here may trigger sector-specific reactions, especially in state-linked infrastructure, ports and industrial names.
4) Not chasing the first opening move
Nitant Darekar of Bonanza said election result days often create headline volatility but not necessarily durable trends. “Most exit poll outcomes appear priced in. Traders should avoid chasing sharp opening moves as these often reverse after the first hour,” he said.

5) Nifty may swing 1-1.5% either way
Paresh Bhagat, Chairman of Mangal Keshav Financial Services, expects contained volatility. “Nifty could move around 1% to 1.5% depending on whether final results are in line with or different from exit polls, but scope for a major surprise looks limited,” he said.

6) Crude oil remains the biggest risk
Brent crude is trading above $113 per barrel amid the Iran conflict and shipping concerns around the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts say this remains a bigger market driver than election outcomes.

Hariprasad K of Livelong Wealth said crude remains “the single most critical macro variable” for Indian markets.

7) Foreign fund flows
FIIs sold Rs 70,100 crore worth of Indian equities in April, marking their tenth straight month of selling. In calendar 2026, foreign investors have already pulled nearly Rs 2.4 lakh crore from Indian equities. If election results fail to improve sentiment, FII selling could continue.

8) Domestic institutions are still absorbing pressure
DIIs invested about Rs 51,000 crore in April, cushioning the impact of foreign outflows. Whether domestic buying continues next week will be closely watched.

9) Technical levels
The Nifty closed Friday at 23,997, just below the key 24,000 mark. Analysts say 23,900-23,850 remains immediate support, while 24,200–24,300 is the first resistance zone. Meanwhile, a breakout above 24,300 could trigger short covering, the index below 23,900 may invite fresh selling.

10) Markets usually move back to global cues quickly
Market expert Ajay Bagga said state election outcomes rarely have a lasting impact. “The market may react for a day or two, but then it goes back to oil prices, FPI flows and the rupee. Those remain the three big variables,” he said.

Indian equities head into the event on weak footing. The Nifty lost 0.73% last week, while the Sensex slipped nearly 1% amid elevated crude prices, foreign selling and geopolitical uncertainty.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)